Weekend Overview: Two weeks ago we saw almost nothing but favorites winning. This week the favorites took a battering. Prior to this weekend I’m not sure you could have sold me on the fact that Proud Spell, A.P Arrow, Go Between, Daytona, Z Fortune, Noonmark, Magnificience and Zanjero would all lose. Music Note, Mast Track and Frost Giant are now G-1 winners. Seems to me like this weekend was a real life argument in favor of downgrading and reworking the stakes schedule. We have too many G-1’s and although Music Note looks like a high quality animal she was facing just 3 fillies. Frost Giant has no discernable quality other than the fact that he can stay. Solar Flare would have won this race if it was any shorter. Also for those who may not have noticed Barbeque Eddie made a successful return from Dubai when he wired an allowance field at Hollywood.

Performance of the Week: For anyone not following the meteoric rise of Storm Mesa check out the Iowa Oaks. After 3 open length victories and a gaudy 108 Beyer Storm Mesa has transformed herself from a little known maiden from the bayou to a legitimate threat in the Three Year Old Female division. The Iowa Oaks was her sternest test to date and she passed with flying colours. Sure the margin of victory was less than in her other races but I really loved is the way this filly was pricking her ears while under pressure. The competition was full out and pressing but she held them safely and seemed to even be enjoying herself.

Race of the Week: For my taste the best race of the weekend was the Iowa Sprint Handicap. It ended being a cavalry charge where Noonmark, Sing Baby Sing and Native Ruler forged to the front. These three battled it out through the lane until Native Ruler finally put them away.

Flop of the Weekend: He was far from the only favorite to fail this weekend but Daytona’s demise was the most shocking to me personally. The horse has been a machine since last fall. It was sad to see him struggling against those inferior horses. Perhaps he had some sort of physical issue or maybe he just needs a good long break.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: It was a week of disappointment for several top divisional players. Proud Spell, Daytona and Intangaroo all had great chances to either gain position or solidify an already lofty placing but they achieved just one third place finish among them. Proud Spell does finally take over top spot in the 3yo filly division, but on the visual evidence she provided it will not be hers for long. Daytona missed a huge opportunity to go second in the Turf Male division. To highlight the relative lack of depth in the Main Track Older Male division, Mast Track and Frost Giant are now the 6th and 8th best ranked Older Males. Grasshopper (27th), Circular Quay (33rd) and A.P. Arrow (38th) should be ashamed of themselves.

Tip O’the Cap: It was a massive weekend for John Sadler. He accounted for the scalps of Cosmic Queen, Daytona and Magnificience with a nice stakes triple.

KC Handicapping: Wow, the curse continues and not because of low quality selections. 5 of the 7 horses selected ran in the money. Solar Flare looked like a winner in the stretch but didn’t stay the trip. Sing Baby Sing did indeed fight off Noonmark but he couldn’t hold off Native Ruler who took a big step forward. Poor Go Between has become something of a “nearly” horse. He ran well it’s just that with Heatseeker out there was no one to keep Mast Track honest. Emmy Darling impressed and showed once again the potency of certain 2yo angles.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 7(4)-1-3-1 (-$5.60 -40.00% ROI)
Overall record: 555(282)-99-98-79 (-$129.20 -11.64% ROI)

This weekend features a first for Kennedy’s Corridor and the syndicated version on the TBC homepage. We have arranged to have Alex Zelvin write a featured article. Alex has a blog of his own called ThoroughMetrics and is the founder of ThoroughMetrics (http://www.freewebs.com/breedinganalysis), which does statistical analysis and research for the thoroughbred racing industry. I’m honoured and excited to have him as my guest.

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More About Blood-Ex

As a thoroughbred racing fanatic and a fairly serious student of financial markets, I’m looking forward to the upcoming launch of Blood-Ex, the first thoroughbred bloodstock trading exchange. I believe that this is an exciting development that is likely to bring new owners into the game, and a potential profit opportunity for those who trade wisely. Blood-Ex is set to launch in the UK sometime this summer, with expansion to the US and other countries later this year.

