Kent Stakes
In this race I’m looking to play back a horse who I loved last out. I’m hoping he goes off at just about the same price. It’s doubtful because this field is just about the same quality as the Hall of Fame stakes at Saratoga and almost everyone could see that Deal Making had some trouble in the lane. Horses that have rough trips often get over bet next time but I don’t like him because he was unlucky last time. I like him because I think he’s set to take another step forward in his progression. The Saratoga stakes race was the first big step up for him and quite often you see under developed horses struggle the first time they’re thrown in. But they learn plenty and improve. Graham Motion was pretty cold when Deal Making last ran but now he’s 4 for 6 in the last two weeks. I really do think that this will be the last time Deal Making is considered just an equal with this type of horse. I think Adriano is a sucker bet and Wesley, although good, will be just about the same quality he has always been. The stranger that is dangerous is Luck Money. I always respect Pletcher on the grass and he looked very nice last time. It worries me a bit that Prussian ran a stinker when he returned but Luck Money has every right to improve and throw a wrench in the mix. However I do still prefer Deal Making. Back on his home course and ready to run for a hot stable.

Deal Making
Luck Money

Woodward Stakes
This race will likely not be a great spot to make money in the win pool because Curlin needs to run well below expectations to drop this race but there are enough interesting things to discuss that I figured this race is worth a paragraph of free webspace. It seems like an eternity since Curlin ran a good second in the Man O’War there has been so much speculation and conversations and where he would go and should go. I think as a next step the Woodward is the perfect spot for him. It’s a bit of an interesting scenario we’ve got here because in looking back at past Woodward winners most of them were coming into the race fairly fresh (no more than 3 races into a form cycle) which Curlin is but they were also coming in off career high or near high Beyers which Curlin of course is not. In fact he hasn’t been near his career top all year. If there was actually another decent dirt horse in training I might be inclined to use them against him. But the class this field has attracted is not really good enough. There is only one horse I will use defensively and that is Wanderin Boy. Zito loves to upset the apple cart and in Wanderin Boy he has a very capable horse. He ran a huge race last time out to signal that he is as good as he’s ever been and at his best he’s a good horse. He did not disgrace himself in run-ins with Bernardini and Invasor, although it was clear that he was inferior he did do quite well. He will surely get to the lead on his own. No one else has the natural speed to compete with him. He may just run the rest of the field off their feet, I say “the rest” because Curlin is likely to come and get him no matter the pace scenario. Wandering Boy often runs his best races when coming off bullet works and he’s showing one here. You also should use Out of Control underneath, he’s a good horse who will love the distance and he actually has a 3-2-0-1 record on dirt. He ran in those race before he became “good” so perhaps he’s improved on the surface to the point where he could beat some nice horses. I think Past The Point is an improving type who should have a stakes future but he’d have to be delighted to be third. Hopefully for the Saratoga fans Curlin is back to his best and puts on a powerful display. If not I hope Wanderin Boy takes them all the way around.

Curlin
Wanderin Boy

At this point of the year basically all my thinking is geared towards the Breeders’ Cup. I watch each move by top class horses and evaluate what that might mean for the Breeders’ Cup. Many times I’m watching horses with back class who run well without winning but now in the past two years another interesting angle has popped up. Because we now have synthetics all over the place main track horses, especially Californians, are often found switching surfaces. Since many horses do not handle both very well it can create value opportunities.

I thought Hystericalady was the horse to beat in last year’s Distaff. In route races on the dirt she was 4-3-0-0 and she had still not won on synthetics. Despite the fact that there were preps out East her trainer chose to bring her back to Santa Anita for a prep on synthetics which she lost at short odds. Anyone watching closely knew she was a better horse on the dirt and she very nearly got it done on BC day at 9/1.

This year it seems like we have a reverse situation coming up. This short blurb at the DRF caught my eye.

“Though nominated to the Palomar, Tough Tiz’s Sis will not make her turf debut in that race, trainer Bob Baffert said.

“She left here this morning for New York. She’s going to run in the Ruffian,” Baffert said Tuesday of the Grade 1 race Sept. 6 at Belmont Park. He added, joking, “I was either going to run her in the Bustles and Bows at Fairplex, or the Ruffian.”

Baffert said Tough Tiz’s Sis would run against his champion filly Indian Blessing in the Ruffian.”

