As I mentioned in the Weekend Review it was quite a formful weekend. Favorites and short priced horses dominated the 16 grade 1 and 2 races this weekend. Favorites won 50% and finished in the money in 75% of the races. All the winning favorites will likely be well covered on Breeders’ Cup day. It doesn’t take much imagination to stick with the horses who have big reputations and are coming in off a win.

There is usually much better value to be found if you focus on the favorites who lost their last prep races. As I mentioned a few months back, beaten favorites in prep races do splendidly well on their returns to the Breeders’ Cup. With just a few refining criteria you could have made 110% ROI since 1996 just from betting these horses to win.

Let’s take a look at the 8 losing favorites this past weekend and speculate a bit on their chances.

Regal Ransom - Beaten in 8th in the Norfolk, he was a bit of a false favorite and is unlikely to run in the BC Juvenile.

Stalingrad - Finished second as the favorite in the Kelso. If he goes to the BC Mile he would surely be 20/1 or more but he is not without a chance. He has never won a stakes race so one might question his class but two starts back he ran Red Giant to a neck and obviously that’s as good a form reference as you could ask for these days. He has only run a two turn mile once and he won it easily. Interestingly enough it was also his only start in California.

Mauralakana - She still might be the favorite for the BC FM Turf depending on which Europeans come over but at least now the price will be better. She along with Wait A While are definitely America’s best hopes in the FM Turf. Anything resembling a decent price on her must be taken.

Ginger Punch - She may be as high as 4 or 5/1 and I think it’ll represent very good value. Of course she’s up against it when attempting to beat Zenyatta but she has decent form on synthetics and is a very good horse on her day. Her loss in the Beldame isn’t really that bad. She has never been ideally suited to wiring a field. The last time she tried it Zenyatta beat her handily. Here she lost it late to Cocoa Beach. If she can sit behind a few horses she’s a much better filly. Don’t dismiss her.

Lucky Island - He ran a dull 6th in the Vosburgh and will definitely skip the Breeders Cup. We all know he’s a better horse than he showed on Saturday. There might be some value down the line with him.

Honest Man - He put in a rather dull effort in the KY Cup Classic. It would be a surprise to see him try synthetics again so soon. The BC Dirt Mile would be his target if any but I don’t expect him.

Street Boss - Like Mauralakana he is still likely going to be the favorite for his BC race despite the loss but for those who really want to back him the good news is that he is no longer in danger of being odds on. He really is the best horse in the Sprint so obviously he’s got a massive chance.

Spring House - One of the most disappointing performers of the weekend when 4th in the Clement Hirsch. His participation in the BC turf has to be in real doubt but he may offer some value in the BC Marathon. His connections had considered it as an alternate target and perhaps now it’ll become his primary target. There are some tough horses like Sixties Icon and Fairbanks pointing to this race but if Spring House likes synthetics he should fit in very well.

Henrythenavigator - Okay so he didn’t run in any American stakes races but he was a beaten favorite in a G-1 and he is most likely headed to the Breeders’ Cup. Which race he contests is the real question. He was always going to be a price in the Classic because of the quality in that race and because of the questions surrounding him. The reality is that his chances are no worse in the Classic because of the loss. If he chooses the Mile he might not be favored which was an unthinkable prospect a few months ago. The reality is that he’s got a fabulous chance in the Mile and is certainly capable of beating any miler in the world.

It’s possible that as many as 6 beaten favorites will be running in the Breeders’ Cup in a months time. They will definitely be worth keeping an eye on.

Weekend Overview: It was a very formful weekend as favorites went 16-8-4-0 in all the G-1 and G-2 races. In fact in those 16 events there were only 2 horses who won at odds longer then 5/1. It was not a great week for bettors who were looking for upsets but for those in fantasy contests or those simply hoping to see high quality match ups from in form horses it could not have gone much better. Zenyatta and Curlin kept the ball rolling with a pair of good performances. Zenyatta equalled high highest career Beyer figure (108) although figures have to be suspect on the new Pro Ride surface. Curlin seemed business as usual. Both the visual aspects of his races this year and his speed figures suggest solid high class performances but not brilliance. Mauralakana, Ginger Punch and Street Boss all had their winning streaks broken but they ran well and should be setup nicely for the Breeders’ Cup. Red Giant confirmed the talent he showed last year and all of the sudden he might be America’s best turf horse. Grand Couturier won the Joe Hirsch in impressive style but how well will he run on firm ground? Wait A While proved once again that at Santa Anita she is as good as anyone. Stardom Bound will likely be an odds on favorite on Breeders’ Cup day as she annexed the Oak Leaf in facile fashion. Although Midshipman lost I think he has marked himself as the top juvenile for the time being. He should come a great deal from this race. What is up with the Sprint division? Results are were all over the place with Black Seventeen and Cost of Freedom beating the likes of Street Boss, Idiot Proof, In Summation, Lucky Island and Fabulous Strike. Meanwhile Fatal Bullet has still never lost a 6f race and he’s won on 3 different synthetic surfaces. Lost in the shuffle a bit was Tam Lin who is become quite a useful miler. The only horse who has beaten him over the distance in America is Kip Deville.

Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: There was a lot of movement in the rankings as you might suspect on such a huge weekend. Curlin takes top spot back from Big Brown and actually opens up a bit of a lead. Big Brown will need to win the Classic or finish no worse than second with Curlin out the frame in order to get the top spot back. For the Curlin camp they just need to be focused on finished ahead of Big Brown. Zenyatta remains firmly entrenched in 3rd overall and atop the Main Track Older Female division. Ginger Punch could still reel her in with a win in the Ladies Classic but on the evidence of this weekend it might be a tough ask. With so many odd results in the Male Sprinter division recently it has left Street Boss alone at the top. Benny The Bull is technically right behind him but since we know he’s done for the season Street Boss effectively has a huge lead on all active sprinters. Mauralakana maintained her lead in the Turf Female division but Wait A While closed quite a bit of ground and it now up to 4th. Despite a loss to Street Hero, Midshipman still outranks him in the Two Year Old Male division. A rematch in the Juvenile should decide the proper order.

