Derby Top 10 - March 18th

1. Pyro (2)
2. Denis Of Cork (5)
3. Cool Coal Man (4)
4. Colonel John (6)
5. Elysium Fields (7)
6. Sierra Sunset (new)
7. Georgie Boy (10)
8. El Gato Malo (8)
9. Court Vision (9)
10. War Pass (1)

Ever since this Derby list began I’ve been removing horses from the Top 10 and Radar every week. I removed some for injury but the vast majority of my cuts were due to under performance. This past weekend was almost enough to make me rethink my policy however because I have been operating under the assumption that some of the horses from this crop were genuinely good and that in order to win all the others would have to measure up. It is becoming more and more apparent to me that any horse from this group should be able to win the Derby even the lamentably slow Big Truck. The Tampa Bay Derby was quite a shocking race, War Pass was soundly defeated and his only saving grace was that his performance was so bad it simply cannot be an accurate reflection of what he is capable of. In terms of ability I think he is just as capable of wiring the Wood and Derby as he ever was but the reason I dropped him to 10th place on my list is that I now have serious doubts about his fitness and even mental toughness. Horses can run a terrible prep this close to the Derby and still recover but the fact is most don’t. There is usually a reason why they run so badly and with time as short as it is that reason may not be cleared up in time to matter. Big Truck and Atoned are both on the radar, neither makes it into the top 10. Despite the fact that I’m trying to embrace the notion that any horse can win this Derby I’m still put off by the fact that the Tampa Bay Derby represents the best career effort by both of these horses and it is still well short of what horses like Pyro, Colonel John and Denis Of Cork seem capable of. I like Atoned far better than Big Truck because I think he has more upside. The one downside to him though is that he seems to be a loser. There is really no excuse for being second 4 times in a row, especially when 3 of the races were photo finishes. That indicates a mental problem, I wish Atoned had more time between now and the Derby to work it out. Part of me secretly wants to see him run a bad one next time out. That is often how these habitual losers break out of their funk. Then they become a great candidate at better odds next time out. Sierra Sunset makes a very high debut on the Top 10 list, checking in at #6. I thought his performance in the Rebel was just about as good as any two turn performance by a 3yo this year aside from possibly the Southwest where he ran a similar race but was easily beaten by Denis Of Cork who moved to second on the list despite not having run. Sierra Sunset, Liberty Bull and Isabull all came out of that race to run very well and it leads one to believe that Denis Of Cork may just be the big horse on the trail. He’ll still be terribly short on seasoning but that be overcome if he is good enough and the competition is bad enough. Z Fortune gets dropped from the list entirely. I still like him as a horse but he ran well below expectations and I don’t think he’ll be rebounding in a big way next time out. Prior to the San Felipe I compared Georgie Boy to Came Home and the comparison looks more than apt at this stage. I think Georgie Boy has a definite ceiling distance wise and he won’t get 10f. The San Felipe only further confirmed that notion. Why is he on my top 10? Because I think class will count for something in a crop that is this slow and Georgie Boy definitely has class. Is he likely to win the Derby? No, but there certainly aren’t 10 more likely candidates out there. Personally I could only find 6. The top 10 list is unofficially starting to split between horses that I think are likely winners and horses that I consider as more in the money shots. Realistically after the final preps are run I’m not still going to believe that a full 10 horses are likely Derby winners so an unofficial line gets drawn. Right now I’d put the line under Sierra Sunset, all the horses below him are not as likely to win but are more than capable to hit the frame. Eight Belles has moved to the top of the radar list with the news that Rick Porter is considering nominating her to the Triple Crown. Given the quality of this years group of fillies relative to the colts I think she would have a decent shot but I’ll wait until she is officially nominated before I decide to put her in the Top 10.

On the radar: Eight Belles, Visionaire, Big Brown, Atoned, Cowboy Cal, Tomcito, Big Truck

Dropped: Z Fortune (3), Shediak

Weekend Overview: Big favorites War Pass and Z Fortune suffer heartbreak as some old favorites Dreaming Of Anna and Kodiak Kowboy looked as good as ever. New shooters Georgie Boy and Eight Belles also continued their hot run of form. Stream Of Gold also managed to end his losing streak and the likeable Gottcha Gold returned to form with a nice win at Gulfstream in the Skip Away.