Consider Tough Tiz’s Sis for a moment. This is a horse who is 8-3-4-1 on synthetics. She is a G-1 winner on the surface and her three highest Beyer figures have been earned on the surface. A significant fact since synthetic Beyers are lower than dirt figures. By comparison in dirt route stakes races she is 6-2-0-1 with just two listed stakes wins. One has to wonder then, why is Baffert sending this filly away from her preferred surface to run on a track she has never really done well on against a brilliant horse from his own barn?

Sure he is likely tired of seeing Zenyatta but she has gotten closer to beating Zenyatta than any other horse. There is a race being run today at Del Mar that she would have fit perfectly and it was a safe bet that Zenyatta was not going to turn up. With the timing of the Ruffian she could still have another BC prep but the style these days is not to run too close to the event if you don’t have to.

You can almost disregard any poor performance by Tough Tiz’s Sis in the Ruffian but watch for her when she comes back to synthetics. Either in the Distaff or even in a race like the Spinster.

Remember to keep a close eye on any moves that clearly take a horse out of their best element. Whether it be surface or distance. Lewis Micheal was a great example last weekend of what can happen once they get the type of race they really wanted.

Each weekend from now until the Breeders’ Cup we are going to see horses who are prepping for the big event. For some, even though we’re 9 weeks away, these will be their last prep races. Knowing what to look for in the preps can go a long way towards finding good BC prospects well before they actually line up.

Many gamblers love the Breeders’ Cup because there are so many good horses even the 20/1 shots can be G-1 winners. But outside the big event did you know that odds are actually very good indicators of quality? Handicappers spend so much time trying to find value, which is essentially an anomaly where a horses chances are not accurately reflected by its odds. For the most part the public gets it right.

Did you know that over a sample of 10,000 races horses who are 7/1, which is a 12% chance of winning, win about 12%. Same with horses who are 2/1, 5/1, 20/1 or any other price. If you convert the odds to percentage you’ll find that horses at those odds preform in line with what their prices predict. It’s pretty amazing actually but the public generally gets it right.

How does this help us in the Breeders’ Cup prep races? Well if the tote board generally reflects the quality on hand then we can use it to make some observations and assumptions about the horses.

Some of the biggest trap horses horses in the Breeders Cup are those who were 10/1 or more in their last prep race. Prep races generally have 2 or 3 really quality individuals so if your horse was not less than 10/1 you can assume that the public does not believe it to be a horse of quality. Often in order to get to the Breeders’ Cup these 10/1+ shots outperform in their prep by winning or running in the frame. Their record in the Breeders’ Cup is not very good. From 1996 to the present horses who were 10/1 or more in their last race went 151-4-6-9 in the BC. Adoration, Thor’s Echo, Street Sense and Lahudood were the only exceptions. I know most of them were recent winners but in general this angle will keep you away from scores of wiseguy horses. The most negative subset of these horses are those who won their last prep race at 10/1 or more. They went 42-1-2-3, Lahudood was the only exception. Came Home, River Keen, Kelly’s Landing, Riskaverse, Wicked Style and Stormello were among the horses you could have avoided.

Excluded in these numbers are horses who came directly from the Arc. That is a championship event in its own right so the odds are skewed upwards.

So if there isn’t great value in playing last out longshots where do we find it? Well if the tote board can identify horses who may not belong it can also identify horses of real quality.

Keep an eye on the favorites of each of the major prep races and especially watch the ones who lose. Favorites who win prep races are often favorites again on Breeders’ Cup day. Favorites who lose prep races can sometimes be written off but they are still horses of quality.

Using data from 1996 to the present if you had bet on any failed favorite returning to the BC you would have made an astonishing 110.39% ROI. There are three small refining factors with this play and they are that the favorite must be returning at similar surface and distance in the BC. If a classic contender was the favorite in a 8f Turf race last time the form does not necessarily translate. So they must be returning on the same surface and the same distance category (ie sprint or route) Also since this is aimed at finding value the horse cannot be favored in the Breeders’ Cup race. And finally I’d require the the favorite still finished second or third in their last prep. You don’t want a horse that is woefully out of form.

Horses that fit this criteria are 103-15-12-11 in the BC since 1996 and as I mentioned, betting on them would have netted a tidy 110.39 ROI. Winners like Artie Schiller, Singletary, Volponi, Tempera, Tiznow, Cat Theif and Alphabet Soup all fit the mold. In the 2007 Breeders’ Cup there were three horses you would have used: Ginger Punch, Octave and Lawyer Ron. Obviously Lawyer Ron failed to bounce back to form but Ginger Punch paid $11.00 to win and Octave ran a hard closing third behind her.

