Blogs take many forms, some focus on horse health issues, some on lighthearted alternative content, some quantify industry happenings while others advocate for reform. I rarely write about anything aside from racing itself but on occasion I do acknowledge that there is more going on than what happens between the gate and the wire.

The blogging world is buzzing with the advent of the Paulick Report and NTRA chief Alex Waldrop’s mention of one of the TBA posts and this is actually significant news.

For those who aren’t aware the TBA is the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, it’s a collection of active racing blogs from all over North America and the world. Some are really top class writers who are gaining clout in the industry while others are just regular Joe’s who provide entertaining content. They all blend together to provide a ton of good daily reading.

Why is any of this noteworthy? It confirms what many bloggers have been feeling for some time. More than just their mothers are reading. Perhaps for the first time in history regular people, without the last names Hancock, Phipps or Gaines, have an ear with some of racings most influential people. Not everyone who has an opinion has a useful or valid opinion but on occasion the fans of racing do come with some great ideas and legitimate concerns. It’s a great encouragement that for the first time in history the powers that be can at least choose to ignore the common fan. You can’t really ignore something if you don’t know it exists. Now that they know they’ll be making a daily choice to read and act or ignore. Either way, the message is being spread and what one generation rejects the next often embraces.

Racing forums have been around for many years but blogs are a somewhat newer convention. Forums rarely catch the eye because of their format and the fact that discussion and responses make the truly salient posts harder to find. Blogs may not necessarily have better, more relevant information but at least it’s provided in a concise, easy to locate manner.

I personally am not a part of the TBA but I am a faithful reader and I am quite impressed with the impact they’re having. The TBA was always going to have a negligible impact on non racing fans because typically those who aren’t fans aren’t looking for racing blogs but they’re doing their best at impacting racing from within. Organizations like the NTRA are the ones who can reach out to new fans but the TBA and independent blogs now have the power to at least table suggestions to those who have the power to make changes.

It’s a great day for racing.

Weekend Overview: Favorites struck with alarming consistency this weekend. I’m having a hard time remembering a more formful weekend. The all stakes Pick 6 at Churchill Downs paid just $48. The longest priced winner in the sequence was Tizdejavu who paid $8.00 as the second choice. Curlin punctuated a top class weekend where the stars lived up to their billing. No one could get near Jess Jackson’s star. The 1-2 finishers in last years BC Distaff also confirmed that they’re still near the top of the class. Ginger Punch and Hystericalady both galloped off to easy victories. Unbridled Belle made her seasonal debut in the Obeah Handicap and looked much better than she did last year. She will be tough this summer. Dreaming of Anna continued her remarkable run of form on the grass running her record to 11-8-3-0. Triple Crown challengers Golden Spikes, Pyro and Cool Coal Man all got back to winning ways with minor stakes wins as well.

Performance of the Week: I think most people would likely give this to the powerful Curlin, the stylish Ginger Punch or maybe the speedy Hystericalady but for me the most visually impressive performance of the weekend belonged to Tizdejavu in the Jefferson Cup. He broke on top and established the lead and never looked back. But the decisive moment came on the far turn where he put a clear five lengths on the rest of the field and powered to the line. He thoroughly crushed this group and it appears like the Turf division has a possible new star. He’s got speed but he’s bred to get more distance. Perhaps he’s the new Kitten’s Joy? We’ll have to wait and see.

Race of the Week: It wasn’t a graded stake but the Scottish Monk Stakes at Belmont was a phenomenal contest to behold. Perhaps the only favorite to lose this weekend was Cosmonaut. He was 3-5 in this listed 8f stakes race and it appeared as though he’d have the field at his mercy. Godolphin’s Tam Lin had other ideas. He challenged Cosmonaut as they swung for home and the two battled all the way down to the line. Cosmonaut seemed to hold the advantage all the way until the last stride where it appeared that they had dead heated but the photo showed a slight preference to Tam Lin. They were as tight as two horses could be.

Flop of the Weekend: It’s hard to find a case where a well backed horse did much worse than expected. All the favorites ran quite well and there were no major disappointments. But I think one could point to Grasshopper as a general disappointment this year. He ran so well at Saratoga in the Travers and the world seemed at his feet. Since then he’s gone 6-1-3-0 while being favored five times with just a single G-3 victory to his credit. Grasshopper was supposed to be the new kid on the block who could tackle Curlin. He never got anywhere near him in the Foster.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Curlin finally gets added to ranking and debuts in the #2 spot behind Big Brown. His races in Dubai to count towards his total TCR score but a horse needs to run at least once in North America to be included. For year end award consideration Curlin would need three starts in America and that looks by no means certain at this point.

