Weekend Overview: How many reports of Big Brown’s triumph can you stand to read? I’ll limit my commentary on the subject to simply this. Big Brown ran well and got what he needed to move forward. He will be favored in the Classic unless Curlin shows up off a win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I was not all that impressed with the Matron although the winner looks solid enough. The rest of that field was not very good at all. Music Note had a paid workout at Belmont and although this race doesn’t really change what we already knew I have a hard time swallowing Jones’s assertion that Proud Spell already has the 3yo Filly division sewn up. Music Note is having a huge year and deserves a ton of consideration, she also may have some interesting chapters still to write. Charitable Man looks like a good horse and I love the fact that McLaughlin is hoping to give him another race before the Breeders’ Cup. It’s a smart move and he’ll have a good shot in the Juvenile. It was sad to see Tin Cup Chalice lose his unbeaten record at Belmont. He ran a good race but just didn’t have enough. Wild Gams is looking like a solid outsider for the FM Sprint. She took the Presque Ilse Masters. Over in Europe superhorse Zarkava continued her excellent form. She’ll be tought to handle in the Arc.

Performance of the Week: I guess I could give it to Charitable Man. He was not overwhelming but it was an underwhelming week. He broke right on top and once again flashed the fact that he’s got great speed but you have to love how he willingly took back and sat off the pace. He didn’t show any special type of acceleration but good dirt horses don’t really need to. He persevered well in the lane as Flying Pegasus was not stopping at all. It was the perfect learning experience for him. He learned to rate, gave away a ton of ground and showed he has the stomach for a little fight. All that remains is to get some dirt in his face.

Race of the Week: I suppose the Arlington Washington Futurity could qualify as an exciting race. Not only did you have the excellent drama of the stretch ran but then you had to stick around to find out who the judges would place first. I think Terrain was lucky to get the win. He didn’t run as well as the horses who finished in front of him. Although the DQ was more or less justifified you could clearly say that the best horses were either denied a clear run or taken down. Jose Adan should be a fun horse to follow. I’m not sure if he’ll ever be G-1 class but you have to love a horse who finishes with so much vigor and somehow manages to get in front.

Flop of the Week: I think I’m actually going to give it to the connections of Dream Rush. This talented filly is now 0 for 3 this year and while she hasn’t been particularily poor in any of her starts the fact that she has failed to find the winners circle is a shame. Halsey Minor could be congratulated for keeping her in training but what is she doing in the barn of William Phipps and being ridden by Dale Beckner? They need to get her to relax a bit. Those fast fractions in the Presque Ilse Masters were just ridiculous. Why not get someone with a proven track record to train her or at the very least a top class rider to try and harness her speed? So far Dream Rush has been a flop in 2008.

TCR Movers and Shakers: Big Brown leap frogs Curlin again for the overall top spot. Curlin will get it back though barring a major catastrophe in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. The Breeders’ Cup Classic would truely be a decisive race if both were to show up. Music Note is second in the Three Year Old Female Division as she should be and Doremifasollatido shoots all the way to second in the weak Two Year Old Female Division.

The TC Power Rankings still have Curlin on top. In fact Big Brown’s score actually regressed a bit after his win in the Monmouth Stakes. Music Note retook the lead in the Three Year Old Female Division. The rankings suggest that she’s one of the best fillies we’ve seen in the last 10 years aside from Rags to Riches and Ashado. Her 20.54 rating compares very favorably with Silverbulletday. But of course we’ll have to see how it plays out. A few losses and she might look no better than Balance. The Power Rankings also suggest that the Two Year Male Division is extremely wide open. There are 5 horses within 1.05 points of each other. Charitable Man is among them. It will be interesting to see if things stay tight all the way to the Breeders’ Cup or if someone pulls away from the pack.

Tip O’the Cap: Aiden O’Brien’s Septimus won the Irish St Leger giving him a clean sweep of the 5 Classic Irish races. It’s a feat that not even the great Vincent O’Brien managed. No one since 1935 has completed the sweep. O’Brien may have lost a bit of momentum with Henrythenavigators 5th place finish but he’s still have a bang up year the the record for G-1’s in a season is still very much in danger.

