Racing needs reform, it becomes more evident every day. There seems to be a ton of pressure on racing to change it’s ways in many areas. Unfortunately catastrophic injuries seem to be the only catalyst that motivates the current powers that be. After the injury to Barbaro there was a major push toward synthetic surfaces now after the death of Eight Belles there seems to be a focus on eliminating steroids and banning the jockey’s whip.

I think that both movements of reform are inadequate. They’re just a piecemeal attempt at reform. Just enough to convince the media that someone is trying but the solutions are far from well thought out as we’ve seen with the surface problems at Santa Anita. In my opinion what racing really needs is a federally appointed racing commissioner with the power to control all aspects of racing.

Perhaps a congressional inquiry into racing is the only way to bring that about. I’m not really sure how we would get a commissioner installed but I am convinced it’s necessary for racing. I am positive that if racing did ever get a commissioner it wouldn’t be me but what I would dream of one day is to be able to present my views or my case for reforms in many different areas of racing.

Over the next few days I’m going to be sharing some of my ideas on how racing could be reformed for the better. They are not all fully formed ideas nor are all the repercussions of these changes fully explored or explained. But remember I’m not imagining that I’ll ever be in a position to implement these changes. These are just ideas I’d love to present to someone who had the power to take these ideas, form them fully then hopefully change the game for the better.

Proposal To The Racing Commissioner

Outline of Issues To be Addressed
Coordinated Racing Calender
Breeders’ Cup
Year End Awards
Drug Policies and Rule Enforcement
Wagering And Customer Service
Daily Irregularities
Marketing
Breeding
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Coordinated Racing Calender

Reduce Total Number Of Racing Dates – As a result many tracks would be eliminated as well, or at least unsanctioned. One of racing’s biggest problems is that it is far too common. It seems to be always going on. Create demand by restricting supply. A reduction in racing dates would mean that fewer races are carded and therefore produce larger fields, which in turn are more attractive betting options. The president of Churchill Downs is already on record in support of this idea.

Eliminate Majority of Mid Week Racing – Most of the races run in North America every week are run while the general populace is at work. Not many people watch or bet on Thursday afternoon cards. Except for special circumstances, like Saratoga and Del Mar, the majority of mid-week racing would be eliminated. If we want people to be interested in racing and ultimately support it financially it needs to be primarily conducted at times that are convenient for the the public at large.

Logically Structure Graded Stakes Calendar – This would require an immense amount of organization but at present each track decides for itself when stakes races are to be run. I would like to coordinate all of them into a logical streamlined sequence so we have minimal overlap.

A host of stakes races would also be downgraded to more accurately reflect the quality of those races. Most likely this would also involve the elimination of certain stakes races with an eye towards attracting fuller fields for the remaining Graded Stakes. Many Graded Stakes races for 2yo’s or 3yo’s in the spring would be eliminated because there is currently an imbalance in that area. This would also be a great time to reduce the total number of Graded Stakes offered to 2yo’s in a bid to shift the focus away from pushing young horses.

Allow Restricted Stakes Graded Status – The intent behind Grading Stakes races is to easily identify races of quality and compare them. I think that allowing Grading within races within gender restricted stakes but not allow it for state-bred restricted stakes is inconsistent. A state-bred restriction does not make a race inherently weaker than a restriction that only allows 2yo fillies to compete. A race like the Sunshine Millions Classic is at least deserving of G-3 status. The failure to Grade these and many other Restricted Stakes gives a false impression of the quality of the race.

Institute a Winter Break – The off-season in sports was not created just because weather makes playing year round difficult. One reason for having an off-season is a chance for the athletes to recharge and recover. Another great reason for an off-season is that it builds anticipation for the fans. I would love to see a winter break created that begins the moment the Breeders Cup Classic has finished and ends with the Sunshine Millions. Perhaps as part of the restructuring of the stakes schedule I would look to make the opening weekend a big gala with much more than just the Sunshine Millions.

By removing three months of the racing year I know that many trainers and jockeys would find times to be very hard. But European trainers and jockeys have always survived with an off-season so it certainly can be done. The purse money saved from not racing for three months would help boost the financial incentives during the rest of the year and hopefully create fuller fields. It might also have a big positive impact on reducing injuries because many horses would get more time off than they currently enjoy.

Overview - Essentially what is being asked here is that racing drastically reduce the amount of product it makes available. This may require closing several smaller tracks but often a consolidation is necessary for further growth. Right now racing is overstretched and all the branches are suffering. By pruning back the gross number of races being offered I think we’d see much greater strength in those remaining. While pruning back racing dates I’d love to see the racing season structured in a way that fans can easily follow. The PGA just went through a complete schedule overhaul and reorganization. Racing would benefit from a similar exercise.
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Breeders’ Cup

Reformat the Breeders’ Cup as the year-end championships – If this is supposed to be the championship day then the races run should each correspond to a divisional championship. The notion of a Ladies day is offensive to some is going to be a hard sell to the general populace. Put all the Divisional Championship races on Saturday and make Friday’s card an evening affair. The general populace IS at work on Friday. Start the card at 5 or 6pm and go until 10pm. That gives you an event that people can actually watch and once again strengthens Saturday’s card into a true championship event. The actual lineup of Breeders’ Cup races as per my suggestion is listed below. If any more races needed to be added to balance Friday’s card add a Juvenile Sprint and Juvenile Fillies Sprint.

Friday:
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Breeders’ Cup Marathon
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
Breeders’ Cup Mile

Saturday:
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
Breeders’ Cup Sprint
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic (Filly and Mare Classic)
Breeders’ Cup Turf
Breeders’ Cup Classic

Refurbish Hialeah as the home of the Breeders’ Cup – An alternative would be to build a brand new home specifically for the Breeders’ Cup. If this were ever to become a reality it would need the financial backing of a very rich person who is not all that interested in getting the money back soon. Or perhaps money generated from the sale and closure of defunct racetracks around the country could be funneled into this project. Both these ideas for financing are hopeless longshots at best but consider the advantages of this idea.

