Much has been written about the Beyer Speed Figures of this years Triple Crown contenders. There is no question that on average the figures awarded to the prep winners have been, on average, the slowest on record.

Here is a comparison of the average Beyer Figures awarded for all the Derby prep races for the last 5 years.

2008 - 92
2007 - 94
2006 - 96
2005 - 94
2004 - 95

The Lexington is still to come but the average will remain at 92 unless the Lexington winner runs more than 110 or less than 78. Speed figures are not always a true indicator of quality but they are what they are and there is no denying that they’re slower than usual.

However I’m not going to get into a post about the crop being slow. I thought it would rather serve us well to ignore the specific figures for a moment and focus solely on the patterns of the figures.

Are some patterns superior? Are any Beyer patterns clear red flags? I have them split into 6 different patterns. “A” represents the highest speed figure in the horses last three races while “C” the lowest. I won’t insult your intelligence by explaining what “B” indicates. The patterns are listed with the most recent race first so an A/B/C pattern is a horse with 3 improving Beyer figures going into the Derby. Here is how the patterns have looked since 1996.

Beyer Pattern A/B/C: 75-3-7-5
Beyer Pattern A/C/B: 32-3-2-4
Beyer Pattern B/A/C: 40-4-2-2
Beyer Pattern B/C/A: 16-1-0-0
Beyer Pattern C/A/B: 23-0-1-1
Beyer Pattern C/B/A: 19-1-0-0

As you can see the majority of the winners came into the Derby with one of the first three patterns. The classic “three improving figures” pattern was easily the most common producing 35% of the Derby starters and yet it is not necessarily the pattern with the strongest results. Clearly A/C/B and B/A/C are rather strong patterns as well.

On the downside it seems clear from these pattern breakdowns that the two things you don’t want to see from your horse is their best figure (A) coming 3 starts back. You also don’t want to see their worst figure being earned in their final race. Horses with either factor working against them went 58-2-1-1. It clearly looks like the worst pattern subset to me. If you exclude 2yo races for those with just 2 starts as a 3yo the record of horses whose final Beyer was worse than their last two you get a cumulative record of 39-0-1-1. Not a real positive.

What does it mean for this year? Well, excluding the Lexington starters here is how the current Derby contenders fit into the patterns.

A/B/C - Big Brown, Court Vision, Tale Of Ekati
A/C/B - Adriano, Colonel John, Gayego, Smooth Air, Z Fortune, Eight Belles, Recapturetheglory, Monba
B/A/C - Denis of Cork
B/C/A - Bob Black Jack, War Pass, Cowboy Cal
C/A/B - Pyro, Visionaire, Cool Coal Man
C/B/A -

Make of that what you will. Remember no one statistic is an absolute. They are merely tools to help shape your view of the Derby. Very often the Derby winner will conform to the most pertinent statistics.

Looking for a way to impress your friends at a derby party? Or maybe you need a few winning angles to share with your friends.

Here are some simple and somewhat mindless ways to bet the Derby and stand a good chance of being profitable.

Bet every horse with a Dosage above 4.00 - Tradition and the Dosage creators say that only horses with a 4.00 or less can win but since 1996 you would have made great money by betting on the 23 non qualifiers. There were 3 winners in that group and your ROI would be a whopping 328.57%. This year that means backing horses like War Pass, Bob Black Jack, Gayego and Recapturetheglory.

Bet every horse who ran a 100+ Beyer as a Two Year Old - 27 qualifiers in the last 12 runnings and 5 winners including a bunch of recent ones like Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Street Sense. You would have made 52.96% by betting on all of them. War Pass and Pyro are the only ones this year who look likely to be in the Derby.

Bet every horse that has worked two bullets since their last prep race - Make sure that one of those bullets is their final Derby workout. Horses often signal top form with some fast moves in the morning. 13 horses horses qualified and 4 of them turned out to be winners. A massive 444.61% ROI would have been yours.