Tip O’the Cap: I thought it was a poor decision to thrown Einstein to the wolves against Curlin and company in the Stephen Foster. He had some form on dirt but nothing to suggest that he could win. Einstein however is identifying himself as a thoroughly classy individual. He did appear to struggle in the Foster but he still managed to run second. I love seeing a tough old warrior like this perform at a high level even when they’re struggling.

KC Handicapping: This is pretty frustrating, it was not a good week to go against the favorites and that’s what I was trying to do. All my picks ran well but only good enough to fill the bottom of the exotics.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 3(2)-0-2-1 (-$6.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 547(277)-99-97-79 (-$121.60 -11.11% ROI)

Regret Stakes
It is not the highest profile race of the weekend but it may offer one of the best chances to cash a ticket on someone other than the favorite. I happen to think that Curlin, Dreaming of Anna and Hystericalady are all pretty solid favorites. Law of averages suggest that one of them might lose but I can’t make a case against any of them. I can, however, see a way to beat Pure Clan. Pure Clan is a pretty high profile horse and is also undefeated on the grass but she is not unbeatable. On the contrary she has actually been quite beatable since turning three. She has been facing very good horses but these challengers today are no slouches. A horse I really like is CJ’s Leelee, aside from her races on Polytrack she’s been a very good horse especially on the grass. Her facile victory over Churchill’s sod was her best race as a 2yo. She showed that she still has some run in her debut this year. I don’t think going to the front was the very best move tactically and she is more likely to be rated in this race. It was the perfect type of race to build off of. I know she lost to Pure Clan in their only meeting but that was on the dirt, I think the change of surface and passage of time will make her the superior horse. At least for a day. You also have to respect Zee Zee. The only horse to beat her on the grass was Nownownow who was recognized as the best Turf 2yo. No female has ever beaten her on the grass and she was the easiest money of the Derby weekend. The horse she beat came back to win next out and she recently drilled her first bullet since March. She’s ready to go and is the horse to beat. I still think CJ’s Leelee can pull off the mild upset but I’d use both.

C J’s Leelee
Zee Zee

Ogden Phipps Handicap
Keep a close eye on the scratches. The Stronach entry is formidable but I think one half of the entry is unbeatable and the other is vulnerable. Strangely it’s not champion Ginger Punch that I see as invincible, it’s her fill in Spring Waltz. Ginger Punch will run as long as Frankel is satisfied that her foot is in good shape and no other issues come up. But she has some vulnerability. Spring Waltz on the other hand has been immense this year and would overwhelm this group with some ease. Ginger Punch is still a solid contender but with the question marks over her fitness are a cause for concern. Her form is also of some concern. She has received much lower figures for her last two performances and it could be a sign that she is not what she was. Admittedly Ginger Punch is a horse I’ve never actually had a ton of faith in. I think that although she was a champion she was well below the standard of past champs like Azeri, Sightseek and Ashado. If someone steps up they can go with her. The horse I’m looking to step up is Golden Velvet. She was involved in a controversy when it was found that she had been sponged in the Sabin Handicap. She still managed to dead heat for the win that day. Spring Waltz crushed her at Gulfstream but then she took a big step forward in the Sixty Sails. Her barn mate should be setting a decent pace and Golden Velvet ought to be tracking Ginger Punch all the way around. I think she can get it done and confirm herself as a genuine contender in this division. So the wager is for Golden Velvet as long as Ginger Punch stays in.

Golden Velvet

The period after the Belmont is the beginning of the road to the Breeders’ Cup. The Three year olds are almost the sole focus until June but the best and highest quality racing happens in the build up to the Breeders’ Cup and in the main event itself.

On the Derby trail there are a myriad of Top 10’s and Derby Dozen’s to help give perspective and maybe alert you to some up and coming stars but for the Breeders’ Cup there is very little of that type of thing. I’ll look to fill that gap a little. A few weeks back I took a look at some of the top contenders for the BC Mile and today I’ll do the BC Turf.

As a side note a great way to keep track of the top contenders for the Breeders’ Cup races is the TCR standings. Their aim is to accurately assess a horse’s accomplishments and boil it down to one number. Over the many years they’ve been in use they have proven to be quite accurate.

