This week I will be betting a mythical $120 on the Florida Derby, one time using Beyers as my handicapping tool, and the other using BRIS numbers.

 Beyers

12-Big Brown-102

8-Elysium Fields-100

11-Face the Cat-97

4-Tomcito-95? (85-105)

9-Hey Byrn-93

1-Fierce Wind-91

6-Nistle Crunch-90

2-Smooth Air, 7-B B Frank-88

5-Cool Gator-87

3-Da’ Tara-78

By Beyers, longshots like Cool Gator, BB Frank and Nistle Crunch seem to have a chance for maybe 3rd.  Big Brown is the choice but no cinch to hold his number going further, so I dropped it from 104 to 102.  Elysium Fields is bred to go a distance, and that is supported by in Beyers progression, and therefore added a few points as he is likely to improve again.  Face the Cat also looks likely to improve his last number and like the distance.  Tomcito is a total unknown, he could win or finish last.   My guess is we’ll win, be a very strong 2nd, or do very little at all.  Hey Byrn had a higher Beyer going shorter and pedigree says somewhere between those two distances, but he did win at 9f regardless of the Beyers.  Fierce Wind has the pedigree to go 9f or further, but 88 or 89 Beyer isn’t going to get it done here, he needs to step it up.  Majestic Warrior is the only other horse I think could be a real factor because he was brilliant in one race, but he’s been terrible since and is hard to back with any conviction. 

By the numbers, box the top four in a $10  exacta box 4-8-11-12

BRIS

Big Brown-103

Elysium Fields-101

Face the Cat-100

Fierce Wind-98

Tomcito-95?

The main difference I see with BRIS numbers is that Fierce Wind is given a much better chance at winning.  I would say it also gives Face the Cat a slightly better chance of winning. 

$6 ex box 1-4-8-11-12 ($120)

I limited it to exacta’s to try and make the bet comparisons as fair as possible.  If I actually bet the race,  I’d go 4,8,11,12 with 4,8,11,12 with  1,4,8,9,11,12 trifecta. 

4 Responses to “Mattcapping the Florida Derby: Beyers vs. BRIS”

1. TG Ed Says:
   March 29th, 2008 at 6:40 am

   I think you are underestimating Smooth Air.

2. florida derby » Blog Archive Trends Reporter! Says:
   March 29th, 2008 at 12:02 pm

   […] BRIS numbers. Beyers 12-Big Brown-102 8-Elysium Fields-100 11-Face the Cat-97 4-Tomcito-95? … credit : […]

3. TG Ed Says:
   March 29th, 2008 at 5:02 pm

   You definitely were underestimating smooth air.

4. Matt Converse Says:
   April 2nd, 2008 at 1:13 am

   You were right! Although maybe I also overrated a few…

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