Bet on every horse trained by a Derby rookie trainer - Who says a conditioner needs experience to train a Derby winner? 4 of the last 5 winners have been trained by a conditioner who is bringing their first starter to the derby. A bet on all 32 of those rookie trained qualifiers in the last 5 years would have made you 141.56%. Also worth noting that along with the winners horses like Hard Spun, Closing Argument, Afleet Alex, Steppenwolfer and Imperialism were all trained by Derby rookies as well. This could mean horses like Smooth Air, Gayego, Adriano and Tomcito for this year.

If Trifecta’s are your thing and you have a big budget try boxing every horse who has achieved the average two turn stakes prep winning Beyer figure - It may sound complicated but it’s really not. Just glance through the PP’s and note the speed figures that each horse earned in a winning two turn stakes race in the current year. Average them, then eliminate the horses who did earn a figure around two turns that is as fast as the average. Box the rest of them in a trifecta. It may cost a fair bit but here are the year by year results over the last decade or so.

Year - Wagered (Returned)
1996 - $1,008 ($600.60)
1997 - $672 ($205.40)
1998 - $240 (—)
1999 - $3,432 ($5,866.20)
2000 - $1,440 ($435)
2001 - $1,008 (—)
2002 - $240 (—)
2003 - $420 ($664.80)
2004 - $1,008 ($987.60)
2005 - $2,640 ($133,134.80)
2006 - $1,980 (—)
2007 - $3,432 ($440)

You would have only made money in 3 of the 12 years but you would have cashed a ticket in 8 of those years. You also would have been a hero for 2005. Overall the system is not a high probability one but it does show a 712% return on investment. That’s $124,814.40 in real dollars. It’s a pretty expensive lottery ticket but it does show a high percentage hit rate. All you need to pray for is a bomb or two in the frame.

Derby Top 10 - April 15th

1. Colonel John (1)
2. Big Brown (4)
3. Smooth Air (5)
4. Eight Belles (6)
5. Z Fortune (new)
6. Atoned (7)
7. Court Vision (9)
8. Tomcito (10)
9. Pyro (2)
10. Monba (new)

The last weekend of major prep races sure threw a wrench in the mix. I, like most people, figured that Pyro would run well run even if he didn’t win, that this was just a formality to get him in shape for the Derby. It was anything but and now his connections are even admitting that he likely didn’t get much out of the race. The same has to go for Cool Coal Man and Big Truck, none of them ran a step. I am completely at peace with the notion that they didn’t handle the track but what worries me is the blown chance to build fitness and endurance. All three of those horses should bounce back to form once they get back on real dirt but we need them to improve their old form not simply run back to their previous 3yo top. Cool Coal Man and Big Truck have been dropped because of this. Pyro stays on the list only because a return to his best form would put him right in the hunt and I think he has more class than the others. It will be interesting to see how these horses work given that they likely got nothing out of the Blue Grass. Perhaps Asmussen should ring up Bernie Stutts and ask to work Pyro with Smooth Air. The trusty little Smooth Air worked another quick mile at Calder. Make no mistake, this will be one of the fittest horses in the Derby. He moves up to third nearly by default and while he does not exactly have a classic winners profile he is quickly becoming one of the most solid contenders and may well be the best value on Derby day. Smooth Air reminds me of a Funny Cide type of horse, I fully expect him to run a huge race at Churchill. Visionaire ran the best race of the established horses in the Blue Grass but I’m dropping him as well. He didn’t seem to handle the track too badly he just didn’t have enough kick to get near the leaders. His breeding is already slightly suspect and I this in my opinion was a pivotal race for him, he failed and so I don’t think of him as one of the top 10 Derby prospects. Monba returns to the list for the first time since the Fountain Of Youth. I had great faith in him at one point and the Blue Grass was encouraging but I suspect that despite his win he has not gotten as much of this spring as he should have. The Arkansas Derby was a very good race but it didn’t sell me on Gayego. He is a nice and classy horse but much like Came Home I think he will struggle to get the distance on Derby day. Z Fortune ran a big race and improved, which is key. I don’t like the way he hung. He’s done it in both his races at Oaklawn. He looked to be mounting a serious challenge but then just levelled off. I suspect he had more to give and I hope they work out that issue in the mornings maybe with some works in company. Hopefully we’ll see him give it all on Derby day. Cowboy Cal is on the radar in case Tomcito or Atoned bomb in the Lexington or if one of these other top 8 pull out for whatever reason. He is the only other horse aside from these top 10 that I’d put money on. Because of the repeatedly wacky results and the host of uninspiring performances I am open to the notion that on any given day nearly any horse could beat all the others. But I’m still going to stick on the side of the averages. I’ll hope that if we do get a bomb it will be one of those under appreciated but still partly logical horses. Next week will be the last for the Derby top 10, by then all the significant preps will have been run. Tomcito and Atoned are both horses I think well of and I’m hoping they justify my belief in the Lexington. They’ll need to if they want to be in the Derby.