Weekend Overview: I truly hope every racing fan enjoyed this weekend as much as I did. Forget for a moment who you might have bet on, go back and watch the big events. They were simply fantastic. Race after race with tight finishes exciting closing kicks and for the most part the cream rising to the top. I know the thought of having the Breeders’ Cup on a synthetic frustrates and worries a lot of people but really just consider the Sunday card at Del Mar. Would you really be disappointed if the Breeders’ Cup was that exciting and even formful? As a side note a few of the best horses to run this weekend, Hystericalady, Mr. Nightlinger and Spring House are virtually off the radar.

Performance of the Week: I get down on her quite a bit and just a few days ago I was quite confident that I could beat her at a short price but hats off to Ginger Punch. She looked like she was struggling a long way out and with the added distance and hormone problems she had every excuse to lose. But champions keep on going and find a way. That’s what Ginger Punch did, no matter how many times I watch that race I can’t see how she got her head in front. It was an unbelievable effort.

Race of the Week: Is anyone still down on the quality of the Travers? Quite a few people were talking about it being a weak renewal. I think the top two horses put in a really top class performance. The field was well matched on paper but Colonel John and Mambo In Seattle distinguished themselves from the pack. They’re the two best main track three year old males behind Big Brown. Both horses were ridden well from a tactical standpoint and for the last 100 yards it was just a matter of who wanted it more.

Flop of the Week: Synthetic tracks get blamed for a lot of things but they cannot be to blame for Midnight Lute’s flop in the pat O’Brien. I know he had a horrendous trip but part of that was his doing. He broke terribly and didn’t seem to have the speed to find any gaps. He showed very little in the lane as well. This wasn’t the track, the horse for whatever reason did not come to run. I really wonder what Baffert will do with him, I sure hope they keep on going.

TCR Mover’s And Shakers: Intangaroo retook top spot in the Female Sprinter division with yet another G-1 victory. She seems to only show up in the biggest events. Colonel John and Go Between obviously jumped a few spots up the standings but neither really has a shot at leading their division. Big Brown and Curlin are almost runaways at this point. The Main Track older Female Division is still up for grabs. Ginger Punch showed the heart of a champion to win the Personal Ensign and she’s staying with Zenyatta step for step in the standings.

The power rankings had an interesting weekend. Obviously they have changed now with the latest results but going into the weekend you could have had some interesting winners if you had played power rankings. The Pacific Classic trifecta was made up of the top 3 ranked horses (although they technically finished 2,1,3). Colonel John, Ginger Punch, Intangaroo, Hystericalady and Dearest Trickski were all the top ranked horses in their respective races. Obviously you don’t need a system to come up with Ginger Punch but Colonel John and Intangaroo were both mild upsets.

Tip O’the Cap: How many G-1 races does Intangaroo need to win before she’ll start being regarded as the best Female Sprinter? I must admit I didn’t pick her to win but part of that was because I handicapped on Friday and figured she was staying at Del Mar where I did like her chances. She has now won three G-1 races on three different tracks at average odds of 15/1. It really is quite unbelievable. Congratulations to her small time connections who have her spot on for every big race.

KC Handicapping: I managed to break even with Colonel John and Whatsthescript. The Personal Ensign turned out nothing like I had hoped. Ginger Punch is one serious filly. I had considered playing Visionaire because of the speed in the Kings Bishop but I suspected he was just a mudlark. I was impressed with the race run by Global Hunter, he was not beaten very far in third. He could be a nice turf horse. I was also quite glad to see Colonel John hang on after Cool Coal Man got completely wiped out at the head of the stretch. I feels good to win a photo every now and then.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 8(4)-2-0-2 ($0.40 +2.50% ROI)
Overall Record: 579(295)-103-98-84 (-$135.80 -11.73% ROI)

Personal Ensign Stakes
It does not fit the traditional pattern of a great betting race. The field will be small and two favorites will dominate the betting. But luckily for us the two favorites should also dominate the race and I’m hoping the public really slams Ginger Punch. It’s not that I think Ginger Punch will run poorly. On the contrary I think she’ll do quite well but I think Unbridled Belle is a much stronger horse in this spot and probably should be odds on. Unbridled Belle is consistently inconsistent and she should be set for a good race. In fact I suspect this will be a career best effort. She has already proven that she can beat Ginger Punch and she is much better suited to 10f. Although Ginger Punch seems more invincible this year I actually think she is not as good as she was last fall and summer. Her form is dressed up somewhat Unbridled Belle on the other hand might be better than last year. It’s hard to tell with only two races but I think her last race was way better than it looks on paper and the Obeah was a colossal race. I’m putting it all in Unbridled Belle in this one unless the track is less than fast. Off tracks suit Ginger Punch much better.

