I’m sure most of you have heard by now that Aiden O’Brien recorded his 16th Group 1 win of the season a few hours ago with Henrythenavigator. O’Brien has always been one of Europe’s top trainers but his stable is in unbelievable form lately. Frankel’s record of 25 G-1’s in a season is surely under threat. Here is a list of his G-1 wins so far.

April 27: Duke Of Marmalade - Prix Ganay, Longchamp
May 3: Henrythenavigator - 2000 Guineas, Newmarket
May 24: Henrythenavigator - Irish 2000 Guineas, Curragh
May 25: Duke Of Marmalade - Tattersalls Gold Cup, Curragh
May 25: Halfway To Heaven - Irish 1000 Guineas, Curragh
June 6: Soldier Of Fortune - Coronation Cup, Epsom
June 17: Haradasun - Queen Anne Stakes, Royal Ascot
June 17: Henrythenavigator - St James’s Palace Stakes, Royal Ascot
June 18: Duke Of Marmalade - Prince of Wales’s Stakes, Royal Ascot
June 19: Yeats - Gold Cup, Royal Ascot
June 29: Frozen Fire - Irish Derby, Curragh
July 5: Mount Nelson - Coral-Eclipse, Sandown
July 13: Moonstone - Irish Oaks, Curragh
July 26: Duke Of Marmalade - King George, Ascot
July 27: Mastercraftsman - Phoenix Stakes, Curragh
July 30: Henrythenavigator - Sussex Stakes, Goodwood

Ten different horses have combined to capture these 16 G-1’s and aside from Haradasun and Halfway to Heaven all of them are still active and in search of more G-1 contests to plunder.

As many of you know among European trainers Aiden O’Brien is one of the most eager and frequent to ship horses to America. His first invasion of this year will come in the Arlington Million and it’s quite possible that he’ll have a horse in most major Turf events in the fall. He often tries the Keeneland Mile and Joe Hirsch Turf Classic but with the abundance of stars he’s got he may send even more this year.

Let’s look at a breakdown of some of his stars who might be contesting races in America.

Duke of Marmalade - I wrote about him in my BC Turf Future Look. On that occasion he was still somewhat under the radar but I always thought he was the best horse in the stable. Now he’s won 4 G-1’s on the trot and is the hottest older horse in Europe. This horse is tough as nails and he acts on any ground although firm seems to be his favorite. I think he’d appreciate American courses very much. He has the making of an odds on favorite for the Turf. My only concern with him is that he is likely to come to America after a long and strenous season which coupled with the travel could leave him susceptible to a bounce like Dylan Thomas. If O’Brien gives him a break this summer or fall he could be unstoppable.

Soldier Of Fortune - He began the year as the stable #1 and has lost that title more through the brilliance of the Duke rather than poor efforts on his part. He is not as quick as Duke of Marmalade, he accelerates gradually. He also appears to prefer a bit of cut in the ground. To me he looks like more of a Canadian International horse than a BC Turf horse. The course and weather should suit him better but he is absolutely top drawer and may well be the Arc winner if he can overcome the Aga Khan’s duo.

Henrythenavigator - He is the horse of the hour with a recent win in the Sussex. Four G-1’s in a row and he’s drawing favorable comparisons to Rock of Gibraltar. I personally believe that he is every bit as good as the Rock. He is more suspect on soft ground but on the firm he is unbelievable. He deserves to be odds on in any Turf mile event he contests. I doubt we’ll see him in the Keeneland Mile but he’d surely have it at his mercy as well as the BC Mile is he chooses to go. I know Rock of Gibraltar lost the BC Mile but let’s be real. He was the best horse in the race and deserved to win. Henrythenavigator will also be the best horse in the race if he chooses the Mile. Unfortunately for those looking for a single he seems more likely for the Classic. In the Classic he’s a total crapshot. We have no indication of how he’d like it. Kingmambo does decently with his European synthetic progeny but really we know very little. At this point I would not take him in the Classic. He has never been beyond a Mile and coupled with the new surface it’s too much all at once.

