#13 The entrant must have at least one prep race at nine furlongs. This factor the entrant’s experience. Could a horse stay 10f without having prepped at 9f? Sure they could, they are merely not as tested and generally less likely. Derby entrants need a good solid 9f prep race. Horses who did not prep at 9f went 16-0-0-0 in the Derby.

That is a strike against the highly regarded Eight Belles. All other entrants had 9f prep races this year.

#14 The entrant must have faced a field size of 10 or more as a three year old, or the entrant must have done so at least twice as a two year old. The Derby has large fields and the entrants need to have experience with traffic and such. I prefer that the experience come in stakes races as a 3yo but a horse cannot control who is entered against them. I require two races of 10 or more as a 2yo because most maidens have large fields, yet many of them are won wire to wire so the entrant would not have necessarily gained much experience. Getting bumped and blocked is commonplace in the Derby, those who tried to win the Derby without sufficient experience in large fields went 34-0-3-3 and this is no doubt what played against Curlin last year despite his good effort and decent third place finish.

This factor is against Eight Belles and Tale of Ekati.

#15 Highest Lifetime Beyer must be achieved in a two turn race. This is a pretty straightforward measurement of suitability to the Derby conditions. We don’t want sprinters in the Derby, a quality distance horse will be faster in longer races than they were at short distances. 17 horses entered the Derby with this factor going against them and just one of them (Proud Citizen) managed to do himself any credit with a second place finish (17-0-1-0)

Bob Black Jack and Tale of Ekati are well respected in many quarters but this suggests that they’re actually better horses at a mile or less.

#16 The entrants sire or broodmare sire must show a progeny average winning distance of 8.00f or more. Only North American stakes races are included in the measurement of AWD. This is the only aspect of breeding I consider. Dosage is misleading but this factor looks directly at how the sire and broodmare sires best runners have fared in stakes races. If they are predominantly sprinters the average will show less than 8f and a sprinters pedigree is not ideal for winning the Derby. Horses whose sire and broodmare sire have less than 5 stakes runners are not included and therefore those horses are given a pass. The cumulative record of non-qualifiers is 19-0-1-0. Horses like Street Sense and Monarchos were given passes because of insufficient data on their sires at the time.

Recapturetheglory, Gayego, Z Fortune, Visionaire and Denis of Cork all have breeding that does not suggest proficiency at 10f. Smooth Air, Big Truck and Tale of Ekati were given passes.

So there you have it, the complete Derby 20-20 system. You can see how these combined factors scored the past 12 Derby’s by clicking this link or visiting the sidebar where it is listed under the Derby Top 10. Hopefully this year the results are more in line with the systems predictions because it’s good to keep in mind that although something sounds great and works well in the past it is only useful if it works well going forward. Hopefully over the next 3-5 years we’ll be able to get a picture of how it holds up.

This is how this years running is looking.

Horse – Points
Colonel John – 14
Big Brown – 12
Cowboy Cal – 11
Eight Belles – 11
Recapturetheglory – 11
Adriano – 10
Bob Black Jack – 10
Gayego – 10
Monba – 10
Z Fortune – 10
Court Vision – 8
Pyro – 8
Smooth Air – 7
Big Truck – 5
Visionaire – 5
Cool Coal Man – 4
Denis of Cork – 4
Z Humor – 4
Tale Of Ekati – 3
Anak Nakal – 0

Observations based on the 20-20 system
I consider Speed, Fitness and Form to be the most important of the 7 factors. Those 3 make up 10 of the 16 factors and thus give those areas slightly more weight than Class, Experience, Suitability and Breeding.

Horses running on all weather surfaces once again struggled to measure up to the speed standards and this is perhaps more proof of the fact that Beyer speed figures seem lower than their equivalents on dirt. I suspect that horses like Colonel John and Bob Black Jack are faster than the numbers suggest.

The top horse according to the system is Colonel John. He is not a perfect qualifier though as he failed to measure up to Factor #2. Personally I still think he is the most solid and if All Weather Beyer figures are indeed lower than they should be then Colonel John would be qualify for Factor #2 and be a perfect qualifier.

Big Brown is second on the list but is slightly suspect considering that the two factors he failed on (#4, #6) both had to do with fitness. If the statistics ring true Big Brown will have a hard time in the final furlong.

The 20-20 system is suggesting that the biggest hurdle standing in the way of Eight Belles is experience.

Anak Nakal is the worst horse in the Derby.

Tale of Ekati is the worst winner of a major prep race.

There are no perfect qualifiers this year, which may suggest that the field is wide open because no one is perfectly suited for victory. The last time that happened was 2005, the year of Giacomo.