Performance of the Week: I love the fact that Dreaming Of Anna is still on track. The temptation to retire her after a somewhat lackluster 3yo season had to be there but Anna seems to be better than ever. The Hillsborough looked like ti was going to be a rematch between Anna and Lear’s Princess. They locked horns just a few weeks earlier and Dreaming of Anna was all out to hold her off by a nose. With a longer distance some thought the tables would be turned but Dreaming Of Anna was unbelievable. She controlled the pace and drew off powerfully once the real running began. Lear’s Princess may have flopped but she was not going to get to Anna even with a career best effort.

Race of the Week: Stream of Gold had lost 13 straight races over a period of nearly three years going into the Mac Diarmida Handicap so naturally all throughout the stretch drive I supposed that he’d find some way to lose this race as well. But he finally broke through in heart stopping and impressive course record breaking style. Godolphin’s True Cause made a massive run at him in the final furlong but Stream Of Gold simply would not yield. Cougar Bay was a pretty stubborn customer as well. All in all a race well worth watching.

Flop of the Weekend: Can we have a drum roll please? This weekend’s biggest flop was….you guessed it. War Pass. The excuses will continue to roll in for a few more days at least but the bare facts are that despite getting bumped back at the start War Pass should have been able to beat this relatively weak field. He should have at least been able to beat someone in this relatively weak field. The race was too bad to be a true reflection of his ability but that won’t save him from a week of disgrace.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Heatseeker remains the top ranked horse in the nation for the third week in a row. His next start is uncertain at this stage but he is likely to remain atop the standings until the G-1 Triple Crown preps are run. Georgie Boy has taken over as the top Three year Old Male but only just over Pyro. Eight Belles moved into 4th in the Three Year Old Female division. The lack of Graded Stakes on her resume unfortunately detracts from her brilliance. Dreaming of Anna moves into second spot in the Turf Female division with her stirring win in the Hillsborough.

Tip O’the Cap: I’ve decided to give this nod to Kathy Walsh for her handling of Georgie Boy. She made the decision last year to stop on him when he was at the top of his game and it seems to be paying off now as he’s been winning well and still looks quite fresh. She obviously knows her horse and she’s doing very well with him.

KC Handicapping: My handicapping has hit a real dry spell, 7 picks over 6 races and no winners. I did manage to get 3 second place finishers. I’ll try to focus a bit more on my picks this week so I can once again provide some quality advice. Ready For Fortune ran a decent race but when Throbbin Heart missed the break it left Carolyn’s Cat in control once again and she never gave up that control. Sierra Sunset ran the race I hoped for Z Fortune and King Silver’s Son did basically exactly what I figured he would unfortunately he got me nothing.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 7(6)-0-3-0 (-$14.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 54(40)-11-11-7 (-$14.60 -13.52% ROI)

Cicada Stakes
A short field is not usually the best place to go to find good value but I’m hoping that the parity among this group will at least make a decent return possible. There are 6 entrants and all 6 could win. I think two of them (Psycho DJ, True Intentions) are unlikely to win on account of being too slow but True Intentions is coupled in the betting with my choice. As in many sprint races this one is loaded with speed. Dill Or No Dill and Carolyn’s Cat have traded punches on the front end and each one is vowing to be in front again. I suspect that Throbbin Heart may actually be faster than both of them but the pace should be lively. Especially considering that Contessa trains Dill or No Dill and has the best stalker in the field. Throbbin Heart is the main danger in my mind but I really like Ready For Fortune to sweep past them all in the final furlong. She has already shown marked improvement since coming to Contessa’s barn but I suspect a big factor has also been switching to dirt. The entry mate will shorten her price ever so slightly but I’m hoping for something around 5/2. The three speed horses should all be around that price as well, bettors will be wary that although an abundance of speed sometimes creates a pace meltdown quite often in sprints the speed of the speed simply takes the race by the throat and never looks back.

