Spring has officially arrived, the Keeneland Spring Meet marks the official season kickoff on my personal calender. 16 days of top quality racing, including the first look at some 2yo’s at America’s most progressive and well run racetrack.

Stories of hard times buffet the racing world on all sides but not at Keeneland. It is one track that is absolutely thriving. They draw large crowds, attract good handle and best of all, they care about improving themselves each and every year. The move to make the main track a Polytrack surface was ridiculed by many and some bettors might stay away but the horsemen sure don’t.

Keeneland is one of only two racetracks with the Trakus system that times each horse individually and instantly calculates ground loss. They are also the only track using HD cameras to film the races.

As a fan you simply have to love Keeneland, even if you’ve never had the opportunity to go there. Keeneland offers more goodies than any other racetrack. Here is just a small sample of what they make available.

Free Live Video - The only major racetrack that offers this to fans without an online betting account.

Free Race Replays - If you can’t catch the action live you can just watch the replays. They’re usually available as soon as 5 minutes after the race concludes.

Classic Racing Videos - This is new this year. From April 1st to April 25th Keeneland will show old television broadcasts of past great races run at Keeneland. Tune in at 7pm EST and keep an eye on the broadcast schedule to make sure you don’t miss some of your old favorites.

Free Handicapping Contest - $3,000 to the winner of this contest that requires you to simply pick one horse in each race (starting at race 7 each day) The highest bankroll at the end of the meet gets the money.

Although Polytrack has made handicapping a bit more difficult for me personally I still love to play public handicapper whenever Keeneland is open. You can follow my picks and progress on the sidebar at Kennedy’s Corridor which will be updated daily. Also if you click on the Keeneland Spring Meet header you be able to see all my selections and a breakdown of my record. If nothing else it’ll be an excellent source of horses to eliminate from consideration.

Feel free also to join the TBC forum members in a little Keeneland handicapping contest of our own. All available free BRISnet past performances for Keeneland will be linked here.

1. Big Brown–only moves up one spot, as his Florida Derby was pretty much the same as his allowance race.  People comparing him to Bellamy Road are off base.  This isn’t a horse who suddenly jumped up, he received a 104 Beyer for his allowance win and a 106 for the Florida Derby.  It’s a very good sign to see that number improve as the distance stretches out, and it’s not that surprising if you are not tunnel visioned on his sire and consider the stamina of his damsire, Nureyev.  Also, unlike both Curlin and Bellamy Road, Big Brown gets five weeks rest and was already less likely to bounce since he didn’t actually run a new top, he just repeated an effort.   He’s fit, he’s fast, the main mark is those feet.  He already has gone the distance of 10f if you paid attention to the Florida Derby gallop out.

2. Pyro–I love his finishing kick, but he may have to get it in gear a bit earlier if he expects to catch a horse like Big Brown, who has shown he can carry his speed even when setting blistering fractions.  Since Big Brown will probably be just off the lead in the Derby, and Pyro far back, the match up favors Big Brown style wise and history wise as the winner of the Derby is usually ahead at the eighth pole, unless you are Giacomo.  So far this year, he simply hasn’t been fast enough to beat Big Brown, but his final prep could change that.

3. Denis of Cork–I like his pedigree for going 10f, but he will have to go faster to win the Derby.  The Florida Derby has finally raised the bar.

4. Colonel John–same boat as above, nice pedigree for going a distance, but will have to run faster if Big Brown stays healthy.

5. El Gato Malo–iffy pedigree for 10f, so he is one to watch closely going 9f and seeing how he finishes and gallops out past the wire.

6. War Pass–worked well this past week, but must return to BC Juvy form in the Wood to show he hasn’t lost his edge.  He may go into the Derby with his BC Juvy as his highest Beyer, usually not a good sign, but it worked for Street Sense last year.

7. Smooth Air–the Florida Derby was a decent effort from him and overlooked in all the Big Brown talk.   He was trained to perfection and took another step forward despite being no match for Big Brown, but he did beat Tomcito by an even larger margin.