For those who haven’t read about Blood-Ex yet, here’s a brief summary of how it works. Owners may put up for sale shares of horses in training that meet certain criteria. Each share represents 1/150th of 1% of the horse. These shares do not carry any obligation for ongoing expenses, and do not entitle the holder to any share of the horse’s earnings on the track. When the owner puts shares up for sale, they will be required to put the horse up for auction at some point in the future, to determine the value of each share. Orders to buy and sell shares will be made on Blood-Ex just like limit orders on a stock exchange. Buying won’t cost anything, but all sales will have a 5% commission.

Along with horse racing, and financial markets, I’m also an obsessive fantasy baseball player. Last year, I participated (and finished 8th out of 4,000+ people) in a new game that used a stock market type trading mechanism. Because it was the first year the game had been run, nobody knew exactly how the ‘market’ would function. Two lessons that I learned there, that I think apply to Blood-Ex as well:

There’s no way to know exactly what will happen once trading starts, or what strategies will be successful.
Whatever happens, you’ll be in a better position to succeed if you’ve already given some thought to the possibilities prior to the start of trading.

I think the second point is especially true, because ‘immature’ or new markets are often the least efficient, and provide the greatest opportunities for profit. Once Blood-Ex has thousands of participants, including some with large sums of money available to them, the inefficiencies in the market will begin to disappear, and opportunities will be harder to find.

In the meantime, here are four things to think about as you prepare for the start of trading:

1. The 5% commission on sales is huge. It’s very possible that it will turn all short term trading strategies into losers. It should be less of an issue for those who plan to buy and hold shares. Also, it appears that you will not have to pay the commission when horses you own shares of are sold at auction. So if you’re holding shares of a valuable horse, it will generally be better to simply hang on to them until they’re sold than to sell them on Blood-Ex.

2. Most male horses end up their careers worthless as bloodstock. While trading in fillies and mares may have some resemblance to stock trading, with relatively modest price gains and losses, trading in colts and stallions is going to look like options trading…a few big winners, and a lot of 100% losses. Because of that, any long-term ‘portfolio’ of shares should hold very small positions in colts, and diversify across many of them. Because of the lower volatility, it should be ok to hold fewer, more concentrated positions of shares in fillies and mares.

3. Pay attention to the spread, or the difference between the best bid (offer to buy) and the best ask (offer to sell). Generally speaking, the spread will act as an additional transaction cost. If you want to make sure you get shares in a horse, you’ll have to make your offer to buy at a price equal to the best ask. But if you try to sell those same shares, even if the price hasn’t moved at all, you’ll need to sell them at the level of the best bid to guarantee yourself a buyer. So you’ll lose money on the round trip. That said, if you’re patient there are situations where the spread can work to your advantage. Instead of placing your buy orders at the best ask, place them just above the best bid, and wait to see if someone is willing to lower the asking price of their shares. And instead of placing your sell orders at the best bid, place them just below the best ask, and wait to see if an eager buyer is willing to pay what you’re asking. Until trading starts we really have no idea how wide the spreads on Blood-Ex are going to be. Most likely they’re going to be relatively narrow on well known horses which are actively traded. But for more obscure horses, spreads could be 15-20% of more. If that’s the case, there’s an opportunity to overcome the impact of the commission simply by placing buy orders on horses at a price just above the best big and placing sell orders on those you acquire just below the best ask. However, if you try this, you should probably not leave your orders open during the horse’s races, when the price (and perceived value) of the horse is likely to move sharply in one direction or the other.

4. Pay attention to how responsive the market is to news. Initially there may be relatively few participants, and prices may react slowly to news. This is likely to be most true for horses that aren’t stars. If you follow the news closely, you may be one of the first to learn of an injury or a particularly fast workout. Once the market has more participants, it’s likely that price moves in reaction to news will be so fast that there isn’t an opportunity for most to profit from it. One aspect of this that should be particularly interesting to see is how prices will move during the running of a race. As far as I can tell, trading in horses will not be frozen during their races, although it wouldn’t surprise me if this is done to avoid wild price swings.

Alex Zelvin

This race a joke of a Grade 1.  Half the horses are coming out of optional claiming races, not always as winners I might add, and there isn’t a Grade 1 winner in the field.  After the race, one will be–by default.  This race should be downgraded to a Grade 2 or 3 before the race is run tomorrow, it’s an embarrassment to the sport.