Breeders’ Cup Turf

Soldier of Fortune - He is the best middle distance horse in one of the most powerful stables in the world. Coolmore always sends a strong team to the Breeders’ Cup and this horse may head that group. He was a very good 3yo winning several stakes including the Irish Derby but he did seem just a step behind championship class. Turning four may have fixed that particular problem as he was very good in the Coronation Cup. Do not be surprised if this horse ends up being the odds on favorite on Breeders’ Cup day. He has all the tools to become the highest profile horse in Europe.

Ramonti - He is not a recognized 12f horse but he does not have a poor record at the distance. He was actually beaten just a head in the Italian Derby which was his only try at the distance. Not a poor effort and we all know that American courses require less stamina. Falbrav was beaten by two noses in the last BC Turf at Santa Anita and he was much more of a miler. Ramonti is a classy street fighter. He has only been worse than second twice in a 19 race career. He has already won G-1’s in 3 different nations and we know he has no trouble travelling. He is a huge threat if Godolphin decide to send him for this race.

Duke of Marmalade - Another Ballydoyle hotpot underlining both the strength of that operation and of the European challenge in this race overall. They always believed he was a good horse and he was campaigned aggressively as a 3yo. He has run in 8 straight G-1 events. Despite being placed well over his head on many occasions he was never worse than 4th. As a 4yo he has shaken off the bridesmaid complex and has won two G-1’s in a row. Some may still see him as second string behind Soldier of Fortune and while his reputation may never be as high that does not mean he couldn’t beat him head to head.

Spring House - His name does not immediately come to mind when you think of the titans of the Turf but he is already basically fast enough to beat his North American peers at the distance. The trip to Dubai was ambitious and he did not too badly to run 7th. At Santa Anita he will be a tough horse to handle. He is 2 for 2 on the course, both races coming at 12f and his two highest career Beyer figures were achieved in those races. He is North America’s top hope.

Youmzain - He has become Europe’s Better Talk Now in many ways. He has run second in a ton of high profile races and has become loved for his late running ways. Always a threat in eah race he runs. We know he has the capability to win virtually any race. He may lack the mindset at present but you never know how a a trip to North America might shake him up.

Getaway - He put in an ugly race in the Coronation Cup on Epsom Derby weekend but prior to that he looked quite good. It’s possible that he just didn’t handle the unique course at Epsom. Andre Fabre is a master conditioner and this horse has flashed talent good enough to win at the highest level. There is much to like.

Casual Conquest - Most recently third in the Epsom Derby behind New Approach he has a lot of upside. The Derby was just his 3rd career start so he should get much better. Dermot Weld is well known for his willingness to ship his horses around so there is a good chance we’ll see him if he’s healthy.

New Approach - Epsom Derby winner and a horse of considerable talent. I’m not sure if 12f is his best distance but in North America he would handle it fine. He always gives his best effort and he’s a tough customer. Hopefully they lighten up his campaign in the summer to have him at his best for the fall.

Dancing Forever - I think Dancing Forever is the best Eastern turf horse in America at the 12f distance. Eastern horses do not typically do as well going west for the Breeders’ Cup but he is as good as any.

Einstein - He is a very classy horse, I think the distance is against him a bit, that’s why I have him ranked lower than some others. But if you’re judging pure class he’s got a great chance. I like his tactical speed as well. My concern is that they don’t use him up too much over the summer.

Weekend Overview: A weekend of highs and lows that did not live up to it’s billing as one that would see the Triple Crown drought broken but the racing was absolutely top class. Anyone who let Big Brown’s failure in the Belmont detract significantly from their enjoyment of the weekend is missing out. We saw some great races from Benny The Bull and Dancing Forever. J Be K stamped himself as a legitimate top tier sprinter and the underrated Rosinka got her campaign off to a winning start. Expect big things from her. It was great to see Lava Man sticking his neck out like in the old days and you even have to be proud of Better Talk Now who looked a possible winner until traffic problems cruelly ended his bid in the Manhattan.

Performance of the Week: I thought J Be K was powerful in the Woody Stephens. On this evidence he looks like a horse who could definitely challenge the best sprinters in the nation. He has turned into everything his connections hoped except he can’t route but that was never realistic anyway. He went straight to the front and set fast fractions. At the 6f mark he would have been well ahead of Benny The Bull and he did not slow much in the final furlong either. The way he was able to accelerate again after setting those fractions was extremely impressive.