KC Handicapping: Well I think I had the right idea. I respected Big Brown’s chances but hated the price. Proudinsky gave it a grand old try but just wasn’t enough horse. Kiss The Kid was a major disappointment as something went wrong with him.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 2(1)-0-1-0 (-$4.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall Record: 591(301)-106-100-86 (-$120.60 -10.2% ROI)

Monmouth Stakes
A very tough weekend to find some good plays. I have to admit the four 2yo Graded Stakes this weekend all have me opting to watch instead of play. Congrats if you’ve got a good solid idea in the 2yo stakes races, I sure don’t. There will likely be little drama in the Gazelle with Music Note laying over that field so it really only leaves this race as the lone headliner that may also be a good betting opportunity for me. The is race is about Big Brown, it only exists because of him and every handicapper who looks at it must decide what to do with him. I think Big Brown has every chance to win this race, most of the contestants are G-2 or G-3 types at best. Big Brown is a bit of a freak and his turf form looked extremely good as well. I’m not, however, going to concede him the race. It’s one of the classic rules of handicapping that you are to oppose favorites who are trying something new. Older horses on turf that should be less than firm is something new for Big Brown. I think if you use him it must be trifecta’s and such, he won’t be any value in the win pool. That’s how I’ll be looking at this race. I’ll oppose him with straight win bets but support him in the exotics. The horse who I think will get quite overlooked is Kiss The Kid. He is actually a phenomenal horse who has the misfortune of being in a poor barn. His campaign has been all over the place yet he still puts in high level performances. I think this race hits him right between the eyes. He’s best on the grass and he’s quite good at Monmouth. He actually finished ahead of Kip Deville on this course. He’s got good tracking speed which will allow him to keep an eye on Big Brown and hopefully he’ll be able to snap his 7 race losing skid. The other horse I’d use against Big Brown is Proudinsky. This play is based on the assumption of less than firm turf. If it comes up firm then I would not use him. But on soft-ish ground Proudinsky is as good as they come. He did not run poorly last time out he simply doesn’t have the same kick on firm ground. I think his form is good he just needs the conditions. Other dangerous horses are Silver Tree, Drum Major and even Ballonenostrikes. They’re good logical horses to use underneath, they should like the course, distance and conditions. If Big Brown totally flops I could see them even winning but I’m actually assuming that Big Brown will run well. That’s why I’ve focused on horses who could possibly step up and beat Big Brown even if he shows up. I don’t like Shakis on soft ground and I’ve never trusted him much anyway. Though if you’re going to play him at any condition it’s 9f on a firm course so if the course is hard he must be regarded as a live contender. I’m not sure if he’ll have enough pace to run at but Shakis is a horse I’ve always had problems reading so I might just toss him in if it’s firm.

Kiss The Kid
Proudinsky (Softer than Firm)
Shakis (Firm)

This could be our first chance to get a last look at some of the big Breeders’ Cup contenders for the juvenile races. I know that’s a pretty bizarre reality since almost every entrant in the Futurity and Matron will have one or two lifetime starts. The way modern thoroughbreds are being trained its become harder and harder to get a clear line on the juvenile form. 10 years ago both juvenile colts and fillies averaged at least 1 more start per entrant going into the Breeders’ Cup. They average about 3.75 starts and I think those numbers could fall even further.

I’m not personally put off by a limited number of starts. Someone has to win the race so the fact that the entire field is becoming less experienced on average is no slight against one particular horse.

I expect that most, if not all, of the horses who do well in the Futurity and Matron will head straight to the Breeders’ Cup so this will be our last chance to form an impression.

Historically the Matron is a much better race than the Futurity in terms of producing eventual BC winners but since both moved to 7f I think they’ve become poor last prep races.

In the last 12 years there have been four two year old Breeders’ Cup winners who came into the event off a sprint race. However all four of those winners (Stevie Wonderboy, Folklore, Joahnnesburg, Tempera) won their BC races around one turn at Belmont. Horses who tried a juvenile race off a sprint when the BC was at a two turn track went 30-0-3-4.

My conclusion is that if the Matron and Futurity runners go straight to the BC off this weekends races they will not be horses I’ll want to use in the win slot. I’d much prefer to see them squeeze in a route race before heading west.