8. Visionaire–his 98 Beyer last out looks pretty good compared to many here, but he was no match for Pyro the race before that.

9. Court Vision–drops down a bit due to dismal effort from Elysium Fields, who beat him last out.  Excuse or not, it doesn’t flatter him.

10. Cool Coal Man–same story for his, not flattered by Elysium Field’s was out in the Florida Derby, making me believe that my original belief that the entire Fountain of Youth field that came home so slowly are more pretenders than contenders.

11. Tomcito–a decent US debut, coming from last to get third, but still was trounced by the top two and was just passing tired horses.  Might be better suited to the Belmont.

12. Big Truck, Yankee Bravo (tie)–both close well but will have to run faster. 

dropped off: Fierce Wind, Georgie Boy

Three of the “Big Six” Kentucky Derby Prep races are set to run this weekend. Much of our final assessment of the Derby contenders will be based on their last prep. In my mind the last prep is worth about 60% of my total consideration. Not sure how many have sat down to think about it in those terms but most likely you feel roughly the same about it’s importance.

Fitness is a key factor and I think there are two definite angles to fitness. The first is whether or not the horse is physically healthy. There is no statistic to back this angle but it stands to reason that a horse needs to be physically healthy in order to run their best on Derby day. But another aspect of fitness is how well the horses body has been prepared to handle the distance. A horse could be bred to run two miles but if he’s not been working out he won’t get the distance. I have run 5 miles in the past so certainly I’m capable of doing it, but I have every confidence that if I stepped away from the keyboard right now and tried to run 5 miles I’d fade significantly. It’s not because I can’t run 5 miles it’s because I’m not fit enough to do it right now. Same with horses, some people get sucked into the notion that if a horse is bred for the distance and is in good form they’ll handle 10f. That is not always true.

Big Brown has already thrown down the gauntlet with a masterful performance in the Florida Derby. In terms of a final prep there was nothing to fault. But I do some doubts about his fitness, in this case I actually doubt both aspects of his fitness. It’s well known that he’s got foot issues so that may or may not be a factor but I also wonder if he is fit enough to go 10f. Traditionally horses have needed at least two preps around two turns to be fit enough. Those who failed to have a pair of preps around two turns have gone 17-0-0-0 in the Derby since 1996. Bellamy Road chief among them. Perhaps Big Brown could build his fitness level through long quick works like what Smooth Air had prior to the Florida Derby but for now that is a real question mark in my mind.

Here are some other quick facts you may want to keep in mind though when looking at the preps this weekend, especially when you consider the various horses who fail to win the preps.

Horses whose finish position was worse than position at the 1/8th pole in either final preps have not fared very well in the Derby. They went 60-1-4-3 with Silver Charm in 1997 the last and only winner to have defied this angle. Basically you don’t want your horse getting passed in the last 1/8th. This is often an indication of a horses fitness because if they’re unable to sustain a run or finish strongly going 9f they’ll have a very tough time doing so at 10f. Incidentally the aberration to this statistic, Silver Charm, was passed in the stretch of the Santa Anita Derby by Free House but he essentially lost a head bob during a stretch duel. Free House did not blast past him and Silver Charm was not giving up.

Also stay away from horses who did not either win or finish within 3 lengths of the winner in their last prep. There are two aspects at work here, firstly you don’t want a horse who has just run a dull race but also you don’t want one that was outclassed. Many Derby winners did lose their final prep but none of them were beaten a distance. In fact horses who failed to either win or finish within 3 lengths of the winner in their final prep went 83-0-4-1 in the Derby

If you’re looking for a more contrarian angle you may want to play against horses who ran off and won by a huge margin in their last race. Horses that won their last prep by 5 lengths or more
went a surprising 16-1-0-2. War Emblem is the exception. It’s not a stat I’d put the mortgage on and I do believe there are better ways to predict bounces off of big efforts but it is interesting that the most impressive runaway winners in prep races almost always failed to duplicate that effort in the Derby.

