Secretariat Stakes
I’m not sure if I’ll be around much on Friday so I’ll have to get in some of the weekend handicapping now. That will give you plenty of time to make yourself aware of who I’ve selected and confidently toss them from consideration. I have a feeling that all three favorites: Tizdejavu, Precious Kitten and Archipenko can all lose but mostly likely only one or two of them will. I think one is justified in taking shots in all three races because you never know when the value might spring up. Tizdejavu is the heaviest favorite in all three races and he can definitely win. I’m not up to taking a strong stand against him. But I see him as vulnerable for a few reasons. One reason is that everyone knows what he’s all about. He’ll go straight to the front and try to gallop them off their feet. I always worry taking a confirmed speedster at a short price going long on the grass. Someone could easily decide to get suicidal and spoil his chances. Sr. Henry chased home The Tiz last time out and has more speed than he showed. He might decide to go head to head with him. Another real worry about Tizdejavu is that despite three nice wins on the grass he has never stepped up and run a big figure. His dominance may be an illusion of sorts and although I was already biased towards Gio Ponti before this campaign started I think Gio Ponti has even shown the neutral he’s already better than The Tiz. It has also been a long time since Tizdejavu got a rest. I’m a firm believer that big turf events like this often go to horses with a recent freshening. Any more than three races into a form cycle and I start to get nervous. A horse who interests me as an alternative is Secret Getaway. I know he’s about 10 points slow according to Beyer but horses at Woodbine often get the shaft figure wise. He is a very interesting case. In his first start this year he was awarded a win at Keeneland in a sprint against Accredit. We was only a neck behind him at the line but suffered some bumping from the winner. Accredit is at least a G-3 quality sprinter who recently won at Saratoga. Secret Getaway is an awkward gangly type who needs a route of ground. The fact that he ran him so close is a huge indicator of ability. He followed that with a minor stakes win on the Polytrack at Woodbine. In his turf debut he won the Toronto Cup by a good 3 lengths over a horse called Marlang who recently returned to win the Breeders’ Stakes which is part of Canada’s Triple Crown. It was Marlang’s only loss on the Turf. Secret Getaway was much the best that day despite running greenly. He never switch leads yet he still drew off. A more professional display could see him take a huge step forward. He also has good speed so he can be the first to pounce if Tizdejavu starts to weaken.

Secret Getaway
Tizdejavu

Beverly D Stakes
There is a horse I really like in the race and I’ve been waiting to play her at a price since last fall. It’s a high quality race and personally a far more exciting one than the Million. Rosinka is my fancy and I’m hoping she stays relatively unnoticed at 8/1. She does not have the profile of horses like Precious Kitten, Dreaming of Anna or Mauralakana but she is every bit as good if not better. Rosinka can be an absolute bear when she’s feeling up to it. Last year she beat Royal Highness who then turned around and won this race. She then took out Mauralakana who has turned around and won 4 of 6 starts since. Her final start of last year was a narrow reverse to Lahudood in the Flower Bowl. She was very tough to get by that day and probably would have been tough in the BC FM Turf if she had stayed healthy. She’s been a bit below her best in her first two starts back but Motion is placing her aggressively and that’s a very good sign. She has a bit of a problem finishing races. Last time she had the race sewn up until she veered and lost all momentum. C Velasquez rides her back and should be wise to her tricks. She has tons of speed and will give Dreaming of Anna all she can handle early. Unlike Anna this filly is all stayer. She is robustly built and does her best running at 10f or beyond. While Anna is more feminine and is yet to be tested at the distance. Precious Kitten is unproven at this distance and has never been an unbeatable horse. 9/5 is horrendous value on her. I’d use Mauralakana in all spots as well as Rosinka. Although I don’t see Mauralakana as a brilliant filly she is solid and is the safest show bet on the card.