Ready For Fortune

Rebel Stakes
Of all the Derby preps this weekend I think the Rebel is the deepest and has the possibility of producing the most Derby horses. Sierra Sunset, Sacred Journey, Golden Yank, King Silver’s Son, Anak Nakal and Z Fortune could all have a Derby future if they run well. However the road will end here for most of them. I have never been a fan of Anak Nakal and I think he’ll flop yet again in this sport he simply is not very good in my opinion. Golden Yank is a horse I’d cheer for but not bet. It’s hard to argue with his results but he’s just had 6 works this year and he does not appear to be sharpened. I think he’d be doing fabulous if he even hits the frame. The talent might be there but I don’t think he’s ready. That leaves me with 4 real candidates for the win spot. Z Fortune is the clear and obvious horse to beat. I personally rank him as the #3 Derby contender in the nation. He’s got good tactical speed and a decent turn of foot. He is on the cusp of either becoming a real viable Derby horse or just an average pretender. His works since the Risen Star have actually been better than Pyro’s. I’d love to see a powerful performance in this race that would indicate he’s up possibly challenging War Pass and Pyro but with an outside post and just mediocre speed figures he is not unbeatable if he fails to improve. Sacred Journey is an interesting horse not only for this race but for the Triple Crown Trail overall. There is no one out there as fast as War Pass right now, in fact most of the other contenders don’t have any speed at all. This horse does, in fact he has some pretty crazy speed but what I love about him is the fact that he did not completely capitulate in the Southwest. The chart called him unrateable as he blazed through the early part of the Southwest. the fact that he was beaten is not a surprise but he did very well in my opinion to hang on for third. Since that race he’s just had one slow work and I can imagine that Stewart has been galloping him slowly in an effort to tone him down a bit. If it works this horse is live to wire the field. there are a few others who might challenge him early but at the same time not many will want to hook him if he’s going to run off. The fear of getting burned by him might actually help him to control a moderate pace. Seirra Sunset is a contender but the more I look at him the more I see a poor man’s version of Z Fortune. Anything he can do the Asmussen grey can do better. Asmussen has another grey in this race though that might turn into the wiseguy selection. King Silver’s Son has been a workmate for Z Fortune and he did very well against him. He always had talent but struggled with the mental side of winning. With horses who cannot seem to win but run well consistently I usually like to see two things to break up the trend. #1: A bad race (which he had at Churchill) #2: A layoff (which he got after his bad race). He came back and put all those memories behind him with a strong rally at the Fair Grounds. Now is the time to get on board. He’s a one run closer which is a bit of a concern but I’m actually expecting an all Asmussen exacta with the two grey’s deciding the spoils between them.

Z Fortune
King Silver’s Son

San Felipe Stakes
This race has a ton of variables in it just two horses, both longshots, have ever won a main track race around two turns. All 4 of the favorites have never even tried two turns. This emboldens me a bit to take a shot with a new shooter. Shediak was a very nice juvenile in Europe last term. He won at first asking and then went straight into stakes company. Although he didn’t manage to win he did acquit himself very well, especially in the G-1 Jean-Luc Lagardere. He was extremely rank that day and fought his rider for the first half mile. It looked as though he’d fade into the pack but he actually produced a nice turn of foot and stayed on stubbornly. He is bred to run all day long and although Selkirk does not produce dirt horses this isn’t dirt. He has worked extremely well on the surface since coming here and O’Neill is as good as any with a 3yo. I think that unlike Georgie Boy, Gayego and Bob Black Jack he is sure to stay the distance. He has already shown the ability to be close to the pace and he has a nice turn of foot. The one question mark with him is why the Aga Khan was willing to sell him. He looked like he had a nice future but perhaps bleeding was an issue. I’m opposing Bob Black Jack for sure, I don’t think he stays at all. Gayego will likely run well but I think he’s a cut below Georgie Boy. Georgie Boy strikes me as a horse with a ceiling, stamina wise. But he reminds me very much of Came Home in the respect that despite a suspected lack of stamina he’s got enough class to win races like this. If Shediak does not produce something special this race will be won by the solid Georgie Boy.

Shediak

I’m not one that likes to get down on horses. I think one of the worst things about racing fans is their inability to appreciate the wonderful things that are transpiring right in front of them.

No great horses since Spectacular Bid? Rubbish, we’re simply not appreciating some of the greatness we’re seeing.

That being said I do think it beneficial from a handicapping perspective to take stock and honestly evaluate quality. Why? Because it will come in handy when you’re looking for horses who “can” or “can’t” win the Derby. It will also come in handy once the divisions start competing against each other.

Thus far it has to be said that the 3yo crop is quite slow. It is the first time since I’ve been tracking the Derby Trail that not a single triple digit Beyer Speed Figure was recorded in a two turn recognized prep race. In fact there have been no triple digit Beyers recorded by a three year old male in any two turn races at all. These are the five fastest two turn prep races according to Beyer so far this year.

