Weekend Picks and Analysis

Nassau Stakes
I’m inclined to take a shot against both Sealy Hill and Arravale. Arravale has been out of form for some time now and while I’d like to believe she still has the talent somewhere it’s not worth taking any less than 15/1 on. Sealy Hill is the horse to beat and I don’t count her last race against her too much but overall I think she’s a better Polytrack horse than Turf horse and I think someone may be able to beat her with a career effort. Quiet Jungle is a good candidate to spring the upset. She chased Sealy Hill last year on the main track but was giving away a good amount of experience. In her turf debut this term she took the lead in the stretch but didn’t have enough to hold off a late runner. With more fitness beneath her I expect a good race. I’m also interested in Tell It As It Is. Her form is quite good and I can’t figure out the morning line of 15/1. She has not really been class tested on the grass but her form on the sod is better than it looks. She really developed as a racehorse last fall and I think she’s primed to take another step forward. I’m not high on her connections as they don’t win much but this has to be the best horse in the barn by a long way. There is not much between the top and bottom in this race so virtually anyone could step up and win it. The Niagara Queen is another horse I really respect but I’d likely just use her underneath.

Quiet Jungle
Tell It As It Is

Despite the fact that the Triple Crown is in full swing I find myself rather apathetic towards the buildup to what should be a one horse race.

Instead my energies have been focused on the buildup to the Breeders’ Cup. Yes even at this early stage! I spend a good deal of time working on statistical models for the established Breeders’ Cup races very similar to the Triple Crown 20-20 system. The system for the Breeders’ Cup debuted in 2007 and did reasonably well but as I continue to learn more about this game some things need to be adapted. Anyway this post is not really about my project although that clearly occupies a prominent space in my mind at the present. What I wanted to do was write a brief profile on the horses I think might be ones to watch out for the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Why the Mile? Because it happens to be my favorite Breeders’ Cup race and I’ve just spent the last week studying it.

Ever A Friend - If I were called to put down a future bet on the Mile right now, this would be the horse. I know he just lost to Daytona but he is definitely good enough to turn the tables if he were to be ridden from off the pace. The loss will only make his price higher when it counts as long as he doesn’t blow it by winning a BC prep impressively. He loves Santa Anita and is definitely a pure miler. It’s a shame it took switching barns to and 6 years to isolate his preference. He will likely get the summer off and will have a maximum of two more races before the Mile. Don’t let the inactivity cool you on his chances. It’s all by design and it’s a good design.

Kip Deville - He’s the defending champ and he’s going to be tough to beat. What I dislike about BC winners though is that after the race everyone assumes they should never lose again. Look at his record, this horse is capable of losing anytime but he’s still very dangerous when it counts. Connections are taking the notion of a light campaign to a new level with just 3 starts planned all year long. Not a lot of room for error with a schedule like that.

Daytona - Unquestionably a good horse, I initially was against him for the Mile because he seemed to be too good at longer distances and successful milers rarely are. He reminds me a bit of Aragorn who eventually finished second in the Mile. I love that he showed a new dimension in stalking the pace in the Shoemaker Mile. My one concern is the type of campaign he’ll get. I don’t want to see him running huge numbers through the summer. The horses that do always get well bet in the Breeders Cup and they usually fail to reproduce that form.

Cosmonaut - I love a horse that can hide good form in plain site because everyone has stopped looking. The smart money has played against him for years except in fields that were hopelessly over matched. He’d always find a way to lose, he has not won a photo in any race of his career because he generally quits when challenged. However the lovable loser has turned the page in my opinion and his last two races. Since switching to the Serpe barn I think he’s found a way to work past his mental blockage. His first start of the year he was facing an easy field but one member of that field decided to have a career day and pressed him hard all the way down the lane. Cosmanaut responded gamely and for the first time in his life he repelled the challenge and edged away. Next time out it was the Maker’s Mark Mile and a very tough field. He had virtually the worst trip imaginable in a race like this but he again came on gamely for 4th after finishing 8th seemed more likely. His record at a flat mile on the grass is deceptively good. It reads 8-2-2-1 but the Makers Mark Mile where he was beaten by 3 lengths after a horrible trip represents his worst performance at the distance. Many of the times he contested a Mile he established a new career Beyer high. He’s a closet miler who likely won’t even run a mile again until either the BC itself or the Kelso.