Mount Nelson - He is set for the Arlington Million and is possibly the weakest of all O’Brien’s G-1 winners. His last start, a win in the Eclipse was not only his first G-1 win in open company it was also his first win since he was a 2yo. He looks like a horse who slightly prefers soft ground. Overall I think he is a bet against on American soil.

Frozen Fire - He is slightly second tier but exactly the type to contest a race like the Joe Hirsch or the Canadian international. Ballydoyle often sends a horse with his profile for one of those races. I think he’s good and developing but inconsistent. He’ll likely be a nice 4yo but for now you need to take each race on a case by case basis. I think he’ll take another G-1 but he is by no means certain to love America. I’d demand a price on him.

Moonstone - We really don’t know much about her at this point. With just 4 lifetime starts and a single win she would seem to have plently of scope for improvement. The interesting thing about her is that she finished second as a maiden in the Epsom Oaks, then broke her maiden next time with a win in the Irish Oaks. There aren’t many fillies who do that. Her pedigree suggests a slight preference for soft ground but she is closely related to L’Ancresse who of course finished second in the BC FM Turf at Santa Anita. She might be a horse who really needs 12f to show her best so I’d be leery about the FM Turf until we see more from her.

Mastercraftsman - He is O’Brien’s youngest G-1 winner and after handling Art Connoisseur so easily in the Phoenix he seemingly has the world at his feet. He looks bred to be a miler and given the speed and acceleration he’s shown already I’d say a mile will eventually be perfect for him. It’s tough to say whether or not Coolmore would want their best 2yo coming to America. They did send Tomahawk, Hold That Tiger and of course Johannesburg but those horses had American pedigrees. Mastercraftsman is not nearly as American but there is now the Juvenile Turf on offer. I still suspect they won’t send him. They’ll have some second stringers to contest that race.

It was a wet and wild week at the Spa. It opened amidst an absolute deluge and we never saw a Turf race until Friday evening.

Still the races were chocked full of quality. We saw allowance appearances from Visionaire, Mushka and Wanderin Boy as well as some good looking first time starters.

Munnings likely owns the best 2yo debut by any horse of the meet so far. Cribnote also ran a huge race but it came in statebred company. Munnings, on the other hand, won like a $1.7 million dollar 2yo should win. He overcome what appears to be a very nice 2yo of Nick Zito’s, Just A Coincidence. Oddly enough both of Zito’s most promising 2yo colts from opening week ended up finishing second to superior looking horses. Cognito denied the Zito Brave Victory in the first juvenile race of the meet. Both of them look to have nice future’s ahead.

The 2yo stakes races were a bit of a disappointment to my eye. Neither Jardin nor Desert Party impressed me all that much. Both races were terribly slow and although they came in the slop I do suspect that these are not a pair of killers. They are perhaps worth opposing next time out. Jardin looks like a horse who will have a solid career but is not brilliant enough to contend once this division fully blooms. Desert Party sat a perfect trip behind a solid pace and still did not finish very quickly.

The Whitney often crowns an emerging powerhouse in the older horse division. Horses like Lawyer Ron, Invasor, Roses In May and Awesome Again all won the Whitney and springboarded to the top of the division but I feel with Commentator that it was merely a lesson in basic race tactics. If you give a quality speed horse an easy lead he will be tough to catch. It’s hard to get truly excited about a horse who has always faded with pace pressure and is set to contest a listed stakes race next. He also might bypass the Breeders’ Cup altogether.

To my eye the most impressive horse of the first week of racing at Saratoga was Desert Key. He was seen narrowly losing the Amsterdam to the classy Kodiak Kowboy. Desert Key was making his fifth lifetime start and his first in graded stakes company. The speedy Eaton’s Gift outbroke him but was hard ridden to stay in front through a first quarter in :21.79. Anyone who has followed this crop knows that Eaton’s Gift is a very swift horse but just after they drilled the first quarter Desert Key went right by him under a hammer lock and posted a half in :44.19. He opened up two lengths around the turn without being asked and set sail for home. You always knew that a classy horse like Kodiak Kowboy would be tough to deny after sitting behind fast fractions like that but Desert Key was not giving an inch. He battled Kodiak Kowboy all through the lane and was just denied by a nose at the line. The pair got an excellent 108 Beyer figure for the effort which puts them on par with J Be K and many of the older sprinters out there. I suspect that Desert Key is going to turn into a fantastic horse, maybe even the best sprinter in the nation once he fully develops.