Power Rankings: Curlin is dominating the Power Rankings leaderboard with a massive 50.86. Only Invasor has been ranked that highly at the end of a season. Curlin still has a chance to earn an even higher ranking with a win in the Classic. Big Brown and Zenyatta are actually ranked pretty closely together in second and third. According to the rankings Zenyatta is just about as good as Azeri was during her Horse of the Year campaign. Red Giant sprung to the head of the Turf Male division. His two for two season has been impressive enough to see him outrank Grand Couturier. Stardom Bound and Midshipman are the top juveniles and it likely comes as no surprise. Despite losing Street Boss has opened up a huge lead on the other active sprinters. Most of his main challengers like Lucky Island and First Defence performed very badly. Cocoa Beach made a huge leap in 5th in the Main Track Older Female division. She is still well behind Zenyatta but she looks to have a promising future. You can check the entire Power Rankings by clicking on the bolded header.

Performance of the Week: I have to give it to Red Giant for his phenomenal race in the Clement L Hirsch. He set a new world record for 10f on the grass, breaking the old mark by 0.24 seconds. He also earned the co/top Turf Beyer Speed figure for the season (112). It was a lot to ask of this horse, who got a late start to the season, to come out to California and put up a performance like that. He showed a lot of his sires grit and determination through the lane. Some would say Out of Control actually ran the better race because he was closer to the pace but I preferred Red Giant’s effort partly because he won and partly because of the unknowns surrounding him. He had just one 9f start and had never been on ground that firm. Pletcher may or may not be thinking BC Turf with him. 10f is as far as he’s gone although he’s never been worse than second in any turf race. Giant’s Causeway’s progeny have done well on synthetics so the Classic might also be an option.

Race of the Week: It does not get much more exciting than the Norfolk. It was a bit of a messy race but we saw great performances by four different horses and there was little to separate them at the line. Midshipman ran very well despite being a little green and despite his preparation which I thought was too stiff coming off his last race. Street Hero had a really bumpy trip, he was constantly steadying and re-rallying. He showed quite a bit of heart. Del Conte nearly took them wire to wire on a track where few horses do. Believe In Hope was flying up the rail to complete the four horse photo. We can only pray the juvenile is as exciting.

Flop of the Week: There are a few to choose from. Lucky Island, First Defence, Idiot Proof and Dancing Forever all ran very poorly but they could perhaps pin some blame on the surface. Spring House had very little excuse for tanking in the Hirsch, he even finished behind Transduction Gold, a horse he handled easily last time. The distance might not have been his favorite but this was a very very poor performance and it will likely keep him out of the Breeders’ Cup Turf. They might try an easier race like the Marathon with him. You can’t blame him for not matching Red Giant and Out of Control who both ran massive races but he showed nothing at all and was dull in 4th.

Tip O’the Cap: Myung Kwon Cho is best known for starting hopeless longshots in well above their heads, that is if he is known at all. He does not have many starters since he only trains the horses he owns and he generally does not win at a very high percentage. But this small time owner/trainer is a big fish all of the sudden thanks to a pair of crack juveniles Palacio de Amor and Street Hero. Both will go to the Breeders’ Cup as real contenders after Street Hero won the Norfolk and Palacio de Amor finished second in the Oak Leaf. Although he broke his maiden while winning the Norfolk, Street Hero was only beaten 3/4 of a length in third in the G-1 Del Mar Futurity. Palacio de Amor now has a pair of second place finishes in G-1’s behind Stardom Bound. So from 9 combined starts Cho has milked a G-1 win and 3 G-1 placings. Hopefully he has a lot of success with this talented pair.

KC Handicapping: I thought I had some good analysis this week but I lacked the one thing that would have made it all successful: Winners. It was a weekend dominated by favorites and in most races I was playing longshots. At least my banker of the week, Wait A While, came through for me. The Joe Hirsch was really the only race that I was completely out to lunch on. Despite the terrible advice I give out in this space on a regular basis I’m not totally useless. In fact I’m currently 50th overall in the Breeders’ Cup NHC Qualifier. It’s not enough to win anything but it is encouraging since it’s my first try with the handicapping contest format. Now that I’ve shared my moderate success I’m sure I’ll plummet out of the top thousand.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 14(9)-2-4-0 (-$20.60 -73.57% ROI)
Overall Record: 607(311)-108-104-87 (-$145.20 -11.96% ROI)

Beldame Stakes
I’m not sure how many times I can lose while trying to oppose Ginger Punch. Suffice it to say she’s beaten me more than she ought to. I’m not really interested in this race as a betting affair and if the track is a total mess I’m sure not how much it’ll mean for the Breeders’ Cup either. Ginger Punch ought to win, especially since Unbridled Belle has failed to build on her stellar 2008 debut. Lemon Drop Mom is genuine and likely should win one of these days but she’ll likely be 3/1 and not worth it. I’m interested in seeing how Cocoa Beach handles this class but the slop is a total unknown and it inclines me against playing her. I’m just watching this one but I think the trifecta might be the same as the Personal Ensign.

