Lexington Stakes
The Kentucky Derby is on everyones mind this week. This is the last meaningful prep race for the Derby and even the workouts from Derby contenders seem to eclipse the other stakes races being run this weekend in terms of importance. I looked hard but did not find many races to throw my weight behind. It could have to do with the slump I’m in, I’m just not feeling it. Or it could be that there is a lack of good, playable stakes races this weekend. At any rate the only race where I have a strong opinion is the Lexington. Any horse who wins this will likely be sent to the Derby but realistically Atoned and Tomcito are the only horses with a chance at doing the double. Atoned is a play I’ve been stalking for a while now. He clearly has ability. Four straight second place finishes in stakes races can attest to that. But he’s had problems closing out a race, which is another thing that his four second place finishes attest to. He’s good enough to win but he’s not winning, sounds like something mental. As odd as it sounds a bad race is often just what a horse needs to wake them up. He did not run all that poorly in the Illinois Derby but he was a little flat on a track that was impossible to close into. He came back with a sharp move on this surface and although he has never raced on Polytrack I think his form may be too much for the opposition. This is still a legitimate Derby horse and I think he’s Pletchers best. The main danger will come from Tomcito. He was flat footed in the Florida Derby but he needed that race. He worked sharply from the gate and should show more speed. I think he’ll still be closing from well back though and he may just run out of ground. That would still set him up well for the Derby. A bit of a longshot that I like to juice up the exotics is St. Joe. His connections took the Blue Grass last year with Dominican and this speedster loves the Polytrack. He got a 97 BSF taking an allowance field wire to wire on a day when no one was winning on the front end. 97 is just about the highest number of the meet. He has failed in all his stretchout attempts but Polytrack may be the key. Use him underneath only though as I don’t see him being able to hold off Atoned or Tomcito. Salute the Sarge, Racecar Rhapsody and Riley Tucker are the only other horses I’d really look at. I’m not strongly in favor of any of them but they would not be a shock. Still I think Atoned will sit a nice stalking trip and make a winning move around the far turn and at last have the fortitude to stay in front all the way to the line.
Atoned