A permanent home for the Breeders’ Cup in a warm climate that is close to a major airport. They could run it on the same weekend every year. While they’re refurbishing the track they could create an outer Turf track like the one at Woodbine. This would attract Europeans. They could have a main track of dirt and an inner track with an All Weather surface.

If the Breeders’ Cup had it’s own racetrack that hosted a brief boutique meet each year it would even give some relevance to the current BC expansion.

Market the Breeders’ Cup more aggressively in foreign markets - The Europeans are basically on board with the BC but Japan, Hong Kong, South Africa and Australia aren’t. I know that in some cases there are major conflicts because their own seasons are in full swing but the BC must recognize that the Dubai World Cup has done a far better job of attracting foreign participation in a much shorter time. I’m not sure if there is one magic bullet for attracting more foreign horses but I’d certainly spend a great deal of time looking at and trying out ways to attract them. Not only does it create better racing and a true World Championship it would also increase handle dramatically.

These other cultures have no problem betting heavily while in North America society is still somewhat reserved about gambling. If you could attract the fans here or get the horses here and open the pools to them back home I think we’d see an immense increase in handle. Instead of the current plan that involves diluting the quality to increase handle this would be adding to the quality while increasing handle.

More to follow in the days to come……………….

Weekend Overview: Racing in the spring tends to be odd in that the weekends are often feast or famine. The week between the Derby and the Preakness is hardly the quietest of the year but neither is there much action generally. Most of the focus is on the Derby aftermath and the Preakness buildup. This weekend I was thankful for a good reason not to think about the Derby aftermath.

Performance of the Week: This is far from an original selection but I think Casino Drive put in the performance of the week for many different reasons. First of all it was simply a very good race by an inexperienced horse who was facing a lot of obstacles. It’s not easy for a three year old maiden winner to step into G-2 company and walk away with the race. Add to that the challenges of shipping to a new continent and all the variables that brings. It’s a lot for a young horse to handle but it seemed to make no difference to him. He was simply much better than the rest. It was also a great performance because of the story of his dam. He will now try to become Better Than Honour’s third foal in succession to win the Belmont Stakes. The fact that he is an undefeated runner from Japan only adds to the intrigue. You can bet that if Big Brown wins the Preakness there will definitely be a division among fans. Some will cheer for a Triple Crown while others will root for one of the most amazing triples ever.

Race of the Week:If you love racing then you found plenty to keep you interested this week but no single race stood out as particularly noteworthy in this respect.

Flop of the Weekend: They say you can’t make a silk purse out of a sows ear. When he was first sent over Champs Elysees simply looked like a silk purse that hadn’t been matched up with the appropriate gown and shoes. Most people thought Frankel would have him dolled up and ready for the red carpet in no time. But after the Jim Murray he’s looking a lot more like a dowdy old leather bag. Champs Elysees did finish second to the defending champ but that’s an optimists spin. The reality is that he got beaten squarely in a four horse field that he towered over and this is just another disappointment in a career marked by underachievement. He will probably win another race or two but he’s a money burner who is not up to making himself a dominant force in the division.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Not a great of movement atop the standings. Big Brown remains the top ranked horse in the nation. Really the only other horse of note to be in action was Champs Elysees who is the #2 Turf Male but is well back of Einstein in first.

Tip O’the Cap:Hidetoshi Yamamoto and Kazuo Fujisawa please step forward. I wish more owners and trainers had the guts and pioneering spirit of these two. To bring a once raced maiden winner half way across the world to compete in a race tough race like the Belmont was very courageous and as it happens extremely well timed. Little did they know but their decision to bring their talented colt Casino Drive to America was just the tonic needed after the Derby tragedy. Nothing helps us get over a fallen hero than the debut of a potential superstar. Casino Drive, Better Than Honour and these two Japanese citizens are great stories for racing. A breath of fresh air just when the stench injuries and activists had become too much.

KC Handicapping:Well drat, I took some risks against three horses who were highly touted but unproven. All of them ended up winning. Luckily I included the clause that stated I only wanted Man of Danger if Executive Fleet scratched so I don’t get docked for that one. Still he ran a great race to be second at 7/1. I took a shot against Casino Drive in the Peter Pan but that one stung me as he turned out to be quite impressive. Still I used the best two alternatives including Mint Lane who was 18/1. Bonfante just never picked it up and Street Boss proved to be the real deal.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 3(2)-0-1-1 (-$6.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 521(263)-95-91-74 (-$90.60 -8.69% ROI)

Peter Pan Stakes
It’s impossible to know what kind of horse Casino Drive is at this stage but I think he is worth betting against. We know he’s royally bred and was impressive in Japan in his only start. But even an impressive maiden in the US is not usually enough to make me take them when stepping into G-2 company next out. There are a ton of variables here and I think romanticism is the cheif factor with his 2/1 morning line. Raw times are difficult to compare but 9f is 1:54 is exceptionally slow. I’d rather let him beat me because all signs point against him. I think the pace will be moderate. Neither Golden Spikes nor Mint Lane will want to make a duel out of this. I think that Golden Spikes will actually prefer to be just off the pace. He’s a horse who is consistently inconsistent and although he looks tough on paper I will not be shocked to see him run worse than expected. Mint Lane is the speed horse I fear much more. If you give him the lead he’s going to run a very good race and may prove tough to catch. He’s a must use at the price. I’m also high on Ready’s Echo. You have to love a horse that can close into any pace at all. Belmont should suit him perfectly and while he may not stay beyond 9f he should be able to produce his kick at this distance. I worry that he falls too far out of it but he’s been working well and I think he’s sitting on a big one. So in trying to beat the hype I’m covering both sides of the coin. I’ll take the horse who should lead them and the horse who will be last in the early stages.