Hyperbaric - I had high hopes for this Canani trainee and still do in some respect. I think he’s a big talent and a natural miler but he clearly has mental issues to work through. He was in a good position in the Shoemaker until he started losing ground on the far turn and it looked as if he may finish last but then he surged again and just missed getting Ever A Friend. He had previously just been beaten by Daytona in a photo so there is no question that on his best day he has the talent but I’m convinced we haven’t really seen his best day. I’m not sure what it’ll take to get his best race out of him but he needs to learn how to change leads on cue, run in a straight line and stop running just in spots. If he puts all that together he could easily win this race.

Vacare - Is there an official title for the “best horse in active training that no one remembers” because she might be the top contender for that award. She’s 8-6-1-1 for her career, her only losses came to Wait A While at Saratoga and Cittronade and Price Tag at Hollywood. Her win in last year’s First Lady was what really put her on the radar for this race. She beat a dead game Precious Kitten that day. She produced a slashing move to pull on level terms then simply out gamed a horse who was extremely difficult to beat last year. Vacare has only run a mile twice but both were very good races. She is working well for a return, perhaps the Cash Call Mile is her first target. It would not shock me to see her do well, even against the boys.

Creachadoir - Europe’s best hope at moment for this race. Oddly enough a European has not won the Mile since it was run at Santa Anita. Creachadoir is not brilliant but he definitely good enough to run with all the horses above. He’s one of those solid, adapt to anything, type horses. American racing would suit him very well.

Rio de La Plata - By years end I suspect that this horse will be Europe’s chief challenger for the Mile. Ramonti and Henrythenavigator are more likely to contest a race like the Classic, I’d be shocked if either ended up in this race. Rio de la Plata still has maturing to do, he’s a little shy of the requisite level of form to win a race like the BC Mile but he’s just had one start since a very good juvenile campaign. What I like is his build and quickness. It’s not as much of an asset in Europe where powerful horses can dominate the straight uphill miles. In America quickness like his can leave his rivals gasping for breath in the blink of an eye. I think you’ll see him campaigned more in France because those courses suit him better. It’s no coincidence that primarily French campaigned milers have outperformed British ones by a good margin.

Tariq - Tariq is a horse I always wanted to see stepped up to a mile last year. In fact I liked him for the BC Mile last year but his connections didn’t go that route. He tried 8f last time out and ran a good, traffic impeded, third behind Creachadoir. He loves to swoop from the back so he’s always vulnerable to traffic problems but I expect we’ll see him in most of the big races for milers in Europe so if he’s good enough he won’t be a secret and if he’s not we’ll see it clearly.

Phoenix Tower - Another horse who recently lost to Creachadoir in the G-1 Lockinge but he can readily forgiven. It was just his 5th career start and his first try in G-1 company. He ran a great second and it was a bit of a shame to see him suffer his first career loss. He may not stay at a mile, possibly preferring 10f but if his connections (Juddmonte Farms and Henry Cecil by the way) decide to make him a miler he should be tough.

Weekend Overview: The Shoemaker Mile lived up to it’s billing as a top class clash of Turf milers. Daytona should be applauded for the fantastic run he’s on. It was nice to see Precious Kitten get back on track. Some feared that she may have lost a step but the Jackson’s decision to purchase her and keep her in training looks like a good one. Divine Park might not have been the best horse in the Met Mile but he continues to give the impression that he might be the best middle distance older horse out there at the moment.

Performance of the Week: I don’t often give this to a losing horse but Commentator deserves the plaudits this week. All his career he has been a horse who is brilliantly fast but was easily done in by rabbits. He’d fold the tent whenever he had to face other legitimate speed. But on Monday he decided that was enough of that. Commentator did eventually get passed by Divine Park but he never gave an inch despite being pushed hard by First Defence. He ran the best race I saw all weekend.

Race of the Week: Watch the Dallas Turf Cup by clicking on the Race of the Week subject. It really is hard to see who won the race with the naked eye. Storm Military is unlucky not to be the winner but take nothing away from Church Service who absolutely came and got him. It was a fantastic stretch run. Red Rock Creek made some eye catching progress of his own despite having traffic problems. For pure entertainment value I think this was easily the best race of the weekend.