If you missed Part 1 be sure to check it out here: 20-20 Derby Vision 2008 - Part 1

#4 The entrants last two prep races must have been run around two turns. Two turn experience is vital for having a horse ready to go 10f in May. Horses with a single prep race around one turn (or less) are 17-0-0-0 in the Derby. Horses like Bellamy Road, Showing Up and Favorite Trick were all non-qualifiers.

This year Big Brown is the only horse that does not qualify

#5 The entrants finishing position must be no worse than their position at the 1/8th pole in both final preps. This is the second fitness factor. Derby winners rarely get passed in the stretch. They should be at least able to hold their position through the final 1/8th. The non-qualifiers for this factor were 60-1-3-3 in the Derby inclduing a full 10 horses in last years race. Only three of them finished in the top half of the field. Silver Charm managed to win the Derby after getting passed in the Santa Anita Derby but anyone who saw that race might give him a pass considering that he set blazing fractions and was only nosed out right at the wire.

Cowboy Cal, Recapturetheglory, Bob Black Jack, Gayego and Cool Coal Man all failed to hold their position in the stretch in one of their last two races.

#6 The entrant must have run the final 1/8, ¼ and 3/8th’s faster than or equal to the fields average closing fractions in their last prep. In order to win the Derby you have to finish well. If you’re gasping for breath in the final stages of a 9f race you won’t handle the Derby distance as well. Since virtually the whole field has their last prep at 9f it is easy to compare closing fractions. If a Derby entrant fails to close out any of the final three time frames in less than the average time they’re given a strike. A horse must have run a 9f race to be included and any competitor who was beaten by more than 20 lengths is given a strike against but his fractions are not included in the average calculation.

This year the averages for the last three furlongs look like this. 1/8 = 0:12.8, 1/4 = 0:25.1, 3/8 = 0:37.5.

Big Brown, Adriano, Gayego, Z Fortune, Court Vision, Smooth Air, Cool Coal Man, Denis Of Cork, Tale Of Ekati and Anak Nakal all failed to qualify and Eight Belles was given a pass because of the lack of a 9f prep race.

#7 The entrant must have finished in the money in their last prep. This one is an obvious way of judging form. A horse needs to show that they are in fine form and one of the most obvious ways they do that is to finish in the top 3 in their last race. The horses who failed to qualify for this factor were a cumulative 50-1-2-0 in the Derby. Giacomo, Invisible Ink and Bluegrass Cat all rebounded from 4th place finishes to run well in the Derby.

Pyro, Big Truck, Visionaire, Cool Coal Man, Anak Nakal and Denis of Cork finished out of ther frame and so they’re given a strike.

#8 The entrant must either win or finish within three lengths of the winner in their last prep. Seems nearly redundant after viewing factor #7 but there are a few reasons to add this factor. I like the fact that out of form horses are punished for it more than once and this is a far more precise measurement in my opinion. For instance a horse may have run a good race to be a close 4th, conversely some horses are beaten by 10 lengths in their last prep but they managed to be third simply because everyone else who they were facing ran worse. The horses who failed to qualify for this factor were a cumulative 83-0-4-1 in the Derby. The best non-qualified performers with this angle were Bluegrass Cat, Invisible Ink, Impeachment, Aptitude and Closing Arguement.

For this years Derby it means Pyro, Big Truck, Visionaire, Cool Coal Man, Smooth Air, Z Humor, Anak Nakal and Denis of Cork all get minused another point.

#9 The entrant must have finished in the money in at least two races as a three year old. This value of this factor is two fold. First of all it tries to identify consistency among the entrants, but secondly it also means that a horse with two preps has very little wiggle room. The profile does not have any factor concerning the actual number of prep races. It only makes minimum requirement of what a horse must get from their prep races. In this case it effectively means that any horse with one prep is eliminated and also any horse with two preps who did not run well in both. Of course horses who do poorly over 3 or 4 preps can also be eliminated. The horses who failed to qualify for this factor were a cumulative 32-0-1-0 in the Derby. Proud Citizen was the only horse to overcome this factor and run with credit.

That could spell bad news for Monba, Z Humor, Tale of Ekati and Anak Nakal.

#10 The entrants last Beyer Speed Figure cannot be worse than his previous two. This is the last measurement of form. I feel that a horses last three Derby prep races are really the only ones of importanceand you don’t want the horses worst race to be his most current. I don’t mind slight regression but I want the trend of the speed figures to be up overall. If a horse only had two prep races they can be exempt from this factor. However not all horses with two preps will be exempt. For instance if a horse only has two preps but runs a career high in his last prep race then it’s obivous that his latest figure would not worse than his previous two. The horses who failed to qualify for this factor were a cumulative 39-0-1-1 in the Derby. Bluegrass Cat and Imperialism were the only ones to overcome this and run in the frame.