Flower Bowl Invitational
Only 5 horses line up to oppose mighty Mauralakana. Her lone loss this year came to Hostess who just happens to be coming off a career best effort but the soft turf really does hinder Hostess. She has never been as good on soft going and she also happens to be 0 for 7 at Belmont. It’s hard to justify backing her against the favorite. I think Jade Queen has seen better days and is up against it here. So that leaves 4 horses, in a 6 horse field. That’s decisive handicapping for you! I don’t really feel a great need to try and beat Mauralakana. She’s the best horse and likely ought to outclass the others. Dynaforce almost beat Mauralakana but has gotten steadily worse since then. She moves up on an off course but I’d still rather have a consistent winner than a consistent loser. Communique has come into the best form of her life but I’m always wary taking older horses who suddenly got dramatically better then were laid off. Sometimes the improvement is down to the momentum of that form cycle and when things restart the horse does not immediately pick up right where they left off. That basically leaves Palmilla and depending on the price maybe I’ll fool around with her. Her form is getting better and her conditioner is very good at getting improvements from his horses. Second off a layoff she might be ready for another step up and that makes her dangerous. Good enough to beat Mauralakana? Maybe. Certainly good enough to beat everyone else.

Mauralakana
Palmilla

Vosburgh
It’s a great field without a real minnow but I think I’m going to resist the temptation to look at interesting ways to play this race. Fabulous Strike is a monster and if he shows up he’ll beat this field by 3 lengths. Others in this field have speed but he has more speed. He’s going straight to the front and that will burn out horses like Black Seventeen and First Defence. 6f on dirt is simply his best game and I’m not sure if any horse in North America is up to his standard. J Be K and Kodiak Kowboy will find older horses a lot tougher than what they’re used to. Kodiak has some class so he should be staying on to the finish but he’s not a 6f horse and these sprinters will simply outrun him. Rockerfeller is cheap in my opinion, he doesn’t have the class. Lucky Island would be the horse I’d fear if I was in the Fabulous Strike camp. You can simply throw out his last race. At his best he’s an able and agile stalker who loves Belmont and is capable of putting up a big figure. He’ll be the horse trying to reel in Fabulous Strike and for the right price I just may back him to do it. I really have no idea how the public is going to bet this race but I’ll likely be looking at an exacta with Fabulous Strike and Lucky Island as well as playing the best price in the win pool.

Fabulous Strike
Lucky Island

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational
I think this field is a disappointment overall and underlines the lack of depth in this division stateside. You can bet O’Brien wishes he had a horse ready for this spot. Almost any European challenger in this race would go straight to the head of the market, especially given the terrible weather we’re supposed to get. But enough commenting on who isn’t here we are left with the task of choosing from those who are. I think the race is wide open because the logical favorite, Dancing Forever, has a noted preference for firm ground and this will not be to his liking at all. On firm ground he beats this field, on soft ground he is allowance caliber. Although I have him in some fantasy contests I really don’t like his chances at all. The soft ground specialist is Proudinsky but he’s got a few question marks as well. He is untested at this distance and he wheeling back quickly for Frankel who usually doesn’t make moves like that. I this race where 9f Proudinsky might be a single but at longer distances he’s vulnerable. He has run some decent efforts at 10f but he’s not a bankable stayer. Grand Couturier will stay the distance and easily but his three best races have all come at Saratoga. He did run third against much tougher in this race last year so you have to include him but I just don’t trust him fully. Presious Passion is the ultimate hit or miss horse. He only seems to win when the public ignores his chances. In his last 12 races he is 4 for 7 when 10/1 or more and 0 for 5 when 10/1 or less. I can imagine that a good amount of hair has been lost as a result of his exploits. I suspect the public might ignore him in this spot so he might be dangerous. He has shown an affinity for soft courses and he does like this distance if left alone. He’s dangerous, but like Proudinsky, he is far from the type of horse you could take a stand with. I’ll toss in another horse who I think has a shot and that is Strike a Deal. One has to believe that he is good enough to win a race like this although he’s never won anything more than a listed stakes race. He has done well at Belmont and on soft courses. I’m not sure what tactics will be employed on him since he seems capable of any scenario but I suspect he’ll try to stalk Presious Passion and not let him get away like he did at Monmouth.

Proudinsky
Presious Passion
Strike A Deal

Jockey Club Gold Cup
Racing fans seem to get really drawn into the concept of a sure thing and because of the line in the sand type pronouncements they make it biases their judgment of the race itself. Take this race for example. Curlin is supposed to win, some would say he cannot lose. Even a win in the fashion of his last victory would unsettle fans. Unless of course the horse who runs him hard is Mambo In Seattle. But let me go on record and say this. Curlin is a very good horse and he could very well lose this race and still be a very good horse. No one is invincible and this race could be a potential stumbling block for the champ. There are two things he has to be very careful of. An improving three year old, namely Mambo In Seattle. This was the time of year the Curlin experienced a real breakout and its entirely plausible that this horse could as well. And also you always have to respect the pace. Wanderin Boy is likely the lone speed and speed often holds well in the slop. It just so happens that Mambo in Seattle and Wanderin Boy are the two best horses opposing Curlin and cases can be made for both. Mambo In Seattle has never been worse than second in a route race on the dirt. This is another big step up for him but this is the time of year that 3yo’s prove themselves capable. The only thing that worries me about him is that he’s been on the go since April and has basically been getting better with every race. His form sequence recently culminated in a lifetime best performance that was an absolute gut wrencher. He missed last weeks Super Derby because he needed the extra week. It won’t shock me if he runs well, I actually really hope he does but my money won’t support him in the win pool. Wanderin Boy is the horse I prefer. I know I’ve tried to get him home in a few big route races over the years and it hasn’t happened for me yet but there are really so many things to like. He is definitely the most brilliant horse in the race aside from Curlin. His best career race is probably good enough to severely test the champ. He is the most likely pacesetter and Timber Reserve is the only other horse with the natural speed to challenge him. Others could be taken out of their element to challenge but likely, given the 10f distance and that all eyes will be on Curlin, Wanderin Boy should have things his own way. He is an effective horse in the slop and in general speed holds on the slop and you have to love the Zito/Garcia combo. They’ve already taken down Big Brown with a wire to wire score at Belmont. They could do the same to Curlin with what is a much better horse. The other notable thing about Wanderin Boy is that the only horse to beat him at Belmont is Bernardini. He’s better at Belmont than he is at Saratoga and at the Spa he was only about 3 lengths behind Curlin. I also see a slight negative factor with Curlin. In the Woodward most will agree that it was not a lights out kind of performance. I think he ran better than it looked but it was a more taxing effort than his first few races of this campaign. If you look at the worktab you’ll notice that he was back breezing just 9 days after the race. Look around at all the big stakes this weekend. It’s very rare to find a horse who was sent back to work so quickly after a race (Midshipman is another) It could be a sign that the race took nothing out of him or it could be a slight mismanagement that could cost him in the final furlong. We’ll shall have to wait and see. I know for myself that Curlin need only finish third or better to prevent degrading his reputation in my eyes. I see him as the most likely winner but a bit vulnerable. If you’re playing multi-race exotics you surely must use Curlin but since this is a win only selection I’ll go with the value and let the chalk win without me.