Flop of the Weekend: I don’t want to be too harsh on Dream Rush since she was coming into the Vagrancy off a long layoff but her loss seems almost inexcusable. Perhaps the blame rests with Eibar Coa who made a hash of more than one assignment this weekend. Dream Rush blew the competition away for the first 5 1/2f but you get the feeling that Coa thought she was untouchable and he would show off a bit. There was no real reason for the blazing fractions or even to ask her for her best a long way out. She had the race by the throat but she was pressed too hard by her pilot and seemed to hit a wall in the final furlong. Coa was likely not a popular man with the connections after this one. He could also scarcely run to the Tagg barn for solace after he guided Tale of Ekati through a 6f work in 1:18.97. A good 6 seconds slower than what the trainer had asked for. Ouch.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The Turf Female division has finally sprung to life. The best Turf distance filly in the east is surely Mauralakana. She was extremely impressive in the Sheepshead Bay and that victory was enough to take her to the top of the division. Costume forfeited a chance to make her presence felt in the division when she failed to get on track in the Ouija Board Distaff. Nashoba’s Key and Wait A While have still to throw their full weight around but Precious Kitten got off the mark in the Gamely and looks set to have another strong year. Interesting times ahead for the Turf Female division.

Tip O’the Cap: Aiden O’Brien gets the nod this week for sweeping the Irish Classics as well as taking the Tattersalls Gold Cup. All three G-1 races at the Curragh this weekend went back to Ballydoyle. When his stable is fit they seem to sweep every race they contest. He sometimes comes in for criticism for developing horses too quickly but it often gets forgotten that this man can simply train any horse you give him. From precocious juveniles to Yeats the 7yo champion stayer to Istabraq the phenomenal jump racer.

KC Handicapping: Daytona is a win machine. It’s a shame that I repeatedly go against him. Ever A Friend ran a good race but Hyperbaric ran like a horse who needs to grow up. Thousand Words ran like a horse who needs to give up.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 1(2)-0-0-1 (-$4.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 527(268)-96-91-77 (-$102.20 -9.69% ROI)

Shoemaker Mile Stakes
I’m extremely excited to see how this race turns out. Turf milers have always been a favorite of mine and this clash is basically only missing Kip Deville. It could end up being a mini preview of the Breeders’ Cup Mile. I think that Hyperbaric, Ever A Friend and Thousand Words could all be champion class milers but this race will be the acid test. Ever A Friend was colossal in the Kilroe and if he returns to that form here it could be another open lengths triumph for the late developing son of Crafty Friend. He looks like he’s in sharp form but the 9/5 price is not that enticing. He’s a horse I’d rather watch and hope to play down the line rather than take short odds here. The one downside on him is that his last race more or less came out of the blue so despite the layoff (to avoid a potential bounce) there is always the risk that the Kilroe was not his real form. Hyperbaric is a horse I’m truly excited about. He also ran a best lifetime effort last time when losing the Arcadia but he is an undeveloped horse in expert hands. If he runs well here he may prove to be the next good thing in this division. I think the price is square on him and this is his chance to shine. I expect a huge effort. Because of the pace with Get Funky and Mast Track I’m not as high on Daytona. He’s good but I think the true milers will get to him. Pace is also something that might play into the hands of Thousand Words. I think he represents excellent value coming into the race off some poor performances on different surfaces. We now know he isn’t as good on those tracks but he is still a formidable horse on the grass and the pace should set up well for him. I expect him to be blasting past most of the field in the lane. Whether he gets there or not is a tight call.

Hyperbaric
Thousand Words

Some people are looking for a foothold, anything they can cling to that will give them confidence to go against Big Brown. Some are choosing to rely on the precocious brilliance of Casino Drive and the spectacular record of his dam in the Belmont. Others point to the fact that his Preakness was not a fast race at all and that it could be a sign of mortality.

It is the latter point that I wish to address here. There are many things to discuss about Beyer numbers that go well beyond the actual figure given. Big Brown has hardly ridden at all and seemed to just run for a few steps before wrapping it up against and coasting home. It was hardly more than a workout. But assume for a moment that the 100 Beyer Speed Figure given to Big Brown in the Preakness is an accurate reflection of the speed he showed that day. Would it be a negative sign?

I decided to take a look at all the horses in the Belmont who came into the race off of a career high Beyer earned in a Triple Crown race. Many horses come into the TC off career highs but in most cases they are horses trying to prove they belong. Horses who have already run in the TC have often shown the ability to run well, the big question is whether or not they’re in good form. I think most would agree that this describes Big Brown well, he does not need to prove anything beyond the fact that he is able to get back to his lifetime best form.