Pyro, Big Truck, Visionaire and Cool Coal Man all failed to qualify with this factor but be aware that all of these horses had been running well on dirt before having their last prep on Polytrack in the Bluegrass. That can have a significantly negative effect on Beyer figures.

#11 The entrant must be a stakes winner. This is the first measurement of class. Not only do we want them running in stakes races, we want them winning them as well. Now they do not have to be Graded Stakes races but I do want my Derby horses to have beaten more than maiden company. The cumulative record of horses who failed to qualify for this factor is 44-1-2-2. Giacomo of course was just a maiden winner, but the overwhelming majority of these horses ran poorly because most of them simply are not good enough.

All of the entrants this year qualified for this factor.

#12 The entrant must have either won or finished within three lengths of the winner in a Graded Main Track route race as a three year old. A further refinement of factor #11. We do want our Derby entrants to be stakes winner but we also prefer that their class be confirmed by good performances in route races on the Derby trail itself. A horse like Private Vow is case and point of what this factor eliminates. Horses who show some class as 2yo’s but as 3yo’s it is revealed that they no longer belong with the top tier. The cumulative record of horses who failed to qualifiy with this factor is 43-0-1-1.

Smooth Air, Z Humor and Anak Nakal seem to lack the class to compete in the Derby.

Since the Derby is on everyones mind and my mission is to give out useful information I have decided to start sharing the key factors that are the components of my Derby 20-20 system. The whole intention and vision of the Derby 20-20 system is to identify key statistical factors and trends and compile them into a profile that could be used for more accurate and profitable wagering on the Derby. Like with the Breeders’ Cup I do not advocate simply wagering blindly on a system like this. Common sense must always be applied. This is just a tool to help shape your view of the viability of each contender.

Not all statistics are valuable and certainly no statistic has any real value if used on its own. One can point to individual statistics but how do you use that information in this Derby? And how do you know that this is the one stat that has more value than all the others. Essentially what makes the two prep guideline more weighty than the layoff angle. The best way to use individual statistics is pooling them into a group and creating a profile that takes all factors into account but diminishes the significance of all single factors.

The Derby 20-20 profile has 16 statistical factors that I believe are keys to Derby success. The system has been revamped slightly since it’s debut on my blog last year. Scat Daddy was the main selection last year based on the stats but a closer look at the figures as well as bouncing some ideas off of a friend has produced a profile that makes more sense. The factors are now sorted by type and the whole system is more “narrow” meaning that it is more difficult for a horse to be a “perfect qualfier”. There has only been 18 in the last 12 years as opposed to 27 perfect qualfiers with the old system.

The system does not include any jinxes or curses and there are very few arbitrary lines drawn. For instance you will find no factor that specifically requires a certain amount of preps or even a pre-determined layoff length. All the factors have to do with speed, fitness, form, class, experience, suitability and breeding. The changes from last year to this were focused on removing the arbitrary lines such as “A horse must have a minimum of 5 career starts”. There is no law that says a horse cannot be good enough with less than 5 starts. What matters is what a horse has experienced in those starts not the number of starts. I am looking to remove as many arbitrary lines as possible.

The game really is changing, but at the same time some things don’t change. Prep schedules may change but then things like minimum speed requirements don’t. Unlike other Derby systems the focus is not on eliminating horses who can’t win the Derby. The focus is in trying to quantify the relative chances of each entrant. Each entrant is given a 20-20 score and graded based on that score. You can see the results this system would have produced over the last 12 runnings as well as tentative gradings for this years running by going to this link: Derby 20-20. All factors are grouped into 7 different sections that correspond to the 7 different essentials keys to winning the Derby – Speed, Fitness, Form, Class, Experience, Suitability and Breeding.

10 of the last 12 Derby winners had a perfect profile score and I think you’ll notice that there does seem to be a real correlation between a high score and a good finish in the Derby. Even many of the horses who hit the frame on Derby day had strong profile scores. A flat bet equal to their profile score on each runner in the Derby would have netted you a 47.46% ROI over the last 12 years. Although 6 of those years would have been losers. Had you bet on every horse in the Derby in equal amounts you would have lost -15.56% and had just 3 winning years. Simply taking the 18 perfect scorers and betting on them over the last 12 years you have seen you make 548.89% with just one losing year. The system can be used in many ways, helping you to shape your view of the race, pick winners and even have the right horses for the exotics.