Wanderin Boy

Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship Stakes
It’s a three horse race and most likely only of them will go to the Breeders’ Cup Turf. Spring House has been meant for the Turf all year long and I’ve been trumpeting his chances since his first start of the year. He may not be Duke of Marmalade class but he loves Santa Anita and the Duke likely isn’t coming. That said this race will be tough for him because he’s facing a pair of genuine contenders at a distance that is likely the lowest point of his effective range. Spring House clearly wants 11 or 12f and at 9f or less he’s much less horse. 10f is a new distance for him, he did try it once but that was back when he was a shadow of the horse he is now. Red Giant and Out of Control are both very good horses at 10f but are untested beyond. For Red Giant you also have to throw in the uncertainty of shipping to sunny California. All of his races have been in the east and he’s shown an affinity for ease in the ground. Pletcher clearly wants to see if he is BC Turf material but he likely has to win or run a close second to be considered. As last year drew to a close I was convinced that Red Giant would be a major player but he only managed his first start of the campaign at Saratoga. Now I’m struggling to get a line on how good he really is and if he will like the firm turf. Certainly he has not disliked any turf he has ever run on but it seems as though each time he gets good ground or worse he runs a new career high. A minuscule point like that may be all that separates him from the other two who look equal on paper. Out of Control is the last of the trio but is as capable as any of them. He might have a tactical speed advantage on the other two but his recent form is not as good. I can forgive the Woodward but truthfully he had never run that poorly on dirt before and he is probably too good a horse to be riding a 5 race losing streak. He will present the most value at the window of the trio but he’s got questions to match it. If you want to look beyond the obvious you have to settle on You Got Me Rocking. There have been some famous thefts in Californian route racing by lower class horses who get the lead to themselves and simply fail to stop. The Tin Man early in his career, Star Over The Bay, Leprechaun Kid and more recently Boule D’or. Mike Mitchell has a good feel for this kind of larceny and you can be sure that’s what he’s thinking here. I may just hedge myself against that as well as using the most obvious contender.

Spring House
You Got Me Rocking

Lady’s Secret Stakes
This race may start a string of winning heavy favorites. This race and the next 4 stakes will have heavy favorites who do not look very vulnerable. It might make multi-race exotic payouts very low. One thing you can count on though. If Zenyatta loses a lot of tickets are going to get ripped because no one has ever beaten her and the horse who came the closest to doing it just retired. She was also incidentally the defending champ in this race. The biggest storyline is the first head to head meeting between Hystericalady and Zenyatta. Zenyatta of course has already beaten Ginger Punch and Tough Tiz’s Sis so Hystericalady is the last major rival she has to deal with. If Zenyatta wins again the Ladies Classic could be a bit anti-climatic since she will have already beaten every single one of her major competitors. Hystericalady is no pushover and I truly hope she handles the surface so we’ll be treated to a genuine tussle. Hystericalady has historically had problems with synthetic tracks. Not that she runs poorly but she’s never won in 4 tries. If this synthetic is received like other synthetics it will be hard to see her beating Zenyatta. I think what I’d do is take Zenyatta for a business as usual performance or play a totally contrary result. Santa Teresita is essentially a poor man’s Hystericalady. It’s hard to envision her as the up setter. The last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Santa Anita the mighty Sightseek ran 4th to Adoration. In this years Lady’s Secret we have a horse who recently won the Adoration stakes. Wake Up Maggie may be an aptly named individual for she did seem to wake up suddenly and dramatically in the Adoration stakes. She had campaigned only on the grass during her time in America and had achieved mixed results. But Canani decided to switch to the polytrack last time and she was phenomenal. If you’ve seen Zenyatta’s last race you must have noted Model, who made a huge move only to be run down by the Amazon. Model’s next race was against Wake Up Maggie in the Adoration and it was no contest. Maggie was the best by a mile. She had a similar trip to the favorite, Model, but she easily out kicked her once they began running. She earned a 100 Beyer figure for the effort and that puts her right in the mix here. Maybe she is a top class synthetic horse who just hasn’t had the chance to show it. I highly doubt Canani is running in here to try and get some easy third place money. He can make more than $27k in an abundance of places. I think he wants to know where his filly really belongs. No better place to test that out than here. It’s true it would appear as if the world is ending if Zenyatta loses to Wake Up Maggie. I’m sure farmers would rush out to make sure the pigs had not flown from their cage but racing is sometimes unpredictable and no matter how many times I look at it I still can’t see how Adoration won that Distaff.