El Gato Malo - 99 (San Rafael)
Cool Coal Man - 98 (Fountain Of Youth)
Visionaire - 98 (Gotham)
Denis Of Cork - 96 (Southwest)
Nikki’sgoldensteed - 96 (Turf Paradise Derby)

Now lets compare that top 5 lists with the top 5 fastest preps run up to this point in previous years.

2007
Summer Doldrums - 106 (Whirlaway)
Circular Quay - 102 (Louisiana Derby)
Ravel - 102 (Sham)
Great Hunter - 101 (Bob Lewis)
Teuflesberg - 100 (Southwest)

2006
Brother Derek - 107 (San Rafael)
Lawyer Ron - 106 (Risen Star)
Achilles Of Troy - 104 (Count Fleet)
Achilles Of Troy - 103 (Whirlaway)
Brother Derek - 102 (Santa Catalina)
Bob And John - 102 (Sham)
Sweetnorthernsaint - 102 (Miracle Wood)

2005
High Limit - 105 (Lousiana Derby)
Going Wild - 100 (Sham)
High Fly - 100 (Aventura)
High Fly - 99 (Fountain Of Youth)
Closing Argument - 98 (Holy Bull)

2004
Read The Footnotes - 113 (Fountain Of Youth)
Second Of June - 108 (Holy Bull)
Imperialism - 104 (San Rafael)
Wimbledon - 101 (Louisiana Derby)
St Averil - 100 (Santa Catalina)

In only one case (2005) did we not have more than five triple digit Beyers earned in two turn prep races at this point. This year we have none, zero, zilch, nada. This Kentucky Derby Trail is in desperate need of some brilliance.

However something I had not noticed until I wrote this post was the fact that absent from these top 5 lists are all the previous years Derby winners. In fact among the 19 horses listed who were supposedly the fastest 3yo’s from January to mid march only 2 of them (Closing Argument, Imperialism) even hit the frame on Derby day.

Not sure if I’m willing to draw any conclusions on that but it is quite interesting.

Derby Top 10 - March 11th

1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (2)
3. Z Fortune (3)
4. Cool Coal Man (4)
5. Denis Of Cork (5)
6. Colonel John (6)
7. Elysium Fields (7)
8. El Gato Malo (8)
9. Court Vision (9)
10. Georgie Boy (new)

The more I see this crop the more I wonder if it is all simply pointing to the fact that War Pass or an unknown like Tomcito or Big Brown will be the top horse. The Louisiana Derby was a fine race but realistically it was more reminiscent of Fifty Stars than Peace Rules. Pyro was admirably professional and I did love the way he was closer to the pace. But the pace was on the slow side again and the race itself wound up being slow. Tale of Ekati, Majestic Warrior and J Be K all put nails in their coffins as Derby contenders. It simply won’t happen for any of those three. Pyro, while consistent and a nice horse to watch visually is far from convincing when you look at the clock. War Pass is fast in every facet and Pyro will need to run fast in order to beat him. So far he has not even made it back to the level he was at as a 2yo. He still has one more chance of course in the Blue Grass and he remains second because of his accomplishments but he has a greater chance of slipping down the list than he has of going up. Horses like Denis of Cork, Z Fortune and Elysium Fields may all get past him before his next prep. None of the other horses in the Louisiana Derby have a Derby future. The Gotham was a bit of a bizarre race in that we were unable to watch the majority of it. Visual impressions are hard to glean. What we do know is that Texas Wildcatter looked home free at the 1/16th pole but Visionaire rallied strongly to deny him. It was not a big enough effort to put Visionaire in the Top 10 because my feeling is that the race was not all that strong and that Visionaire himself is more the type to finish second or third behind a good horse. But with the way contenders have been dropping off this year he may well be in the Top 10 before too long. Big Brown and Hey Byrn made some noise with nice allowance wins but Hey Byrn is not on my watch list at all and Big Brown is just on the radar. The reality is that I’m not sure Hey Byrn is all that great and Big Brown is terribly inexperienced. He is monstrously talented, perhaps more so than any horse aside from War Pass and Pyro but experience is a big factor and so is seasoning. As it stands he’ll enter the Derby with just one prep around two turns. For me that is too big of a negative to ignore. He has also been struggling with foot problems so even with an explosive victory in the Florida Derby I’m going to be cautious. The crop is almost crying out for a big performance from new shooters like Tomcito, Shediak or Big Brown. Otherwise it is looking more and more like a War Pass walkover. His questionable stamina may not ever factor into the equation if none of the others are fast enough to get near him.