Remember all stats quoted are from 1996 to the present unless otherwise stated.

#1 The entrant must earn a Beyer Speed Figure around two turns as a three year old that is equal to or superior to the average two turn prep winning figure. In other words I take the winning Beyer figures from all the two turn stakes prep races represented in the Derby and then average them. Every Derby winner in the last 12 years qualified with this factor, even Giacomo. Horses who did not qualify with this factor were a cumulative 89-0-3-1 in the Derby.

This years average is 95. That means Adriano, Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Monba, Bob Black Jack, Big Truck, Tale Of Ekati, Anak Nakal and Massive Drama are not fast enough.

#2 Last two Beyer figures achieved must total the average two turn prep winning figures times two minus five. Seems a bit mathematical but essentially this is an effort to weed out one time big figure horses. It demands consistent speed over the entrants last two races. So the average prep winning figure is multiplied by two. But we also recognize that these horses are improving and it is not necessary that a horse be “fast enough” to win the Derby 2 starts before the Derby itself. So we minus 5 Beyer points from the total to allow for this improvement. 5 is not an arbitrarily selected number. 5 is the average Beyer improvement shown by Derby winners during their prep races. Horses who did not qualify with this factor were a cumulative 115-1-5-4 in the Derby. Giacomo was the lone Derby winner who did not qualify.

So it means for this year that the entrants last two Beyer figures have to equal 185. This is another strike against all the horses affected by factor #1 but Colonel John, Behindatthebar, Z Fortune, Cool Coal Man, Visionaire, Smooth Air, Pyro, Proud Spell, Denis of Cork and Z Humor also get a strike against them. Cowboy Cal and Recapturetheglory get a pass on this factor because one of their last two races was not on the main track so it’s not equitable to include the figures.

#3 The entrant must have been first or second at the 1/8th pole in one of their final two prep races. This is a non-numerical measurement of speed. Plodders rarely win the Derby. Although the race is 10f it is often really just a race to the 1/8th pole. Most of the horses who are in front at the 1/8th pole are in front at the wire. We want a horse to have enough tactical speed to get them into a contending position when it matters. Horses who did not satisfy this criteria were a cumulative 61-0-3-3 in the Derby. Even Giacomo managed to show enough tactical speed in a prep race to qualify.

That is bad news for Court Vision, Denis Of Cork, Z Humor and Anak Nakal none of them appear to have the tactical speed to be in contention when it gets serious. Visionaire gets a pass on this factor because the fog in the Gotham denied us the opportunity to accurately plot where he was at the 1/8th pole.

For those keeping score you will have noticed that only Big Brown, Eight Belles and Gayego passed the 3 tests of speed.

Street Sense.  Barbarbo.  Smarty Jones.  The majority of recent Derby winners were among the top choices in the betting.  Funny Cide also belonged in that group, he was in my top three that year, but the public didn’t see it that way and he went off higher than he should have.  Giacomo, of course, was the recent exception as the 50-1 shocker.   This year, if Big Brown runs sub-par like Afleet Alex did, or can’t go 10f, that certainly is more possible to repeat this year than most.  But still, my bet is one of the likely winners will win.

1. Big Brown–if he likes 10f, he wins; if not, it’s up in the air.   Even then he could hang on with bad luck trips from others.  Don’t look for him to wire, I think he’ll be 3rd early.

2. Colonel John–most years the Beyers would scream not fast enough, but this year, he has to be considered a top contender anyway.  He also has the poly to dirt angle, which often results in a big jump up in the Beyer.  I wouldn’t overlook that angle.

3. Z Fortune–this is the horse that reminds me of Funny Cide.  He has one of the highest Beyers going 9f and was a tough beat second in his final prep.  He was wider around both turns than the winner, galloped out better, and is better bred for 10f.   My value horse.

4. Eight Belles–she has the perfect style to win this race if she is good enough.  She should be one of those that has first strike at Big Brown, and in fact, when playing out the race call by call, it is the filly I see reaching 2nd as they turn for home.  If she “goes on” the last furlong and Big Brown doesn’t, she may become the one to catch.   

5.  Pyro–I still like his finishing kick and it would not surprise me to see him go flying by them all late.  I’ve liked him since he was two and I wouldn’t mind that one bit.  I’ve never seen a horse finish 10th in his final prep and then win the Derby, but the poly to dirt angle may make that more common.  Still, it seems most good horses run well on both.

6. Monba–he is another I think is being overlooked and could be a good price to hit the board.  I can even see him winning.