Iowa Sprint Handicap
Last year this race served as the official coming out of Benny The Bull this year it may signal the rise to prominence of another horse. We all know that Noonmark is good. He has been a quality horse since early on in his career. The problem with him is that he often gets beaten. He is almost always well backed but he has won just twice in his last 8 contests. I’d be shocked if he was worse than third in this race but I like another to maybe just claim his scalp. Sing Baby Sing has pretty good hidden sprint form. If you isolate his last 4 tries under a mile he has gone 4-3-1-0 with his only reverse coming last out where he lost by a head in his seasonal debut. His last effort was a lifetime best and I like playing the angle where a horse achieves a lifetime best in their seasonal debut without winning. If they’re given sufficient time before wheeling back (and he has) they often go one better next time out and since they didn’t win there is more value there. This race has a fair bit of speed and Sing Baby Sing should be stalking mid pack just like Noonmark. The pair ought to sweep to the front together and it’s there that I expect Noonmark to find a way to lose.

Sing Baby Sing
Noonmark

Landaluce Stakes
I find the task of interpreting 2yo form to be a very unique one. There are so many different angles to consider and you have very little evidence to go on. Many of the contestants will have already run their best race, while the others might get significantly better. One thing to keep in mind is that maiden winners rarely improve. All the horses in both this race and the Debutante, at Churchill, who won their first start regressed slightly in their next try. That means although Cosmic Queen appears to be a standout I don’t believe her to be untouchable. I think she’ll regress slightly. There is a very interesting form circle in this race. Cosmic Queen beat Trifecta King who then came back to beat Atka. Atka had previously beaten Glitter City and Glitter City rebounded from that effort to beat Emmy Darling. Emmy Darling is the only maiden in the race but aside from Cosmic Queen she likely ran the most impressive debut of the lot. She was well backed in her first race and it seemed like a good learning experience for her. The extra furlong will help her whereas it may hurt some of the more speed oriented contenders. Emmy Darling should offer great value.

Emmy Darling

Suburban Handicap
Much like Noonmark the likely Suburban favorite A.P. Arrow is a rather reliable loser. All the signs point to him running a good race but the signs always seem to point to him running well and he’s just 2 for his last 13. I think you have to oppose him here, use him underneath in exotics but focus the win pool money on horses who find the wire first. The trouble with this race is that there are 4 logical alternatives who could all either win or run out of the frame. Rising Moon has received the most press out of the quartet but I like him the least. I don’t think he’s good enough and I think he got a very easy race last time. Harlington is another contender but I’m not sold on him. He, like Rising Moon is coming into the Suburban second off a long layoff. Both ran brightly in routes in their first start back. I don’t see them taking another step forward here. Two alternatives I do like are Solar Flare and Merchant Marine. Solar Flare was a useful horse in Argentina and looks to be quite a useful horse in America. Larry Jones has been having a super year in terms of results and he’s likely got another gem here. The Flare gets first time Lasix and this might be the last time we get a reasonable price on him. Another horse to fear is Merchant Marine trained by the savvy Allen Jerkens. He doesn’t jump off the page as a sure stayer but Jerkens took this race with Political Force who seemed certain not to stay. At least with this horse we simply don’t know. I do think he’s a runner and he’s getting better. I think he also might have a bit of a recency/fitness edge on the other 4 main dangers. He loves Belmont and he has to be used.

Solar Flare
Merchant Marine

Hollywood Gold Cup
You have to get excited for this race. Heatseeker and Tiago round four. It might be last time we make a big deal about this rivalry because both horses are likely to stay on all weather tracks for the rest of the year and so far Heatseeker has proven to be a vastly superior horse on all weather tracks. I don’t like Tiago at all in this race. I think the pace is against him and Heatseeker is simply far better than he is. I think main challenge will once again come from Go Between. People forget that he nearly got to Heatseeker in the Big Cap. Many blamed the ride that day and he gets a 7lb shift in the weights today. In my mind he is the second best all weather horse in the nation. The problem I have with him here is that Mott himself has expressed some concern over his readiness for this race. He’s had three works since the Ben Ali in April. Will that be enough? I’m not sure although he only had 4 works off a layoff in the Sunshine Millions and that worked well for him. Big Booster is a must play as well. He loves Hollywood and he is actually the only horse to beat Heatseeker at this track. He is not as brilliant as the favorite but he is in good form and he is capable of big race performances. The pace is the main worry with him but I actually believe that he’ll be ridden closer to the pace here. He is somewhat known for coming from the clouds but he is far more effective in mid pack. I don’t expect that he’ll be much more than 5 lengths off the pace at any time and this will give him a great chance to win. I see no real reason to doubt Heatseeker but I also don’t think it’s a one horse race.