On the radar: Cowboy Cal

Dropped: Cool Coal Man (3), Visionaire (8), Big Truck, My Pal Charlie

Weekend Overview: The Derby picture was changed dramatically with Pyro’s loss in the Bluegrass. One would seemingly need to take the view that either only Colonel John and Big Brown can win or that absolutely anyone can win. We’ve got 3 exciting and debate filled weeks to decide. Fans of Turf racing were treated to a pair of top class encounters at Keeneland. Kip Deville reasserted himself as the best miler with a safe and steady win and Rutherienne returned to form and signalled that she’ll be a force to be reckoned with in 2008. The steady Semaphore Man got himself a Graded Stakes win in the Count Fleet and makes me wish once again that Euroears was healthy.

Performance of the Week: It remains to be seen whether or not she can run on dirt but Ventura surely qualifies as the newest Female Sprinting sensation. With the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita it may not matter if conventional dirt is her cup of tea. We certainly know that no one lined up against her in the Madison was anywhere near as good. She settled near the back of the pack but actually got shuffled back around the far turn. She had to wait momentarily in the straight but once she got clear she powered past her hapless competition and won with more ease than the margin suggests.

Race of the Week: As a fan I’m slightly biased towards Turf races and the Jenny Wiley is a prime example why. A top class field of fillies and in the end just a half length to separate the top four finishers. Rutherienne made an eye catching dive to the inside and persevered all the way to the line with the classy Lady Of Venice closing on the outside and the surprising Stormy West also coming very strongly. Roshani looked to be in the best position turning for home but she just couldn’t get away from the field.

Flop of the Weekend: I hate to give this to Precious Kitten because she is one of my favorite horses but I do think her’s was the most shocking under performance of the weekend. Pyro was bad but he’d never been on the surface. Precious Kitten lost a race when everything seemed right in her favor. It was a tough race to be sure but she had no excuse not to be involved in the stretch drive. It’s a bad sign for the Jackson’s who must have paid a handsome price to keep her in training.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The biggest news of the week was Pyro’s inability to recapture top spot in the Three Year Old Male division. He lost his place in the top three last week and this week he slid all the way to 5th. Colonel John and Big Brown remain 1-2. Golden Doc A slid into top spot in the Three Year Old Female Division but the top 4 are separated by just 5 points. It’s basically as even as it possibly could be. Einstein may not have won the Maker’s Mark Mile but his classy second place finish solidified his #1 Turf Male ranking and moved him to 4th overall in the nation.

Tip O’the Cap: Paulo Lobo gets a tip o’the cap for his handling of Gayego. This horse is hardly bred to be a stayer but Lobo is giving him every chance of succeeding in the Derby. He ran a superb race in the Arkansas Derby to hold off Z Fortune. Instead of staying back in California to face Colonel John he got him onto a traditional dirt track and Gayego responded with the best race of his life.

