1. Big Brown–only moves up one spot, as his Florida Derby was pretty much the same as his allowance race. People comparing him to Bellamy Road are off base. This isn’t a horse who suddenly jumped up, he received a 104 Beyer for his allowance win and a 106 for the Florida Derby. It’s a very good sign to see that number improve as the distance stretches out, and it’s not that surprising if you are not tunnel visioned on his sire and consider the stamina of his damsire, Nureyev. Also, unlike both Curlin and Bellamy Road, Big Brown gets five weeks rest and was already less likely to bounce since he didn’t actually run a new top, he just repeated an effort. He’s fit, he’s fast, the main mark is those feet. He already has gone the distance of 10f if you paid attention to the Florida Derby gallop out.
2. Pyro–I love his finishing kick, but he may have to get it in gear a bit earlier if he expects to catch a horse like Big Brown, who has shown he can carry his speed even when setting blistering fractions. Since Big Brown will probably be just off the lead in the Derby, and Pyro far back, the match up favors Big Brown style wise and history wise as the winner of the Derby is usually ahead at the eighth pole, unless you are Giacomo. So far this year, he simply hasn’t been fast enough to beat Big Brown, but his final prep could change that.
3. Denis of Cork–I like his pedigree for going 10f, but he will have to go faster to win the Derby. The Florida Derby has finally raised the bar.
4. Colonel John–same boat as above, nice pedigree for going a distance, but will have to run faster if Big Brown stays healthy.
5. El Gato Malo–iffy pedigree for 10f, so he is one to watch closely going 9f and seeing how he finishes and gallops out past the wire.
6. War Pass–worked well this past week, but must return to BC Juvy form in the Wood to show he hasn’t lost his edge. He may go into the Derby with his BC Juvy as his highest Beyer, usually not a good sign, but it worked for Street Sense last year.
7. Smooth Air–the Florida Derby was a decent effort from him and overlooked in all the Big Brown talk. He was trained to perfection and took another step forward despite being no match for Big Brown, but he did beat Tomcito by an even larger margin.
8. Visionaire–his 98 Beyer last out looks pretty good compared to many here, but he was no match for Pyro the race before that.
9. Court Vision–drops down a bit due to dismal effort from Elysium Fields, who beat him last out. Excuse or not, it doesn’t flatter him.
10. Cool Coal Man–same story for his, not flattered by Elysium Field’s was out in the Florida Derby, making me believe that my original belief that the entire Fountain of Youth field that came home so slowly are more pretenders than contenders.
11. Tomcito–a decent US debut, coming from last to get third, but still was trounced by the top two and was just passing tired horses. Might be better suited to the Belmont.
12. Big Truck, Yankee Bravo (tie)–both close well but will have to run faster.
dropped off: Fierce Wind, Georgie Boy
April 3rd, 2008 at 12:35 pm
Considering that Elsyium Fields was finished before the race started, hard to knock down CCM and Court Vision based on the FD.