Big Booster
Heatseeker
Go Between

The future look series I’m doing is more or less like the numerous top 10 lists you’ll find for the Derby. Except I’m not going to update them on a weekly basis. The idea is just to give you an idea of some of the best horses to follow in the build up to the Breeders’ Cup I’ve already done the Mile, Classic and Turf.

The race formerly known as the Distaff has been a very tough one for me to beat personally. In fact I’ve never had a Distaff winner in 12 years of handicapping the Breeders’ Cup. I usually find myself going for horses like Elloluv, Sharp Cat, Banshee Breeze and Happy Ticket. They performed well but couldn’t manage a victory. Despite my lack of single selection winners I’m confident that I can point in the right direction when naming 10 different horses.

Spring Waltz - She is latest model to come out of the impressive Stronach breeding program. After a good but low key start to her career she exploded at Gulfstream earning impressive wins and the highest Beyer Speed Figures in the division. Surface should not be a problem for her and I honestly think that she is as good as anyone if not better. That includes Ginger Punch and Zenyatta.

Zenyatta - Many people will see her as unbeatable in the Ladies Classic even this far from the race. Personally I don’t believe that any horse is unbeatable. There is always a condition or circumstance that could result in seeing them defeated. She just hasn’t encountered it yet. There is no guarantee that she will encounter it in the Ladies Classic either though. Her huge strides have not yet found a match but perhaps she might be more vulnerable to a slow pace. The horse to beat in the division, no question about that, but don’t concede the contest just yet.

Tough Tiz’s Sis - I think a lot of people will overlook her no matter how well she does over the summer but the key with her is that the Breeders Cup is at Santa Anita. She is 6-3-3-0 on All Weather tracks and despite the fact that she was handled easily by Zenyatta I think she could still produce an effort good enough to win on the right day. She’ll have home court advantage over all the eastern fillies and her speed makes her a key player.

Zaftig - I don’t know how good she is but she certainly looks freaky. Her last two races have been unbelievable. There are two big questions about her though, will she handle two turns and is she picky about surfaces? She does not seem to care for Aqueduct much so that’s a concern when considering Santa Anita. On raw form though she looks like the best 3yo filly.

Ginger Punch - She is no longer the “now” horse of the division with her failure to beat Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom, but she still has every chance. She was up against it that day while setting the pace. I have always had the feeling that she is really at her best around one turn but she is a top class mare no matter how you look at it and she also has good form on Polytrack.

Hystericalady - Her connections are on record saying that All Weather surfaces are not her best and generally I think her performances lend weight to that. However she is still not far behind the best on any surface. She is a very consistent performer with good tactical speed. I don’t think she fully stays 9f but even with the lack of stamina she managed to run second last year.

Proud Spell - She has never really put a foot wrong in her whole career. She is ranked a bit lower because I’m not sure how she’ll like it out west. She did not care much for Keeneland. As well as I’m slightly concerned about her preparation. Jones is looking at sweeping the Mother Goose, CCA Oaks and Alabama then likely giving her a break. If he decides to keep her on the bench all the way to the BC then I’d be against her slightly. Hopefully she comes through her summer program well and still gets a fall prep.

Santa Teresita - We have not yet seen the best of this fast improving filly. She only broke her maiden at the end of 2007. In 4 starts this year she has gone 4-2-2-0 with losses coming to Tough Tiz’s Sis and Zenyatta. Those aren’t easy horses to beat in your first graded stakes. She was not giving up at all in either contest. Expect her to win some nice races this year and maybe just improve enough to handle the big guns.