Race of the Week: Take your pick, the Manhattan was enthralling and the Hollywood Oaks spectacular but I preferred the True North personally. Perhaps it’s because I was on the two principles but I just love the effort but forth by the top pair. Man of Danger came out running and despite his longshot status he clearly was in no mood to do his competition any favours. Benny The Bull on the other hand looked to be struggling and when they swung into the stretch it looked as if he would not get on track. But he dug down deep and started to rally. Even in the last 100 yards it seemed as if he would run out of ground but he would not be denied. The sign of a real champion, although he hasn’t won the sprinters championship yet he definitely has the best credentials right now.

Flop of the Weekend: Big Brown’s demise was shocking and spectacular in the sense that no one would have conceived him getting beaten that badly. Perhaps some saw him getting passed late but being eased after producing no response at 1-4? Definitely the worst flop we’ve seen thus far in 2008. I know he’s become a bit of a blog whipping boy but notice once again how Champs Elysees flopped badly without excuse? I’ve been preaching against this suckers horse for a while now. I’d almost like to see him win a race so the bandwagon can reload but I have a hard time imagining him beating stakes horses.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: I suppose the best news to come out of Belmont Day is that the race for top TCR ranked horse of the year is not over halfway through the season. Big Brown would have been impossible to catch if he had won the Belmont but now it’s anyone’s game. Benny The Bull took his 4th consecutive race and moved into 4th overall. Since the Breeders’ Cup he’s been a monster, definitely the sprinter to beat.

Tip O’the Cap: His fan base has dwindled because of three or four bad performances recently but thanks to a swashbuckling ride from Tyler Baze we saw the Lava Man of old on Saturday. Some thought the old gelding was ready for a life of ease on the farm but Doug O’Neill has found a way to get his batteries re-charged and he definitely had the fire in his belly in the Whittinham. He didn’t win the G-1 event unfortunately but he ran his guts out after setting fast fractions and running off from the field. He got passed in mid stretch but re-rallied and was not giving up at the line. He came out the worst in a three horse blanked finish but I’m sure his connections were delighted. I know this fan was.

KC Handicapping: It felt as though I spent the entire day on the cusp of greatness but was unable to cross the threshold and have a truly memorable day. I had the True North just about dead on but the exacta came back in the least profitable order. One more stride and Man of Danger would have scored at 9/1. I was not on the right track in the Just A Game but the Acorn went more or less as I thought. Indian Blessing was the horse to beat and the only one who could get her was Zaftig. I do wish I had just gone with the obvious J Be K instead of wasting time getting sidetracked by horses like Fatal Bullet and Ling Ling Qi. The Woodford Reserve was another nice exacta and I felt quite confident going into the Belmont that Big Brown would either win or lose to a Zito horse. Shame I picked the wrong one. there is definitely something to training over Saratoga’s training track in preparation for this grueling event. Horses who have trained over it have outperformed in the past few years.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 15(6)-3-3-1 (-$9.40 -31.33% ROI)
Overall record: 544(275)-99-95-78 (-$115.60 -10.63% ROI)

Overview: The True North starts off the all stakes Pick 6 at Belmont. There is a lot of chalk in this sequence so it remains to be seen if it’ll be worth playing. On the other hand if Benny The Bull, Indian Blessing and Big Brown all lose the payoff could be massive. I’ll assume that upsets might be possible and play these 6 race as if I’m constructing a vertical exotic ticket on all these races.

True North Handicap
Benny The Bull is your most likely winner but there are slight questions about him. The first race back from Dubai is always a tricky one and Benny The Bull has had just 3 workouts since coming back. Despite his massive talent and class advantage I’m slightly worried that Dutrow won’t have the foot to the boards. When prepping Benny for the Sunshine Millions off a layoff Dutrow gave him 6 works, 3 of them bullets. This time coming off a longer layoff with a trip round the world he’s worked just 3 times and while they’ve all been in good racehorse time none of them were blazing. On the flip side I think we’ve got a great opportunity looming with Man Of Danger. I went for him last time out against Lucky Island and he ran a great race but was no match for the winner. The positive here is that he is once again the lone speed in a sprint and he ought to be better this time since he’s second off the layoff. Levine is pretty sharp with horses coming second off the shelf. He usually gets some improvement from them and considering that Man of Danger already ran a near lifetime best in the Bold Ruler he could step up in a big way. The other variable is the surface. Man of Danger and Abraaj are best suited for off going. Benny handles it okay but he’s not as brilliant and that’s basically all we’re looking for here. You have to protect yourself with Benny but in order to get some value pray hard that Man of Danger can hold. If you’re playing exacta’s and tri’s use Suave Jazz as well. He should run very well here but I don’t see him as the winner.