Zenyatta
Wake Up Maggie

Ancient Title Stakes
Sprints are usually the races where you can find wacky results but this one looks straightforward to me. Esperamos, Sailors Sunset and Idiot Proof are the main pace factors. I don’t think Esperamos is good enough to win unless he gets in front all by himself. I suspect he wont have the speed to accomplish that. Idiot Proof ought to be the pace survivor the second assault to his lead will come from In Summation. Known by all as a synthetic track sprinting specialist. He shuts off well and has a nice quick turn of foot. The question with him is how worried are you that he failed to really pass anyone of note in the O’Brien. I know 7f is not his cup of tea but he tried to come with his run and could get past Barbecue Eddie at any point. He actually lost ground steadily from the second call all the way home. He looked tired and I’m not a fan of the fact that he’s being put right back in here. I suspect that Idiot Proof will be able to rebuff his challenge but the horse who is the real danger is Street Boss. 5 wins in a row and reminding us more of Kona Gold with each day. Kona was a late running sprinter in his early days but he gradually added speed and in turn more consistency. This guy has found consistency without adding any speed at all. He tempts fate each time he plummets to the back and rallies 8 wide but so far it’s working for him. He should be nice and fresh for this race having not run since July but will Headley have him fully cranked? I actually think that Idiot Proof will be good enough to hold him off and claim his first win in an unlucky season. Idiot Proof is a real 6f specialist and he’s got a tactical speed advantage as well as a nice recent tightener on the Turf. Sailors Sunset is probably the only good price alternative if you feel like using someone other than the big 3. He doesn’t win often but if he gets a good trip and doesn’t chase the pace too hard he is certainly capable of beating one of the big 3 and juicing up the trifecta payoff.

Idiot Proof

Oak Leaf Stakes
The question on every one’s mind must be, “can anyone beat Stardom Bound?” In all likelihood this is a filly in the tradition of Sweet Catomine and Halfbridled. They looked like the best and this race confirmed that they were the best. The price will be a lot shorter than I’m comfortable with considering the surface is new and it’s her first time around two turns. I would likely stay out of the win pool in this race because deep down I believe Stardom Bound will win a shade easily but discipline prevents me from taking such a poor risk:reward scenario. In a search for alternatives my eye is always drawn first to the maidens because the logical question I ask is “why are they in here?” I think Oro Blanco’s trainer is simply out of touch with reality so toss that one. Magic Roberta goes for a more dangerous conditioner but she essentially ran to the same level twice and that wasn’t good enough to win any maidens. Black Magic Mama on the other hand might be an interesting play. She broke a touch slow but was rushed up to sit just behind the lead. She came through on the inside and as she was passing the front runner she shifted out a bit. She was better than everyone but the winner but was DQ’ed to 6th. I think she’ll like being away from the rail and she should be able to dictate or stalk the pace from out there. She might be the one Stardom Bound has to reel in once the real running starts. I think one also has to respect Montana Fields. The stretch out should suit her well and she did nearly get the beating of Stardom Bound in her debut

Yellow Ribbon Stakes
I have been waiting patiently to play Wait A While on this course for quite some time now. I kind of hoped she would not run here until the Breeders’ Cup to obscure her form a bit but you have to take the opportunities as they come. I think Wait A While crushes her foes in the race and is maybe the most confident single of the weekend. Black Mamba will take some money but I think she is simply not as good as Pletchers former champion. Some feel that Wait A While is not the horse she was, I disagree I feel that circumstances and campaign choices have muddied her form a bit. I think we see her back to her absolute best. Black Mamba is the best of the rest and should hold second but I would also use Solva underneath Wait A While to hopefully get some value. Solva hasn’t won since last February but she has been done no favors by running in 9f races. She clearly wants to go longer and she’s had some good races at 10f. In fact if Wait A While was out I’d be very tempted to use her over Black Mamba.

Wait A While

Goodwood Stakes
A fitting cap to what promises to be a brilliant day at Santa Anita. A very classy field has lined up for this, a most important Classic prep. 4 of the last 12 Classic winners prepped in the Goodwood and there is a good chance that the winner is among this group as well. It’s tough to really get a feel for which horses will be set to run their best race and which are truly saving themselves for the classic. Logic dictates that most of the longshots really need to win in order to take the next step but horses like Well Armed, Surf Cat, Tiago and Mast Track are the classy ones that every handicapper has to deal with. Not all of them can win or even run in the frame. So someone needs to underperform. I had really been hoping to play the quick and agile Mast Track against Well Armed but with the 11 post his chances are severely compromised. Mast Track has never run a poor race on synthetics and he has been working up a storm in the morning. I think if he could get in front of Well Armed he’d have a nice tactical advantage but with his post I’m only looking at minor placings. Well Armed is the horse to beat but he is not unbeatable, he’s got class but he does not stand above the field. Anything less than 3/1 is poor value in my book. He’s got a great post to attend the pace from. Tiago looks like a great play to me despite the lengthy spell on the bench. If there is one thing we know about him it’s that he loves 9f. He is more effective at 9f than any other distance. I suspect he might be a better horse on dirt than synthetics but he has proven capable just not as brilliant. The pace ought to be on the quick side of steady and I think it will be fair to all runners. The track itself is a bit of a question mark but I’m assuming that form will hold. Slew’s Tiznow looked excellent in his comeback at Del Mar but this is a big step up for him and I’m not sure he’ll be able to handle the class level at this point in his career. I’m totally against Spirit One, I thought his last was a fluke and he’s up against it here. Another longshot I might like to use underneath is Zappa. He did not run poorly in the Pacific Classic and might have done better if not for some traffic. I actually suspect that this race will look quite a bit like the Pacific Classic with Tiago playing the part of Go Between and Well Armed and the others once again settle for minor places.