KC Handicapping: The carnage continues, it has now been five weeks since I managed to show a profit. This week was especially bad as 7 of my 8 selections didn’t even hit the frame. Roshani was beaten just 1/2 a length in the Jenny Wiley but didn’t even get third. Re-reading some of what I wrote I noticed that I had this to say about Rebellion “he’ll adore the conditions and it’s never good to underestimate a horse who is doing what they love most.” Then I promptly went out and underestimated him and he scored at 4/1. Such was my luck with both my handicapping in this space and my Keeneland selections on the sidebar who are quickly becoming a must avoid list.

You may notice the overall totals below now show over 500 selections in 248 races. That is because I’m merging the results posted here with those from my blog (Kennedy’s Corridor) before it was synched to the main page here. These results go all the way back to last few months of 2006. As you can see my performance has been negative over that period but the current losing streak does little to aid that and it is actually quite difficult to pick horses several days in advance. So much changes, including the most important factor: The prices. For instance had I been betting live I would have taken Kip Deville in the Maker’s Mark because he was not bet down much at all.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 8(6)-1-0-0 (-$8.60 -53.75% ROI)
Overall record: 501(248)-91-87-71 (-$78.40 -7.82% ROI)

Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes
This has always been one of my favorite races and this year it may have attracted the strongest field ever. Kip Deville returns for a campaign aimed at seeing him repeat as the BC mile champion. He is the horse to beat and the class benchmark. We know he likes yielding Turf and obviously he is good enough to beat any of these horses. He is also beatable in my opinion though. He was a horse who was perfectly setup for the big race in the BC Mile but he has never been unbeatable especially off of a layoff. I’m thinking that he’ll hit the frame but one or two horses may get the better of him. Cosmonaut should set what should be a steady pace. One of racings most consistent hard luck losers has actually been competing at a very high level since last summer. I’m opposing him though as he always seems to find a way to lose these big events. I’m very excited to see how the emerging Ruff And Ready handles this class of horse. I see huge potential for this Pletcher. He has never lost on the grass, he is very brave and tenacious. Last time out he also showed that he is still improving but already has the ability to put in a jaw dropping performance. He may be a 6 year old but injuries have prevented him from ever putting together a solid campaign. He is still not all he can be. I expect him to get a nice stalking trip and pull the trigger around the turn. If he is up to the form he was last time all the others will struggle to stay with him. Pletcher himself has also caught fire at Keeneland recently so the stable gives a good form reference. If Ruff And Ready runs well here I would be looking for a BC Future Bet outlet at first convenience. I haven’t mentioned good horses like War Monger, Einstien and Zann but in a field this deep a lot of very good horses have to end up running off the board. They wouldn’t shock me but I think Ruff And Ready and Kip Deville are all quite special and along with Ever A Friend and Thousand Words they could be the best four milers in the nation.

Ruff And Ready

Jenny Wiley Stakes
One has to be amazed at the quality of the two Turf stakes races Keeneland has drawn this weekend. Not only is the Maker’s Mark Mile a championship quality event but this race, which is just a G-2 is also championship quality. I suppose we’re missing Dreaming Of Anna, Wait A While and Vacare but otherwise it’s a super field. One of my most favorite horses, Precious Kitten, returns in 2008 in search of an Eclipse Award that should have been hers in 2007. She was the best in 2007 and now under new ownership she’ll be out to prove that she’s the best this year. However that will be no easy task. Bit of Whimsey, Lady Of Venice, Sealy Hill, Roshani and Rutherienne are all here. All of those horses are capable so for this race I’m just going to pick one and stick with that. I actually love Roshani to step up and show that she is a real contender. I think this comes down to Pletcher vs Frankel. Roshani will have to produce the race of her life to beat Precious Kitten but I think she can do it. Last year she had only two losses. One was in her stakes debut to Karen’s Caper by just half a length. Karen’s Caper as you may recall was a peer of Gorella. The other was in a race that she likely would have won had she not been cruelly shut off. She was promoted to second but the interference surely cost her the win. In her first race of 2008 she ran one of her most powerful performances to date and to me it signalled that this year she’s a better filly.