Man of Danger
Benny The Bull

Just A Game Stakes
Pre-race reports are calling this race Lady of Venice’s to lose, I rather believe the morning line that has Vacare on top. Lady of Venice is a fine horse but all her career she has flattered to deceive and I think that at her best she simply can’t run with Vacare at a flat mile. There is a slight question mark over Vacare’s readiness so she can’t be a single. Clement said he tried to get her in an easy prep for this race but it didn’t fill. That may mean she won’t be firing on all cylinders but she really is the best horse in this race and I think she’s going to be tough every time she starts. Bit of Whimsey could bounce back like Precious Kitten did but I’m inclined to think she isn’t quick enough at this distance. Same goes for Criminologist, she’s not a miler and is therefore less likely to beat this same group. Lady of Venice is a miler so although I think Vacare is better you still need to use her. Sharp Susan is also a horse that is well suited to the distance. Not sure if she is actually good enough but she is the bomb I’d use to juice the exotics. The other unexplored angle in this race is the pace. Bayou’s Lassie took them all the way around on Derby day, who’s to say she couldn’t turn the trick again. She did quite badly on the course and conditions in the Noble Damsel but she went the first quarter in :22 4/5 that day. With only Sharp Susan and Vacare to push her I think a half in :48 is more likely. Once she digs in she is not an easy horse to get by. Since much of the riders focus will be on Vacare, Lady of Venice and Bit of Whimsey she may steal this. I’ll use Vacare an Bayou’s Lassie for sure and will strongly consider hedging with Lady of Venice.

Vacare
Bayou’s Lassie

Acorn Stakes
I wish this race was not a part of the sequence. Indian Blessing, Zaftig, Game Face and Golden Doc A could all win this but none of them will be a square price. I might just have to go with Indian Blessing, but of course I’d feel like an idiot if I singled her and she lost. But here are a few things I dislike about her competitors. Zaftig’s Nassau County performance came out of nowhere. She may return to nowhere in this one. Horses who run such a big new top rarely run back to it next time out. I’d have more confidence if she had more starts under her belt prior to the big race but still she makes me nervous. Also the way she seems to fall asleep on the turn is a worry. You can’t do that against these horses. Positives on her are obviously that she is capable of a big race and she gets the services of Johnny V who chose her over Game Face. She is also undefeated away from Aqueduct. Game Face’s pilot jumped ship coming off a win. That’s not a great sign. Neither was the way she drifted in the Davona Dale. My suspicion is that beyond 7f she is less effective. Keep the Peace, the horse who ran her to a nose last time came back to lose the Dogwood after sitting a perfect trip. I think Game Face is the suckers horse but oddly enough she could still win. Golden Doc A is a tempting horse to use given her price and the speed in here. The wildcard is that we don’t know how much she really likes dirt. The Kentucky Oaks was not a typical race. She was closer to the pace, the distance was likely past her best and it was quite muddy. She is a true wildcard, I’m going to oppose her simply because I think she’s more likely to put in another “too late not enough” type of rally. Indian Blessing has been blessing with brilliant speed which Baffert is apparently going to try and harness. Hopefully he doesn’t do that too much because I think if he just let’s her roll she should take this. Dance Gal Dance has real sprinters speed and is in here to burn the favorite but Indian Blessing has never been bothered by having company up front. She doesn’t need the lead as much as she simply likes to run fast. Indian Blessing is very nearly a single for me, Zaftig is the horse I’d use as an alternative if I chicken out.

Indian Blessing

Woody Stephens Stakes
This is the most confusing race in the Pick 6 for me. Maybe it’s just a match race between Ready’s Image and J Be K or maybe there is a longshot who could upset the party. Let’s start by tossing the horses I would not use. Majestic Warrior is a horse I want no part of, Run With Me is not good enough to compete with this class, Groomed for Victory may want more distance his last win was just a case of outclassing bad horses. Lukas runs more horses into the ground these days than anything else. Silver Edition may have run well last time but I don’t trust him. True Quality does not look fast enough and will not get an easy lead. So that leaves the two favorites, Fatal Bullet and Ling Ling Qi. Fatal Bullet is a very professional looking horse. He’s a win machine on the Polytrack but this is his first try on dirt. There is no telling how he’ll take to it but he looks good enough and Prado gets on. Reade Baker is also a savvy shipper and has very good numbers with last out winners. Fatal Bullet will likely either win or run poorly but he offers value. Ling Ling Qi offers the best value of the race perhaps. Many people will see that he has some spotty form and he does not look extremely fast but what I like about him is he has some nice hidden dirt sprinting form. He is 5-3-1-1 in dirt sprints and 4-0-0-1 in all other races. His best lifetime effort came in a 7f race. People are overlooking him, he’s McPeek’s only starter at Belmont. I don’t think he came just for good seats to watch Big Brown. I marginally prefer J Be K over Ready’s Image among the two favorites but either could easily win. I prefer the way J Be K is coming into the race and he’s also undefeated in sprints.