Tiago

Just reading a bit of news and the one thing I’m noticing is that the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is going to have a lot of horses coming in off a layoff, many horses who have never run a route of ground and even more who have not tried synthetics. Last time the Juvenile was run at Santa Anita it drew the weakest field in recent memory and true to form a maiden winner (Action This Day) stormed to the front off a fast pace at 26/1.

I’m not about to predict boxcars for this years event since all it takes is one good horse with the proper preparation and Midshipman is probably going to fit that description. But consider how a few of the notables are coming into the race.

Charitable Man - 2 for 2 lifetime but will likely enter off a layoff with no two turn experience and up to this point not even a work on synthetics.

Coronet of a Baron - He’s apparently too knocked out to run in the Norfolk so it’s straight to the Juvenile. No two turn experience.

Run Away And Hide - He has not been out since the Saratoga Special on August 14th. He hasn’t run past 6.5f but his connections are fully committed to sending him to the Juvenile. He might still go in the Breeders Futurity but he’s had a problem and may not recover in time.

Azul Leon - Was supposedly set for the Norfolk but there has been no news of his intended participation. Perhaps he will still enter but a few days out there is no buzz on his intentions. He has not run since Aug 10th and of course like all the others on this list he has no two turn experience.

These four contenders would all be in any Juvenile top 10 list and some of them would even be in a top 5. I’m one of those guys who likes to stick with the proven methods of bringing up horses to big races and I must say more and more of these contenders are looking like horses to bet against. I realize that layoffs are not the big deal they used to be but two turn experience is still a very big issue in my mind.

As some readers may be aware one of the new and unique features of Kennedy’s Corridor is the Thoroughbred Championship Power Rankings. Unlike traditional standings which are meant to quantify what a horse has accomplished Power Rankings are an attempt to identify which horses are better. Talent must, of course, be identified and defined by accomplishment but Power Rankings give no advantage to horses who make many starts like standings do.

Since it’s an attempt to answer the question “who is better” it makes sense that power rankings ought to be a useful handicapping aid. I went about testing this hypothesis over the last 12 runnings of the Breeders’ Cup and made some interesting discoveries.

We all know that the best horse does not always win the race. There are so many factors that go into picking a winner. Simply identifying the best horse will not always land you on the winner. One must always asses if the “best” horse earned their status running in races like the one they’re in today. For instance Curlin was most certainly the “best” horse in the Man O’War but how much does that count for when the Man O’War was his first try on turf.

All those issues aside, after a little study I found that the TC Power Rankings actually work quite well in the Breeders’ Cup races even if you ignore how the horses earned their ranking. But like any useful tool you can’t just use it in it’s most simple form and expect good results. From the last 93 Breeders’ Cup races the top ranked horse won 20 times. You would have done better simply betting on the favorite.

I am one who subscribes to the theory that the absolute top number, figure or ranking means little on a given race day. Averages are always a better way to determine who belongs and who doesn’t. It’s how I use speed figures and just about any other number a horse can earn. You take the average of the entire field then use only those who were better than the field average.

482 of the 1098 Breeders’ Cup starts since 1996 earned a Power Ranking that was better than the field average. That’s 43.89% of the starters who accounted for 61 wins in the 93 races. That’s a solid impact value of 1.49. In addition to the 61 winners you could have had 38 exacta’s and 15 trifecta’s from boxing all the qualifiers. Needless to say hitting the exacta in 40% of the races you play is pretty good even if you are using 5 horses on average per race.

Be sure to keep an eye on the TC Power Rankings as the Breeder’s Cup approaches. Chances are the winner is somewhere among the 5 top ranked horses in each race.

Current Power Rankings for selected Breeders’ Cup contenders

Classic
Curlin - 47.77
Big Brown - 38.84
Go Between - 24.00
Commentator - 23.63
Well Armed - 22.07

Ladies Classic
Zenyatta - 31.77
Ginger Punch - 27.31
Music Note - 20.54
Hystericalady - 17.71
Little Belle - 10.43

Sprint
Bustin Stones - 23.50
Street Boss - 18.83
First Defence - 14.73
Rebellion - 12.14
In Summation - 11.33

Turf
Dancing Forever - 21.83
Champs Elysees - 17.63
Red Rocks - 16.38
Grand Couturier - 14.08
Spring House 12.83

Mile
Whatsthescript - 20.68
Ventura - 16.03
Daytona - 15.88
Kip Deville - 15.69
Monzante - 12.88

FM Turf
Mauralakana - 20.51
Black Mamba - 15.97
Pure Clan - 12.66
Wait A While - 12.52
Forever Together - 12.25

Weekend Overview: Commentator and Indian Blessing took big steps towards the Breeders’ Cup while Proud Spell all but ruled herself out. Still one can’t help but feel that the biggest news of this week is that it’s almost next week. There are 17 Graded Stakes coming up including 11 G-1’s. If not for the Breeders’ Cup itself it would be the biggest weekend of the year. But back to the immediate past. Commentator looked pretty good although he was beating no one of consequence. Indian Blessing is easily the best Female Sprinter in the land, although the inexperienced Elope should be a very nice filly when she fully matures. If the race for the 3yo Filly Eclipse Award was still open before the weekend it’s wide open now. Proud Spell did not look very good in the Cotillion and if she’s as worn out as her connections claim there is no way she’ll be going to the Breeders’ Cup. Delosvientos took another listed stakes race and has been able to compile a very decent record this year as a stayer. The Breeders’ Cup Marathon is not a target for him because his connections refuse to run on Saturday for religious reasons. The race will be the poorer for it. My Pal Charlie always hinted at having some real talent but he finally put all the pieces together in the Super Derby. He is not a legitimate Classic contender, hopefully they’ll aim him at a race like the Clark Handicap then continue on with him as an older horse. North of the border we saw Queens Plate winner Not Bourbon return in style. He scored an impressive 4 length win in a listed stakes race and just may be a logical outsider for the Dirt Mile.

