Derby Top 10 - April 15th
1. Colonel John (1)
2. Big Brown (4)
3. Smooth Air (5)
4. Eight Belles (6)
5. Z Fortune (new)
6. Atoned (7)
7. Court Vision (9)
8. Tomcito (10)
9. Pyro (2)
10. Monba (new)
The last weekend of major prep races sure threw a wrench in the mix. I, like most people, figured that Pyro would run well run even if he didn’t win, that this was just a formality to get him in shape for the Derby. It was anything but and now his connections are even admitting that he likely didn’t get much out of the race. The same has to go for Cool Coal Man and Big Truck, none of them ran a step. I am completely at peace with the notion that they didn’t handle the track but what worries me is the blown chance to build fitness and endurance. All three of those horses should bounce back to form once they get back on real dirt but we need them to improve their old form not simply run back to their previous 3yo top. Cool Coal Man and Big Truck have been dropped because of this. Pyro stays on the list only because a return to his best form would put him right in the hunt and I think he has more class than the others. It will be interesting to see how these horses work given that they likely got nothing out of the Blue Grass. Perhaps Asmussen should ring up Bernie Stutts and ask to work Pyro with Smooth Air. The trusty little Smooth Air worked another quick mile at Calder. Make no mistake, this will be one of the fittest horses in the Derby. He moves up to third nearly by default and while he does not exactly have a classic winners profile he is quickly becoming one of the most solid contenders and may well be the best value on Derby day. Smooth Air reminds me of a Funny Cide type of horse, I fully expect him to run a huge race at Churchill. Visionaire ran the best race of the established horses in the Blue Grass but I’m dropping him as well. He didn’t seem to handle the track too badly he just didn’t have enough kick to get near the leaders. His breeding is already slightly suspect and I this in my opinion was a pivotal race for him, he failed and so I don’t think of him as one of the top 10 Derby prospects. Monba returns to the list for the first time since the Fountain Of Youth. I had great faith in him at one point and the Blue Grass was encouraging but I suspect that despite his win he has not gotten as much of this spring as he should have. The Arkansas Derby was a very good race but it didn’t sell me on Gayego. He is a nice and classy horse but much like Came Home I think he will struggle to get the distance on Derby day. Z Fortune ran a big race and improved, which is key. I don’t like the way he hung. He’s done it in both his races at Oaklawn. He looked to be mounting a serious challenge but then just levelled off. I suspect he had more to give and I hope they work out that issue in the mornings maybe with some works in company. Hopefully we’ll see him give it all on Derby day. Cowboy Cal is on the radar in case Tomcito or Atoned bomb in the Lexington or if one of these other top 8 pull out for whatever reason. He is the only other horse aside from these top 10 that I’d put money on. Because of the repeatedly wacky results and the host of uninspiring performances I am open to the notion that on any given day nearly any horse could beat all the others. But I’m still going to stick on the side of the averages. I’ll hope that if we do get a bomb it will be one of those under appreciated but still partly logical horses. Next week will be the last for the Derby top 10, by then all the significant preps will have been run. Tomcito and Atoned are both horses I think well of and I’m hoping they justify my belief in the Lexington. They’ll need to if they want to be in the Derby.
On the radar: Cowboy Cal
Dropped: Cool Coal Man (3), Visionaire (8), Big Truck, My Pal Charlie