7. Gayego–I really don’t think he’ll relish the extra furlong, but looking at him hold off Z Fortune he does show a ton of heart and seems to be doing what he needs to do to win.  He just might surprise people. 

That’s it.  I don’t see anyone else winning.   I think the Visionaires and Court Visions of the field that are looking and training well are ones to play for second or third, not on top. 

Tons of focus is placed on picking the right horse for the Derby but here are some helpful pitfalls to avoid when parsing through the contenders.

Don’t bank on any statistical factor that supposedly suggest that a horse can’t win the Derby. A statistic doesn’t have the power to identify reasons why a horse can’t win. At best they can explain why certain horses won’t win. There is a difference. Any horse can win the Derby with the right mixture of elements as we saw with Giacomo.

Be very wary of the wiseguy horse. Big Brown and Colonel John will be the two favorites. Big Brown will likely be slightly favored over the Californian but everyone loves a longshot or in this case a horse who is just a bit under the radar. The problem is that every year one of those under the radar types gets the momentum of the press behind it and the odds plummet. Keep an eye out for the horse whose post time odds have shortened the most from their morning line price. The wise guy horses rarely pan out as well as they’re expected to and they always offer poor value. Prefer instead a horse who virtually no one has mentioned but has a similar sort of record. You can always find a few of those in the Derby.

Comparing current Derby contenders with past ones is a pretty natural thing to do but it’s a dangerous pitfall because our belief that a current horse is just like a past Derby horse will bias our interpretation of that horse’s real form. Here are some comparisons I’m seeing made this year.

Eight Belles - Winning Colors
Smooth Air - Funny Cide
Z Fortune - Real Quiet
Gayego - Came Home
Court Vision - Saarland
Big Brown - Curlin

While some of these do seem to fit nicely don’t fall into the trap of thinking that because Came Home ran poorly Gayego will run poorly of that because Winning Colors won the Derby Eight Belles can also win the Derby. If Gayego does badly it will be because of himself, if Eight Belles does well it will be on her own merit.

Take a quick peek back through most of the past Derby winners, most of them bore no similarity to a Derby winner that preceded them. Smooth Air may seem like this year’s “Funny Cide” but who was Funny Cide like? Some people are keeping their eye out for a pace meltdown and the possibility of a “Giacomo” winning the race but who was the last Giacomo? I believe in Derby trends and statistics but comparisons like these are dangerous.

On Friday’s I usually offer my thoughts on a few of the weekends stakes races but a few factors have caused me to change it up just a bit. First of all most of the racing is low key this weekend I like mostly favorites. People don’t need me to point out why a favorite is solid. Secondly I think I’ve given out enough losers over the last few weeks to fill up my quota for the month and of course another big reason is that the Derby is what is on everyones mind. Unless you own Harlem Rocker (best of luck Patrick!) you’re unlikely to find the 4 horse Withers stakes more compelling than the slew of Derby preparations that will take place over the weekend.

One of the most important factors in picking a Derby winner is the workouts. Workouts can be tough to gauge because trainers all have different ideas and methods. Some like short fast works and some like long slow works but the one constant is that the horse needs to be thriving. Hopefully that horse is also in the best form it’s been all spring.

Here are some statistics to give you a bit of a barometer with the workouts.

A bullet work for those who might not know is the fastest recorded work of the day on that track for that specific distance. Given the fact that many of the Derby contenders these days are working the same distance (5f) it makes it a bit easier to compare.

Working a bullet since their last race seems to be quite an important factor. The last horse to win the Derby without a bullet work since their last race was Monarchos.

In the last 12 years horses who failed to work a bullet since their last race were 130-3-6-8 in the Derby. Obviously it’s not impossible for a horse to win without fast works. But now consider that horses who did have a bullet since their last race went 74-9-6-4.

If you key on only the horses who worked a bullet in their final derby workout you have 46 qualifiers who compiled a record of 8-3-2.

Keep a close eye on horses who have worked two bullets since their last prep race. In the 12 years only 13 horses have done so and 4 of them were winners and one more hit the exacta

It is not absolutely essential that the bullet work come over the Churchill Downs strip. Funny Cide and Giacomo were flying in the mornings but both at their regular homes bases and not at CD itself. The record of horses with a bullet at CD is very solid (56-7-6-3) but it’s not essential. The horses form is more important than familiarity with the track.

One subset I’d keep a very close eye on are those horses who work a bullet in their final Derby tune-up if a bullet is out of the ordinary for them. A lot of horses work fast, and many good horses work fast regularly. But over the last 12 years there has been only 4 horses who fired a bullet in their last Derby workout without having worked a bullet in any of their previous 6 works. Barbaro and Grindstone were two of them. A horse who suddenly finds themselves turning in the best works of their lives often outperform.