Okay enough with the nonsense. The Breeders’ Cup needs to decide how serious they’re going to be with this Win And You’re In gimmick. It’s gets lots of mention in the press but it’s confusing for someone who may not know much about racing to hear that this race guarantees the winner a spot in the championship event. But then after the race the announcers mention that the winner actually isn’t eligible to compete in the championship.

They need to scrap this system or make it what it ought to be. A free pass for ANY winner of the designated races. There have been 27 Win And You’re In events and 7 of the winners aren’t nominated. That’s a very significant percentage and it is to the Breeders’ Cups benefit to see these horses in the starting gate. For some connections, like Rahy’s Attorney’s owners, they can’t just afford to pay the nomination and all the travel costs to get the horse there. They’re simple people but their horse has earned a shot. And whether or not he could win the Breeders’ Cup race there is little doubt that his presence would make it a better race.

I think fans are tired of seeing so many things in racing that just don’t make sense. Why can’t we try to make racing easy to follow? Why can’t we try to make the buildup to the Breeders’ Cup the most exciting part of the year?

Win And You’re In was and is an advertising gimmick. It’s starting to become a bit of a false advertising gimmick. Win And You’re In races could become hotly contested, full field affairs if a free nomination was given. Not only would it make the Breeders’ Cup races better but it would make the prep races better too.

Weekend Overview: Woodbine Mile weekend is my favorite non-Breeders’ Cup or Triple Crown racing day of the year. I was at the inaugural Woodbine Mile and have missed very few runnings since then. Despite the loss of Kip Deville I was very impressed with the race once again and of course the other races at Woodbine were fabulous. It’s a shame the track was so messy at Belmont. I’m convinced a few horses were compromised in the G-1 events there. Akronism won again at Woodbine on Saturday and might be an outside contender for the BC FM Sprint. In Europe there was a huge upset as the filly Goldikova claimed the scalp of Henrythenavigator. Goldikova has not lost very often and will have a huge chance if seen stateside. This filly is definitely the quality of Banks Hill and Six Perfections.

Performance of the Week: This entire review may be a bit too focused on the Woodbine Mile but it was the biggest race of the weekend and I happened to be very impressed with the winner. Generally when a big favorite like Kip Deville goes down and a longshot wins the race it doesn’t necessarily convince you that the longshot is a real tier 1 horse. But if you watch the Woodbine Mile simply keying on the winner you’ll see that it was a monstrous effort. Early moves at Woodbine have a very low success rate. The stretch is the longest on the continent and if you watch Woodbine on a regular basis you know that any horse who swoops to the lead on the turn is likely to be caught in the last 1/8th. It’s a very difficult move to sustain. But Rahy’s Appeal moved very quickly to the front and opened up and then just when it seemed like Ventura would expose the folly of such tactics he found something extra and stayed on to the line. It was a first rate performance. As good as any at a mile that we’ve seen all year long. I’m not sure if he’ll be as effective away from Woodbine as he is obviously in love with the course but this was not a fluke result that came about because the favorite flopped. Rahy’s Attorney fully deserved this win.

Race of the Week: The Garden City Stakes had a pretty wild finish. In the last 1/8th of a mile 4 different horses had their head in front. Backseat Rhythm eventually prevailed over Pure Clan who really seemed to be struggling with the course. I might favor the latter over the former if they were to rematch in the QE II Challenge at Keeneland. Ariege managed to be one of the leaders at the critical stage but her turn of foot seemed dulled somewhat. She really had to fight to get in front. Perhaps it was the ground of perhaps 8f would really be more suitable. Backseat Rhythm is finally on a roll after an early season slump. Much was expected after hitting the board in the BC Juvenile Fillies but she had been under performing. She’s found her best form now and is going to be a very nice turf filly.

Flop of the Week: It does not shock me that Kip Deville lost the Woodbine Mile. It did shock me that he lost as badly as he did. People are all looking for the reasons why he may have thrown in such a clunker. I’m wondering if it is not related to a few of the issues I raised prior to the race. The Woodbine Mile is not often won by horses coming in directly off a layoff. Recent races seem to be an advantage. Also Woodbine itself is not a course that caters specifically to two turn mile specialists like Kip Deville. Many of the specialists struggle at Woodbine because it’s a unique course. The eventual winner showed a preference for the distance but all those races came at Woodbine itself. Rahy’s Attorney should be regarded with a skeptical eye in his first attempt at a two turn mile.