Derby Top 10 - April 1st

1. Pyro (1)
2. Denis Of Cork (2)
3. Cool Coal Man (3)
4. Colonel John (4)
5. Big Brown (new)
6. Smooth Air (new)
7. El Gato Malo (7)
8. Court Vision (8)
9. War Pass (9)
10. Eight Belles (10)

It is now the beginning of April. For fans of the Derby Trail April is the most exciting month. May is when it all culminates but April is when the fever reaches it’s zenith, very often the anticipation of an event is a greater source of joy and excitement than the actual event. For many people that will be true of the Derby, depending on who wins. Everyone wants to see a “champion” win the race. It’s a bit of a self fulfilling prophesy because the Derby winner is automatically given exalted status but fans truly want to see greatness portrayed in what is still considered by some to be the greatest race in the world. That is why we have all sat on the edge of our seats this spring waiting to be wowed and amazed. We’re waiting for something to believe in. For many people the Florida Derby was the coming of the Messiah. At long last we had a horse run a triple digit Beyer speed figure in a prep race. What’s more he did it in his third lifetime start from a post position that seemed to be the kiss of death. Big Brown has become the sole or joint favorite with Pyro almost overnight. There is no question that he ran the best race by any three year old to date. But now we have to deal with the question of how he’ll do in the Derby. As you can see by my top 10 list above Big Brown is ranked only 5th. does that mean I was not impressed by his Florida Derby? No, I was very impressed but it does mean that I have a few doubts about him repeating the feat in 5 weeks. The 3 career starts is not a big issue for me, I think he has the experience he needs from the races he’s run. He has already shown the requisite speed and class. His form is beyond repute and there are no holes to pick in his breeding. The two questions I have about him have to do with his fitness and his suitability to the specific challenges of the Derby. On the subject of his fitness it is no secret that this horse has been, and to some extent still is, battling some foot issues. You cannot afford to lose time for the next 5 weeks no matter how good you are. Empire Maker fans learned that lesson. The other issue related to his fitness that I have is in regards to his light prep schedule. He has just had one prep around two turns and I honestly feel that will be a significant factor. He does not have a solid base of stamina from the body of work he has put in. The other issue I have with him is his suitability based on his running style. A horse can wire the Derby but if War Pass enters the race it will become much harder. Can Big Brown win the Derby despite these disadvantages? Most definitely yes, but they do cause me to be more cautious and I’m giving a few others above him the benefit of the doubt until they run their last prep race. The top 5 horses on this list are really the only ones that I still give a winning chance to. The bottom 5 and the radar are more the horses with an outside chance to win but more realistically they have a chance to hit the board. The best of them at this stage is Smooth Air. He is emerging as a very solid and classy horse. Not really brilliant enough to win on paper but very often the Derby has gone to a horse who did not seem brilliant before hand. I love the way he has been handled and trained and although he is not really bred for 10f I think that in 5 weeks he will run the best race of his life. Stutts has done a fabulous job of building stamina into him and this horse always tries 100%. Big Brown is a much better horse but I consider Smooth Air more likely to run his best race on Derby Day than Big Brown, the only problem is that we know Big Browns best race is good enough to win while Smooth Air’s best race may just be for second. My Pal Charlie was also added to the radar on the back of his excellent works in preparation for the Arkansas Derby. He looks like he’s getting good at the right time and he’s worth keeping a close eye on. Elysium Fields and Tomcito were both dropped because of their performances in the Florida Derby. Tomcito simply was no where near good enough and Elysium Fields nearly got heatstroke. He might be a very good one later on but that does it for him and the Derby. Poor Georgie Boy has been dropped with the news of an injury that will keep him out of the Derby. I feel badly for the connections, he is a cool horse and the Derby would have been better with him in the race. These next two weeks will all but decide how the pre-Derby pundits summarize and rank the contenders. The last prep for any horse is, in my opinion, by far the most important race. Buckle up and enjoy the ride, it should be fun watching it all unfold.

On the radar: Visionaire, Atoned, Cowboy Cal, Big Truck, My Pal Charlie

Dropped: Elysium Fields (5), Georgie Boy (6), Tomcito