Unbridled Belle

King’s Bishop Stakes
I’m slightly at odds with myself over this race because after the Amsterdam I was so impressed with Desert Key I wanted to bet him next time out as long as it wasn’t this race. Connections chose to bring him back here and I’m really tempted to waver on my earlier stance because I truly believe that this horse will prove to be the best of this bunch eventually. He is a monster in the making. However I have to do the honest thing and handicap this race as it is. Desert Key unfortunately has drawn the rail in a race where he will face significant early pace pressure from Nautical Storm and then mid race pressure from J Be K. 7f is not his best distance and he’s coming back without any real rest off an extremely tough race. It’s a bet against scenario. I think the distance of 7f will be a huge factor in this race because many horses like Lantana Mob, Desert Key, I’m So Lucky and Gentleman James are not 7f horses. J Be K, Silver Edition and Kodiak Kowboy are 7f horses and I’ll be focusing my attention on them. As boring as it is the two favorites really are the horses to beat and I will use J Be K instead of Kodiak Kowboy. I think both can win and I have a soft spot for Kodiak but J Be K is a far more proven commodity in sprint races. No one has finished within 4 lengths of him in a dirt race under a mile. He has also been freshened for this while Kodiak Kowboy comes off a tough race which was his first off a layoff. I know Jones swears he won’t bounce but even if he doesn’t he might not be good enough to beat J Be K. An odd ball horse I’d use is Silver Edition. I know he is clearly worse than J Be K. But he loves the distance and I thought his last race was too bad to be true. He was rushed up a bit which is uncharacteristic for Leparoux, then he got stuck behind Eaton’s Gift who was plummeting to the back. I think he gets ridden more patiently this time and will come with one run. J Be K has never dealt with a speed horse like Desert Key and it’s quite possible that he’ll get burnt. Silver Edition and maybe Lantana Mob might be the ones to make things interesting late. But because Lantana Mob is coupled with Kodiak Kowboy there is no real value there. Conversely no one is going to bet Silver Edition.

J Be K
Silver Edition

Travers Stakes
A very deep and contentious race. You rarely see G-1 fields like this outside the Breeders’ Cup and the Triple Crown. On my first pass I really only saw fit to toss Tizbig and Amped. I’m not going to bet 10 horses in this race. Looking through past runnings of the Travers it has been noteworthy that horses with a recent freshening have done the best. Ten Most Wanted was one of the few who achieved success without a recent layoff line. Harlem Rocker, Pyro, Mambo In Seattle, Tres Borrachos, Amped and Tizbig are all deep into their form cycles and it makes me suspect that they might not be sitting on career best races. Obviously in Harlem Rocker, Pyro and Mambo in Seattle you have the top three contenders and they’ll take most of the money. Pyro to me is just a money burner. He is always well bet and beatable. I’d kick myself for using him at a short price here. Use him underneath only. Harlem Rocker and Mambo In Seattle are supposed to be the only two horses from this crop with a chance of challenging Big Brown. Harlem Rocker has never lost on dirt and Mambo in Seattle has only lost once on dirt and that came at the hands of an older horse. I’m going to take the view that Harlem Rocker simply isn’t as good as people think. He looked great in the spring but not very good in the summer. Mambo in Seattle has a profile similar to Grasshoppers who ran a race good enough to win this renewal last year. But Grasshopper was a much fresher horse. Mambo In Seattle has to be used on you tickets but I’m going to oppose him for the win. Faint hearts never won big scores. I’m going to focus my plays on three horses. Macho Again ticks all the right boxes except for the fact that I’ve always thought he’s better at a mile or less. He has been a tough horse for me to figure out and once again I don’t know what to do with him so I’ll just include him. Colonel John is a horse I believed greatly in going into the Derby and if you look closely at the race he was not that disappointing. I think he deserves another shot on the surface and he could hardly be training any better. The odd ball pick that I will use in all spots is Cool Coal Man. Most people think he’s a bit of a fraud but he has silently been set up quite well for this race. Look at his dirt routes this year other than the derby. He is 4-3-0-1 with Beyers ranging from 92-98. Second off a layoff is a good angle for Zito and he’s been working very sharply on the deep and taxing Oklahoma training surface. The pace should be hot thanks to Da’Tara and Tizbig and Cool Coal Man should get a nice stalking trip with Johnny V. Zito and Velasquez is a not often seen, but potent combo. if you’re playing exotics feel free to go deep. I think the payouts will be quite nice even if a few of the logical horses hit the frame.