J Be K
Ling Ling Qi
Ready’s Image
Fatal Bullet

Manhattan Handicap
It’s a G-1 race that will likely be won by a G-1 horse. Better Talk Now, Out Of Control, Proudinsky, Dancing Forever and Stream of Gold are the classiest horses in the race. You could probably do well by boxing those 5 in the trifecta and hope for the best price combination to come in. I’m opposing Pays To Dream despite the fact that I hope his Dixie performance was real. The fan in me wants to see him do it again, the handicapper in me says you need to bet on a bounce. Shakis only offers disappointment. Of the fab five I like Better Talk Now the least, I hate to say it but the old champ has looked very old in his last three starts. I won with him in this fixture last year but it does not look on the cards again. The Frankel pair look phenomenal, I especially like Out Of Control. He has spent most of his career at a mile but his best races have all come going further. He is untested at this distance but I think he has another furlong in him. His form is excellent and softish ground is the only worry I have. Soft ground is more Proudinsky’s thing. He is in lifetime best form. I do think the distance will dull his kick a bit but he is very capable. Dancing Forever and Stream of Gold have been running some big races according to BRISnet. The Beyer figures disagree though, they make them look more ordinary. Whoever you choose to believe they both must be respected. Dancing Forever is a good horse all of the sudden and he is a very complete challenger. He handles all types of going and every distance. The pace should be fair and he should be coming hard at Out of Control and Stream of Gold in the final furlong. Stream of Gold finally broke his losing streak but then went right back to his old ways in the Elkhorn. I think he’s good enough to win but unlikely to close the deal. out of Control will get first run on him and the Frankel horse doesn’t back down, Stream of Gold will. I guess the main question for me is, will the ground disadvantage Out of Control enough to let Proudinsky and Dancing Forever get to him? We won’t know until the race is run so use all three.

Out of Control
Proudinsky
Dancing Forever

Belmont Stakes
Big Brown is the most likely winner of any race in this sequence. He’s the best horse in this race and I’m more inclined to bet on the winning margin than another horse against him. But then again if we’re live this late into the Pick 6 do we really want to have just the horse that everyone else has? Big Brown is far better than the rest but he is likely to move early in this race because of the inside post. I would not even rule out a head to head, Secretariat vs Sham type duel with Casino Drive through the first half. We might see some speed from Da‘ Tara but he’s really not that fast. If the big two want to press the issue he’ll be left toiling. Big Brown could realistically beat this field by 20 lengths if they really let him go and he’s up to it. That’s my best guess for this race but if we want to find value I’m going to have to try and make a case that he could lose. Here is my angle, Big Brown was lightly prepped for the Preakness and had an easy race. That was designed to keep him fresh for the Belmont but then quarter crack issues came up and he was forced to miss some time. Perhaps that may have set him back a touch fitness wise and we’ll only find out in the final furlong. I’m convinced he’ll be in front for most of the stretch even if he gets beaten. So who could run him down? Casino Drive will get run into the ground by Big Brown, I don’t like his chances at all. Denis of Cork looks like the next best option but I think he’s poor value even at 12/1. I think he’ll hit the frame but he’s going to be ridden closer to the pace and that will dull his kick. I like the fact that Tale of Ekati is is undefeated at Belmont. In fact his best races came at Belmont. I know he does not appear to have any chance of staying the distance so I have to pass. The horse I come up with actually disgusts me a bit. I have hated Anak Nakal all spring, I never once considered using him in any race he’s run this year but now all of the sudden he appears to be a bit enticing. If the Belmont is not won by the logical top two it is often won by a horse so outside the box the announcer has to double check his name in the stretch. Here are the positives, he has some decent two year old form. At one point he looked like a horse that could be someone and that is the basis of my case for him. I’m hoping that somehow he will get back on that path of improvement, Birdstone and Commendable both did it. His figures have been silently improving lately. The FOY and Rebel were just a disaster but the Wood and Derby were not as terrible as they might have been. He is bred to stay the distance and every indication we get of him is that he genuinely can run this far. Leparoux is back on board and is the last jockey to have won with him. His patient style should help. He has also been working on the deep and tiring Saratoga Training track. Birdstone and Andromeda’s Hero both bid the same and ran well despite having indifferent form. Even after I write it I’m not fully convinced that Anak Nakal can win this race, but he is the only horse I’d use along with Big Brown.