Thoroughbred Championship Rankings: Proud Spell did not manage to move up any places in the overall ranking despite earning a few more points in the Cotillion. Indian Blessing is now moving into a contending position for the top Three Year Female spot as well as taking the lead as the #1 Female Sprinter. If Proud Spell is indeed done for the year her status as the top sophomore Female is seriously in doubt. She could conceivably end up being third best behind Music Note and Indian Blessing. Commentator has moved into the 5th spot in the Main Track Older Male category and 10th overall.

Power Rankings: If you wanted more evidence that Proud Spell’s championship claims are under threat the Power Rankings paint a less flattering picture than the TCR. Music Note remains the top Three Year Old Female and Proud Spell declines as Indian Blessing surges. Proud Spell still owns the second rank in the division but if Indian Blessing were to win at the Breeders’ Cup she would surely surpass her. What Jones obviously does not understand is that racing is a sport where wins are accounted as credit but losses count also. Proud Spell has 4 losses from 8 races and this was the worst one yet. She still has an edge on her rivals when it comes to accomplishments but these rankings suggest that overall she isn’t as good as Music Note.

Performance of the Week: It was not the 14 length triumph by Commentator that caught my eye, nor was it his sizzling 113 Beyer speed figure. What I loved about the performance Commentator gave in the Mass Cap is that he didn’t get to the front and he didn’t panic or sulk. The ability to rate is a big weapon for a speedy horse like him. He is actually 3 for 4 in two turn races. His only loss came in the 2005 Hal’s Hope when he was injured and we all know the speed figures he’s produced have been massive (123, 120, 113). It makes you wonder why this horse has only made 4 two turn races from 20 career starts. I never thought of him as a true 10f horse but one has to consider him a huge danger as he’s been doing his best Ghostzapper imitation all year long. The numbers say he is both the fastest sprinter and the fastest router. I really hope he ends up in the Classic.

Race of the Week: As a race fan I actually enjoyed seeing Indian Blessing win the Gallant Bloom. I know it was a short field and the race itself didn’t have much drama but I like seeing good horses run well and Indian Blessing is an uncommonly good horse. She’s now run three sprints in a row and earned Beyer figures of 110, 110 and 109. That means she has a better average than any of the top male sprinters over their last three races. In the Gallant Bloom she had to deal with Zada Belle early on. Zada was intent on leading but Indian Blessing just wouldn’t let her clear. The result was some pretty testy fractions and Elope’s pilot must have been loving it but the would-be upsetter’s optimism must have faded pretty quickly for as soon as she laid down her challenge Indian Blessing moved away again. I really hope we get to see this filly as a four year old.

Flop of the Week: There were no real high profile flops aside from the loss of Proud Spell which we’ve already discussed. I think I’ll give the flop to the Suffolk Downs racetrack for failing to attract a better field for the Mass Cap. I suppose it’s not all their fault but they drew exactly one horse who was up to the standard of previous winners. The Mass Cap was no better than the Tiznow stakes in terms of quality from top to bottom and it’s a real shame that Commentator was denied the opportunity to beat some better horses.

Tip O’the Cap: It’s nothing great that he’s in particular but this week’s tip o’the cap goes to Bob Baffert. In a week where he lost his best older filly to injury he managed to rebound with his best horse, full stop. To Tough Tiz’s Sis I say thanks for the ride, I was really hoping to see her in the Breeders’ Cup but you can’t always get what you want. Baffert has had a rough go in the last few years. The switch to synthetics has hit him very hard since he was predominately a speed trainer. But with horses like Tough Tiz’s Sis, Indian Blessing and Midshipman he has managed to stay in the big leagues and has even become one of the most dangerous shipping trainers in the nation. He playing the hand he’s been dealt and he’s doing very well with it.

KC Handicapping: Not a vintage week for handicapping. My longshot special didn’t pan out and Forest Command looked like a horse who has some real talent but needed to add experience and a more inward post to see any real results in the Super Derby. He’ll be a good horse but he’s not quite there yet.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 2(1)-0-0-1 (-$4.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall Record: 593(302)-106-100-87 (-$124.60 -10.51% ROI)

Gallant Bloom Handicap

This is very likely not going to be a great betting race but it will possibly be the most intriguing race of the weekend. Indian Blessing does not get the respect she deserves in terms of year end award consideration. All the talk is about Music Note and Proud Spell. Jones wrongly believes that the race for the Eclipse is already over, it definitely is not and Indian Blessing still has an outsiders chance at it. This race will be a good solid test for her as the only real vulnerability she has shown is when coming off a layoff and this field is not that easy. I think it’s a pipe dream but I would actually like to play Indian Blessing if she’s 7/5 or so. She has never lost a sprint and I think her main rival on the board, Sugar Swirl, is a bit of a fraud. The only horse I give a shot to is Zada Belle and the one reason I like her is that she might be able to clear this field and be allowed to dictate the pace. Indian Blessing is being ridden with more caution these days and it might be an opportunity for someone to steal the march. The dangerous thing is that Indian Blessing has the speed if asked. Zada Belle is a very good filly who is on the upgrade. She is not as brilliant as the Baffert speedster but I think she’s a near lock to hit the exacta. So I’ll be looking for Indian Blessings price to drift but if not I’ll be focused on the Indian Blessing/Zada Belle exacta with perhaps a small saver reversed.