Cool Coal Man
Colonel John
Macho Again

Del Mar Mile Handicap
What do you do with Daytona here? I have no idea what his last race was about but I’m going to play against him here. He’ll be very well bet but that last race has left too many doubts in my mind. Did Storm Military really run him into the ground? Will he do it again here? One Union also has early speed and horses coming off the bench are often a little keen early on. I think the pace falls apart here and we get a good old California blanket finish. Whatsthescript is the logical alternative. It seems like his trainer has chosen not to adhere to the suggestion to scale back on steroids. That coupled with his form makes him quite live. I like him cutting back in distance after the premature move in the Eddie Read. I don’t think Monzante will get to him here. His quickness and the nice pace setup should see him win the day. There is also a bomb in here and he is the reason why I chose to highlight this race. What price do you think you could get on Global Hunter? I’m hoping something in the neighborhood of 30/1 because he has severely darkened form. Look at his 4 starts in North America. He’s been manhandled pretty badly in all but his debut. But this was a turf horse in Argentina and he has yet to see the sod in North America. He was actually quite a decent miler in South America and it is surely those races that convinced his connections that he could be effective here. Why he’s run in race like the Met Mile are beyond me. He’s flashed enough talent in his losses to suggest that he is a runner he just hasn’t been in the right kind of race. Global Hunter could really turn some heads here.

Global Hunter
Whatsthescript

FM Sprint
Probable contenders: Indian Blessing, Intangaroo, Maryfield, Magnificience, Sugar Swirl, Zada Belle, Mistical Plan, Any Limit, By The Light, Lethal Heat

Notable absentees: None

My Top 3
Indian Blessing - Simply the fastest horse in the division so far
Intangaroo - Like synthetics and seems to have a knack for running her best in big events
Lethal Heat - A very consistent performer who loves sprinting on synthetics

FM Turf
Probable contenders: Mauralakana, Halfway To Heaven, Wait A While, Black Mamba, Moonstone, Dynaforce, Pure Clan, Communique, Forever Together, Rutherienne, Precious Kitten, Lady of Venice, Ariege

Notable absentees: Zarkava, Vacare, Nashoba’s Key, Ventura

My Top 3
Moonstone - A very good O’Brien filly who seems to fit the mold well
Dynaforce - Unlucky in both North American starts. She might be the best of the home team
Ariege - Brilliant, unexposed but improving all the time

Ladies Classic
Probable contenders: Zenyatta, Ginger Punch, Hystericalady, Unbridled Belle, Spring Waltz, Tough Tiz’s Sis, Music Note, Little Belle

Notable absentees: Proud Spell

My Top 3
Zenyatta - Hard to argue with anything she’s done. She simply goes from strength to strength
Tough Tiz’s Sis - Has made a decent living from chasing Zenyatta. Quite easily the second best synthetic mare
Music Note - Still an unknown on the surface but her rise to stardom has been quick and she still might improve a great deal

Sprint
Probable contenders: Benny The Bull, Street Boss, Midnight Lute, J Be K, Lucky Island, In Summation, Rebellion, Idiot Proof, Bustin Stones, Abraaj, Desert Key, Kodiak Kowboy

Notable absentees: None

My Top 3
In Summation - Still the benchmark for sprinting on synthetics
Street Boss - He has looked scary in his last few races
Desert Key - Blazing speed, might not be as much of an asset at Santa Anita but a hugely progressive horse

Mile
Probable contenders: Kip Deville, Raven’s Pass, Daytona, Monzante, Hyperbaric, One Union, Tam Lin, Cosmonaut, Thorn Song, Whatsthescript, Storm Military

Notable absentees: Ever A Friend, Henrythenavigator, Creachadoir, Tamayuz

My Top 3
Raven’s Pass - Possibly a standout if his preparation is right. I’d like to see him win the Celebration Mile this weekend then train up to the Mile
Kip Deville - The North American gold standard. He hasn’t done a thing wrong since winning the race last year
Daytona - The best Californian miler since Ever A Friend went down to injury. Needs to get back on track in Del Mar Mile

Turf
Probable contenders: Red Rocks, Dancing Forever, Winchester, Spring House, Duke of Marmalade, Youmzain, Grand Couturier, Einstein