Big Brown
Anak Nakal

For those of you who aren’t aware the same people who host the popular Road to the Roses Fantasy Game are also hosting a brand new Road to the Breeders’ Cup game.

I personally am a big fan of Fantasy Games. I think they improve a sports popularity immensely. They generate a rooting interest where there otherwise may not have been one. I do my best to support contests like the Road to the Roses, TVG Fantasy and Godolphin’s Seven Stars. This new Breeders’ Cup game is definitely worth playing even if the total prize list has not been created yet. We do know two things, the game will be loads of fun and you’ll get a $100 win wager at the Breeders’ Cup for leading the weekly standings. That’s enough incentive for me.

There is of course a Pay to Play option that allows you to compete for the pool of money donated by all the other players who selected that option.

Since the game is new there is an opportunity for the select few who get the strategy correct right from the start. I’ve been looking over the game timeline and rules looking for ways to get an edge. Here are a few things I’ve come up with.

Overview - The game requires you to start out with 12 horses. 3 from each division, Classic, Turf, Mile, Ladies Classic (Distaff). There is one supplemental draft period during the middle point of the game and then one more right before the Breeders’ Cup. You also get to select jockey’s and trainers for the BC.

Be Patient and Consistent - This is the first key to any fantasy games. Learn the deadlines and wait until those deadlines before making your moves. Also be consistent in not missing activation or supplemental windows. The first scoring race is June 14, entries open June 9th. There is no reason to make an entry until June 13th. With the supplemental draft always wait until the last day of the window. No sense bearing the risk of injury during that period if you don’t have to.

Notice the specific races on the eligible list - You only get points for your horses performances in these specific races. Make sure you pay close attention to the list because it’s not as straightforward as it seems. There are slightly more Turf races than there are dirt races, there are 4 races run in Europe, and there is a shocking lack of Californian races through the summer. No Hollywood Gold Cup, Clement Hirsch or Vanity.

Glean through the news everyday - It’s usually very tough to find stated campaign’s for older horses. It’s not like the Triple Crown where trainers set a path and generally follow it. Older horses generally take it one start at a time and you have to be sharp to catch the intentions of the connections.

Find horses who can win preps - The way the points are structure it is more beneficial to win a G-3 than it is to finish second in a G-1. Look for standouts in smaller races if you have to. It might be better than taking good horses in tough G-1’s. Also since one supplemental draft happens after all the preps are run it means you don’t need to worry as much about a horse that would win the BC race itself. You want them to get points all summer and fall.

Shy away from Californians in your initial selection - I don’t hate west coasters, in fact I think they’ll dominate the BC itself but I noted above that many key Californian races were missing. During the initial phase of the game there are just 4 races run in California and none in the Ladies Classic Division. You may want to avoid Californians altogether in the Turf division as just the Sunset and Del Mar Handicap are included. There are more Turf stakes restricted to 3yo’s than there are Californian turf stakes.

Watch the timing of the supplemental window - And don’t take horses who aren’t supposed to run prior to it. Ideally you could find some horses who will get two starts in the first window. There won’t be many but there should be a few.

Now down to the specific tips for the first phase in each division.

Classic

Choose ‘em
Curlin is a must use, he runs on the opening weekend of the contest in a G-1 and may run in the Whitney as well. Forget that he might not run in the Classic. You can two or three G-1’s out him beforehand. Colonel John should run in the Swaps and right now he might be one of the few Classic horses you can count on aside from Curlin.

Don’t use ‘em
Big Brown is not scheduled to run again until the Travers that’s in the second window. Heatseeker and Tiago are not likely to contest the San Diego Handicap but both may be aimed at the Pacific Classic. You may have to take one early in order to have them both in the second phase. Or you could choose to go against one of them.

Turf

Choose ‘em
Meal Penalty has little to no chance in the Breeders’ Cup Turf as it looks now but he might be the best Turf 3yo at Arlington and that could see him rack up some points. Watch the Coronation Cup this weekend very closely. If Getaway wins like he should and his connection target the King George he is a must use.

Don’t use ‘em
Champs Elysees is a suckers horse and he runs this weekend in the Whittingham. You may see him come east for the United Nations or Man O’War but he’s a bet against for me.