Handicapping in the opening week was pretty difficult at least for me. I hit just 14 winners. That’s my lowest total ever for an opening week at the Spa. I managed to show a slight profit in dirt races it was the Turf that was killing me. I suppose it was to my benefit that Turf racing was held off until Friday. My biggest problem though was that my highest priced winner paid just $11.60. Consequently my picks showed a flat bet loss of -$16.10 or -13.88%. It’s not an insurmountable deficit but it was a rather discouraging week. My selections will continue to be posted on the sidebar each day. They might be useful for knowing who to oppose at least on the sod.

Best of luck to everyone for week two of America’s greatest race meet.

Weekend Overview: The popular Commentator notches another tally for the venerable old geldings. As much as we mourn the early retirements of many stars it is worth mentioning that just in the last few years we’ve been treated to some great performances by Commentator, Lava Man, Evening Attire, The Tin Man and Perfect Drift. There has been plenty to cheer for if you’ve been watching. The unfortunate part about the Whitney is that it really seemed like a dash of cold water to the aspirations of horses like Rising Moon, Solar Flare and Notional. None of them look like top class. A few horses who might have gotten lost in the shuffle are Storm Mesa and Wayzata Bay. Both are having very solid seasons out of the limelight and I hope they continue with their good form.

Performance of the Week: Commentator and Ginger Punch were both very impressive but Commentator had things his own way and Ginger Punch was facing inferior horses. Street Boss on the other hand was facing good horses and had to deal with some adversity. As is now his custom he dropped right out of the back of the Bing Crosby field and had no say in the early tactics. Once he got going around the far turn he was forced to go extremely wide since about 5 other horses were launching bids at the same time. You hardly ever see a horse go this wide by design but it didn’t seem to bother Street Boss one bit. Down on the inside In Summation had a bit of traffic trouble to deal with but he still finished with vigor and confirmed the class of Street Boss’s effort. In Summation is the classiest synthetic sprinter there is and Street Boss was superior on this day.

Race of the Week: I thought the Henry Walton Stakes, a listed event on Sunday at Saratoga was the most captivating race of the weekend. It’s a race designed to cater to late developing three year olds who might want a shot at the Travers. This year’s running might have produced a pair of Travers contenders. Mambo In Seattle and You And I Forever both came into the race riding win streaks in route races and they battled it out all the way down the lane. Mambo In Seattle proved superior and really looks like a top rung horse in the making. These two went faster than the Jim Dandy competitors just a race later.

Flop of the Week: There are a lot of flops to choose from but I was likely most disappointed with Wait A While. I know the course had some give to it and she likes it hard. But she showed very little against a well matched but not overly tough group of fillies. I’m sure her connections will either hope for a hard course in the Ballston Spa or send her to the Palomar in California. They really have no other option with this horse now that she’s proven to be so picky.

TC Mover’s and Shakers: Street Boss, Commentator and Ginger Punch were the biggest movers in the TCR standings, I suppose it stands to reason as they were the highest profile G-1 winners this weekend. All three of them made it into the top 10 overall. Forever Together could only manage to take 5th spot in the Turf Female division on the back of her first graded stakes turf win. It’s the first week of the brand new TC Power Rankings being calculated live. The biggest gainers were Commentator and Ginger Punch as they made it into the top 10 overall. Street Boss still has quite a bit of climbing to do if he’s to get to that level. Wait A While dropped from her perch atop the Turf Female Power Rankings with her poor effort in the Diana. Precious Kitten now takes over top spot among the active horses in that division. Not many changes in the power rankings aside from those.