On the radar: Visionaire, Big Brown, Atoned, Cowboy Cal, Shediak, Tomcito

Dropped: Tale Of Ekati (10), J Be K, Giant Moon

#7 Texas Wildcatter is my selection in a mild upset.  The Pletcher trainee finished strong in his last two going this distance and improved in both.  He is training very sharply for this and looks ready to step it up.

#1 Giant Moon is the horse to beat off a perfect 4-for-4 record, with two of them on this track.  He has never won easily so don’t expect that here, but he has had a knack for getting that nose on the wire first.  His toughest test to date.

#3 Roman Emperor has developed quite a nice Beyers profile coming into this race as he has improved in every single start of his career.  The son of Empkire Maker started off with a modest 65, then progressed to 76, 82, 87, and finally 93 in his last.  If that line of progression contintues, he could very well win this.

 #10 Visionaire was a pretty decent 3rd to Pyro last out, but still can’t be too crazy about his closing fractions considering the pace he was running just off of.  This field looks easier on paper, and that could make all the difference. 

$5 trifecta box 1-3-7-10 ($60)

Of the rest, #2 Laysh Laysh Laysh earned a lofty 96 Beyer last time, and Saratoga Russel earned a 94, but I feel both will find things tougher at this distance.  Of the two, Saratoga Russell looks the more dangerous as the Theatrical on the dam’s side adds some stamina.   #9 Ling Ling Qi got a 91 Beyer last time but will be facing tougher and having to go longer, often a deadly combination. 

Louisiana Derby

#3 Pyro is the horse to beat with his late kick powering him past the rest of the field.

 #9 Majestic Warrior is the wild-card in the race.  He looked like a potential Derby horse in the Hopeful then crashed and burned in the Champagne and has been on the sidelines since.  He has the pedigree to go a distance, and has been working well.  Dangerous.

#2 My Pal Charlie may be overlooked in the race and is a nice longshot who could pump up the exacta or trifecta return.  He looks to be stalking #4 J Be K early but might be better than his faster opponent since he’s run close to this distance in his last two and done well, and J Be K’s pedigree isn’t good for going a distance.  I would think a wet or off track might help his chances of stealing it. 

#7 Blackberry Road was steadied in the backstretch and blocked in the stretch with Borel aboard last time, and the connections wisely make a switch to Albarado.  This horse needs to be taken wide so he can get a clear run. 

#5 Unbridled Vicar didn’t have an ideal trip last time either, and was able to pass Blackberry Road in the final strides, even after that one finally got clear.  This horse tries very hard, and is ever so slowly improving his Beyers,  and therefore will probably land somewhere in the superfecta or trifecta. 

#6 Tale of Ekati ran well for the first half of the BC Juvy, then backed up late.  I don’t think he wants to go a distance, but he certainly has the pedigree from the dam’s side.  I could see him getting a piece but that’s about it.

#8 Yankee Bravo might be a sleeper here, at least to hit the board.  He has finished strongly in his races here, the last one this same distance.  His Beyers aren’t much, but they were earned on turf and synthetic, so I’d look for his number to jump up here.  He’s 3 for 3 and should have no problem getting the distance.  It might be wise to throw him into 2nd or 3rd on a few tris.

#1 Stevil seems to be a hopeless longshot, he’s won a maiden race and since lost three straight allowance races.  He was 2nd to Visionaire in one of them, but was beaten more than five lengths.  he also nearly beat Unbridled Vicar in one of them, so there’s a glimmer of hope.