All in all a bullet work is not necessarily something I would take a horse because of, but I may drop a horse because of the lack of one. Bullets don’t give hope to the hopeless. Going Wild, Ten Cents A Shine, Supah Blitz and Hal’s Hope all worked bullets at Churchill. But if a horse is fast and in seemingly good form in his races like Brother Derek. It is a bit of a worry when they fail to work quickly following their last prep.

Lately I’ve been taking a hard look at final fractions for Kentucky Derby contenders. The Derby is the kind of race where basically every angle has been explored. Some angles mean something and some don’t. Closing fractions are undoubtedly important because they give clues as to how a horse is handling the distance and if they might be fit enough to stretch out further. Closing fractions have been a bit of an unexplored area for me since there are a ton of problems with calculating them.

I have long surmised that closing fractions, particularly the last 1/8, 1/4 and 3/8th’s, could be an important Derby factor but it is quite difficult to get reliable data or back data of any kind. Calculating the final fractions can be extremely tricky for any horse who did not lead wire to wire. The whole debate over how a beaten length translates into time on the clock has never really been settled. People use a rule of thumb (1 length=0.20 seconds) but that is not always accurate, and in fact I discovered that for the average pace of a 9f race it is never accurate.

What a length translates into over a certain distance all depends on the speed the individuals are covering the distance in. For instance if I were to race someone on foot over 100 yards and beat them by 5 feet while sprinting the time differential between us would be narrow. But if we had a race at walking speed over the same distance and I again won by 5 feet the difference on the clock would be substantially larger. Since we don’t have Trakus data for each horse which would calculate the specific times for each one at every interval we have to use different methods of identifying what a beaten length equals.

I decided to calculate the time:beaten lengths ratio for every individual race to ensure as much accuracy as possible. I found that at 9f a length is usually equal to 0.14-0.16 seconds. I then went back and calculated the closing splits for every 9f Derby prep race that was run from 1996 to the present.

Many people have calculated the closing splits achieved by Derby winners over the last 10-15 years but the data is difficult to evaluate unless you’re able to see what the winners opposition looked like in terms of their closing splits.

A general rule of thumb has been that a potential Derby winner needs to run their last 1/8th in :13.0 or less, their last 1/4 in :25.4 or less and their last 3/8th’s in :38.0 or less. Those have been decent benchmarks for the last decade but as most of you know I am generally opposed to arbitrary lines.

In virtually every area I prefer averaging because I feel it is more relevant to the specific race. Much like my theory regarding the Beyer “fast enough” line, it is only important to be fast enough to beat THIS field not all the Derby fields assembled over the last decade.

So I decided to calculate and average all the closing splits in 9f races of every Derby contender from 1996 to the present to see if the winners generally conformed with the field average and how those that didn’t fared. If a horse did not have a race at 9f then no closing splits were calculated and that horse was excluded from the stat. In a case such as Charismatic, who ran his last prep at 8.5f, you take the splits from the last time they ran at 9f. In Charismatic’s case that was the Santa Anita Derby. I also excluded all horses who were beaten by more than 20 lengths in their 9f start. The fractions of a horse who is virtually eased are not relevant when attempting to determine how fast a horse must be able to close to beat the rest of the group.

I found that the averages often fell in line with the general rules of thumb but there was always a variance. For the last 1/8th the necessary closing split varied from :12.7-:13.5. Some races were simply slower, or rather they contained slower horses.

There were 214 starters in the Kentucky Derby from 1996 to the present. 20 of those starters did not have a race at 9f that could be calculated. Of the 194 remaining starters I found that 109 of them failed to run faster than the average closing split for their field in either the last 1/8th, 1/4 or 3/8th’s. Their cumulative Derby record is an astonishing 109-1-7-5. That means the other 85 horses who did run closing splits faster than the average for their field went 85-11-5-7 in the Derby.

Needless to say it appears to be an extremely important factor and it could have a real impact this year. The field is not set so it’s impossible to tell what the averages will be but as now they look like this.

1/8 = :12.8
1/4 = :25.1
3/8 = :37.5

Based on those averages Big Brown, Adriano, Anak Nakal, Cool Coal Man, Court Vision, Denis Of Cork, Gayego, Smooth Air, Tale Of Ekati and Z Fortune will find it difficult to close out this year’s Derby. They would still have to be thought of as having an excellent chance of hitting the frame, since there was hardly a year when at least one of the top three did not qualify with this angle. But in terms of a winning chance all of these horses could be up against it.