Tip O’the Cap: A few people deserve a congratulatory nod this week and I’ll just mention each one briefly. Kent Desormeaux got his 5,000th win this week. Nick Zito finally found Commentator a two turn race, and Aiden O’Brien continues to win every G-1 race in sight. He took the Phoenix and the King George this weekend and I’m sure some trainers are considering coming to America just to get away from the guy.

KC Handicapping: Not a good week at the windows. All four of my selections ran poorly. I was basically way off track in both races.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 4(2)-0-0-0 (-$8.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 564(287)-100-98-81 (-$129.00 -11.44%)

Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap
Wow, is this race ever tough. Bustin Stones is heavy weight based on recent form but he’ll have his hands full in this race. I personally consider Sammarco to be the only horse who is truly in over his head. Every other horse has a shot. For me that makes Bustin Stones a poor play, he could definitely win but I could say the same about a bunch of others who won’t be 2/1. I also think that with the speed of Black Seventeen, Bustin Stones will get a rude awakening. The pace will be fast, it has to be, these are very fast horses and they won’t mess around. Black Seventeen is the fastest horse in the race and I think he’ll edge to a narrow lead. Bustin Stones will press him every step of the first half mile and Thor’s Echo will be tracking them intently with First Defence. I suspect that First Defence is a bit of a fraud while Thor’s Echo could easily return to his best form. Don’t be misled by the failed Dubai excursion. This horse can still run and if he wasn’t so rusty he might have beaten Benny in the True North. He looked very good he just didn’t have the gas in the final furlong. He’ll have the gas this time. I don’t like that he’s drawn on the inside I think it might make him force the issue a bit early because the two horses directly outside of him have serious speed. If you’re looking for the bomb of the race check out E Z Warrior. He was thought to be a sensation early in his career but injury has seen his reputation take a hit. If you boil down his record you’ll see that he only has one poor result in a dirt sprint. That was in last years Vosburgh where he broke like a shot from the inside and was sent to press the pace of Fabulous Strike. That was obviously a lost cause and he wound up 5th but only, a long neck from second. He was inexperienced still and those were some serious horses. I think if he’s taken back a bit he’ll have a huge chance here. He has been working very well and this might be the race where he starts to fulfill the potential he hinted at earlier. Black Seventeen is a horse I like quite a bit but I think the pace will just get to him a bit. If Bustin Stones happens to scratch then I think Black Seventeen would be worth a win wager.

Thor’s Echo
E Z Warrior

Whitney Handicap
This race might not have real star power like it’s had in the past but it’s an extremely even field and it’s possible that some horses will begin to look like stars after this race. Of course a horse like Commentator already is what he is but Solar Flare, Rising Moon, Merchant Marine and Notional are all horses that could conceivably use this race as a stepping stone to prominence. As I sit down to write this I’m not entirely sure which way I’ll go. There are tons of enticing price options and I could make a case for no less than six entrants. I’ll start with the basics though and go from there. I expect the pace to be solid but not too fast. Bad news for Commentator as Tasteyville is in the form of his life and will surely press him every step of the way. I can’t use a confirmed quitter like Commentator when he’s got three declining speed figures and he’ll have pace pressure. In fact I much prefer Tasteyville between the two of them. If the track is off a bit he’ll have a huge chance. He’s a serious horse in the mud and he’s doing better than ever right now. I do suspect the track will be fast though and I think that Notional and Solar Flare are the most complete challengers. Both look pretty fast with good tactical speed. It’s hard to fault Notional’s record on the dirt, he looked fantastic in his last race and if he runs to that level again he’ll be extremely tough. Solar Flare has a bit more tactical speed than Notional but has not shown the same brilliance yet. He absolutely didn’t stay in the Suburban. He would have looked quite good here if that race had been 9f. I think I’ll focus on these two for the first spot but an upset would not shock me too much because horses like Rising Moon and Student Council also have every chance. Rising Moon apparently had an infection in the Suburban. He might be set for a huge move forward. Student Council is a solid horse who is likely G-1 caliber but is usually better with an extra furlong. Asmussen is hot at the Spa but I think he’ll be a wise guy horse and the price will not reflect his chances. He’s also a bit slow. If you want to juice up the exotics don’t discount A.P. Arrow. He bombed his last race but he basically lost all chance at the start. He loves Saratoga and he ought to bounce right back to near his top form. The problem with him is that he likes to lose, even when he runs a winners race. I’m probably going to use Notional with Solar Flare on top with A.P Arrow, Student Council and Rising Moon underneath. I’d also include Tasteyville if the track is off.