$2 super 3,9 with 3,9 with 2,5,7,8 with 2,5,7,8 ($48)

$2 tri 3 with 2,5,7,8 with 2,5,7,8 ($24)

$2 tri 3 with 4,6 with 2,5,7,8,9 ($20)

$2 tri 4-3-7, 7-3-5 ($4) 

Weekend Overview: I’ve always got my eye out for plays that I see as being good value but good value is one of those things that can only be accurately assessed after the race is over. There are however conditions that are optimal for getting value and one of the best is when you have a race with a false favorite or a favorite who looks invincible to the public eye. False favorites (like Saarland in the Derby) are easier to oppose with confidence, seemingly unbeatable horses take a lot more guts to play against but in the final reckoning they do not necessarily win at a higher percentage. Odds on favorites still lose more than they win. That’s a good thing to keep in mind this Saturday at the Fair Grounds. 5 of the 6 stakes races have heavy favorites who look tough to beat. Euroears, Grasshopper, Daytona, Indian Blessing and Pyro all look nearly airtight on paper but you can almost be assured that those 5 will not sweep. The odds of all of them winning are actually pretty poor, despite what the multi-race exotics would pay for that sequence. I would venture to guess that at least two or three of these horses will be denied the winners circle. The trick is finding the horses who can turn the trick.

Duncan F. Kenner Stakes
Euroears is the big horse in this race and in 5 career starts he has never looked like losing. Turf and dirt he’s been solid on both and it would be not shock to see him do it again here. In fact if you could get about 2/1 on him he’d be a great play but two days out I’m operating under the assumption that Euroears will be 7-5 or less. The one vulnerability I can see is that all of Euroears training recently has been focused at getting him to settle. They’re trying to take the speed out of him so that he can stretch-out. There is a ton of money to be made staying at 6f so I wonder why they’re looking at changing his game but for us it might create an opportunity. Semaphore Man is the fastest gate horse in the race and it’s clear from his Past Performances that when he gets in front he’s very hard to beat. He lost to Euroears two starts back but that was off of a very long layoff. He never got to the front that day but he got a lot out of the race and subsequently dominated the King Cotton, taking it all the way on the lead. On his best day Semaphore Man is a formidable foe and he just may give this field the slip. He has been working extremely quickly in the mornings and I expect him to get to the front and not look back. Let’s not forget that he’s got some great back class. He almost took out Bordonaro in his heyday. He was not beaten by much when facing Diabolical and Talent Search. Euroears is no easy scalp but Semaphore Man looks like he’s got a lot of things in his favor.

Semaphore Man

Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial Handicap
Daytona is in a really rich vein of form. 4 straight stakes wins and it has to be said that there is a real lack of quality lined up trying to prevent his 5th in a row. In my opinion only four horses could be good enough on their best day - Twilight Meteor, Proudinsky, Brilliant and Fracas. Fracas is a complete wild card, Tagg is very savvy with his Turf horses but he’s essentially too much of an unknown to take a gamble on here. It’s really even quite a gamble to be predicting what kind of price you’ll get on him. The public will either love him and make him the second choice or they’ll ignore him and he be around 9/1. He’s not my kind of horse. Daytona has shipped across country twice now so perhaps a bit of weariness has crept in. It’s quite odd also that Smith has declined to ride him. He surely must be the best mount he’s got on his books. I think that someone will try to give Daytona a little pressure on the front end, giving him an easy lead seems to be conceding victory. A horse like Buffalo Man has shown some speed in the past and so has Jazz Quest. I think Jazz Quest is the horse who will challenge him, no sense in simply following him around the track again. Proudinsky is a horse who will hope that Dayonta gets some company but I don’t see him running better than second or third. He had a chance to get to him and couldn’t in the San Gabriel I expect him to run very much the same way. Brilliant really needs soft ground and if we do get some rain he’s the play and a very confident one indeed. He’s a quality horse on any ground but just a cut below these on firm. Twilight Meteor is really the horse I’m wanting to use against him. He’s one of the four (Twilight Meteor, Proudinsky, Brilliant, Fracas) who looks good enough and among those four I think he has the best combination going for him. He lost to Daytona once in thee Hollywood Derby but he had his head in the air for the first mile. He was extremely rank and also closer to the pace than I think he prefers. Twilight Meteor must be a frustrating horse to train because he is undoubtedly good but he has not translated that into wins as yet. Leparoux gets the mount for the first time and he is good at being patient and getting his mount to be patient as well. That bodes well for his chances here. I adored the way he came flying late in his last, Pletcher should have him ready to fire off the bench.