Mint Lane
Ready’s Echo

Los Angeles Handicap
I’m eager to see the prices in this one. Street Boss figures to be bet off that nice 106 Beyer in his last and Bilo is a G-1 winner on the track. I’m hoping all of this spells a bit of a price on Bonfante. Maybe something like 4/1. The seven year old McAnally trainee has never been better. Last year he was stuck in a bit of a rutt. It was typified by his race in the Cal Cup Sprint. Bilo led from start to finish but Bonfante looked as if he’d go past all through the lane. He just never got there. That was just 1 of his 4 tight losses in a 6 race losing streak. He broke out of that funk in fine style this year and his been carrying all before him. The switch back to the all weather surface should not be a problem. The pace will be hot with Bilo (who will also take some beating in my opinion) Sailors Sunset, Barber and even High Standards who will be forced to go early from the #1 hole. I think the figure Street Boss got last time is just dust and air, he’s really not that far above these and really his class is a big question mark. He should be coming but not in time to catch the old warrior Bonfante.

Bonfante

Bold Ruler Handicap
This is a race I’ll only play if the favorite Executive Fleet comes out. The Linda Rice trainee is the best horse and has the speed to ruin the chances of the horse I’d perfer to play. Executive Fleet is being considered for bigger prizes so there is a good chance he’ll scratch. If he does most of the support should come in for Lucky Island. There are a lot of vibes going around that he could be a good thing but pace makes the race and if the favorite does come out it basically leaves the pace to Man of Danger. Not only is he the controlling speed but he’s also got the best figures among the rest of the field. He gets Johnny V and will certainly be sent from the rail. They’ll have a really tough time catching this horse.

Man Of Danger

So much is put into the Derby. Months of lists, charts, anticipation and analysis. It’s kind of sad that it’s all over in a matter of two minutes. A lot transpires on Derby day and in many cases it causes us to forget the path we took to get there. In this post I’m going to try and bring up a few interesting points of review, perhaps draw some conclusions and also evaluate my own performance with the Derby Top 10, final analysis and use of statistics with the 20-20 system.

What we learned

Big Brown is definitely the superior animal some suspected he was. When a horse really is that good he tends to be able to overcome the unconventional. Convention is for mortals.

The Derby was an easy race for Big Brown after all.

The record of rookie trainers in the Derby gets better and better.

Statistics based on arbitrary lines took yet another hit demonstrating how limited they actually are. The actual number of starts does not and has never mattered. What matters is the experience a horse gets from the starts he or she has.

The Californian’s weren’t that great after all. Despite the great Cushion to dirt results we saw from Zenyatta, Tiago, Gayego and Sierra Sunset it did to change the fact that the horses simply weren’t as good as the bet of those running in the Derby.

Despite the fact that no horse who had their last prep on an artificial surface hit the frame I don’t think it’s been exposed as a bad way to go. There is a difference between what is true and the truth. What is true is that 6 of the 9 horses who had their last prep on a surface other than dirt finished in the bottom half of the field. Including 5 of the last 6. But the truth is that just one year prior the exacta was filled with horses who had their last prep on Polytrack. The truth is that it’s horse specific. Running on an all weather surface doesn’t make your good horse bad, but what it does do is make it harder to see a horses real merit on dirt.

Other than Big Brown, Eight Belles and perhaps Tale of Ekati we didn’t learn how good any of these horses really are. We learned how good some of them aren’t but the Derby rarely reflects the actual upper level of a horse’s ability.

All along we’ve been saying that the crop is slow and the derby did little to change that perception. Big Brown is definitely an exception but the rest of the colts are not very fast as this stage.

Once again we see that tactical speed has an enormous advantage in the Derby. Big Brown and Eight Belles both had the speed to put themselves right where they needed to be while Denis of Cork and Colonel John needed a pace setup and luck with weaving through the field. We mention this every year

Derby Top 10 accountability

You can read the entire Derby Top 10 here (Derby Top 10). The final list was definitely better than the first list. Big Brown was ranked second and Eight Belles was ranked fourth. Denis of Cork nor Tale Of Ekati were included. At one time or another Tale of Ekati and Denis of Cork were ranked as high as third and second respectively but poor results saw them dropped altogether.

My first Top 10 of 2008 had Tale of Ekati ranked third but none of the top three finishers were included. Only five of the those Top 10 even ran in the Derby. For the most accurate listing I should have stopped on April 1st. At that time I had Denis of Cork in second, Big Brown in fifth and Eight Belles in tenth. That was the only week that all three of them were listed in my Top 10.

Overall I’d say my Derby Top 10 performance was poor. I’m a skeptic by nature so I’m not quick to jump on horses like Big Brown and I’m also quick to give up on horses that I perceive as failures. Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati were both highly thought of at one point in the spring and both were eliminated after single poor performances.

Derby 20-20 Roundup

The top ranked horse didn’t win so was the 20-20 a failure? My estimation is no it was not and here a few reasons why.

There were no perfect qualifiers so right off the top one had to assume that the Derby was not going to be as easy as betting on the top ranked qualifier. The 548.89% ROI gleaned from betting only the perfect qualifiers stayed in tact. (By the way you can view the updated results of the 20-20 system here)

Big Brown was the second ranked contender and Eight Belles was co-third ranked. An exacta box on the top 5 contenders according to the 20-20 system paid off for the second year in a row, and had you followed that system since 1996 you would have made a 60.51% profit.

Much of the media are going to hold up Big Brown as yet another “rule breaker”. Proof that statistics don’t work and yet I don’t see that at all. All the supposed “rules” he broke had to do with experience yet the 20-20 system claimed that his experience was sufficient. What he lacked was fitness. He failed to have two preps around two turns and his closing fractions in the Florida Derby were just a bit too slow.