TCR Movers and Shakers: Tough Tiz’s Sis fired a warning in the Ruffian that she could be a big factor in the Main Track Older Female Division. I many people will just interpret this as a nice form referral for Zenyatta but Tough Tiz’s Sis came closer than anyone to beating the division leader and this was a definite step forward. It was not just a result of facing easier horses. Ventura gave a good account of herself against males in the Woodbine Mile and is now the second ranked Turf Female behind Mauralakana. Champs Elysees moves all the way to second in what is a very wide open Turf Male division.

There were no major moves in the Power Rankings. Slight changes from the horses who ran but I suppose the biggest change came from Kip Deville. His inability to finish in the top 3 saw him plummet out of the top 5 to 10th in the Turf Male division. Midshipman became the highest ranked Two Year Old Male with his narrow triumph in the Del Mar Futurity.

Tip O’the Cap: I have to give to Bobby Frankel who is on a serious roll right now. First Defense and Vineyard Haven took G-1 races last week, after both losing their prior starts and now Frankel gets Champs Elysees a G-1 win. First Defense had been giving up ground in the stretch in every race but Frankel said he figured something out with the horse and it made a big difference. I’ve personally been very harsh on Champs Elysees this year because of his losing attitude but the horse looked good off the bench and even had the stomach to win a photo. That’s a breakout race for this underachiever and Frankel deserves the credit. He finally found the key.

KC Handicapping: It was my best weekend for a very long time. I hit two of the three races analyzed and for the most part the pieces fell into place as I thought. I didn’t foresee Kip Deville losing so badly but I was using the right horses as alternatives. Mile turf races continue to be those that yield the best results for my handicapping.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 6(3)-2-1-1 (+$24.50 +204.17% ROI)
Overall Record: 589(300)-106-99-86 (-$116.60 -9.90% ROI)

Canadian Stakes
Forever Together looms the big favorite and she is a very legitimate choice. I think her last two races were both better than anything the rest of this field has ever run. There are a bunch of intriguing ways to go if you’re looking to fill a trifecta ticket underneath Forever Together but for the win slot I can really only make a case for one horse. Forever Together has performed at a very high level and she’s working well the only things I see against her is an unfamiliarity with the course and the possibility of traffic problems. Neither of those scare me too much. Woodbine is a wide course and other than first time jockey’s moving too soon you don’t see many dislike it. Leparoux is pretty cool so I don’t foresee a premature swoop into action. But back to my alternate, I actually think that Sealy Hill could be set for a lifetime best performance and that should bring her close. She definitely does not have the same gloss on her record that she did last year at this time but I’m convinced she’s a better horse. She ran a close second in this race last year albeit against a weaker group. She has only 1 win in 4 races this year but she’s been taking on a different class of horse. In her first she tried the Jenny Wiley and finished 10th but Vacare and Precious Kitten both faltered badly in that race as well. She came back to Woodbine and ran a very well despite having a rough trip. She was drawn down inside and got shuffled way back off a slow pace. Next out she went Hollywood for a match against Zenyatta. No real surprise that it didn’t work out. Last time she was phenomenal. It was a weak group to be sure but she got a patient ride and swooped to the lead without ever being asked. In fact her pilot never asked her to run at any point and she earned the best turf figure of her life. If she can move forward off of that she’ll give Forever Together a run for her money. I’m quite looking forward to the match up actually.

Sealy Hill
Forever Together

Northern Dancer Turf Stakes
It’s a match up of two of the most lovable turf horses in training. Better Talk Now needs no introduction and Cloudy’s Knight had a most remarkable season last year capped off by taking Woodbine’s premier race. Sadly both look a little past their best but at least with Better Talk Now you know his name will draw a lot of support so perhaps you can find value elsewhere. It’s not that BTN has been getting terrible results but he’s slower than he’s ever been and a few horses in here are simply better at this stage. Actually I’m not sure how Quijano gets beaten. Figures might suggest that he slightly worse than last year but it’s misleading because his last two races came over heavy ground. Hardly any horses look impressive on a bog and he’s always preferred a bit of firmness anyhow. There are two horses I’d really fear while betting Quijano. Champs Elysees might be a well documented flop but he’s also the only other horse in the same class as the likely winner. Frankel is always dangerous especially off the layoff. If he figured this horse out like he did with First Defense then he could set for a big effort. Seaside Retreat is the other horse I’d take a long look at. He has never really run well enough to beat Quijano at his best but perhaps we don’t see him at his best. Seaside Retreat is finally getting back to the level his connections always felt he should be at. He’s a serious horse and he ought to be a nice price.