Roshani

Commonwealth Stakes
Another great field. Not exactly top notch in terms of accomplishments but a very even field with tons of angles. It looks as though crack miler Thousand Words is set for this race after scratching from the Maker’s Mark. He will likely be bet down from his 7/2 morning line price. There is a good bit of buzz surrounding him. A razor sharp performance on the grass and then a bullet work at Keeneland. He has already run well on Polytrack finishing just 1 1/4 lengths behind Heatseeker. Frankel has been dominating the Keeneland stakes races and so have horses with Californian form. Turf to Polytrack has long been a good angle and I think Thousand Words will sweep past this field. A few others to keep an eye on though are Xchanger who has worked three straight bullets coming into this race. You don’t often see three bullets in a row without a race in between. It could signal readiness for a big effort. Especially in a sprint but he’s untried at the distance and on the surface and so is a bad bet at 4/1. Rebellion will be coming from the clouds and might juice up an exacta. I don’t think he is quite good enough at his best to win but he’ll adore the conditions and it’s never good to underestimate a horse who is doing what they love most. I also think Forefathers could be sitting on a big year. He was well thought of last season but lost his way in the spring. He got good again in the fall but was way over his head in the BC. His first race of this campaign was very very good. I expect him to run well but in the end I can’t see past Thousand Words.

Thousand Words

I have to credit a post in the TBC forum as the inspiration for this weeks peek at statistics.

The observation was made that it has now been twelve days since Big Brown raced and he still has no published works. Is this a problem or concern? At what point does it become a concern?

Here is a look at all the Derby winners this decade and the spacing between their last prep race and their next published work.

Street Sense - 10 days
Barbaro - 12 days
Giacomo - 16 days
Smarty Jones - 14 days
Funny Cide - 10 days
War Emblem - 12 days
Monarchos - 13 days
Fusaichi Pegasus - 15 days

I only included horses from the year 2000 and onward because training methods have changed dramatically over the years. For instance in 1996 there were only two horses who had more than ten days spacing between their last prep and their first time back to work. Now you find nearly the converse.

In fact since 2000 there has been only 33 Derby entrants (from 148) that had less than ten days off after their last prep. Interestingly enough those horses who had so called “short rest” went 33-0-1-2 in the Derby. The vast majority of those horses had nine days off, the seven horses who came back to work even sooner than nine days all flopped badly in the Derby.

Does this mean anything? Well for me it seems to indicate that the trend is towards more rest, a fact which is evident at all levels of the game. Fresh horses do seem to be outperforming those who are asked to work harder and I expect that to continue. Largely because more and more horses are getting lengthier rests.

At what point does rest become a negative? There were no horses in the Derby without a recorded work within twenty days of their last prep unless they were foreign. I would be keeping a close eye on Big Brown’s work tab after the two week mark but wouldn’t be worried until three weeks have elapsed. It’s possible that his feet won’t allow him to work but it’s also likely that Dutrow doesn’t want him to work back quickly.

Derby Top 10 - April 7th

1. Colonel John (4)
2. Pyro (1)
3. Cool Coal Man (3)
4. Big Brown (5)
5. Smooth Air (6)
6. Eight Belles (10)
7. Atoned (new)
8. Visionaire (new)
9. Court Vision (8)
10. Tomcito (new)