What Big Brown did show is that good horses in weak fields can overcome these aspects. I think his lack of preps at two turns was still a negative but for a horse that good compared to his competition it doesn’t matter.

Going forward I see few if any changes needed to the 20-20 system. I think it performed quite well. I may work on refining the average closing fraction calculations. Big Brown apparently didn’t close his last race fast enough but that was based on an average that included preps on All Weather surfaces which were significantly faster because of the pace scenarios. Perhaps fractions earned on All Weather surfaces will have to be calculated separately.

I’m also interested in incorporating Thoro-Graph Sheet Figures as another speed calculation. I have back data and it looks very good but the problem is that they don’t provide any of these figures for free and I’m not sold on paying their prices for a hobby system.

In the end I still very much believe that statistics are a useful tool in determining the Derby outcome.

Personal Derby Handicapping

After all the analysis and statistics did I actually come up with the right horse? No, unfortunately I went for Colonel John and Eight Belles on top. But overall I did think that I was on the right track. I did not use Big Brown in the straight win pool but I did use him in the exotics over my keys and other contenders. I went against Big Brown for the win but I still respected him greatly. I also liked Denis of Cork among a few others to hit the frame and my overall projection of the pace turned out to be correct. I feel like I was on the right track but just missed because I wanted to get fancy and drop the favorite. My overall handicapping performance was good but not great.

Applications for tickets to the Breeders’ Cup have been mailed out and are due by June 9th. Some people seem a bit disgruntled at the price increases. Here is the information on prices according to Breeders’ Cup.com

“Prices for tickets for the 25th Breeders’ Cup will range from $20 for one-day general grandstand admission ($15 for Santa Anita’s Thoroughbreds Club members) to reserved grandstand seats ranging from $200 to $600, depending on location, for the two-day package.”

I have not been the biggest supporter of the Breeders’ Cup organization since Greg Avioli took over as CEO. In general I think they’re conspiring to dilute a fantastic event solely in hopes of increasing handle. I don’t like a lot of decisions they’ve made but an increase in ticket prices is something I do support.

I suppose I should add the proviso off the top that I likely won’t go to the BC this year. Scheduling and the overall cost of the trip are the two barriers. But if it was local I definitely would attend. It’s a premier event and I expect to pay premier prices.

I realize that not everyone is in a financial position to purchase tickets at these prices but people need to realize that their personal financial situation is not a key determinant in the market valuation. Simply put, it’s a shame that the everyday fan might be priced out of the market but how many average joes attend the Super Bowl?

Let’s look at approximate costs of other major sporting events in North America.

Stanley Cup Playoffs: $170-$715
Grey Cup: $175-$815
Major League Soccer Cup: $115-$2,500
Sugar Bowl: $195-$448
NCAA Semi-Final/Final Combo: $999-2575

For those who don’t know the Grey Cup is the championship game for the Canadian Football League. Does the Breeders’ Cup really look out of place now? Which one of these events is as long or would personally give you as much enjoyment? The Super Bowl is not even listed here because prices for those tickets are other worldly. They’re on a totally different scale and the comparison is unrealistic. But for a closer comparison a seat on Preakness day will costs somewhere between $75-110. The BC is selling seats for two days for $200-$600. That means the cheapest seats for the BC are approximately $100 per day. That’s just $25 more than the Preakness and the BC still offers $20 general admission. Pimlico charges $25 for general admission on it’s signature day.

These are reasonable prices people. Just because you’re not used to paying that much doesn’t mean the price is high, it means you haven’t really looked at it objectively. The Breeders’ Cup might just be the best value major sporting event on the continent.

You could also look at this from another angle. Racing is looking for ways to generate revenue. Traditionally it has all come from handle, but Breeders’ Cup day offers the chance to shift the percentages a little. The main income will still come from the handle but think of the type of people who buy the most expensive seats. Many of them are big shots from other walks of life who are not really into racing. Kind of similar to the Derby the Breeders’ Cup wants to make the event seem like a red carpet type of thing. An annual place to be seen. The problem with these people is that for all their wealth they’re extremely uncomfortable at the windows.

You all heard the interviews on Derby day. Celebrities all plan on betting but they’re generally uncomfortable putting down more than $50. So in other words most of them pay more for their seat than they generate in handle. The only realistic way to shift those percentages is to make the seats cheaper because you’re not going to make them into hardcore gamblers in a day or two.

Why would we not want to raise ticket prices, especially on the highest end seats? That’s the best way to get money out of those patrons. Let’s face it, the whales who generally push huge numbers through the windows don’t do it from a luxury box. The way to get more money from them is to improve the product they can wager on. But for those who are not comfortable wagering large amounts this is the best way to maximize revenue. Anything they bet is gravy.

The Breeders’ Cup despite all the changes is still the best day of racing. It’s the best day to watch and bet on and in my opinion it’s the best value for a major sporting event anywhere. The seat prices are competitively priced and if you really can’t afford it you still have the general admission. I don’t see the Super Bowl selling “standing room only” tickets for cut rate prices. No other sport has a cheap outlet like that. We’re actually quite blessed.

Weekend Overview: Kentucky Derby weekend is a weekend of celebration for racing fans. It is quite a shame that both Oaks and Derby day were marred by high profile breakdowns but if one was able to look past the tragedy there was a ton of good racing on display. One cannot say enough about how good Big Brown is and may still become. Proud Spell was dominant in a picture perfect Oaks. Ginger Punch came back to form and Einstein solidified his status as the best Turf horse in the nation. Elite Squadron put in quite a race and suddenly looks like one of the better 7f horses in the nation. We had favorites, longshots, tight finishes and overpowering performances. It really was all a racing fan could ask for.