I only have complete Belmont data from 2000 to the present but here are the figures.

New Career High in Last Race (TC races only) prior to the Belmont: 18-2-5-1

Such horses went a paltry 2 for 18 in 8 runnings. Point Given and Afleet Alex were the two who won the Belmont coming off a career high earned in another TC race. The record may look good to some but 6 of these 18 horses were favored and just 4 of them were more than 10/1. The public backs horses who earned career tops in TC races last out. Virtually all of them aside from Point Given regressed in the Belmont Beyer wise even if they ran a good race.

On the flip side consider the horses who came to the Belmont directly out of a TC race but did run a career top Beyer. Their cumulative record is 20-3-3-2. It looks pretty much equal to the statistic above but you have to consider that only 10 of these horses were less than 10/1 in the Belmont. Horses like Commendable, Birdstone, Medaglia D’Oro and Andromeda’s Hero all offered huge value. Many more of the 20 horses were hopeless longshots like Scrimshaw.

I excluded Jazil from both statistics because he made an equal career high in the Kentucky Derby which was his last race prior to the Belmont. You could likely make a case for him being added to either stat.

In any event the stats definitely suggest that a regression last time out in a TC race is certainly not a negative. If anything it creates a bit of value. Not that I think Big Brown will really be “value” but statistically speaking his lower number in the Preakness is not worrisome in the least. You may also consider using a horse like Macho Again and Tale of Ekati instead of Denis of Cork and Icabad Crane for value purposes. Anak Nakal made an equal career high in the Derby.

I suppose I’m suffering from something resembling writers block because it’s three days past the Preakness, we have a possible Triple Crown winner and I’m stuck for good topics to write about.

I think for me personally the Kentucky Derby is more intriguing than the Triple Crown and the Breeders’ Cup trumps them both. I am more about anticipation than aftermath and the Triple Crown is a lot of aftermath. There is some anticipation but less so this year. Maybe it’s because it seems inevitable that Big Brown will win the Triple Crown.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s not that I’m not enjoying Big Brown’s unbelievable form. I am, in fact I think we’re witnessing greatness in real time, but it’s kind of like if your team is up three games to none in a best of seven series. It now seems only academic that they’ll close the deal, you don’t have the same sense of nervous excitement or apprehension over every face off and power play.

Big Brown is doing what everyone always believed was possible. When a good horse comes along in the midst of a poor crop he should dominate them. There is no real mystery or intrigue about that.

The Belmont will be billed as a match race between Big Brown and Casino Drive but realistically Big Brown is a far better horse. Casino Drive has much to prove and despite his royal bloodlines he still has to show it on the track. From what I’ve seen of both of them Big Brown should handle him easily.

There has been some discussion about whether or not Big Brown is “worthy” of a Triple Crown. My contention is that there is no such thing as being worthy or not. A horse is either a Triple Crown winner or they aren’t. The whole notion of worthiness is based on the feeling that whoever wins the Triple Crown ought to be a champion of champions. A horse for the ages, but realistically other than in the 70’s a Triple Crown winner was not necessarily one of those. Big Brown actually could be a champion of champions but he doesn’t have to be in order to win the Triple Crown.

Big Brown will win the Triple Crown if he is better than all the horses he faces in the Belmont because he has already proven to be too good for the competition in the Derby and Preakness. It really is that simple.

People need to get over their pre-conceived notions and self appointed standards of all the things a Triple Crown winner should be. It is what it is.

I’m also not one of the boo-birds that expects him to be retired right after the Belmont win or lose (but especially if he wins). That is simply baseless and overly cynical. I don’t understand the need to think the worst of people or be the first to predict an unfortunate happening. It may end up being correct but it won’t be because of his owners lack of sportsmanship it will be because he gets injured while prepping for a fall campaign. He is definitely getting most of the summer off and his ideal fall campaign will likely be the Travers, Woodward and BC Classic. If any injury prevents him from making the Classic in top shape he will be retired.

Again it’s pretty simple and logical. There is no master Machiavellian plan to screw over race fans.

Weekend Overview: Big Brown won as he should and it’s on to Belmont. I think the race went exactly to script. It was a weak bunch against him and he didn’t have to run very hard to dispose of them. This paid workout sets him up perfectly for his next task. It’ll be exciting to see if he can manage it. Good old Student Council once again showed that in races near or at 10f he is still not to be overlooked.

