Commentary focusing mainly on pedigree this week.
1. Pyro–Pulpit has never been my favorite Derby sire, but he is of course a son of the noted stamina line A.P. Indy. Damsire Wild Again adds more stamina. He’s looking better and better in a year where the winning Derby Beyer may be in the 100-105 range.
2. Big Brown–admittedly a bit of a hope and a prayer horse with his limited experience, but he showed more talent in his last race than any three-year-old I’ve seen this year, regardless of the competition. The question is, can he carry that talent a mile and a quarter? The pedigree is a bit obscure, but does have some stamina influences.
3. Denis of Cork–Harlan’s Holiday ran some decent races going a distance, and add an Unbridled mare and you have a horse that should relish 10f. He is improving, he’s gaining seasoning, and he knows how to win. There’s a lot to like.
4. Colonel John–speaking of relishing 10f, this is probably the best bred horse for 10f among the top contenders. Tiznow isn’t my favorite sire, but he could go 10f, and with a damsire of Turkoman, who could go 10-12f, you have yourself some very nice Derby pedigree. Now, he just has to run a bit faster.
5. El Gato Malo–buried in that pedigree that at first suggests miler is damsire Mountain Cat’s runner Champs to Champs, a Group 1 winner going 2800 meters in Turkey, but Turkey or not, that’s distance. For something closer to home, he also sired Classic Cat, 2nd to Arch going 10f, and 3rd in the Preakness behind Real Quiet and Victory Gallop. So, there is some hope for this son of El Corredor to go a bit of ground.
6. Fierce Wind–sire Dixie Union also sired Grasshopper, runner-up in the 10f Travers last year, and damsire is AP Indy, so 10f shouldn’t be a problem, although the same could have been said for High Cotton last year with very similar pedigree.
7. Court Vision–tricky pedigree with a sire who was a sprinter and for the most part has runners who prefer 6-8f, but of course one glaring exception is Derby and Belmont winner Thunder Gulch. Damsire is Storm Bird, and tail-end is Secretariat, so it’s quite an array of pedigree. I have mixed feelings about this one’s pedigree, but he looks OK for 10f.
8. War Pass–many have tossed him completely but his pedigree doesn’t look any different to me today than it did a week ago. His race in the Tampa Bay Derby had little to do with lack of stamina in his pedigree. He ran a terrible race for whatever reason (grossly under-trained certainly comes to mind) at a distance he has already proven he can excel at, but this time was on a track known to be funky. I’ll give him a second chance because the race was too bad to be believed. The Wood will answer the question of whether he has any chance at the Derby distance. I can’t recall any Derby winner being beaten 24 lengths in their next-to-last Derby prep, but don’t completely toss him just yet, he has too much talent.
9. Tomcito–the mystery horse fired a scorching bullet work that seems to indicate he is indeed fast enough to compete with the US horses, who haven’t been the fastest group so far this year.
10. Sierra Sunset–he earned the highest Beyer of the Derby preps, but I am a bit skeptical of him relishing 10f. Bertrando could go 9-10f pretty well but most of his offspring seem to prefer shorter. Damsire Pirate’s Deputy doesn’t convince me. I do like the way this horse is being handled and at least they see to know what the weakness is and are trying to get the horse to relax, with success so far.
11. Cool Coal Man–damsire Rubiano was a sprinter/miler, but sire Mineshaft certainly had no problem going 10f, not surprising from the stamina line AP Indy, but I still haven’t warmed up to this horse. Beyers aren’t looking so bad as the preps continue to be pretty slow.
12. (Tie) Big Truck–sire Hook and Ladder preferred 6-7f, but hard to judge him as a sire as he’s only had a few crops. Damsire Go For Gin of course adds stamina and also has sired stamina in Albert the Great. A little tougher to judge since his sprinting sire is such a new sire. I like the way he finishes and that he continues to improve, but will have to run faster.
(Tie) Visionaire–sire is Grand Slam and damsire is French Deputy, so the pedigree is a bit speed oriented, but is moving in the right direction, and last race Beyer stacks up well against this group.
(Tie) Georgie Boy–yet another showing promise with pedigree that is suspect for going 10f, but I do like the way this horse is being handled.
March 21st, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Hope War Pass wins the Wood.Like you said,he does have tallent.If he does win,that will make the odds a little better for the true Derby contenders.No way War Pass makes a mile and a quarter.