Derby Top 10 - April 22nd

1. Colonel John (1)
2. Big Brown (2)
3. Smooth Air (3)
4. Eight Belles (4)
5. Z Fortune (5)
6. Court Vision (7)
7. Pyro (9)
8. Monba (10)
9. Cowboy Cal (new)
10. Bob Black Jack (new)

This will be my final Derby Top 10 for this year and what a year it’s been. There has been uncertainty for much of the spring and that won’t be cleared up until the horses cross the line in the Derby. It might be as simple as Big Brown being better than everyone else. His trainer certainly thinks he is and now with War Pass and Massive Drama out of the race the pace edge may fall to him. Or perhaps it is as simple as rooting for the most well rounded Derby contender, which is certainly Colonel John. He has the look of a Derby winner, physically, mentally and his running style. It’s too bad the surface question is still looming. I think the surface is also to blame for his low speed figures. Outside the top two I think it is anyone’s race. I can certainly envision a scenario where both Colonel John and Big Brown are defeated although I believe that at least one of them if not both will be in the frame. Smooth Air is the first on the list of logical alternatives. He is not a brilliant horse but I adore the way he is training. Forget what breeding he may or may not have. He is virtually the only horse in the race who is having significant stamina built into him. Some horses will rely on their pedigree to get the extra ground. Smooth Air will be relying on the fitness he’s recieved from his workouts. Eight Belles is a bit of a mystery horse but I have to rank her this high because of what she may be capable of. If the form she has showed against fillies translates in the Derby she will be a very tough horse to beat and might even be key to defeating Big Brown. The longer he stays on the lead the more courageous he’ll get. Eight Belles has the speed to attack him earlier than most. Z Fortune is a horse I thought the world of early in the year but cooled on after he flopped in the Rebel. His Arkansas Derby won me back to his side though and I expect a huge run from him. I think he’s a horse I’ll use all over my tickets. Court Vision may be a slow plodder who even failed to make up significant ground on the Wood horses who were crawling home but he does have a touch of class about him and I fear any horse who really wakes up in their works, especially after arriving at Churchill. He’s better as a play underneath but he does have a great chance of at least hitting the superfecta. Pyro is a total question mark. I won’t use him on top and I may not use him at all but you have to respect what he was able to do on the dirt. I don’t like the fact that he didn’t get much from his last prep but I do think that a return to his best beats at least half this field. Monba is another horse I’d use underneath if the price was right. I suspect he prefers Polytrack despite a prior win over the surface. Cowboy Cal has been added to the Derby Top 10 after spending the year on the radar list. I’m not convinced he’s a dirt horse but I do fear the “other Pletcher” angle with him. In fact if Big Brown is to win the Derby I suspect Cowboy Cal will be in the frame. Big Brown has his best chance of winning if the pace is moderate and Cowboy Cal is the kind of horse who would just love to clip off a steady pace. He’ll keep trying all the way to the line. While I think he isn’t quite good enough to win he is a real exacta threat if things go his way. Bob Black Jack is the final horse in my top 10. There are few things to dislike about him, most notably the fact that in both of his route races he got passed in the lane. I’m also not hyped over the fact that his best lifetime performance to date came in a 6f race. But you have to acknowledge that Californians have been doing exceptionally well when travelling out of state. I like that he rated well in his last race and was able to finish rather quickly. He doesn’t need to love the distance to hit the frame and I think he is the kind of horse who will either run way above expectations or run near last. I prefer him to Gayego among the Californians. I think Gayego has run his best race. If you’d like to read the entire Top 10 from this year you can do that by clicking here.

Dropped: Atoned (6), Tomcito (8)

Weekend Overview: Californian three year-olds strike yet again at Behindatthebar gets up late to deny Samba Rooster a mimic encore performance of Sinister Minister. Rite Moment stayed hot with her 5th win of the year and Panty Raid was just about the only Pletcher horse to lose over the weekend as the favorites all fell once again in the Polytrack stakes races.

Performance of the Week: It’s not often I give the performance of the week to a horse that didn’t win but that’s exactly what I’m doing this week. Samba Rooster put in a phenomenal effort in the Lexington. Polytrack never favors run off speed and although a horse can win wire to wire at Keeneland they do so by setting moderate to slow fractions. Samba Rooster clicked off fractions of :22.78 :45.21 and 1:09.48 and yet no one got to him until the last 5o yards. He held off everyone but the winner. It was his first race for Bob Baffert and look for this one to develop quickly over his next few starts. I’d be buying Haskell future bets on him right now. He obviously handles the All Weather tracks but speed is so much more dangerous on dirt.