Performance of the Week: There are three horses in the Kentucky Derby who should be singled out for special praise. The first is obviously Big Brown. Dutrow was right, this was a bit of an easy race. It probably shouldn’t have been but clearly we’re looking at a horse who is as special as any we’ve seen in recent years. Big Brown has still never been seriously challenged and injury seems like a bigger threat to a Triple Crown sweep than his competition does. Eight Belles also deserves special mention. She ran a whale of race and without Big Brown she’d have been a most impressive winner. I think she was somewhat disadvantaged around the far turn when Big Brown made his easy move and she tried to get revved up but had to stop in behind horses. It would not have changed the order of finish but she would have finished closer. Recapturetheglory also deserves a nod for his game 5th place finish. I have to admit I thought this horse would be contesting 19th place but he stayed on very well even after getting passed. It left you with the impression that this horse could still improve and he likely has another few stakes wins in him as well.

Race of the Week: If you love racing then you loved the Humana Distaff. What a race, I still have no idea how Hystericalady got beat. It really was a shame because she did all the hard work and was clearly the best horse but Baroness Thatcher and Intangaroo made the race an absolute thriller. It seemed impossible that they’d get there but somehow they nipped the classy favorite right on the line. This has to be an early contender for race of the season.

Flop of the Weekend: I’m inclined not to give it to any horse exiting the Derby. Sure Colonel John let a host of his fans down but I’m not sure if it’s a case of him flopping because his trip wasn’t great. Instead I’m going to focus my ire on Sugar Swirl. She really had no excuse. I have no idea why her rider insisted on being right on the pace. It forced her way wide, meanwhile a horse she can handle easily, Baroness Thatcher was sitting in the catbird seat just waiting for the speed to fold. That should have been Sugar Swirl and we ought to have seen a better performance from her.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Big Brown leads the shake up in the TCR standings. Courtesy of his Derby win and undefeated record he shoots to the top ahead of Einstein ending the reign of Bustin Stones who enjoyed 4 weeks at the top. With the Preakness seemingly at his mercy Big Brown appears to be a solid choice to hold the #1 spot for the next few months or at least until Curlin gets back. Einstein has had a phenomenally consistent year and is clearly the top Turf Male. Intangaroo continues her shocking season with another G-1 victory at long odds. She is the top Female Sprinter and top Main Track Older Female as well as being the 5th ranked horse in the nation overall. The tragic hero Eight Belles owns the #1 spot in the Three Year Old Female division narrowly over stablemate Proud Spell. Little Belle, Golden Doc A and Bsharpsonata who finished together in the Oaks are tightly grouped in the rankings as well.

Tip O’the Cap: In times past it behooved a gentleman to doff his cap to a lady. You rarely see such behavior now except when inspired by the presence of a great lady. I have a feeling that many a cap was removed following the Kentucky Derby when the gallant Eight Belles met an unfortunate end. It was such a cruel time for a tragedy as it came just moments after her greatest achievement. Eight Belles was no match for Big Brown but she did handle the rest of the field with ease. She put in a phenomenal performance to run a clear second and was the best filly in the nation in my opinion. Her injury was just a freak occurrence. It had nothing to do with the Derby itself or Jones running a less than fit horse, it was just one of those things. My condolences go out to Larry Jones, Rick Porter and everyone at Fox Hill Farms. You never get used to things like this but I am glad that we got to witness how good she really was. And so I tip my cap to Eight Belles, a great lady of thoroughbred racing.

KC Handicapping: Another slightly negative week but at least this time the signs were there. Had some tough beats with Hystericalady getting caught in the last jump and Chelokee breaking down while my second and third picks in that race filled out the exacta. The most shocking defeat of all was seeing Bayou’s Lassie beat Dreaming Of Anna at her own game. After seeing how speed was holding up on the grass I thought Anna was a cinch. So I lost money on these straight picks but I did have some live horses and usually I had someone to cheer in the lane.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 16(12)-4-3-2 (-$4.20 -13.13% ROI)
Overall record: 518(261)-95-90-73 (-$84.60 -8.17% ROI)

Churchill Downs Stakes
Wanderin Boy’s inclusion makes the race an interesting one. I was expecting Commentator to be here instead. Zito’s decision to run in the Alysheba or here will have a big impact on both races. For now I’ll assume that he’s not going to run here. I think he’ll get his wet track on Friday and go with that. Without him it looks as though the pace will be moderate. Hewitts has some early speed but I think Elite Squadron will control the pace. Elite Squadron has done very well when he’s allowed to get out there and lead. He nearly stole the Commonwealth and he’ll be out to pull off the same trick. Hewitts is the wild card but I think he’ll just offer mild pressure. Spotsgone should also offer some pressure but he does not have a sprinters speed. Because Elite Squadron can control the pace he will be the horse to beat. Junior College and Noonmark are the main threats to run him down. Junior College has been performing at a very high level lately. If not for Semaphore Man he’d have won his last 5 races. He’s not brilliant but he is the most consistently fast sprinter in the race. This is a big test for Noonmark. It’s a chance to prove that he is not the horse who repeatedly failed to live up to expectations as a 3yo. He should get a perfect stalking trip and I think that on his best day he can handle Junior College. I’m not really confident in this race but I’d likely look for Elite Squadron to wire them or for Noonmark to nail him late. As a saver I’d also use Junior College in the exacta. I’m not a fan of Wanderin Boy or Spotsgone sprinting so I’ll oppose them.

Elite Squadron
Noonmark

La Troienne Stakes
This is a pretty evenly matched field on paper but the overall quality is not that great. I have a feeling that someone will step their game and win pretty easily. Secret Gypsy, Game Face, Informed Decision, Keep The Peace and Alina all have the capability to put in a big effort and win. Obviously not all of them will. I don’t really like Alina cutting back from the route nor Secret Gypsy returning from a huge maiden last year. I think Game Face is a slightly better horse than Keep The Peace and I like that she prefers to come from off the pace. Perhaps because the field is even on paper Game Face will stay in the 3/1 region. She is the tepid choice here.