Unbridled Belle - I really don’t know how she’d do in the Ladies Classic but I am convinced that she’ll wreak havoc in the build up to it. She has always been a horse who was somewhat picky about racing surfaces. She loves Delaware and is better there than anywhere else. In her debut this year she looked better than she ever has, even in her best races at Delaware. All Weather tracks are a big concern but she has the talent.

Ginger Brew - The Canadian filly has a lot of maturing to do before she could be regarded as Distaff quality but she is also somewhat under developed. She has never been worse than second in 7 starts on Turf, Dirt and Polytrack. Her career Beyer top is 94, which is not huge but consider that at this point in the season horses like Flute, Exogenous, Ashado and Stellar Jayne had not yet shown the necessary speed to beat older mares either. We know that Stronach has had an unbelievable run with fillies. Much like the Phipps enjoyed in the 90’s. Most of his fillies like Ginger Punch, Citronnade and Sugar Swirl did not mature this quickly. If Ginger Brew goes on improving she will be extremely tough.

Because Curlin would go down in history.  He’ll never win as many races as John Henry.  He’ll never win as many in a row as Cigar.  He’ll probably never win a race by 31 lengths and smash the track record by two and a half seconds.  He’ll never be an undefeated Triple Crown winner.  He’ll never win 8 of 8 races at four and be so fast and so good that no one will even show up to face him in one race.  But he can do something John Henry, Cigar, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, and Spectacular Bid have never done.  He can win the Arc.  BC Classic/Dubai World Cup has been done before.  So has winning the BC Classic twice.  But what US dirt horse has ever won the Arc?  It’s unheard of even to try.  I think one of the most absurd questions of the year has to be why the Arc?  Why?  Because it’s the one race Curlin could win that would make him go down in horse racing history.  It would be incredible for a US dirt horse to win the Arc and Curlin would go down in history.  That’s why.

I spent this morning in the dentists chair and I’m just getting to the point where I can feel my face again. Perhaps its an after effect of the drugs but I just feel like jotting down a few random thoughts on some of the biggest current topics.

- I think IEAH has done a decent thing by stepping forward and volunteering to go off many legal drugs. It’s not a cure all for racing but I think it’s a nice gesture and a step in the right direction. I do hope others are encouraged to follow suit but most likely none one will until the drugs in question are made illegal.

- I have not spent much time looking for reasons to exonerate Big Brown for his flop in the Belmont Stakes. I think the majority of the excuses produced have been meaningless. I do however think that the issue with his shoe is legitimate. I’m not so much interested in figuring out why he couldn’t win the Triple Crown but I am interested in what caused the flop because it may be a concern for the future. If for instance, Big Brown randomly flopped, there is a chance it could happen again and it would cast a doubt over his next races. But I am somewhat satisfied that the shoe did contribute to his downfall. It likely did not fully account for his performance but it had an impact.

- Jeremy Rose deserves what he gets, and possibly more. It was just a petulant strike at a horse he was frustrated with. You can’t do that and more than that you shouldn’t do that. It’s more a question of ethics than rules. I do like that the stewards are holding him financially responsible for the injury treatment.

- Aspiring handicappers should check out the new Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Challenge. It’s free to enter and it offers 3 qualifying places in the National Handicapping Championship in Vegas as well as a few other prizes. It will be extremely difficult to win but most other NHC qualifiers cost money to enter so this is a good place to test your mettle and decide if you’ve got the stuff to actually compete with the best.

Weekend Overview: I’m thrilled that Congress might get some butts in gear. I called for something like this a while back in some posts called An Audience With The Boss. I’m hopeful that as a result of these hearings we can hopefully get everyone on the same page. Royal Ascot was also this weekend and once again it was a marvellous collection of top class racing and pageantry. Stateside Mauralakana continued her hot streak in New York while Fabulous Strike returned from injury and looked like his old self. Sailor’s Cap was impressive in the Colonial Turf Cup but it seemed to deepen the impression that Tizdejavu is a very good turf horse. Fans will have been disappointed with Rutherienne but Lady Digby was quietly become a very effective Turf horse. We all know what Greame Motion can do with horses on the grass. Maybe she can become the stables next Film Maker.