Performance of the Week: All eyes were on the Preakness but the best performance definitely came in the Dixie Handicap. He went to the back of the field and sat behind a very slow pace. I suppose the strategy was to track the favorite Shakis but entering the far turn Castellano must have realized that he had enough horse to take on anyone. He sliced his way through the pack on the turn and got up to the leaders. This is usually when horses who have made a big move level off a bit but he had another gear and put another 7 lengths between himself and the pack. It was a huge performance. Not only was it the most visually impressive performance on the grass it also received the highest Turf Beyer Speed Figure (107) this year. Pays To Dream was a decent 3yo. He won his first three starts in state bred company before stepping up against the likes of Nobiz Like Showbiz. He was not disgraced when facing those horses and David Donk was likely hoping to have a decent year with him. He ran evenly without showing much in his 2008 debut so it really was hard to see this one coming. I’m not sure if he could ever repeat this level of performance but if he can he is a legitimate threat, even to Einstein.

Race of the Week: I was personally quite intrigued by the Hirsch Jacobs where Lantana Mob ran down Silver Edition in the last few jumps. The 3yo’s outran their older counterparts who ran a few races earlier. Force Freeze very much has a “Fabulous Strike” look to him but he hasn’t learned how to control his speed yet. Lantana Mob seems to be the consummate professional. He just keeps coming. I feel for Silver Edition who has had a very rough campaign. He just about got the job done after sitting a textbook trip but Lantana Mob would not be denied.

Flop of the Weekend: I think Shakis underachieved more than any other big horse this weekend. It’s true that Pays To Dream ran out of this world and no one was likely to beat him but Shakis failed to mount a real rally at all and finished 5th beaten almost 10 lengths. That is a significant margin for a turf race. I think he’s lost a step.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Just like in his race Big Brown is running away atop the TCR standings. His score of 280.68 already guarantees him a permanent spot in the top 10 all year long without even running again. If he wins the Belmont he will likely be unreachable. We have never had a year where two horses have broken 400.00 and a Triple Crown victory for Big Brown would send him over that threshold making him a virtual lock for the title even at this early stage in the year. Curlin has hardly had a chance to really do anything, it may be too late by the time he conjures a response.

Tip O’the Cap: After the nightmare of the Derby aftermath one could excuse Jones and Saez from wanting to run another filly on a day when the worlds eyes are on them but they teamed up to capture the Allaire Dupont Distaff with Buy The Barrel. Jones is going through a real purple patch with his fillies lately. Buy The Barrel has now won 3 stakes races this year and might be a horse who could step up against the heavyweights. For Jones and Saez it was likely a monkey off their back of sorts. Winning the race just before the Preakness with a filly was a nice touch for all the PETA protesters.

KC Handicapping: It has now been a very long time since I’ve had a winning week. Something like 8 or 9 weeks long. I’ve given out some live value horses but the chips just haven’t fallen for me. Speed was having difficulty in all the races so that played against Sherine. It was a mistake to include Grasshopper I suspected he was vulnerable but still used him.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 5(3)-1-0-2 (-$7.60 -76.00% ROI)
Overall record: 526(266)-96-91-76 (-$98.20 -9.33% ROI)

Pimlico Special Handicap
Not a race that screams G-1 quality but certainly a race that seems to offer a chance to make some money. I think the race is wide open and both AP Arrow and Grasshopper could be slightly vulnerable. AP Arrow is coming back from Dubai and shows just two 4f works since being back I won’t use him at this price although he is very capable. Grasshopper is the horse to beat but it’s hard to ignore how he’s managed to get beat in 3 of his last 4 races. Certainly Neil Howard would have expected better out of him. Hey is a key for the exotics though and if his odds actually are 3/1 he’s worth a bet. The horse I like instead of him is Sir Whimsey. I think he’s turned a corner this year and I expect a good tactical ride from Prado behind the pace setup. He’s a tough horse who should relish the return to dirt. He may be a bit overlooked here. The pace should be strong with Temporary Saint and Gottcha Gold. I think both horses could win if either of them wasn’t there but together neither of them is likely to wire the field. It would not shock me to see Gottcha Gold hang around for third though.