Game Face

Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes
Tough to know whether or not it’s wise to stick with Dreaming of Anna and just move on to the next race or look to get lucky and beat her. Anna’s record on the grass is 9-7-2-0 and she is coming in off of an explosive race in the Hillsborough where she absolutely creamed the field. A flat mile is a slightly different game, she’ll have a lot more pace pressure from Bayou’s Lassie (if she runs) New Edition and even Sharp Susan. It’ll be all eyes on Anna and rightly so. She is the controlling speed and the classiest horse in the race. Sharp Susan and Ventura are the only ones who can beat Anna if she is on the top of her game. Sharp Susan beat Criminologist last time and that one came back to win a stakes at Aqueduct. She is sometimes a bit fresh and that has seen her get beaten more than she should have been. I’ll play against her because of the price and the fact that some of her best races have come on the front end. Her rankness in other starts maybe indicates that she prefers to be in front. But she won’t be here. Ventura is the scary horse. We’d be lying if we said we knew what she was capable of. She has certainly been flawless on this continent and her running style does suggest proficiency at a mile. But there definitely is a wild card angle in that we’ve never seen her go this far in America nor encounter this type of turf course. She is the reason that I’d stay out of this race in real life but for the purposes of a selection I think you need to stick with the class of Dreaming of Anna. This fixture has seen a longshot or two in the past and I think this years longshot play is You Go West Girl. She does not look capable in terms of her speed but there are a few things to like. She is undefeated at a mile and her two best races have come at Churchill Downs. She is in good form right now and Leparoux is a perfect fit for her. I think that if she runs a race similar to the one she ran in the Regret last year she could definitely hit the frame and maybe even squeak by them if Anna gets softened up and Ventura doesn’t fire.

Dreaming Of Anna
You Go West Girl

Humana Distaff Stakes
Wow, this definitely lives up to it’s G-1 billing. It’s a top quality race from post 1 to 9. The headliners are obviously Hystericalady, who is the defending champ, and Sugar Swirl the hottest sprinter in the nation. Miraculous Miss, Miss Macy Sue, Graeme Six and Baroness Thatcher are no easy touches either and of course that still leaves Intangaroo who has done nothing except win 2 of 3 starts this year including a G-1 over Hystericalady. I think the 7f distance will be a key factor. Miss Macy Sue, Graeme Six and Miraculous Miss all look like better 6f horses. The pace may also be key since there does not seem to be a ton of it. You’ll probably see Change Up going to the front. She has a great record at CD and stands a good chance of hitting the frame but I do think that Hystericalady and Sugar Swirl will be too much for her. I’m going to give the edge to Hystericalady. She will likely show more speed from the 1 hole and she has been nearly unbeatable on dirt in the last year. Her running lines look almost the same as they did prior to the 2007 running of this race and I think she can pull one over on the Stronach filly. Price is not great though so it’s likely just a great race to watch.

Hystericalady

Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes
At this stage last year Einstein looked like he was getting ready to become the best turf horse in America. Things went badly for him that day and they got worse when he fell at Pimlico two weeks later. He’s back and looking as good as ever. In three turf starts only Kip Deville has defeated him. I think he has a favorites chance again but it is hard not to notice that he is 0 for 3 at Churchill. Not only is he 0 for 3 but he not managed to hit yet at CD yet. It is not necessarily a clear cut case of him hating the track because he has performed at a very high level here it still makes me quite nervous. Looking for alternatives is not that easy. I’m not a big fan of the Californian Turf form and War Monger has some serious questions to answer after his last debacle. It really leaves me to Thorn Song and perhaps that’s the best place to land anyway. Thorn Song has been a bit of a blog pet but I dumped him after the Canadian Turf and swore I wouldn’t look at him again until he showed signs of good form. I was actually surprised how well he did in the Makers Mark Mile. That was a very tough field and he hung on grimly for third just a head behind Einstein. He in undefeated on this course including a very nice win over Cosmonaut and he is the only horse with speed. A recent bullet has me convinced he’s back on song and we already know he’s a tough customer when he’s good. He also handles off going so rain would not bother him. I’d use him on top with Einstein and War Monger underneath.