Rosinka
Mauralakana

Arlington Million
Archipenko will be over bet in my opinion, the real problem with him is that I do still like his chances of winning but he really gives you no choice but to look elsewhere for value. We can all see the reasons he can win but I wonder if his form is not pumped up a little. He has been running in all the right type of races but his competition has been weak. The Dubai Duty Free looked like a great race but he sort of sucked up for third and no one behind him as done much since aside from Creachadoir who was always more effective at a mile. He beat Viva Pataca but that one has tailed off significantly. Last time he faced Ramonti who exited the race with an injury. All the results look right and give the illusion of a classy horse in fine form but if he’s 2/1 and I can find some nice price alternatives I’ll take them. I don’t trust Mount Nelson despite O’Briens fabulous form and record at Arlington. He can win but he’ll be 7/2 and he’s really not that much of a horse. Einstein is the American class and he should run well but his figures are declining and he has not had any recent rest. I think this is the best time to play against him. If he wins here he is much better than I thought. I don’t trust a horse like Spirit One. French horses rarely live up to the hype in the summer. They’re trained to be at their best in the spring and fall. Horses like Vangelis, Touch of Land and Alost had form that was just as good but it didn’t work out for any of them. I am most interested by Sudan and Stream Cat. Sudan will likely be my primary play as long as he doesn’t get bet down. He has superb hidden form. His is a G-1 winner who was not far behind Rail Link and Manduro at one point. In North America he has had mixed fortunes. I think Frankel took a while to figure him out but he’s got him good right now. Take a look at his last race. I know most people were watching Curlin and the other two BC Turf winners but Sudan may have run the best race overall. He got into a ridiculous speed duel with a 38/1 shot. He went the first quarter in :22 and change and 6f in 1:11.8. It was an idiotic pace but he would up just 3 lengths behind some serious horses. Better Talk Now in fact could not get to him until the last few jumps and he was within a length of him for the last furlong. Sudan was not quitting like he should have. There is no other pace in this race unless Einstein decides he wants the front. Sudan could have things all his own way and may just pull a Tin Man on them. It is certainly worth a shot at a price. Another horse you must consider is Stream Cat. He has always sort of hung around the fringes. He’s flashed talent but doesn’t have more than a few G-3’s to show for it. Last year in the Million he ran 4th beaten just a length against a much better group than this one. He also came into the race in worse form than he is this year. He switched barns because of Biancone’s suspension and his initial start with George Arnold was a huge success. Cosmonaut has everything his own way lose on the lead but Stream Cat blew his doors off. It was easily a career best for him. It was the type of form that would even give Einstein trouble at his best. Stream Cat is a superb play if the speed of Sudan doesn’t hold and just maybe he’ll get Sudan even if that one runs his best race.

Sudan
Stream Cat

Wait A While - She is not the filly she was but on the right day she is still the most brilliant of this group and there is good reason to believe that she could have her best day at Santa Anita on rock hard turf. She has run at Santa Anita twice and both efforts produced brilliant victories with Beyers of 109 and 105.

Pure Clan - I have high hopes for this three year old filly. She is not yet at the level where she could compete with the best of this group but her speed figures will likely improve dramatically once she starts facing better horses. She’s got a good turn of foot and a good winning attitude. She has also never lost in 4 tries on the grass. She is not unlike Wait A While as a 3yo in that she seems quite effective on the dirt as well but the Turf is where her real future lies. All she needs is that one big performance to show that she can handle older mares.

Darjina - She’s been blighted with seconditis and is by no means certain to participate but I do think she is well suited to this spot. The best cure for a consistent loser is a class drop and although this is a championship event it would be a class drop for her. She is not a classic type filly like Ouija Board or Islington, much more of a miler type like a Banks Hill but she is every bit as capable as each one of that trio. She would be the race favorite if she came.

Mauralakana - The best of an average lot so far. A winner of 4 of 5 starts this year Mauralakana has been the model of consistency and she is the horse they’ll all have to deal with. The trouble with her is that she is solid but unspectacular. While she is the most consistent performer in the division her best races don’t match up with those of the more brilliant names on this list. I think she might also prefer 11f as opposed to the 10f this race will be this year.