Mile

Choose ‘em
Cosmonaut may not be the first horse on everyones list but I suspect he’ll get a full campaign. You might even get 3 or 4 races out of him before the Breeders’ Cup.

Don’t use ‘em
Kip Deville is the current favorite for the race but is not supposed to run until the Woodbine Mile in Sept. Daytona is a tough call, he wins virtually everywhere he goes but he’ll have to leave his home state to get in any eligible races in the first phase.

Ladies Classic

Choose ‘em
Ginger Punch is likely to contest either the Ogden Phipps or the Fleur de Lis on opening weekend. She is also likely to wheel back in a race like the Go For Wand. Spring Waltz was a revelation at Gulfstream early in the year. Don’t be surprised to see her running in the races that Ginger Punch doesn’t common ownership will likely keep them apart. Can anyone beat Proud Spell at a distance? It’s likely worth betting they can’t in the CCA Oaks.

Don’t use ‘em
Zenyatta may be the best older female in the nation but she’s a poor bet here unless you think she’s going to ship to New York. I tend to think she won’t.

Weekend Overview: Even the toughest East Coast supremacist has to be casting an envious eye at the talent California is displaying in the older horse ranks. Heatseeker was phenomenal in the Californian and Zenyatta still as if everything is a stroll in the park. No matter what happens in the first three quarters of her races she still gallops out as if the race was a staged workout for her. No one has even been able to close ground on this big striding filly and it doesn’t look like they’ve got to the bottom of her yet. If not for Tiago residing in the same stable I’d be thinking Classic, not the Ladies version in October. The plucky little Smooth Air continued the feel good story of his connections and confirmed that the Kentucky Derby was an aberration. He’s a tough little horse who will be a match for most of the others from this crop.

Performance of the Week: Heatseeker is starting to remind me more and more of his sire. I was a massive Giants Causeway fan, that horse did not quit and it seemed like he could run every weekend and still bring his best. Earlier in the year I liked the look of Heatseeker for the Big Cap but decided he wasn’t fresh enough to produce a big effort. Turns out that rest is overrated for some individuals because he went on to run the two biggest races of his career. He did get that much deserved break after Oaklawn and looked better than ever in the Californian. This was not just a dominant performance in terms of the winning margin, the track record or the ease with which he dispatched some really nice horses. He was also a picture physically. If Hollendorfer can keep this horse together until the fall the Big Brown vs Curlin match up may get overshadowed by a spoiler.

Race of the Week: It was a heart breaker for me but it was a heart stopper for anyone who watched. I was desperately rooting for Quiet Jungle to get home but Callwood Dancer just would not quit. It’s the must watch race of the weekend.

Flop of the Weekend: Criticism for Harlem Rocker’s demise in the Plate Trial will be brought against his connections but for me the flop was still up to Harlem Rocker. Yes it was a mistake to try a different surface and two turns at once (for less money) when there were so many other good two turn options on the dirt. But even if you think the connections chose the wrong spot you still have to point at the horse for the reason behind his failure. He simply didn’t fire despite having every chance to do so. The Queen’s Plate is now up for grabs as Harlem Rocker will likely be sent to the Dwyer.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Big Brown remains on top overall and he may just stay there indefinitely if he captures the Belmont. Heatseeker continued his superb season in the Californian and is now the top Main Track Older Male and 3rd overall. Zenyatta forged her way to the front in the Main Track Older Female division but is far from having an unassailable lead. Despite her dominance there is still all to play for from her competitions point of view.

Tip O’the Cap: Bernie Stutts has laid the groundwork for Smooth Air to have a throwback type campaign. He’s already had a full spring and these days a bad race in the Derby spells at least a few months on the sidelines. But Stutts has a healthy horse and he is not afraid to run him. Smooth Air rewarded him in spades with a nice win in the Ohio Derby. I wish these two all the success in the world for the rest of the season.

KC Handicapping: I’m tired of losing. I thought I had a nice one in the Nassau only for the line to come up one stride too soon. Quiet Jungle had some up and down fortune in the Nassau. She sort of got squeezed back in the pack and didn’t have a clear shot until the stretch. At first it seemed as if Sealy Hill was going best of all but Quiet Jungle accelerated nicely and looked sure to run down the longtime leader but the pacesetter dug in and the wire came too soon. Defeat by a nose and a continuation of my personal losing streak.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 2(1)-0-1-0 (-$4.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 529(269)-96-92-77 (-$106.20 -10.04% ROI)