Notable absentees: Better Talk Now, Montmartre

My Top 3
Spring House - Odd choice for a race dominated by Europeans but he loves the course and is a legitimate 12f horse. Could be quite a shocker
Red Rocks - Not many holes in his North American form. Any winner of this race will have a hard time dealing with him
Dancing Forever - Blew it in his last but still a very good horse on firm ground. I like him for this spot more because I think Duke of Marmalade might be past his best by BC time

Classic
Probable contenders: Big Brown, Henrythenavigator, New Approach, Well Armed, Go Between, Student Council, Colonel John, Arson Squad, Mast Track, Tiago, Awesome Gem, Mambo In Seattle, Casino Drive

Notable absentees: Curlin, Pyro, Harlem Rocker, Heatseeker, Commentator

My Top 3
Go Between - He loves Santa Anita and always seems to run well on synthetics
Well Armed - Might be the classiest entrant with Curlin out. 10f is a question but speed is dangerous
Henrythenavigator - A wild card but if he can translate his form and stay 10f he will not have many horses in front of him at the line

In case you haven’t heard there has been a major development that will greatly effect racing fans and the direction of the sport. For perhaps the first time in history a major racing organization is soliciting advice from average fans. The NTRA has requested that five well known bloggers form a panel to discuss what can be done to “engage and retain” fans.

Here is an excerpt from the press release:

“The National Thoroughbred Racing Association’s Marketing Summit, to be held Sept. 21-23 at Red Rock Casino, Resort and Spa in Las Vegas, will feature a special 90-minute session on Sept. 22 called “Reaching a New Generation”. The workshop will be moderated by John Della Volpe, founder and president of SocialSphere Strategies and director of polling at Harvard’s Institute of Politics, and will focus on tactical strategies that racing can employ today to engage and retain new fans.

Joining Della Volpe in his presentation will be five members of a newly created NTRA online marketing task force: Dana Byerly, 42, from New York City; Jessica Chapel, 34, from Brooklyn, N.Y.;Patrick Patten, 30, from Matawan, N.J.; Troy Racki, 26 from Loma Linda, Calif.; and Kevin Stafford, 30 from Hanover, Penn. All are active bloggers, handicappers and online contributors.

“The presentation will be a living, breathing Web 2.0 collaboration with some of racing’s best fans,” said Della Volpe. “We have scoured the Internet for racing’s most ardent supporters, then we created an online community and gave them an assignment: Develop a plan to market the sport to a new generation of fans. Over the course of about six weeks, the group will be spending dozens of hours meeting, debating, and challenging each other’s assumptions — the results of which they will present to the industry at the NTRA Marketing Summit.”

Having read many of these blogs for years and being somewhat familiar with their stances on various issues I’m quite excited about the types of ideas that will be brought forward. Of course there is no guarantee that the suggestions will be implemented. But who could ask for more than an audience with powers of racing? I’m sure any racing fan would jump at the chance. It may be just the edge we need to get something like a point system implemented. It’s a major step in the right direction and a huge honour for the chosen five.

Let us hope their presentation is well received and that this is not a one time opportunity.

The Travers is a great race with a wonderful aura of tradition and prestige. Some have called it the second best race for three year olds behind only the Kentucky Derby. Very few horses have managed to sweep both races in the last 20 years. In fact only Thunder Gulch, Sea Hero and Street Sense did. Oddly enough only Thunder Gulch managed to win the 3yo Male Eclipse Award from that trio.

Whenever the 3yo Eclipse Award comes up in discussion the dominant Triple Crown horse is always the first name to emerge but supposedly savvy contrarians will always chime in with the caution that another horse might sweep the Travers and Breeders’ Cup and wrest the title away. It is perhaps an overlooked bit of trivia that no horse has actually managed to win the Travers and the Classic in the same year.

Travers winners are often well bet in the Classic. If you exclude Thunder Rumble (40/1) the average odds of a Travers winner in the Classic is 4.20/1. Yet they are 0 for 15 overall. They have managed 5 second place finishes but no other placings. Kentucky Derby winners on the other hand are 10-2-2-0 in the Breeders’ Cup with an average starting price of 5.20/1. Although it has been quite a while since a Derby winner was successful. In general Derby winners have had more success in the year end championships and have presented a bit more value.

Another interesting comparison I’ve noted between the Travers and Kentucky Derby is the records of the respective winners after reaching the pinnacle. Since 1996 Travers winners have gone 18-3-5-0 in the remainder of their starts during the same campaign. Kentucky Derby winners went 31-10-7-5 during the same period. Although the perception, often, is that the Derby produces some wild results because of the field size it is rather justified as a benchmark for quality. Derby winners won just about 30% of their post Derby starts and finished in the money 70% of the time. Travers winners were only half as effective.