Sir Whimsey
Grasshopper

Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
Bsharpsonata is an admirable filly and once again she has a great chance of adding to her impressive record but I think she’s a bit vulnerable. She’s had a hard spring already and now she’s coming back at 9f and relatively short rest. 9f always promised to be a bit of a stamina test for her and judging by the way she faded in the Oaks it may still prove to be a bit much for her right now. I know she was not perfectly suited to the pace scenario in the Oaks and she’ll get a better setup this time but there is still enough doubt here for me to oppose her. She was campaigned all spring to be in top form for the Oaks. She faded in the final furlong there and now comes back in two week and tries to do the same. I don’t understand the fascination with Highest Class, maybe it’s her connections but when I look at her races on video and on paper I see a plodder who has never really run a fast race. I much prefer the improving Sherine. There are a few speed horses in this race but the others (Maren’s Meadow and One Step Ahead) look like chaff that should be through in the first half. Sherine looks like a filly of genuine quality. She was nearly the equal of stablemate Zee Zee on the grass and has never had any difficulty running routes on the dirt. She is coupled with Pious Ashley who doesn’t seem to stand much chance. I expect her to stalk the pace but assume command after a half mile. She should be tough to catch, she’s a genuine filly and she has been well prepared for this one.

Sherine

Preakness Stakes
I’m not sure if many people will love this race as a chance to bet the win pool. It looks awfully straightforward with Big Brown towering over the rest. But because of his dominance there might be quite an opportunity in the exotics. We can all see that if Big Brown stays on his feet his chances of losing are small at best but we can also all remember a time when a horse who seemed like a lock had an unfortunate circumstance. Missing the break, slipped saddle, broken reign or even some bad traffic could all concievably see Big Brown beaten. There are only three horses I’d use with him and just one against him to hedge the unthinkable. Icabad Crane is his chief rival in my estimation. Beyer Speed figures claim that he and Big Brown are worlds apart and perhaps they are but Icabad Crane can definitely beat all the rest so automatically that makes me consider using him as a hedge. The Motion trainee got off to a slow start in NY bred races but he looked visually impressive even if the speed figures didn’t jump off the page. He tried stakes company next but perhaps found that Polytrack was not really to his liking. He ran an ok third but bounced back in fine style with a very impressive win in the Tesio. I love way this horse can make several moves and doesn’t shy away from any gaps. His ability to rate and accelerate is ideal the only question mark is how fast he can go when in full flight. He outdueled Mint Lane last time when that one set a slow pace. Mint Lane came back to set a fast pace and still hang on for second in the Peter Pan. I fully expect Icabad Crane to run second. Giant Moon is a horse I’d use underneath. He looked like a good prospect until the slop of the Gotham. The Wood was also not a bad race for him. He’s fresh and working well, I think he’ll run well. Racecar Rhapsody is another horse I would use underneath. He’s got a good closing style and despite 3 4th place finishes in a row I think he’s coming up to his best race. Big Brown has no excuse to lose this race but I may play a flier on Icabad Crane and one small exacta without Big Brown using Icabad Crane, Giant Moon and Racecar Rhapsody just in case.Though most bets will center around the big favorite. Horse racing can be a funny game in that you never can be sure how a race will play out.

Big Brown
Icabad Crane

Once again these are just short form ideas that I would love to be able to present to the racing authorities. Of course right now we know there is no such authority with the power to effect any change but one can dream. (Part 1, Part 2)

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Daily Irregularities

Standardize Workout Terminology – Why is a “breezing” workout on one coast a “handily” workout on the other coast?

Publish Penetrometer Readings For Turf Conditions - Why do we use the track condition labels of firm, good, soft etc…when we have penetrometers that give a numerical reading of firmness?

Set A Standard Release Time For All Entries and Morning Lines - Why are the morning line odds not released at the same time for every track? Santa Anita is notoriously slow while Keeneland is generally a full day ahead of every other track.
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Marketing

Change the Marketing Focus
The message I would want to send to the general public is that the racetrack can simply be a great place to spend a day or evening. Make it luxurious, exclusive, a place where the high life is pandered to. You don’t need to try and sell gambling. Racing is one of the most exciting sports there is. People won’t be at a racetrack too long before they start wanting to pick a horse in each race. I think if you place an emphasis on making racetracks more visitor friendly, more accommodating, more comfortable and more luxurious you make it easier to market. Also limit the amount of the product available. The most successful tracks are the ones that run short meets. Get rid of most mid-week racing and create more boutique meets. Don’t worry too much about selling the sport it’s actually the best thing we have going for us. It sells itself, what you need to sell is the experience of a day at the races.