Lady Of Venice - I had all but pigeon-holed her as a miler by the close of last season. But a year older and in a new barn she no longer seems to have the speed to get it done at a mile. I still think 10f is stretching it a bit but the 10f FM turf events often go to fillies who look more like milers rather than the real classic types. Her lone effort at the distance was not poor by any means. Look for connections to stretch her out in the Beverly D followed by either the Yellow Ribbon. She may not win those races but if she runs well she will be very dangerous in the BC. I actually liked her Cash Call Mile performance very much.

Dynaforce - I heard some people suggesting that she didn’t stay when second in the Diana. I think that’s rubbish. She stays 9f and indeed she’ll stay 10f. Her problem in the Diana was that Kent D was riding to beat Wait A While and left her completely exposed to a late run. He had to move early because it looked like Pletcher’s horse was going to sweep past but when Wait A While sputtered Dynaforce was all alone in front. When Forever Together came late for the win you could see Kent D slash his whip down in frustration. He knew he got it wrong. Dynaforce will do much better if ridden on her own.

Precious Kitten - I thought she was the outstanding Female Turf horse of 2007 but she’s had almost no campaign at all this term. The distance is a question mark but she is bred to go 10f and she has not proven that she can’t. She is brilliant enough to win this race and that puts her ahead of many others.

Dreaming Of Anna - No one really talks about her but there are few tougher on the grass. I have my doubts about her at 10f but I think speed does hold up better at Santa Anita than at deep courses like Arlington or Belmont in the fall. Her race in the Beverly D will give us clues. If she happens to win that race then she may well go to the head of the line.

Rosinka - A real longshot who showed some fight last year when a narrow second to Lahudood in the Flower Bowl. She has not gotten back to that level yet this term but she is capable on her day. A very tough and feisty horse at her best. She likes to wing it on the front end but probably would prefer 11 furlongs to 10.

Black Mamba - I’m not really a huge fan of her chances. I think she is beating extremely weak opposition at present. Still she is the most consistent Californian Turf router this year and that has to at least place her among the 10 most likely winners. I like that she always brings her race I don’t like that she is just not very fast.

Weekend Overview: Favorites dominated all the major stakes this weekend. Black Mamba, Big Brown, Indian Blessing and Zenyatta all obliged their fans and won in differing manners. Black Mamba had to endure trouble in running but was impressive once she got a clear sight. Indian Blessing blew her overmatched rivals out of the water with a facile score and Zenyatta once again looked untouchable. There has been quite a bit of discussion about Big Brown’s performance. Naysayers are quick to heap abuse on him as he only narrowly defeated Coal Play who seemed completely overmatched. But personally I did not think his race was all that bad. Monmouth can be a very speed favoring track. Big Brown was coming off a layoff and did enough to get it done. He still managed a healthy 106 Beyer. I suspect he’ll look much better next time out.

Performance of the Week: Zenyatta was her usual self on Saturday and it bears mentioning that her usual self is most unusual. It simply seems inevitable that no matter how well a rival may perform or how the pace sets up she will forge her way to the front and ease down in the final furlong. It seems that she only ever runs for about 1 furlong, generally the second last furlong, of any race. By the time she hits top gear her rivals are already fully stretched and Smith just lets momentum coast her to the line. She has never really been hard driven and I suspect her two most difficult opponents from here on out will be fitness and Curlin. You really have to feel for Model’s connections. That horse absolutely ran out of her skin and Zenyatta still shrugged her off with little ado. I had to watch the race several times because I just could not believe how easy it was for the giant filly.

Race of the Week: I’ve been hoping to see Red Giant back on track ever since last fall. I’m also hoping to see him at longer distances but this race was a good comeback spot. Red Giant has never run a bad race on the grass, it’s a shame he wasn’t ready for the Arlington Million. Back to the Fourstardave specifically. It appeared like a well matched field but almost no one could have predicted such a big race from Stalingrad. He probably prefers a mile but he was a tough customer in this spot. Red Giant showed a ton of class to come and get him right on the wire. It must also be noted that John Velasquez gave him a superb ride. I’ve often been critical about the way he tends to give horses the “favorites ride”. 3 wide and out of trouble about 2 lengths off the lead all the way around. He gives up a lot of ground and has often seemed unwilling to take the inside holes. He rode Red Giant fearlessly and flawlessly in this race.