Draw from this whatever conclusions you want. For my part I won’t be holding my breath for any horse to win the Travers then upstage Big Brown for the 3yo championship. It could theoretically happen but it would be unprecedented.

Weekend Overview: Back from vacation and glad to be back for the end of summer and the build up to the Breeders’ Cup. Aside from the Alabama it was not a very memorable weekend. It left a few people wondering what conclusions they could draw. The answer is not many. The scratch of Red Rocks seemingly left the Sword Dancer to Dancing Forever but he was quite terrible and one wonders if he has not been overrated from the start. None of the principles did any running in the Del Mar Oaks and the supposedly unbeatable Bold Union looked second rate in the Adirondack. As for the Alabama I think it turned out poorly for Music Note who had the rougher trip. This result likely means Proud Spell gets the Eclipse but in terms of ability they’re very close.

Performance of the Week: Grand Couturier obviously loves to spend his summers in Saratoga. He’s run in the Sword Dancer three times and he has two wins and a third to show for it. This was his best performance yet. Despite the fact that the field was much weaker than in other renewals it’s easy to see why this was his best race. He settled nicely and had no impact in the early running. Things got interesting as Garcia brought him right up the rail and onto the heels of the pace setter Presious Passion who had previously won the United Nations after setting a similar slow pace. Grand Couturier had tried to slip to his inside but got shut off hard. The late runners were coming on the outside as well led by champion Better Talk Now. So when when Grand Couturier regathered himself and shot to the front, this time outside the pacesetter, it was quite shocking to see him not only claim the lead but continue to widen his advantage to the line. He was far and away the best horse in the race.

Race of the Week: The Alabama will be a solid contender for race of the year to date. It was exactly what racing craved. The two best routing fillies of the generation going head to head all the way down the lane. Proud Spell had the better trip and about halfway through the race I wondered if Music Note might fire at all. But she came with a determined run and Proud Spell did extremely well to hold on. In both match up’s the filly got first run had the advantage. If we’re lucky enough to see them face off again you can bet both riders will want the initiative. the one sour note is that they don’t seem like they’re on course to meet again. The Proud Spell camp definitely seems to be of the opinion that this should be the defining race for divisional honours. Going to the Cotillion and skipping the BC instead of contesting the G-1’s at Belmont and showing up on championship day is definitely a weaker schedule than I’d like to see.

Flop of the Week: Dancing Forever was simply terrible in the Sword Dancer. It’s hard to find an excuse for him. Surely ground was not all to blame, maybe you can say he needed the race. However you look at it he ran well below expectations. It might make his price in the Joe Hirsch better but he showed a worrying lack of vigor.

TCR Movers and Shakers: The Three Year Old Female Division saw a pivotal contest take place in the Alabama. Proud Spell retook the lead from Indian Blessing and distanced herself a bit from Music Note. She’ll need the lead too because all indications are that she is not going to the Breeders’ Cup and the Cotillion (G-2) will be her next start. Meanwhile Music Note will head back to Belmont for the Gazelle (G-1) and likely the Beldame (G-1). Run Away And Hide is narrowly edging Azul Leon at the head of the Two Year Old Male Division. He looks like a solid colt but not one that needs to be feared.

A look at the TC Power Rankings reveals that a no less than four divisions have new leaders. Dancing Forever fell from the pinnacle of power in the Turf Male division. The Arlington Million winner Spirit One takes over. Both Saratoga juvenile winners Run Away And Hide and Mani Bhavan sit atop their divisional power rankings and Proud Spell upset Music Note to reclaim top spot. Proud Spell, Music Note and Indian Blessing are all closely ranked and any one of the three could still grab the unofficial title of “best” Three Year Old Female.

Tip O’the Cap: It actually happened last Monday but I wanted to raise my cap to Ferocious Fires and his connections. Unless you follow New York racing closely you likely don’t know who this horse is but Ferocious Fires is a 5 year old Lite The Fuse entire who recently won 8th career race from 9 starts. He has run almost exclusively in NY bred races but he now has 4 restricted stakes wins and is undefeated on the dirt. He has obviously had an abundance of physical issues as he has managed just 4 starts since October of 2006. But they’ve taken their time with him and he’s rewarded them with two facile restricted stakes victories at Saratoga this summer. He’s in great form right now and they might even squeeze a third start out of him before racing goes back to Belmont.