Secure Regular Television Deal That Gives Weekly Exposure – With a more logical racing calendar in place it would be possible to card many of the graded stakes during a set time every week. The NFL has branded Sunday afternoon as its TV time slot. Racing could try to brand Saturday afternoon or whatever time slot they feel gives them the best chance. In Canada there is a cable station (The Score) that already carries Woodbine racing on Wednesday evenings and Sunday afternoons. The Score is hardly a huge station but it is part of all basic cable packages. Also their content is just Woodbine, it would be a much better show with Graded Stakes from all over the country.

Create New Jockey Silks - Racing could use some sell able merchandise aside from hats and pins. I know the tradition of silks is a longstanding one but if we changed them to something that the general public could wear we have another item to market. I personally would go with a soccer jersey type shirt. It still has the glossy look of silks, it’s still light but people on the street can and do wear them. Even people who aren’t interested in soccer. To make this truly fly you would likely need to look at working with an existing sporting goods manufacturer like Reebok, Diadora or Puma. Also perhaps hire some freelance designers to help owners come up with suitable or marketable designs. Not all of the new “silks” would have marketability. Obviously only those stables who have big name horses would have any draw. Of course another alternative is to keep the racing silks the same and just create soccer jersey type silks for consumer purchase.

Place An Emphasis On Fantasy Games – Fantasy Games are huge and they draw a ton of interest for other sports. Embrace that, have fantasy focus shows on TVG, get Yahoo to run a Horse Racing Fantasy game on its website. Make the prizes significant initially in order to create interest.
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Breeding

Impose A Levy On Stallion Fees For Every Book Above 40 – Most of these ideas cost money and this would be one place that we’d get it. Breeders would not be prevented from booking their stallion to more than 40 mares but they would have to pay a percentage of those fees to the Commissioners office. Sort of like what the Yankees and Red Sox do for the rest of baseball. They have the option to spend more but there is an equalization that benefits the rest of the league. Breeders make most of the money these days. Some of that money needs to find its way back into racing.
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Here is a summary of most of my main ideas for reform.

Fewer Racing Dates
Winter Break
Fewer Tracks
More Boutique Meets
Logical Stakes Schedule
Point Standings
Standard Drug Guidelines
Harsh and Enforced Penalties For Violaters
Improve Customer Service At Racetracks To Casino Standards
Free Race Replays and Past Performance Database
Increase Information Available To Handicappers
Removal of Irregularities
Market Racetracks As An Exclusive Place To Be
Brand A Specific Time That Racing Can Be Broadcast On Television
Levy On Stallion Books Over 40

Yearly meetings For The Commissioner With Racing Officials From Around The World – There are good ideas all over this globe: Europe, Dubai, Japan, Hong Kong and Australia all run successful race meets. During the newly initiated off-season it would be good for the commissioner and staff to visit those places and continually glean the best and brightest ideas and technology.

For those just joining us you can read Part 1 and get filled in on the specifics but basically this post is a collection of suggested reforms I would love to be able to present to a commissioner of racing someday.
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Year End Awards

Implement Point Standings - This is a bit of a pet project of mine as you could likely tell from the standings listed on the sidebar. I think this would mesh beautifully with a logical structured stakes schedule. Point Standings are essentially for the fans. Some fans parse through all the box scores to get a feeling for who is having the best season to date but the vast majority who want a quick synopsis look at the standings. In racing it’s not as simple as wins and losses but standings are still a great idea and much needed to help encourage interest from marginal fans. Racing is a tough sport to follow and right now there is no concise place you can go to get a feeling for who the top horses are overall and in each division. The best you’ll find are polls and opinions on who is the best. I’ve spent a good deal of time developing a point system that works extremely well in my opinion but I’d just be happy to see any system implemented. A point system is not supposed to be predictive nor does it even assess talent levels. All it does is quantify accomplishments. Sort of like what a Speed Figure does for an individual race. it attempts to take all the factors and boil the performance down to one number. A point system takes all a horses starts and gives you a measurement of what they have accomplished. Here is another benefit of having a point system.

It encourages horses to run more and in higher quality races - You get more points for doing well in higher grade races. Everyone wants our stars to run more, if we link the point standings to year end awards (explored more in the next point) we virtually force the best horses to compete more in order to earn the recognition they desire.