Notional
Solar Flare

As most of the people who read this blog are aware I am quite an advocate of point systems. For years I’ve worked on and implement a point standings system know as the Thoroughbred Championship Rankings (TCR). The purpose of this system is to accurately assess the accomplishments of race horses and compile them into a single number. Fans can compare the numbers directly, it’s the closest thing racing has to standings and if you look back over the historical data provided in the link you can see that the TCR does what it should. It very accurately assess’ a horses accomplishments.

I have recently been working on another similar project and the first prototype is ready for release. A popular way of ranking teams in the major sports is this thing called power rankings. Essentially the idea behind power rankings is to find who the best teams currently are. Not necessarily who has the most wins or losses, although wins often accompany a high level of performance, but who is actually better. The TCR and all other point standings like it only assess the cumulative accomplishments. They tell you which has has done more, not which horse is better.

For instance many observers would say that Music Note is the best Three Year old Female in training. She has been brilliant lately and she handily defeated Proud Spell in their last meeting. However a point system like the TCR has Proud Spell (127.60) in first and Music Note in third (94.26). I don’t think it’s a case of inaccuracy on the part of the TCR point system. If the season ended today Proud Spell really has done more that is award worthy. I think it’s just a case where it’s not displaying the more brilliant horse as superior because it was never meant to do that.

Power Rankings are supposed to tell you who the best really are and I’ve just finished the first release of the new TC Power Rankings. The idea of this system is to identify the most brilliant, or the best horses in North America. Often brilliance and accomplishment will coincide. For instance Curlin and Big Brown are ranked #1 and #2 in both systems. But in the earlier case mentioned in the Three Year Old Female division Music Note (31.42) is first and Proud Spell (21.27) is back in second. Music Note is in fact the 9th ranked active horse in the nation. These numbers aren’t just plucked out of thin air either. It’s not a ranking based on my opinion or the polling of others. It’s a statistically based system and I’ve included data going back to 1999 so you may view how the numbers look historically.

There even seems to be a correlation between TC Power Rankings and actual race results. Although it has not been fully explored it is worth noting that all eight winners of the traditional BC races in 2007 were among the top 4 TCPR ranked horses in those races. Big Brown was also ranked second at the time of the Kentucky Derby.

My plan for the TC Power Rankings for now is top keep a list of the top 10 active horses on the sidebar. Given my blogs current format I don’t want to be listing all the divisional leaders like I do with the TCR but all the information in the spreadsheet will always be available via a link on the sidebar. Current divisional leaders include Curlin, Zenyatta, Big Brown, Music Note, Benny The Bull, Intangaroo, Dancing Forever and Wait A While.

It’s Saratoga eve, one of my favorite days of the year. Saratoga is a summer long celebration of horse racing it reminds us about all that is right with this game. High quality animals are seen every day of the week. It’s a micro model of what racing as a whole ought to be doing. Getting better by getting smaller. Less races and fewer racing dates mean higher quality, larger fields, they may even get the attention of the odd fan or two.

One sad note is that disputes between NYRA and OTB’s seem to have resulted in the cessation of the live audio and the free race replays. This is a real slap in the face for fans who love to follow along but may not have the requisite television channels.

As I always do with Saratoga I’ll be making picks for each race. Last year I had an abysmal 78 winners and failed to beat the win with straight win bets on each selection. I had beaten the meet in both 2006 and 2005 and I hope to return to that form. 96 winners is my best ever result using this format. I hope to top 100.