In my original Derby Top 10 for 2008 I had Colonel John ranked second behind War Pass and had this to say about him “Colonel John has impressed me as the best of the rest (behind War Pass), the 2yo crop has not seemed to be very good but sometimes that happens when you have a real star. Colonel John has all the right tools to eventually be a #1 Derby horse. He’s quick, he’s got some handy speed, he’s bred to run long and he’s already handled two turns with ease.” Colonel John has put it all together and has finally fulfilled that promise in my eyes at least. He is my new #1 Derby horse, War Pass and Pyro are the only other horses who have been given the top spot. I really loved the performance by Colonel John in the Santa Anita Derby. Not everything went smoothly for him but he showed his class and toughness to get the job done. I was also very impressed with him physically. He looked like a man among boys in the paddock, he has a very regal build and looks every inch a classic horse. In my opinion he is the most complete Derby contender out there at the moment. The one issue that is a slight concern is that he has never run on dirt but realistically he’ll either like it or he won’t. Having previously run on it is not an advantage from the horse’s perspective. All it does is make his backers more nervous. Truth be told there will be plenty of horses on Derby day who won’t care for the track. Colonel John seems as if he’ll handle dirt well. Some are also nervous about the fact that his highest lifetime Beyer figure is 95. That would make him the “slowest” winner ever but I’ve always said that a horse only needs to be “fast enough” to beat the horses their facing and a 95 is definitely good enough to beat this group. I also suspect (as I have since the figures were made) that all the figures on All Weather surfaces are lower than the equivalents on dirt. Beyer should probably not even be making figures for Santa Anita because they have not had enough time to establish proper pars for this new surface. Pyro drops to second but has every chance to get back on top with a good race in the Bluegrass. He’ll be facing Cool Coal Man and Visionaire in what promises to be one of the most important preps of the spring. Cool Coal Man is very much under the radar but I have him as the #3 Derby contender at this point. He has not done a thing wrong and has just as much chance as anyone of improving. Eight Belles moved up the ranking sharply and would likely be in the top 5 if not for the doubt over her participation. This filly is fast, quick and has the heart to gut it out if need be. She’s a very good Derby candidate, I only hope she runs here. Atoned has to seem like an odd selection. He was not in my list last week and now after a 4th place finish he is in the top 10 and he’s ranked over Visionaire. Basically I think Atoned is going to be sitting on a huge race, maybe not a winning performance but at this stage I don’t think anyone is still realistically looking for 10 different winners. Many of the horses on the list simply have a good chance to hit the frame. I expected Atoned to either run second again in Illinois or regress, the former would not have been a great sign in terms of him breaking out of his losing slump but a bad race can be just the thing. He’ll need some help to get in the Derby but he’s very live if he runs. Court Vision had every chance to catch the front runners in the Wood and he couldn’t. He isn’t fast enough and while I do expect him to be coming in the final furlong I think he’ll be too far back to matter. Third or Fourth in the Derby look to be his most realistic targets. I’ve added Tomcito because of the news that he’s headed to the Lexington. I didn’t think that his Florida Derby performance was good enough to set him up for the Derby but an improved effort in the Lexington might be just what he needs. Remember horses like Charismatic and Proud Citizen both were less than stellar in one of the big 5 preps then came to life in Lexington. I have dropped all the Wood Memorial horses aside from Court Vision because I intensely disliked the race. I think that was the best we can expect from War Pass and it’s no where near good enough to win. Tale of Ekati and War Pass will both struggle to get the Derby distance. As will El Gato Malo as I’ve suspected all spring. He ran like a miler, is bred to be a miler and is built like a miler. It’s no great surprise that he turned out to be one. Denis of Cork was left in shambles after the Illinois Derby and I don’t expect to see him at Churchill. Recapturetheglory is a horse I’d strenuously oppose, he looks like cheap speed from top to bottom.

On the radar: Cowboy Cal, Big Truck, My Pal Charlie

Dropped: Denis Of Cork (2), El Gato Malo (7), War Pass (9)

Weekend Overview: Race fans live for weekend’s like this. Bustin Stones and Zenyatta remained undefeated with excellent G-1 victories. War Pass and Tiago got their stuttering campaigns back on track with good performances in the Wood and Oaklawn Handicap. Recapturetheglory and Precious Passion both stole a G-2 in front running style and Colonel John stamped himself as a Derby contender of the highest order. For those worried about how Californian synthetic form translates to dirt. Tiago, Zenyatta and Heatseeker all gave that form a big boost. The talented J Be K also stamped himself as a horse to watch with a great performance in the Bay Shore.