Standardize Procedure For Oversubscribed Fields – Why is the Derby decided based on graded stakes earnings while the Breeders Cup uses Win and You’re In as well as a combination of point systems and a panel of judges? Come up with the best idea for reducing oversubscribed fields and use it for every case where it is needed. My thought is that a standardized point system like the TCR is the best way to decide which horses have earned the right to compete.

Reformat Year End Awards – The Eclipse Awards need to be reformatted and redefined. The TCR Awards would be the basic model I would like to see implemented with one slight change. Instead of having fan voters industry professionals would vote. Much like the Cartier Awards in Europe which are quickly becoming the most important year end awards on a continent where the Experimental Free Handicap system was entrenched as the authoritative method of deciding champions.
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Drug Policies And Rule Enforcement

Nationwide Standard Drug Policy - My personal feeling is that all race day medications should be banned just as they are in other nations but at the very least racing must have a nationwide standard drug policy. What is illegal in Kentucky has to be illegal in New York. Everyone needs to get on the same page at every level of the game. Other nations ban race day medications so I’m not sure why it’s a necessity for American horses but at the very least we need to have uniform nationwide standards and thresholds.

Ban On Steroids - There is already a major push in this direction and I support it fully. Racing needs to rid itself of anabolic steroids. Horses should not be subjected to this kind of treatment and I think steroids lead to injuries in both horses and humans.

Harsh Penalties With Strict Enforcement For Violators - Those caught violating drug policies need to be kicked out of the game. Perhaps just year long suspensions for first time offenders but most likely it will take a few lifetime bans before trainers get the message that cheating is not worth the risk. There is no sense having drug policies but handing out Mickey Mouse suspensions to those who violate the rules.

Create A Central Governing Body Of Stewards - Much like referees or umpires in other sports the stewards would all be hired, trained and assigned by a central governing body. That way there would be continuity among their decisions regarding disqualifications and suspensions and also an accountability to an authority higher than themselves. Namely, the commissioner’s office.
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Wagering And Customer Service

All Advance Deposit Wagering Companies Access To Every Track Signal - It is absolutely ridiculous that one requires an account with several different ADW’s just to play all the mainstream tracks. You think Pro-Line would ever be restricted to just NFC games? Petty squabbles like this discredit racing and alienate the lifeblood of the industry: The bettors.

Commission New Tote System - In the computer age we live in you cannot tell me that the tote system we use at racetracks all over the country is the best possible system. Odds cannot be changing up to a half mile into the race. It undermines the credibility of racing itself and is simply unnecessary.

Make Racetracks More Appealing Places To Be – Even if that means shutting down portions of the grandstand. Casino’s offer the lap of luxury, even to the $10 gamblers. Racing gamblers by comparison are pretty well ignored. Start taking surveys of what gamblers want and start doing it. Casino’s have figured the industry out and racing has not. What Casino’s want most of all is your money and what the patrons want most of all is respect. Respect in the mind of the gambler can be earned by making money but casino’s can make patrons feel respected even if they lose money. They do this by treating them like kings. The more money you’re willing to lose at a Casino the more respect you get shown. Imagine that at a racetrack. I think it might be a gem of an idea to hire some Casino executives to oversee the area of customer service.

Increase Information Provided To Handicappers – This would include installing Trakus at every race track as well as weighing every horse that goes to post. Requiring every surgery to be reported and many other ideas. Ideally there would be a period where handicappers could submit ideas and requests and we could implement whatever is feasible. There are some tracks that do these things already, we just need to make it standard and give handicappers as much information as they could possibly want.

Make Race Replays Free – In fact I just might just suggest hiring the web designers who created the website for the Hong Kong Jockey Club. Every race chart complete with video race replays as well as one click access to every horses past performances. Not to mention labelled still pictures of the race at the points of call and the ability to search the charts for years back not just the last week. Race replays for most tracks are free right now but the problem with viewing them is typical of the racing industry. In order to see CDSN races you have to go to their website. Calracing has a slew of tracks but can’t access replays from CDSN, Monmouth and others. The powers involved in racing currently simply have a very difficult time sharing the sandbox even with something as simple as this.

Create A Free Past Performance Database – Not with DRF past performances but more simplistic ones like those available for Hong Kong racing or at the Racing Post. Handicappers would have to pay for detailed DRF type information but the average fan could look up the accomplishments of any horse on demand. You can do it with every other sport for free.