Thorn Song

Kentucky Derby
So much thought and analysis has gone into this race it’s almost a relief to sit down and write out my final thoughts. There are so many points to cover and directions one could go but I want to start off by saying that virtually no result will surprise me. Aside from Anak Nakal I think all of these horses belong and hats off to those who hit the trifecta without going more than 5 horses deep because in a field like this I’d be tempted to use just about everyone. I think a lot of the hype regarding Big Brown is justified. He is a very likely winner of this race but I will be opposing him for one reason. I think the distance will get to him. I do not expect a fast pace that sets things up for closers. I think the pace will be moderate and fair. This will help Big Brown but he has had a lack of seasoning in route races and I think the final furlong will find him out. The added ground loss from the outside post also won’t help. It won’t be the reason he loses but ground loss could get to him just like Unbridled’s Song. I don’t really fear dropping him despite all the hype. He will be nowhere near the best horse to lose the Kentucky Derby. I may actually have a saver exacta of sorts on him just in case the pace is ridiculously slow. I think Big Brown along with Cowboy Cal and maybe Z Humor would cover that possibility nicely. I like two separate horses for the win spot. Colonel John is a solid Derby horse from head to toe and perhaps the result that would shock me most is seeing him run poorly. He might not win but I’m expecting a huge race. We all know his merits but beyond what you see on paper he simply has the look of a Derby winner. Colonel John will be atop of every ticket and pivotal to all my Derby plays. I do think there is another legitimate winner in the race and that is Eight Belles. I certainly hope the public turns a blind eye to this amazon. The morning line on her reads 15/1 to me that is a steal and might be the best value in the race. No other horse in the Derby has combined speed, brilliance, toughness, versatility and consistency like she has. Some say her last race was somewhat unimpressive. I actually loved it, it showed that she has the guts for a battle. She isn’t all about a quick burst of pace or simply outclassing lesser foes. Without that gut check I probably wouldn’t be backing her because racing against males requires more than just talent. She’ll need to be brave and tough. I really am looking forward to a good race from her. I think she’ll be the first meaningful contender to get to Big Brown which means I fully expect her to be leading the derby in deep stretch. Whether or not the Colonel can get to her we’ll have to wait and see. So Colonel John and Eight Belles on top, Colonel John is slightly preferred but Eight Belles is the value play. For underneath I like a few horses that might go under the radar. I have already mentioned Cowboy Cal and Z Humor. I think both are sitting on a big race. For all the criticism of Pletcher in the Derby he has actually had some underrated horses hit the board. Cowboy Cal can run all day and stands a good chance of picking up a piece. Z Humor’s campaign has not gone the way it was supposed to but he is coming into the best form of his campaign. He has always been faster than Court Vision and I think he is the better of the Mott pair. At different points this spring only four horses have impressed me as possible examples of complete Derby horses Colonel John, Z Fortune, Denis of Cork and Eight Belles. You will find mention of them in my Derby Top 10 archive. I have chosen not to select Z Fortune or Denis of Cork as winners but I’d kick myself if they ran good races and I left them out. For various reasons those two are no longer the solid contenders they once appeared to be but the potential is still there. I think it would be the ultimate Derby for me if those four completed the superfecta. So in summary my plays will focus on Colonel John and Eight Belles in the win spot. Z Fortune, Denis of Cork, Cowboy Cal and Z Humor will be used underneath in exacta’s and I also advocate a saver on Big Brown just in case. I’d also use Big Brown on the bottom of trifecta’s and super’s. Best of luck to all in the Derby.

Colonel John
Eight Belles

Kentucky Stakes
This race has been owned by Steve Asmussen in recent years. He’s won 5 of the last 6 runnings and he’s got the highly rated Merkel in this one. I’m inclined to go against him though as I was not all that impressed with the way Merkel broke his maiden. There looks like an abundance of speed in this race but that is because most of these horses are exiting winning performances in 4 1/2f races and realistically most of them are won wire to wire. That doesn’t mean these horses are all pure speed and we’re headed for a pace meltdown. In fact I think the speed of the speed will have an advantage. The speed of the speed in my opinion is Dicey Riley. I loved his maiden victory and he came out of that and drilled a 4f bullet. Ward has known for a while that this was a good colt. He had him out in California in the spring and brought him along to Kentucky when Keeneland opened instead of staying in Cal. I think this horse is the goods, the stable is hot and Gomez stays on board. I want to highlight trainer Wesley Ward just a bit because he might not be that well known to everyone. He has not had very many good horses and despite some success he is not even well known as a proficient 2yo trainer. The reason is because his stable and training styles are geared for speed. His horses always seem to break well and either set or contest the pace. I have not seen many of his horses stretch out successfully. That may have to do with breeding and training styles. But there is no question that the one thing he excels at is short 2yo sprints early in the year. He has won a ton of 2yo races at Keeneland, Santa Anita and Hollywood before the month of June. The horse I fear most is Garden District. Fillies often mature faster than males and she looked very good coming from just off the pace at Keeneland. I’d box her in the exacta with Dicey Riley.

Dicey Riley

Aegon Turf Sprint Stakes
This is the first stakes race that is officially a part of the Derby/Oaks weekend and while I have not seen the fields for all the stakes on Saturday this race may yield my pick of the weekend. I love Demarcation in this spot. He has been a solid late running sprinter all his life. His turf experience is limited but the two times he did test the sod he ran extremely well and those were in route races. He has a huge late kick and this race appears set to have a fast pace. The hot Mr. Nightlinger will have to deal with Indian Ashton, a California speedster from the Ward barn. I think the pace will be blazing and it sets up for a horse like Demarcation who by the way has a history against Mr. Nightlinger. Both horses have spent a lot of time at the Fair Grounds and in December they faced each other in an allowance. Mr Nightlinger got to set the pace by himself while Demarcation settled a good 8 lengths off the pace. At the line Mr Nightlinger just held off Demarcation but was DQ’ed for interfering with another runner. Demarcation then went out and tried his hand against the undefeated Euroears. He ran well but was no match for him. The off the turf route race in his last is not really a good barometer of his form. He will do much better back at a sprint distance. He has a history of doing some of his best running off a layoff and for a horse that rarely works fast the turf bullet in his last workout stands out.. Leparoux is also a good rider of late runners. He ready to go and he’s 8/1 on the morning line. I only hope people continue to overlook him.

Demarcation

Louisville Stakes
Ginger Punch went down surprisingly easy in her last race but I think she is setup well to rebound. She set the pace in the Apple Blossom which, if you look at her running lines, is not her best game. Especially going a route of ground. Here she gets Bayou’s Lassie to set the tempo for her just like in the Sunshine Million Distaff. Unless her form is really tailing off this ought to be a walk in the park for her. Even rain should not derail the mission. She has great form on off tracks. It’s an uninteresting selection but I think it’s the right one.