Performance of the Week: I thought the best individual performance of the weekend was easily Zenyatta’s powerful race in the Apple Blossom. Facing champion Ginger Punch for the first time there was some doubt as to whether or not this lightly race filly would be able to maintain her unbeaten record. She was far back in the early stages and even around the far turn still had plenty to do but once this big horse gets down to business it seems inevitable that she’ll simply make up as much ground as she needs to. In a flash she was well in front under a hand ride. She destroyed the field by 4 1/2 lengths and looked as though she never really got warmed up. She displays an incredible amount of talent and professionalism for a horse with just 4 starts. She’s built like a tank and physically looks like more than a match for most of the older males. She is far and away the best filly in training and conceivably she has much more improving to do. If you’re looking for a reason to become excited about this game look no further.

Race of the Week: Oaklawn was the place to be this weekend. You may not have seen any Derby prep races but you did see the best performance of the week by Zenyatta, Eight Belles continued her fine streak and you also would have seen the most exciting race of the year in the Oaklawn Handicap. Heatseeker came into Oaklawn as the favorite off of his win in the Santa Anita Handicap but he’d never been on dirt. Tiago was 4th in the Big Cap and was looking to get his season back on track. These two blew past the pace setter at the head of the lane and there was nothing between them for the whole stretch. Tiago wound up just nipping Heatseeker on the wire but it was almost too close to call. This is a legitimate candidate for race of the year.

Flop of the Weekend: Definitely has to be Denis Of Cork or his connections. He has been babied along the trail and they were scared that he might bounce if they ran him back too soon after the Risen Star. They chose the Illinois Derby as his last stop and he did not perform well at all. perhaps the track was speed favoring or perhaps he bounced anyway. Regardless he performed well below expectations and now his connections have to take a long look at whether the Derby is even an option.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: This was the first big weekend of the year with more than just a G-1 or two. There were 5 G-1’s and not surprisingly 4 of those 5 horse made it into the top 10. Curlin still has more points than any other horse but since he has not run at least once in North America he is not eligible to be included in the TCR standings. Heatseeker’s narrow loss at Oaklawn saw him relinquish the overall top spot that he’s held for 5 weeks. The new #1 horse in America is Bustin Stones who edged past Heatseeker by 0.98pts. Bustin Stones is undefeated and turned in another good performance in the Carter. He went to the front and never looked back which is tough to do at 7f. Zenyatta is the new top Main Track Older Female, Bsharpsonata took back the Three Year Old Female division and Colonel John is the temporary top Three Year Old Male. The divisions and overall standings are beginning to sort themselves out and over the next few months you should see more consistency among the top five in each division.

Tip O’the Cap: I think Bsharpsonata may just be my favorite filly and I have to give her another salute for her gutsy race in the Ashland. She’ll now go to the Kentucky Oaks with a stellar record but won’t be anywhere near one of the betting favorites. This horse does not get the respect she deserves but Salzman knows what he’s got and congratulations to him for getting the best out of her. Maybe the gamest and most versatile filly in the nation.

KC Handicapping: I felt rather good about my selections for this week and all of them race decent. It’s a shame I still lost money because Hyperbaric nearly got it done against Daytona and for a moment at the head of the stretch it looked as though Executive Fleet would be a winner as well. There was good value in exacta’s and trifecta’s if you used Coast Guard and Executive Fleet.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 5(4)-1-2-2 (-$2.80 -28.00% ROI)
Overall record: 63(47)-12-14-10 (-$25.40 -20.16% ROI)

Here are some things I’ll be keeping an eye on.

Although I won’t be betting all of the big three preps I will be watching them closely for clues.

I’m really only interested in the horses who finish in the money and/or within 3 lengths of the winners.

Atoned may be the only exception to that, given the fact that he’s had so many seconds in a row I would forgive a poor effort as often horses that are stuck in rut like this throw in a bad performance before they get better.