Flop of the Weekend: What on earth is up with War Monger? He looked like the Turf heir apparent when he romped his way to a stylish win in the Sunshine Millions but he really has been lakcluster since. He did manage a third in the Kilroe but he was well and truly stomped that day. A terrible finish in the Makers Mark along with this stinker in the Fourstardave has to have connections wondering what went wrong.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Big Brown rides his Haskell success to the top of the rankings and dethrones Curlin after a 3 week stint in second place. It was a big week for Indian Blessing as she became the #1 Three Year Old Female and the top Female Sprinter. It looked at one point as though the Two Year Old Champion may not contend for the award this year against her peers but I think she’s firmly in the frame. Black Mamba also took top spot in the Turf Female division but closest rival Mauralakana need only run third in the Beverly D to reclaim first place.
The TC Power Rankings underwent a slight shift in calculation this week. This version does not change the historical results much at all but it will make the real time standings more accurate. Despite being the most accomplished Big Brown did not manage to take top spot in the Power Rankings. Curlin is still the best horse out there. Music Note is also still ranked above the red hot Indian Blessing. Remember to check out the ranking of the 10 best active horses on the sidebar.

Tip O’the Cap: I’m a contrarian by nature so I just have to give my weekly toast to the oft maligned Todd Pletcher. He had a terrible Saratoga last year and has been struggling this year as well. He had a very rough first week but caught fire recently and is now leading all trainers at the Spa. He also captured 3 stakes races over the weekend. People love to hate Pletcher and they theorize that with the recent crackdown on steroids his barn will suffer. If anything it’s gotten much better over this last week.

KC Handicapping: I felt rather uneasy about my selections this week and I ought to have stuck with that sentiment and stayed away from the races entirely.

Saratoga has not been going any better. I’m hitting winners at a decent rate but they’re all 3-1 or less. Every horse I take a shot with runs up the track.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 2(1)-0-0-0 (-$4.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall Record: 566(288)-100-98-81 (-$133.00 -11.74%)

West Virginia Derby
I’m afraid I don’t see many opportunities this weekend. Not that it’s a poor weekend in any way. I’m just not that confident about any horse aside from Indian Blessing in the Test who will likely pay 20 cents on the dollar. I will, for the sake of filling space, try to make a little play out of this race. I think there are a couple of interesting looking horses who might be decent prices, perhaps something like 5/1. The horse I like most is My Pal Charlie. He had all the promise in the world this spring but his record looks a bit sullied. His off the board finishes in Arkansas and Texas might scare some people away but I think with the benefit of some rest and a reasonable pace scenario he is going to be a tough horse to beat. He’s got great tactical speed and is capable of wiring the field but the key with him to be ridden right on the pace. In his two worst efforts he failed to get close to the pace because it was so fast. I think things will be more deliberate here. The form from the Northern Dancer has been working out pretty well and he could easily add another notch in that belt. There aren’t any killers in here. Cherokee Artist is another horse I liked. He’s pretty inexperienced but he has a ton of upside. He has never run a bad race and if he steps forward here he will be very tough. He is one horse I fear will simply freak out and develop to a level beyond the rest of the field. He also has good tactical speed but he shouldn’t be as close to the pace as he was in his last. It was very slow that day and he prefers to stalk from a bit further back. I’m sure most people who look at this race will take a wary glance at Marble Cliff. It’s hard to ignore a horse who is undefeated on the dirt. In fact no one has ever gotten near him, albeit in strictly Ohio bred races. I think he’s likely a fraud but I think you might have to hedge with him. Either use him for first or not at all.

My Pal Charlie
Cherokee Artist
Marble Cliff