Performance of the Week: Henrythenavigator is quickly gaining a reputation as formidable as Rock of Gibraltar’s. He certainly looks every bit as good as the Rock at this stage. His performance in the St James’ Palace stakes was phenomenal. He held off a very good Raven’s Pass to record his third straight G-1 win of the season. Expect the top two to come to America for the Breeders’ Cup Mile although Henry may have a lofty enough reputation by that time to convince his connections to go for the Classic.

Race of the Week: I’m sorry I don’t have a video to the Queen’s Plate linked in this post but if you can find the race on Youtube or Calracing by all means watch it. It was hard to know who to cheer for, the gallant filly taking on males in Canada’s Premier Classic or the gutsy sprinter who was bidding to give Roger Attfield his record tying 8the win in the Plate. Not Bourbon made the lead at the head of the stretch and at the 9f mark it seemed like he had done enough but Ginger Brew would not back down and she came at him hard in the final furlong. A few more strides and the outcome may have been different but either way the result was enjoyable.

Flop of the Weekend: I don’t want to be too cruel to Rutherienne for her third place finish in the All Along but it was a field she really should have beaten. The rain may have eased her chances some but she suffered back to back losses for the first time in her 13 race career and really there was no excuse to drop this one. Lady Digby looked much better than she did.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Mauralakana forged to the front of the Turf Female division and looks good value for it. Although I don’t think she is actually the most talented Turf Female in the nation it’s hard to argue with a 5-4-1-0 season to date. Clement has really got the best out of her. No one esle was a major mover in the standings although Rutheriene’s failure to move up was significant. I’m not sure that she has the stuff to win this division.

Tip O’the Cap: A lot of notable things happened this week in racing. I’m having a hard time narrowing down the candidates for my weekly congratulation. IEAH stables deserves a round of applause for commiting to cutting back on the drugs they give their horses. Congress deserves a tip of the cap for getting the ball rolling on reforms like this. But in the end I settled on Yeats. He was once the favorite for the Derby and a late injury looked to have deprived him of a certain victory in the Blue Riband. Fortunate for him the way things worked out. Connections discovered that his best trip was actually 14f or more. He has made Ascot’s Gold Cup his own personal parade capturing it three years in a row. Amazing to think that a horse like this is was not even gelded. He was a G-1 winner at 4 and had not yet discovered his passion for staying races when Coolmore elected not to retire him in order to bring him back as a 5 year old. He has won the Ascot Gold Cup every year since then. Yeats is one of the greatest stories of our era.

KC Handicapping: Sometimes it feels as though I’m cursed in some way. Despite highlighting some great plays and getting a good in the money percentage with my picks I have not actually turned a profit on my straight weekend selections since February 25th. This weekend was a an excellent example of the type of luck I’ve been having for months. Ginger Brew was my lone selection of the weekend. She was closing hard on Not Bourbon (my alternate whom I did not officially select) and just failed to get there by a head. I’ve lost track of the amount of photo finishes I’ve lost over these last few months. It’s a very tough game, even when you virtually figure out the race.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 1(1)-0-1-0 (-$2.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 548(278)-99-98-79 (-$123.60 -11.28% ROI)

Queens Plate Stakes
I don’t have many strong fancies this weekend, at least not any that I think will pay. Mauralakana looks solid in the New York but she’ll pay just above the minimum. Being Canadian I feel somewhat obliged to weigh in on this contest whether I have a strong opinion or not. The Queen’s Plate is the oldest continually run sporting event on the continent and many good horses have emerged from it. This year I think it will be a special occasion for a very good emerging horse. It’s been a while since a filly won the Queen’s Plate but I’d feel very confident with a size able wager on Ginger Brew. She looks to be really top class. Not only does she handle every surface but she has shown good form against Americans already and is more than bred to stay the trip. Perhaps it’s a little overconfident of me to say it but I could see this one following in the steps of Dance Smartly and sweeping the Triple Crown. She has all the tools including the bravery needed to barge her way through. The colts are also somewhat lackluster this year. There are no less than five maidens in the Plate and there are just 3 stakes winners. She is the only horse to have won a stakes race that was not restricted to Canadian-breds. Stronach stables have another gem of a filly to go along with their impressive stock. She’s simply too good for these and I don’t expect her to be challenged much as long as she stays at Woodbine among 3yo’s. not Bourbon is a classy horse who likely won’t stay. I thought the same of Edenwold and he proved me wrong but I doubt it will happen again here. Use him underneath though along with the maiden D. Flutie. He’s getting better and was likely moved too quickly last time. The connections are spot on for this race and he might be a nice price.