Quijano
Champs Elysees

Woodbine Mile Stakes
It’s been quite a while since Kip Deville ran a race poor enough to lose to this group but surprisingly the BRISnet figures you’ll see in the PP’s don’t paint a very flattering picture of his efforts at all. Ventura is the logical horse to use against him but I really don’t think she’s as good as he is. The one thing that will help her is she likely won’t get in front so she won’t have a chance to loaf around like she did in the Cash Call. She can chase Kip all the way to the line. Skimming over some past results of this race do embolden me a bit to take a shot against him. Most of the horses who have run well were not coming in straight off the shelf. They all had a recent race. another thing I noticed is that pure two turn milers like Kip Deville have sometimes struggled. I know Labeeb, Touch of the Blues and Good Journey were pure milers who managed to succeed but many of the winners were either better at 7f or 8.5f. My theory is that Woodbine being a unique formation plays differently than traditional mile courses thus negating the usual specialist bias I often trumpet. I think a case case can be made on the behalf of Just Rushing. He’s been a solid horse against worse competition and his figures are improving. He’s certainly the local horse of the moment. But I actually don’t trust him so while I do think he’s got a good shot I won’t use him on top. The longshot I’ve sort of cast my eye upon is Rahy’s Attorney. The best value is usually found when a horse has muddled form because their recent races came at conditions they weren’t totally suited for. Rahy’s Attorney fits that bill. Right after his best lifetime effort which came at 8.5f his connections stepped him up in trip and he’s been running 10f or more and even had one race on polytrack where he is 1 for 8. He is a perfect 5 for 5 in turf races at 8.5f or less and he is winless going further. In fact he’s 1 for 11 at all other conditions, 8-8.5f on the Turf is unquestionably his best trip and he’s actually run some bang up races at those conditions. Not Kip Deville level stuff but still I think his best race certainly puts him in the frame. He’s got good tactical speed and a surprisingly good change of gear. The truth is that Kip Deville is still the most likely winner. He’s got all the tools you want to see and he’s just an efficient horse but this is racing and there is no such thing as a lock.

Kip Deville
Rahy’s Attorney

The Breeders’ Cup Mile is my favorite race of the year. The field is usually full, the horses generally look even on paper and the public almost always highlights a horse that has little chance.

In general there is a lack of appreciation for how specialized a flat mile on grass really is. Is it really that much different from 1 1/16 miles? Or 7 furlongs?

The stats suggest that it is.

From 1996 to the present horses who have not only won at a mile but have also been at their best over a mile have had a distinct advantage in terms of results. During that stated period horses without a win at 8f on the grass went 37-0-2-0 in the Mile. It seems pretty obvious to key horses who have actually won at the conditions but surprisingly horses like Nobiz Like Showbiz, Middlesex Drive and Geri were all well backed and failed to win. Many of these horses even ran good races because they were in top form but they were done in by specialists. Those figures also include North Americans who failed to win a mile turf race around two turns during years when the BC Mile was contested at those conditions. Woodbine and Belmont’s outer Turf course are both one turn miles.

If you use speed figures to determine a horses preference you’ll find that those who did not achieve their highest career Beyer Figure or Racing Post Rating in an 8f turf race went 63-1-4-2 in the Breeders’ Cup. The last horse to buck the trend was Da Hoss in 1996. His highest career figure was achieved in a 8.5f race.

If you isolated only the horses who had both won at 8f on the Turf and had run their highest career figure at the same distance you would have bet on 84 entrants that compiled a record of 84-11-7-10 and returned $252.80. That means you could have turned a profit of $84.80 or 50.48% just from focusing on the horses who specialized at the given surface and distance.

It’s extremely simple but it works year after year. Horses like Peace Rules, Nobiz Like Showbiz, King Cugat, Special Ring, Beat Hollow and Nothing To Lose were all high quality animals and they attract the public money but they weren’t mile specialists and they were always up against it when facing true milers.

