Street Sense. Barbarbo. Smarty Jones. The majority of recent Derby winners were among the top choices in the betting. Funny Cide also belonged in that group, he was in my top three that year, but the public didn’t see it that way and he went off higher than he should have. Giacomo, of course, was the recent exception as the 50-1 shocker. This year, if Big Brown runs sub-par like Afleet Alex did, or can’t go 10f, that certainly is more possible to repeat this year than most. But still, my bet is one of the likely winners will win.
1. Big Brown–if he likes 10f, he wins; if not, it’s up in the air. Even then he could hang on with bad luck trips from others. Don’t look for him to wire, I think he’ll be 3rd early.
2. Colonel John–most years the Beyers would scream not fast enough, but this year, he has to be considered a top contender anyway. He also has the poly to dirt angle, which often results in a big jump up in the Beyer. I wouldn’t overlook that angle.
3. Z Fortune–this is the horse that reminds me of Funny Cide. He has one of the highest Beyers going 9f and was a tough beat second in his final prep. He was wider around both turns than the winner, galloped out better, and is better bred for 10f. My value horse.
4. Eight Belles–she has the perfect style to win this race if she is good enough. She should be one of those that has first strike at Big Brown, and in fact, when playing out the race call by call, it is the filly I see reaching 2nd as they turn for home. If she “goes on” the last furlong and Big Brown doesn’t, she may become the one to catch.
5. Pyro–I still like his finishing kick and it would not surprise me to see him go flying by them all late. I’ve liked him since he was two and I wouldn’t mind that one bit. I’ve never seen a horse finish 10th in his final prep and then win the Derby, but the poly to dirt angle may make that more common. Still, it seems most good horses run well on both.
6. Monba–he is another I think is being overlooked and could be a good price to hit the board. I can even see him winning.
7. Gayego–I really don’t think he’ll relish the extra furlong, but looking at him hold off Z Fortune he does show a ton of heart and seems to be doing what he needs to do to win. He just might surprise people.
That’s it. I don’t see anyone else winning. I think the Visionaires and Court Visions of the field that are looking and training well are ones to play for second or third, not on top.
April 29th, 2008 at 6:17 am
If you can finish 2nd, is it that much of a stretch to win the whole buschel of roses?
April 29th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
It’s so easy to pick the Derby winner, that you were able to narrow it down to seven out of the 20!
April 30th, 2008 at 1:37 am
I only see Colonel John, Gayego, or Eight Belles winning the Derby. Z Fortune and Monba are good value plays underneath. I will take a stand against Big Brown and Pyro on top.