Ginger Brew

I’m continuing my series on possible good future bets for the BC races or at least some horses to follow in the run up to the big event.

The Breeders’ Cup Classic will be, in my opinion, a very different type of affair. The fact that the surface will be an All Weather one should seriously alter the type of horses who are successful and also the type of horses who are pointed to the race.

BC Classic

Heatseeker - He is the best All Weather horse in the nation. He performs at the highest level and is extremely consistent. He showed a new dimension in his latest start and I think as the year goes on he will confirm the form he showed. Tiago his arch rival is not included in my list at all only because I don’t see anyway Heatseeker would lose to him in a race like this. He’s got speed but prefers to come from off the pace. It’s a deadly combination, he also owns the highest route Beyers earned at Santa Anita.

Einstein - He is one horse I like a bit for the BC turf but I put him barely in the top 10 for that race while the Classic looks right up his alley. 10f is his best distance and we know he’s got an abundance of class. Turf horses have been quite successful switching over to the surface and we already know he handles dirt and Turf decently. Why not an all weather surface? Horses like Go Between and Heatseeker were turf horses at one point and Einstein looks 10 lengths better than that pair on the sod. If he takes to this surface at all and if his connections choose this race he could be a good thing.

Go Between - At one point earlier in this season it was wondered whether any horse could take him on an all weather surface. Of course Heatseeker then beat him in the Big Cap and has gone on to national prominence but Go Between nearly had him that day and many blamed the ride. He loves Santa Anita and despite the fact that we don’t see him in action right now he still has a huge shot.

Well Armed - This is the most under rated speed horse in the nation. I’m sure there are a bunch who think that he’s not up to winning a race like this but I see him as extremely dangerous. Let’s not forget that he too matched up very favorably against Heatseeker in the spring and then went out and ran third in the Dubai World Cup. He was no match for Curlin but still it displayed a real usefulness and class. I suspect we’ll see him in out of the way races like the San Diego instead of the Gold Cup or Pacific Classic but he ought to be the horse who controls the pace on BC day.

Big Brown - The aura of invincibility may be gone but he’s still a dashed fine horse. He does not lay over the contenders here like did in the Triple Crown but you need to respect his talent. He’s handled turf and dirt so most likely the surface is not a huge concern. The concern with him is will he come back to his best form and then will he also improve to the level he’ll need to be at to beat the rest of these.

Colonel John - He looked second class on dirt in the Derby but he does love Santa Anita and rates a chance on the surface. He has loads of improvement to come, far more than Big Brown but he is the type of horse who could do it. The distance should not be a problem and he definitely has the breeding. His preparation for the Classic begins soon in the Swaps.

Henrythenavigator - There will likely be more Europeans than just this one coming over for the Classic but this one looks the best bet at this stage. Coolmore loves to have a tilt at the Classic with miler types and this horse looks truly special. He should get 10f with ease and we know he’s got a great turn of foot and bags of class. All that remains to be seen is whether he likes the surface and whether or not connections choose this race over the Mile.

Out of Control - He is a bit of a “tweener” on the grass but would likely fit well in the Classic. He is still coming into his own and connections are just sort of finding out what he’s best at. He has a good running style for the main track. It often sees him flat footed when it counts on the grass but it could serve him well on Cushion Track.

Georgie Boy - He was brilliant in the spring and although I doubt him at 10f he may be the kind of horse that gets more stamina as he matures. Of course coming back from injury is his main concern at this stage but he certainly rates a chance.

Curlin - Curlin would be at the head of this list if I thought there was a good chance he would run. He is the best horse in the world and would likely take to the surface and handle anyone who opposes him. However his connections are talking about avoiding the Classic and going for the Arc. I have him on the list because they still might have a change of heart. We don’t know how the Turf experiment will play itself out it could be that plans for the Arc get scrapped and does wind up defending his title. He is too good a horse not to include in a list like this.