Weekend Overview: Saratoga draws to a close with Alan Garcia and Kieran McLaughlin at the top of the heap. Who would have bet on that six weeks ago? No connections we’re totally dominant like in past years with Pletcher or Mott but McLaughlin came out with a two win advantage over Pletcher. Curlin was the big story of the weekend with his workmanlike score in the Woodward. My personal take on his race was that it was a good average performance. His race should not be diminished because of the proximity of Past The Point. That horse simply ran well above himself. The good news is that we may not have to rely on our impressions of Curlin in order to compare him to Big Brown. Jackson is now officially reconsidering the Breeders’ Cup and I think it basically means we’ll see him there. Two year olds were the other big story of the weekend. Mani Bhavan, Stardom Bound and Vineyard Haven became the first G-1 winners of this crop. I’m not sure that any of them aside from Stardom Bound will be good enough to challenge for year end honors. I was rather shocked to see Gio Ponti beaten at Del Mar but I think you might be able to blame the margin on his trip. He’s still the best three year old turf horse out there.

Performance of the Week: I think the best performance or perhaps the biggest out-performance of the week belonged to Hostess. She could not have been more impressive in the Glens Falls Handicap at Saratoga. She simply exploded when asked and went on to a career best performance. She hardly ever wins, this being only her fourth victory in twenty starts but she might be developing into a longshot contender for the BC Filly and Mare Turf. I think even Mauralakana would have had trouble with her on Sunday.

Race of the Week: I think you just need to watch the Hopeful for the spectacle it was. Sometimes races that are won wire to wire are pretty drab but this was a pretty interesting contest. Vineyard Haven was pretty much the only horse to get a clean run. Cribnote was likely the best horse in the race but he ended up in the cheap seats around the far turn after bolting for no apparent reason. Munnings ran a very good race as well after losing all chance at the break. It’s the kind of race you need to watch 10 times to really be able to evaluate each horse that ran.

Flop of the Week: Neither of McLaughlin’s big stakes horses ran well this week but I think Divine Park’s flop was worse than Lucky Island’s. At least Lucky Island made a real try to recover from that debacle of a start. He came to play it just wasn’t his day. Divine Park on the other hand retreated pathetically and was never in the race at any point. He is quite overrated and needs to stick to a mile.

TCR Shakers and Movers: Curlin goes back atop the standings for the first time since the week of July 28th. But Big Brown is not far behind and will likely retake top spot when he runs again on September 13th. Things will likely remain tight between those two until after the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Lucky Island really blew his chance to take over as the best active sprinter in the east. First Defence moves ahead of him and a few others into 5th in the Male Sprinter division. Mani Bhavan stayed atop the Two Year Old Female divisional standings but Vineyard Haven was only able to get third place behind the undefeated pair of Run Away And Hide and Azul Leon.

Curlin stayed in first place in the Power Rankings and improved his score slightly to 47.77 that gives him almost a 7 point advantage over Big Brown. Benny The Bull’s defection means the sprint division is wide open and it contains very few top class horses.

Tip O’the Cap: I think I’ll give the nod to Alan Garcia for taking the Saratoga jockey’s title. It’s the toughest meet to win and the youngster outdid some of the biggest names in the sport. His career has really moved up a notch this year. The thing about Garcia is also that he is not typecast into riding a certain type of horse. He can win going short or long on turf or the dirt. He can ride closers or speed and has no problem coming up the inside. He’s a well rounded rider who still has the hunger of a young man. Too often you see many of the older more established jocks taking the “favorites route” three wide all the way around. It’s nice to see someone willing to take the risk of coming from anywhere and having success with it.

KC Handicapping: Took the easy score with Curlin and almost had the cold exacta in the woodward but unfortunately that didn’t pay for totally missing the Kent Stakes. I was completely off base in that one. Neither of my picks ran at any point.

Saratoga draws to a close and it was the worst meet ever for me personally. I ended with 75 winners just worse than my 78 winners last year but in terms of profitability I was 28% worse. I nearly broke even last year with my 78 winners and was no where close this year with my 75. I only had one winner that paid more than $20, my average winner was $6.10. You simply can’t make money doing that.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 4(2)-1-0-1 (-$5.30 -66.25% ROI)
Overall Record: 583(297)-104-98-85 (-$141.10 -12.10% ROI)