Twlight Meteor
Brilliant (Only if less than Firm)

Louisiana Derby
Some will consider Pyro the most solid win bet of the day. Maybe even more than Indian Blessing but I’ve never loved taking one run closers in back to back races. His last was brilliant but I really don’t think a repeat of that performance gets it done here. These are better horses and I’m sure some really good ones will be getting first run. Don’t get em wrong I’m not saying Pyro will lose, I’m just suggesting that he can lose. Traffic will also be a major concern. J Be K is a horse that any winner will have to pass because he is ridiculously fast and he will control the front end. I don’t like him to stay the course though, he could, if he happens to be far better than I think but I think he’ll give up the ghost in the lane. Pyro has not been in the habit of losing to inferior horses so I do think it will take a horse of class to beat him. Two such candidates are Majestic Warrior and Tale of Ekati. Majestic Warrior unlike Court Vision has been sharpened for this race by Mott. They are definitely trying to win this race but there are too many question marks about him for me. Sure he looked sensational at Saratoga but that race’s form really fell apart and he’s been away for a long time. Of the classy horses I much prefer Tale of Ekati. Not many have mentioned this but the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile has turned into a bit of a key race. War Pass, Pyro, Z Humor and Old Man Buck all won their next race and Overextended outdid his recent form when he came back to run second behind Colonel John. The record of horses returning from that race is 7-4-1-0 and all the next out losers were horses who were hopelessly beaten in the Juvenile and probably didn’t belong. Tale Of Ekati ran extremely well in the Juvenile to be 4th on a day where I thought his preparation left him short. It was a very tough ask of him at that stage and I love the way he responded. He’s got good tactical speed and a rapier turn of foot. I suspect we’ve never truly seen him at his best. He is the horse that Pyro will have to reel in and at 8.5 furlongs I don’t think stamina really comes into play at all. Tale of Ekati has been burning up the track in the mornings and I think he’s ready to run huge. He’s got a pace advantage on Pyro and he definitely has class and talent. I think he’s the one if any will beat Pyro.

Tale Of Ekati

Derby Top 10 - March 3rd

1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (2)
3. Z Fortune (4)
4. Cool Coal Man (5)
5. Denis Of Cork (8)
6. Colonel John (3)
7. Elysium Fields (9)
8. El Gato Malo (7)
9. Court Vision (10)
10. Tale Of Ekati (new)

The list narrows yet again as Into Mischief succumbs to injury and Alaazo drastically under performed. Into Mischief is not officially off the Derby trail but his preparation has been all but halted because of a minor foot ailment. He still might make the Santa Anita Derby but I’m not in love with any horses Derby chances if they’ve been having health issues all spring and only managed one prep around two turns. It’s unfortunate for Mandella because he’s one of the good guys. Speaking of the good guys things seem to be slipping away on Bill Mott as well. Z Humor has under performed, Court Vision ran below expectations, Riley Tucker was a complete bust and Alaazo now looks like he’ll go in a different direction. Majestic Warrior could still get Mott back on track with a nice race in the Louisiana Derby but he’s facing a very tough field off of a long layoff. The Sham Stakes was the only significant Derby prep to be run this last weekend and after having seen it I’m not sure how significant it will wind up being. I was not overly impressed with Colonel John or El Gato Malo. It was another prep with a slow pace and fast finish. In my estimation Colonel John was actually much better than El Gato Malo and has better prospects at a distance. Colonel John stalked the pace and moved to the front rather easily but then was drifting all over the track, still though it never appeared as if El Gato Malo was going to get him. Colonel John has the look of a stayer and hopefully he’ll get better in his next race, which should be a rematch with El Gato Malo. What worries me most with Colonel John is that he’s never run a really fast race and the fastest race he was involved in he lost. He has also never been on real dirt, but he has class and he is consistent, I’m not so much worried about the dirt issue. El Gato Malo might have had the toughest trip in the Sham but the reality is that Colonel John looked stronger in the last 100 yards and going further this quick little horse will struggle all the more. He is beginning to look like a miler type. So why is he still in the Derby Top 10? Well at this stage he is still talented and realistically there aren’t many horses in this crop that have as much upside as he does. I doubt he’ll stay the distance but he is definitely among the top best prospects to win. I also prefer his quickness to the slow plodding we saw from Court Vision last time out. Tale Of Ekati finds his way back into the Top 10 for the first time since February 12th, not because he’s done anything significant but because of injuries and under achievements from some of his peers. Tale Of Ekati gets his big test this weekend alongside Majestic Warrior in the Louisiana Derby. A top three finish is all he really needs to go on to the next step. A new horse was added to the radar with the news that he is likely for the San Felipe. Shediak is a reformed European who has yet to start in North America. As a 2yo he went 3-1-1-1 and managed to run third in a G-1. He was extremely rank through the first half of that race and I think it’s a testament to his ability that he still came with a run in the lane. I think he should have enough speed to stay with the American horses early and he’s bred to run for days. The one problem with him is that he does not have any dirt pedigree at all but that should not inhibit him at Santa Anita. If he turns out to be good he’ll be a wildcard on Derby day, maybe a wildcard is the only way to beat War Pass. Because more and more it looks as though most of this crop is simply not good enough.