Instead of cluttering up the main body of this blog they’ll be listed on the sidebar. Analysis of certain races will be available by clicking on the selection in the sidebar. I won’t analyze every race in print but sometimes it’s necessary even for my own decision making process. A full breakdown of my overall record will also be available.

I hope everyone enjoys the racing over the next six weeks!

Weekend Overview: This is the road to the Breeders’ Cup season and those with a keen eye will have picked out several horses who will have big chances at Santa Anita this fall. Well Armed oozed class all the way around in the San Diego and if Curlin does not show up to the Classic he may be the horse who gives Big Brown his toughest challenge. Music Note was scintillating, clearly a top rung horse with a future. Spring House showed no ill effects from his journey to Dubai and should move forward as well.

Performance of the Week: There really has been a changing of the guard in the last two months in the Three Year Old Female division. It looked as though Proud Spell and Eight Belles has everyone by the throat and Indian Blessing was likely to dominate all the one turn races. Now Zaftig and Indyanne have emerged as some of the most dangerous one turn fillies and Music Note looks more than a match for Proud Spell and even looks better than the ill fated Eight Belles did. Music Note was dominant in the CCA Oaks this weekend but the most impressive part was not the fact that she beat a decent filly in Little Belle. It was the way she accelerated so quickly once she was already clear. Her cruising speed was enough to stalk the pace and get to the front but her acceleration once asked was breathtaking and she really does look like a most special filly. I’m not sure that any dirt filly will be able to handle her once she develops. Even Zenyatta may have a tough time with her if she takes to synthetic tracks.

Race of the Week: The Virginia Derby was heart stopping but for me a race like the Eddie Read where multiple horses have a shot is more exciting. Monzante finally broke through with a top class win but Whatsthescript was somewhat unlucky. Both horses have found new life recently and there is little between them. Regular readers likely know that I’m a big Spring House fan. I personally thought this race was perfect. He was flying at the finish, maybe better than the winner. He’s a 12f horse so don’t put too much stock in the fact that he was just 4th. This was a perfect race for both Spring House and Monzante. Whatsthescript’s connections will perhaps feel slightly aggrieved that he couldn’t hold on for a few more yards.

Flop of the Weekend: I don’t want to pile the pressure on Lava Man’s connections but his was definitely the worst performance by a top class horse this weekend. To finish last after looking like he was full of life last time has to be very disappointing. I’m not sure what the future should hold for him. I’d be inclined to give him a few more starts simply because he has looked quite good on occasion. This might have been just a bad day.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The biggest news maker of the week has to be Music Note. Despite having only 3 starts and despite some very stiff competition in the Three Year Old Female division she has leaped into 3rd place and is closing in on the top spot. Well Armed moves into the #10 spot in the overall rankings just ahead of Surf Cat (#11) whom he defeated on Saturday. Monzante has moved into 13th overall and 4th in the Turf Male rankings.

Tip O’the Cap: Not too many horses are as popular as Evening Attire. His price always gets knocked down a bit simply because race fans love the gallant old grey. This weekend he was actually a little value at 2/1 as he crushed his opposition in the Greenwood Cup earning a possible trip to Santa Anita. His connections may not want to send him out West again but racing fans a surely hoping he’ll show up. The Breeders’ Cup Marathon could use a popular horse like this to kick off it’s first running. The connections of Evening Attire deserve congratulations for keeping him fit sound and happy this late into his career.

KC Handicapping: Well it turns out the Gio Ponti is better than I thought. I loved the look of Old Man Buck in this spot but I did recognize Gio to be the better horse. I even liked Court Vision to finish well underneath, it’s a shame you don’t get anything for being on the right track but making the wrong final decision. Old Man Buck was not well served by going to the front. Expect him to be ridden from off the pace next time. Gio Ponti was at the limit of his stamina. He’ll be a top class miler once his connections figure him out fully, although there are few mile races open to him now.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 1(1)-0-0-0 (-$2.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 560(285)-100-98-81 (-$121.00 -10.80% ROI)