Colonel John, Denis Of Cork, Atoned and Court Vision are really the only horses who I’m expecting to appear like possible Derby winners after these preps are over. War Pass is a maybe but with the questions surrounding his participation and the sloppy track I’m not what I’ll make of his race even if he wins.

It’ll take a big race done in the right way for any other horse to force his way into my thinking. Even though I’m backing Coast Guard to win the SA Derby I don’t think he’ll be a real legitimate Derby horse. Well at least not a Kentucky Derby horse, I certainly hope he’s up to Santa Anita’s version.

I will also be frowning upon horses that get passed in the last 1/8th of a mile.

For pretty much all of these horses I’m also going to prefer a new Beyer career top. None of them have run terribly high numbers as of yet so a regression in figs might suggest that they aren’t fast enough.

Carter Handicap
Aqueduct will probably be a mess on Saturday so it’s a good time to focus on the mudlarks. I think the proficient horse in the slop is one that is being overlooked and he might have had a great shot regardless. Executive Fleet has been in great form recently. His last two races were stellar and although they were against much lighter class sprinting is the easiest division to bypass the class levels. At to this the fact that only Bustin Stones and maybe Spring at last look truly first class. Bustin Stones has a poor post and has never been on a bad surface. He looks good but not overpowering. Horses like Premium Wine and Lord Snowden should be closing hard but I always prefer speed or tactical speed in the slop. Executive Fleet will likely settle just off the speed. His trainer Linda Rice is also very hot with all of her last 9 runners making the exacta.

Executive Fleet

Arcadia Handicap
I don’t have a link online to the Past Performances so I was hesitant to feature this race but I do have what I feel is a strong fancy at a decent price so I’m including it anyway. The attention of this race will center around Daytona who is by all accounts a very nice turf horse. But one of the plays I love is to oppose good turf horses who are proficient at 9-10f when they cut back to 8f. He has also travelled back and forth across the country twice this spring and perhaps those exertions will catch up with him. Hyperbaric makes his turf stakes debut in this race but has already shown the ability to run very well at a mile. He has the look of a specialist with a quick turn of foot and the ability to settle either near the pace or off of it. He didn’t run at all in 2007 but his first race back from injury was a good one where he was just beaten on the line. Canani is as shrewd as they come with a grass horse and this seemingly ambitious placement may look like a stroke of genius on Saturday night.

Hyperbaric

Santa Anita Derby
Colonel John is the horse to beat in this race. He’s got the class and despite a narrow margin of victory in his last against El Gato Malo I think he’ll handle that rival easier this time. He looked to be holding him safe at the line and should be all the more cranked for this race. The added distance will play more into his hands and I think El Gato Malo will struggle all the more as the race gets longer. The pace should be good with Bob Black Jack and Polonius, On The Virg could also add some spice up front. If I had to pick an upset in this race I’d definitely take Coast Guard. He looked like he had all the promise in the world in the Robert Lewis but he came totally unglued in the El Camino Real. His last sharp work indicates a real readiness and he may just get first run on Colonel John who may be more concerned with horses behind him. His figures show a good pattern for a possible bounce back and I’ll use Coast Guard on all tickets as an alternative to the favorite.

Coast Guard
Colonel John

Lafayette Stakes
I’m going back to the well in hopes of catching a play that worked last time. I think Eaton’s Gift is a first rate sprinter and he has the chance here to avenge his only sprinting loss which came at the hands of Kodiak Kowboy. Kodiak Kowboy might be odds on in this field because there is a general feeling that this is the Kings Bishop winner in waiting. Kodiak Kowboy is very tough and does not exactly appear vulnerable on paper but I think there is a general underestimation of Eaton’s Gift. He is the controlling speed, he loves Polytrack, he’s razor sharp and he might be 3/1 or more. One can only hope at least. This is not really looking for an upset I’m actually thinking that Eaton’s Gift can prove he’s the better sprinter.

Eaton’s Gift