Here are some things I’ll be keeping an eye on.
Although I won’t be betting all of the big three preps I will be watching them closely for clues.
I’m really only interested in the horses who finish in the money and/or within 3 lengths of the winners.
Atoned may be the only exception to that, given the fact that he’s had so many seconds in a row I would forgive a poor effort as often horses that are stuck in rut like this throw in a bad performance before they get better.
Colonel John, Denis Of Cork, Atoned and Court Vision are really the only horses who I’m expecting to appear like possible Derby winners after these preps are over. War Pass is a maybe but with the questions surrounding his participation and the sloppy track I’m not what I’ll make of his race even if he wins.
It’ll take a big race done in the right way for any other horse to force his way into my thinking. Even though I’m backing Coast Guard to win the SA Derby I don’t think he’ll be a real legitimate Derby horse. Well at least not a Kentucky Derby horse, I certainly hope he’s up to Santa Anita’s version.
I will also be frowning upon horses that get passed in the last 1/8th of a mile.
For pretty much all of these horses I’m also going to prefer a new Beyer career top. None of them have run terribly high numbers as of yet so a regression in figs might suggest that they aren’t fast enough.
April 5th, 2008 at 3:58 am
Pretty sad when you talk about horses that are “fast enough” for the Derby or have “high enough” Beyers in April and you realize that you’ve got…what, Big Brown and Pyro? And a temperamental War Pass? I’m starting to think that the standard rules regarding the Derby are going to have to be thrown out the window this year, especially with the amount of non-dirt runners that will be heading to the Downs this year…
I kind of hate unorthodox Derby days, this stinks.
April 5th, 2008 at 7:56 am
Well perhaps for some people but not for me. I don’t use an arbitrary “fast enough” line. I determine who is or isn’t fast enough by averaging the winning two turn Beyers achieved by the field. Someone will always be fast enough and incidentally Giacomo was fast enough to win his Derby.