Ginger Punch

Edgewood Stakes
I think this is another race that boils down to the favorites. Grace and Power versus Zee Zee. Both have plenty of merit and it would actually shock me if neither of them won the race. If you’re playing a multi-race exotic I think you have to use both and move on. But if you’re just playing the race in isolation I think for profitability’s sake we need to pick one and go with that. Grace And Power is making her 2008 debut after a 2yo season that saw her finish second to Country Star in the Starlet and run third in what was essentially the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. The ground was a bog that weekend and she ran a good race to be third. We know she handles off going so if the rain comes down on Friday that could play to her advantage. Her figures are solid and her form is air tight. Other than in the BC undercard race the only horses to beat her are Country Star and Bsharpsonata. Zee Zee’s form does not look as great upon first inspection because her last two running lines show her running out of the frame. But those races were on dirt and Poytrack. On the grass she has but one defeat and that came at the hands of Nownonow who won the inaugural BC Juvenile Turf. Her form on the grass is flawless otherwise and I think her race against Ariege in the Beaumont will serve as more of a tightener than anything. Mott does not usually crank his horses to do well of the bench. The form looks about equal between the favorites so it may come down to pace. Grace and Power was close to the pace in her first races but was taken steadily further back over her next few. I think the sharp recent works and the freshness will see her a bit keyed up. The pace could be sharp with a few speedy members of the field so I’m thinking that Zee Zee may have a slight advantage there. She has always shut off very well but has good tactical speed. I give her a very slight edge here.

Zee Zee

Alysheba Stakes
The key to this race is Jonesboro as long as he runs I don’t think Wanderin Boy will be up to the task. If for some reason Jonesboro scratches I think the Zito speedster will have the field by the throat. Wanderin Boy is a pretty easy horse to read. When he can set the pace by himself he wins. If not, he doesn’t. Jonesboro should ensure a solid pace and that leaves the race to Chelokee in my estimation. The Matz trainee was highly touted last year but through injury he never quite got on track. Still he’s won 4 of his last 5 races and he has shown a preference for Churchill Downs before. He is another horse who does not usually fire bullets in the morning but he did in his most recent work. This might be the coming out party for Chelokee. You have to respect Giant Gizmo as well given the way the Californians have done when coming east. He looks a step behind right now but dirt could move him up. I’d only use him underneath though as I’m a touch skeptical, he’s already had a try on dirt and it was not a big move forward. Another horse you need to keep an eye on is Better Than Bonds. He’s 10/1 but is an excellent upset candidate as well as a must use in exotics. He brings his best effort basically every time he runs and while he has generally looked better at Delaware than anywhere else I think his form needs to be respected.

Chelokee

Crown Royal American Turf Stakes
This race could go many ways, I’m hoping for a bit of a price. You have to respect Prussian and Cannonball. Prussian was touted as a potential superstar last year and if he’s ever going to live up to that you’d think he could handle a field like this. Cannonball has been knocking heads with the best and has been holding his own. Cowboy Cal and Why Tonto aren’t in this field so that should move him up right there. We also know that he loves the grass, any type of grass so his Polytrack form can be forgiven. The problem is that both horses like to be on the pace and so does Tizdejavu. Cape of Storms and Sailors Cap can also have some early foot if they feel like it. I prefer some horses coming from off the pace. Chief among them I feel is Free Fighter. I liked him in the Transylvania but that race came off the grass. He still ran a decent 5th that day but Turf is what he really wants. I think he has the potential to upset this race. He’s been working sharply and I think Chris Block is quite good at placing his horses. Nistle’s Crunch also needs to be respected. He ran a huge race at Keeneland last time and have performed well on the grass each time he’s been on it. It’s kind of shocking that neither Albarado nor Desormeaux wanted this mount. Boss Laffite and Halo Najib, who were chosen instead, don’t look anywhere near as good. That may add some value to the McPeek trainee. I suppose Blackberry road could find new life on the grass but I prefer horses with a little form on the grass.

Free Fighter
Nistle’s Crunch

Kentucky Oaks
This is the toughest race of the day without question if Eight Belles does not run. If the Porter filly stays in I like her to beat this field by open lengths but I really don’t expect her to run at all and that leaves the race wide open. The field really is crying out for a filly like Indian Blessing to lead them wire to wire. There is basically no true speed. Little Belle and Bsharpsonata have a bit but Elusive Lady will likely lead them. I took a long hard look at Elusive Lady hoping that there would be something I could cling to to bring this 30/1 shot home. But despite the clear advantage of being able to set any pace she wants I don’t think she can do it. She simply won’t stay and even with everything her own way I think they still run her down. She hasn’t even worked beyond 4f since last November at least. Even though Elusive Lady likely can’t win on the front end it still means we’ll likely have a slack pace and that could mean that the plucky Bsharpsonata could have another good race. This horse just won’t go away. It seems as though she is performing above herself right now and I keep looking for signs that she might regress but this little girl is all heart and is clearly ultra consistent. I can’t ignore her here, not with a slow pace that she should be able to track nicely. I think she’ll get first run on horses like Proud Spell, Pure Clan, Golden Doc A and Country Star, all legitimate potential winners, and I also think that she can dispose of Little Belle this time. I think Little Belle is actually too slow to handle the big guns in here. Bsharpsonata has already proven that she can pull out a big effort when she needs to. I could also be totally wrong and perhaps the late closing quartet (Proud Spell, Pure Clan, Golden Doc A, Country Star) will dominate the race despite the pace. I think Proud Spell is the classiest member of that trio but the worst bet on Oaks day. I much prefer Golden Doc A at 12/1. Everyone knows how well the Californians have done on dirt tracks. Losing twice to Ariege is no disgrace. She always seems to be coming too late but perhaps a move to dirt will see her step up her game. At the price you simply can’t leave her out. I think Pure Clan has improved this year and is coming up to a nice race, she is my third choice but I’m not quite sure that she merits a win wager on her nose. She is another that has been coming too late in her races but unlike Golden Doc A she has not won a race this year. Proud Spell and Country Star are both coming in off of lackluster efforts on Polytrack and they could easily rebound and win. But I think both will be bet down more than they should relative to their chances and they could easily both miss the frame. They’re classy but not scary.

Eight Belles
Bsharpsonata
Golden Doc A