Race of the Week: The Federico Tesio stakes is no longer a credible Derby trial race but it did produce both a sparkling performance by the winner and a heart stopping stretch duel. Icabad Crane may just be a 3yo of note as he bounced back from his first career defeat to out duel Mint Lane for the win. Icabad Crane got pinched back at the start and settled near the back but showed a very handy turn of foot to make a few different moves and pick his way through traffic. Mint Lane was not an easy horse to get past after going a half in :48.49 but the Motion trainee Icabad Crane fought him off and seemed to be holding him safely at the line despite the tight margin. Icabad Crane is now undefeated in 3 starts on the dirt, his only career loss was a 3rd place finish in the Rushaway.

Flop of the Weekend: All the horses with Derby aspirations that wound up in the Lexington. That means Atoned, Tomcito and Salute the Sarge. All of them lost their chance at the Derby. Salute The Sarge could still enter if his connections are deluded but he clearly showed that he doesn’t belong. Atoned and Tomcito had no excuses as the pace seemed to set up well for them. They simply didn’t run a step.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Female Sprinters made the biggest splash this week as Rite Moment took her record to 6-5-1-0 on the year with a win in the Bed O’Roses. All her races have come at Aqueduct and she has not faced Sugar Swirl yet but she has accomplished enough to be the top ranked Female Sprinter and the 5th best horse in the nation. Another top sprinting filly is Danceroftherealm. She has not won a graded stakes this year but that is because there are almost none for Turf sprinting females. She is undefeated in 3 starts this year and is now the 3rd ranked Female Turf horse and the 4th ranked Female Sprinter.

Tip O’the Cap: It’s hard to see Todd Pletcher as underrated but when it comes to the Triple Crown trail many regard him in a somewhat derisive manner. Up until two weeks ago he had no one for the Derby. Now he’s got 3 horses coming in off of hot performances. I don’t know if any of his charges are actually up to winning a Triple Crown race but keep a close eye on the entrant of his that the public dismisses.

KC Handicapping: Another poor week of handicapping although I managed to keep my losses down by only selecting one horse. Got beaten again by the “other Pletcher“. It’s a pretty potent angle. As far as Keeneland went it was my best week of the meet in that I only lost -7%. You know you’re in a slump when you celebrate small losses.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 1(1)-0-0-0 (-$2.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 502(249)-91-87-71 (-$80.40 -8.01% ROI)

Lexington Stakes
The Kentucky Derby is on everyones mind this week. This is the last meaningful prep race for the Derby and even the workouts from Derby contenders seem to eclipse the other stakes races being run this weekend in terms of importance. I looked hard but did not find many races to throw my weight behind. It could have to do with the slump I’m in, I’m just not feeling it. Or it could be that there is a lack of good, playable stakes races this weekend. At any rate the only race where I have a strong opinion is the Lexington. Any horse who wins this will likely be sent to the Derby but realistically Atoned and Tomcito are the only horses with a chance at doing the double. Atoned is a play I’ve been stalking for a while now. He clearly has ability. Four straight second place finishes in stakes races can attest to that. But he’s had problems closing out a race, which is another thing that his four second place finishes attest to. He’s good enough to win but he’s not winning, sounds like something mental. As odd as it sounds a bad race is often just what a horse needs to wake them up. He did not run all that poorly in the Illinois Derby but he was a little flat on a track that was impossible to close into. He came back with a sharp move on this surface and although he has never raced on Polytrack I think his form may be too much for the opposition. This is still a legitimate Derby horse and I think he’s Pletchers best. The main danger will come from Tomcito. He was flat footed in the Florida Derby but he needed that race. He worked sharply from the gate and should show more speed. I think he’ll still be closing from well back though and he may just run out of ground. That would still set him up well for the Derby. A bit of a longshot that I like to juice up the exotics is St. Joe. His connections took the Blue Grass last year with Dominican and this speedster loves the Polytrack. He got a 97 BSF taking an allowance field wire to wire on a day when no one was winning on the front end. 97 is just about the highest number of the meet. He has failed in all his stretchout attempts but Polytrack may be the key. Use him underneath only though as I don’t see him being able to hold off Atoned or Tomcito. Salute the Sarge, Racecar Rhapsody and Riley Tucker are the only other horses I’d really look at. I’m not strongly in favor of any of them but they would not be a shock. Still I think Atoned will sit a nice stalking trip and make a winning move around the far turn and at last have the fortitude to stay in front all the way to the line.

Atoned