KC Handicapping: Since I was on vacation I did not manage any picks or analysis aside from continuing my attempt at public handicapping. It’s going rather badly if you haven’t been following. I’m well behind the recognized pro’s. I guess that’s why they get paid to publish their picks. Still I have a good time doing it and it helps me stay involved with the Saratoga meet.

Weekend Overview: I’m on a vacation of sorts so I’ve been keeping up with the action as best I can but posting will be sparse this week. I think the results at Arlington suggested that the Americans we’ve been seeing are not all that great. Although notable horses like Dancing Forever and Gio Ponti were missing for the home team the results the Europeans were able to achieve really do stand out. Don’t get too downhearted though. A little digging reveals that Arlington is not a conclusive indicator of Breeders’ Cup performance. In fact from 1996 to the present only one horse (Lahudood) ran in one of the three big features on Million Day and came back to win a BC race. And of course Lahudood was well beaten in the Beverly D. Arlington Millions Day competitors are a shocking 1 for 51 in the Breeders’ Cup since 1996.

Performance of the Week: Winchester was huge in a spot where he looked live perhaps but he had such muddled form it was hard to see him coming up with a race like that. If anyone was to blow away the field it was supposed to be Tizdejavu but he was exposed and made to look decidedly second class. Winchester bettered the time of the Arlington Million despite running behind an even slower pace. There is no doubt that he would have won the event for older horses with some ease. I’m not sure what to make of this horse going forward because the result does seem to be something of an aberration but there is no taking away from the fact that in the Secretariat Stakes he was as good as any Turf horse seen this year.

Race of the Week: The Best Pal has turned into an extremely controversial race. The winner Kelly Leak was disqualified rightly in my opinion for swerving all over the track and denying Azul Leon a clean trip. The jockey’s involved even got into a fight after the race but if you put all that aside and simply watch the contest it surely was one of the most exciting of the week. Horses were coming from all over the place to contend for the lead and Azul Leon in particular was eye catching in going about 10 wide then swooping inside only to miss by a head at the line.

Flop of the Week: I’m going to come down a little roughly on Precious Kitten. She has been one of my personal favorites but she really ought to have done better in the Beverly D. The distance likely found her out but she should not be losing to horses like Communique and Torque de Queda. She had every chance and simply could not deliver. Connections will now be seriously considering her future as she has two off the board finishes from 3 starts and it’s becoming obvious that the BC is not a great option for her. Perhaps a campaign pointed at the First Lady and Matriarch are all that’s left.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Mauralakana took back top spot in the TCR Turf Female division after losing it last week to Black Mamba. Einstein remains the top turf horse despite the debacle. Spirit One is ranked 4th in the Turf Male division but he will not be eligible unless he runs twice more in America. Tizdejavu really blew a chance to become part of the elite Turf Males. He was no where near as good as the Europeans. Azul Leon is the new leader of the Two Year Old Male division although it’s really in it’s infancy. He’s put up a solid 50 points which is enough in most years to guarantee a top 10 finish. One or two more good stakes performances will almost guarantee him a top 5 ranking by years end.

On the TC Power Ranking front Spirit One was the weeks big winner. He is the #2 ranked Turf Male behind Dancing Forever. Curlin remains in the top spot despite being second to Big Brown in the TCR. Ariege also moved into 4th place in the Three Year Old Female Division. Music Note Indian Blessing and Proud Spell are still her superiors but Ariege has bucket loads of talent and could become a more major player as the year goes on.

Tip O’the Cap: I did not see a great deal this week worthy of special praise or attention. I suppose I’d give the nod to any public handicappers who are either beating the meet at Saratoga or are on pace to get 100 winners. It has been extremely tough to find success at the Spa so those who are deserve some special mention.

KC Handicapping: Not a great week as a handicapper. I failed to pick up on the fact that the Europeans were simply far better than the Americans. I did feel slightly aggrieved when my top pick for the Million, Sudan, was scratched, then we watched a slower horse wire the field. One has to think he could have managed it as well. Rosinka was terribly rank and even bumped the rail in the first quarter. She looked quite terrible.

Saratoga has had my number this week. It’s been a very rough first half of the meet as you can see by my results. The terrible weather has turned many of the races into chaotic affairs. My 36 winners is well behind the pace required to get to 100 for the meet. Still I’m one of those deluded optimists that believes that I can still make something of it.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 5(3)-1-0-1 (-$3.20 -32.00% ROI)
Overall Record: 571(291)-101-98-82 (-$136.20 -11.93% ROI)