On the radar: Georgie Boy, Atoned, J Be K, Giant Moon, Cowboy Cal, Shediak

Dropped: Into Mischief (6), Alaazo

Weekend Overview: So Heatseeker turns out to be more than a G-3 level horse. El Gato Malo narrowly loses his unbeaten tag to a stubborn Colonel John and Bsharpsonata remains tough to beat. These are just a few of the things we learned this week. In fact Bsharpsonata actually dominated Game Face with a very professional display in the Davona Dale. This little filly is all class and maybe way better than her figures suggest. Hey Byrn also looked very good when taking an allowance race over a decent field of 3yo’s but for me the weekend was all about Ever A Friend.

Performance of the Week: The Kilroe Mile was roundly expected to be the coming out party of War Monger. He had the credentials of a budding star but instead we saw the emergence of another top class miler. Ever A Friend was simply scintillating in the Kilroe. Ever A Friend is a horse I actually played a few times when he was in the Clement barn. He got my support in some minor events at Saratoga but he always seemed to be no more than a decent allowance type horse. That has changed in a big way since joining Mike Mitchell. He has been transformed into a Turf Mile machine. He turned in a Kip Deville level performance. You will not see many Turf Mile events won in a more brilliant fashion this year. He stalked a decent pace and like in his last race he shut off beautifully just off the speed. But unlike last time when he was carried extremely wide he was able to accelerate smoothly and power away. The field was not stellar but they looked like allowance horses in his wake. Put him on your watch lists and track him all the way to the BC Mile.

Race of the Week: The Gulfstream Park Handicap was short in numbers but it made up for it with a nice tight finish involving the top 3 contenders. The pace set by Kiss The Kid was modest but fair and when they all lined up at the top of the stretch you just knew it was going to be a barn burner. Sir Whimsey prevailed to notch nice back to back victories for the year while the Fairbanks team may consider themselves unlucky. In tight on the rail is never the place you want to be in a hard stretch drive. Kiss The Kid couldn’t match strides with the top two but he was far from done. He hung on quite well all the way to the line. If you haven’t seen it, watch it! You can do so by clicking on the Race of The Week headline.

Flop of the Weekend: Awesome Gem really should have done better in the Santa Anita Handicap. He ran pretty flatly from start to finish and if you couple this performance with his inability to win his prior start his BC Classic third place finish is looking more and more lucky. Not sure what the future holds for him but clearly he is not the heir apparent on the West Coast.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: We have a new overall #1. Heatseeker bursts to the head of the pack courtesy of his well timed move in the Santa Anita Handicap. Through the first three months of the season we’ve had 6 different horses ranked #1 overall. That will likely continue to fluctuate until May when hopefully the classiest horses have the accomplishments to match. Bsharpsonata becomes the top Three Year Old Female with her third stakes win of the campaign. Indian Blessing and Proud Spell may have something to say about that fairly soon but you have to be impressed with Bsharpsonata’s professionalism and versatility.

Tip O’the Cap: It is not often that I highlight another blog but I’ve spent a good deal of my morning reading through the archives of Ten Furlongs. It’s a fairly new blog but there is a wealth of information there regarding the Derby. My tip of the cap this week goes to the proprietor for the high quality content.

KC Handicapping: The week was slightly frustrating as I had some decent and generally accurate thoughts but things didn’t really work out in a way that returned me any profit. Go Between and Champs Elysees ran quite well but Heatseeker got the jump on both of them and had enough to last to the wire. The Game Face/Bsharpsonata exacta I suggested paid a decent $18.80 but it came in the reverse order that I was looking for so nothing returned unless you had the foresight to box it. There may not be any picks at all next week as I’m out of town for a family wedding.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 3(2)-0-2-1 (-$6.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 47(34)-11-8-7 (-$0.60 -0.64% ROI)