Super Derby
I’m not sure why I’m repeatedly drawn to races that contain Macho Again but here we are. He’s been a bit of a thorn in my side as I’ve consistently had problems figuring out when he’s set to do his best. The pattern seems to be that if I select him he runs poorly and if I don’t he turns in a career best. Obviously the horse doesn’t care what my opinion of him is but I’ve always wanted to contend that despite results that suggest the contrary this horse is really at his best below a mile. I don’t trust him going long and here once again he’s going two turns. But unlike in previous efforts here he will be favored so it might finally be the day where I get my money’s worth by opposing him. I think the horse to beat is most definitely Forest Command. He is untested and he’s got a bad post but he could easily be a horse who is on a different level from these. Ward’s string really came alive at Saratoga and this horse might have the brightest future of any in his barn. The stretch out is a slight question as is the jump in class but I think he’ll deal with both. A longshot I also like quite a bit is Stungbythestorm. Not only is his name completely suitable for a big race winner in Louisiana but he’s set for a big effort. Despite below par speed figures this horse is actually pretty good. He prefers dirt to polytrack and his only loss on the real stuff came at the hands of Denis of Cork. Injury has blighted him since the spring but his comeback race was encouraging enough to see connections step him way up in class. He broke decently and was sent near the front but the horse directly to his inside never moved closer to the rail. He wound up going about 8 wide around the first turn. Couple that with the long layoff from injury and a surface that is not his favorite and it was too much to overcome. Now he gets down inside and should be perfectly placed to closely stalk the pace. He’d have to improve massively by the numbers to win but remember, the last time he ran on dirt he was breaking his maiden in January. It’s highly likely that he’s come on for that effort and is capable of much more.

Forest Command
Stungbythestorm

I don’t like to be characterized by repeated rants but I figure it’s been a while since I’ve expressed some frustration at how my beloved Breeders’ Cup is changing for the worse. I’ve always been a big fan of the Breeders’ Cup and I’ve decided that I’m part of the problem because no matter how much I dislike the changes I’m still going to get excited about racing’s championship day and I’m still going to support it.

But even my great affection for the Breeders Cup doesn’t fully gloss over the logical inconsistencies we’re being served. Focus for a moment simply on the line up of races.

The Dirt Mile will not be run on Dirt.

The Marathon is being run at the upper end of the classic distance band. Everywhere in the world, including America, Marathon’s start at 1 3/4 miles.

There are three versions of the Sprint and all of them are different distances. The Filly and Mare Sprint is 7f, the Turf Sprint is 6.5f and the Sprint is 6f.

They have tried to create parallel races for males and females and the Classic is longer than the Ladies Distaff, the Turf is longer than the FM Turf but the Sprint is shorter than the FM Sprint. So please explain the logic to me.

The Breeders’ Cup also tries to loosely mirror the main track races with Turf races. The Turf is longer than the Classic and the FM Turf is longer than the Ladies Classic. That makes sense, since in general Turf horses are known for having more stamina. But then why are the main track juvenile races longer than the juvenile turf races?

It’s almost as if someone just randomly assigned the distances of the various races. I’d actually prefer to hear that they just didn’t think about what they were doing rather than finding out that they gave it careful thought and this was the best they could come up with. I’d rather believe that the people controlling the greatest day in racing are just negligent instead of flat out stupid.

Trainers these days seem pretty conscious of the fact that they shouldn’t have their charge run their best race prior to the Breeders’ Cup. They want to be sure they save something. Here are some recent comments to that effect made in the DRF by Dutrow.

Big Brown could work as many as five times before the Classic. Meanwhile, Dutrow will sit back and wait for Sept. 27 to watch Curlin run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont and others prep in the Goodwood at Santa Anita the same day.

“I hope a couple of them freak on the 27th,” Dutrow said. “Coming back [in four weeks] is a little too quick if you freak.”

Obviously a comment like this makes one wonder if it is statistically supported. The problem comes in trying to quantify a “freak” performance. I decided to use a new Beyer high in their last race prior to the Breeders’ Cup. But the new Beyer high has to be at least 5 points better than their previous best career effort.

So here are the figures for every Breeders’ Cup entrant from 1996 to the present who won their last prep race within 4 weeks of the Breeders’ Cup achieving a new career high Beyer besting their old mark by at least 5 points.

Sharp Cat - 2nd
Banshee Breeze - 2nd
Miss Linda - 6th
Jostle - 9th
Whiskey Wisdom - 4th
Arch - 9th
Albert The Great - 4th
Dust On The Bottle - 11th
Aptitude - 8th
Swept Overboard - 4th
Elusive Jazz - 5th
Val Royal - 1st
Funfair - DNF
Insight - 11th
Collect The Cash - 11th
Riskaverse - 7th

Overall Record: 16-1-2-0

I omitted the juvenile races because dropping horses who ran big new tops would be illogical when the juveniles are all at a time in their careers where they should be improving leaps and bounds in every start. The record is not all that flattering and many of these horses were “hot” on the board. Dutrow may indeed be onto something.

These figures show only the horses who set a new top while winning but if you also isolated those who set new Beyer tops by 5 points or more while losing and then ran back in less than 4 weeks in the Breeders’ Cup the results are pretty similar.

Minister’s Melody - 5th
Top Secret - 5th
Harlans Holiday - 9th
Lodge Hill - 8th
Ethan Man - 10th
Thor’s Echo - 1st
Forefathers - 10th

Overall Record: 7-1-0-0

Thor’s Echo was the only horse who ran even remotely well although many of these horses were still longshots in the Breeders’ Cup.

Combined the statistics show that “freaks” (as I’ve chosen to define them) do indeed have a difficult time coming back into the Breeders’ Cup on less than 4 weeks rest. They’re 23-2-2-0 overall.

Something to keep an eye out for.