Virginia Derby
This race puts me in an odd position because I’m going to go against a horse I think very highly of and in fact I quite exciting about my play in this race. The horse I think very highly of is Gio Ponti, I’ve actually played him in all his lifetime starts to date. He looks like a superb mile prospect. It would not shock me to see him develop into a G-1 type of horse later in his career. He settles professionally, he’s very brave and lightning quick. I’m a sucker for those quick accelerating types but like Artie Schiller back in 2004 he looks more like a miler who will find this distance a bit stout. Artie still managed to run second behind Kitten’s Joy in this fixture and there is no Kitten’s Joy in here but I still think Gio Ponti will be found out by the distance. If not, great, that means he’s much better than I think he is but I won’t hold a loss against him. The horse I’m looking to play with both fists is Old Man Buck. He the single of the weekend for me. He’s got great form on the grass and I think he was brought up to this race perfectly. He set a new career high in his yearly debut but found Tizdejavu too tough. There is no shame in that. Tizdejavu might be the best 3yo turf horse since Kitten’s Joy. Old Man Buck ran an encouraging race and looks set for another lifetime best. I think he’ll win this race impressively over a gallant Gio Ponti. I like Court Vision to fill out the minor placings. Firmer turf should suit him while it should be a bit of a detrement to Sailor’s Cap. I don’t believe that he is as good as his last race. I expect a regression on firmer ground.

Old Man Buck

It’s been a while since I’ve written about standings. Point Standings are something I believe in very strongly. I’ve spent years working on a point system that works and I really believe that the benefits would be huge for racing.

Think about it. We could have a presence in daily newspapers again around the country. Not with the tedious printing of race results like in the past but with complete standings - Overall and by division. The average sports fan could easily make themselves aware of the most currently accomplished horses.

For those who are already ardent followers it would help to quantify what they see on the track and help generate more interest in clashes conducted outside the limelight.

If the point system was also used as a part of year end award consideration then it would not only aid the award process but it would in turn encourage top horses to run more often. Does anyone think that IEAH, hungry for success and recognition, would give a completely healthy Kip Deville just four starts if the championship rested on earning points? The focus would go back to running races instead of waiting just to run on ESPN.

Qualification for the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup could be decided by the same process.

It simply makes too much sense to ignore. I encourage you to take a look at how the TCR is calculated and also review how that system would have worked over the last 9 years and is working currently. It makes sense people. Racing really needs to get on board.

Del Mar opens it’s 2008 boutique meet in a few hours amid claims that the surface, which took so much criticism last year, is better than it has ever been. I’ll be quite interested to see how it plays although I probably will not make many selections over the course of the meet. I am more interested in watching for possible Breeders’ Cup horses. Traditionally when the Breeders’ Cup is contested at Santa Anita a good number of the eventual winners were seen in action at Del Mar during the summer.

Last year was a particularly terrible year for the Del Mar runners in the Breeders’ Cup. Partly because few of them came all the way to the Jersey Shore and partly because some good horses like Indian Blessing would have run at Del Mar but were chased away by surface concerns. A better surface and closer proximity to the BC venue should see Del Mar hosting more than one eventual BC champ this summer.

Here are the Breeders’ Cup records for horses who contested a race at Del Mar during the same season. I split the Turf and Main Track horses because the Turf record is far worse. It gives a skewed picture of how these horses actually do. For the most part the West, and Del Mar specifically, does not host the highest quality Turf racing.

2007 - Monmouth
Main Track: 12-0-1-1
Turf: 2-0-0-0

2006 - Churchill Downs
Main Track: 18-1-1-1
Turf: 5-0-1-0

2005 - Belmont
Main Track: 17-1-2-1
Turf: 6-1-0-0

2004 - Lone Star
Main Track: 11-1-1-1
Turf: 8-0-0-0

2003 - Santa Anita
Main Track: 20-3-3-2
Turf: 9-1-1-0

The last time the BC was in California the home team likely outperformed. It might be unrealistic to expect half the BC winners to have run at Del Mar but it is certainly something to keep an eye on.