Derby Top 10 - March 18th
1. Pyro (2)
2. Denis Of Cork (5)
3. Cool Coal Man (4)
4. Colonel John (6)
5. Elysium Fields (7)
6. Sierra Sunset (new)
7. Georgie Boy (10)
8. El Gato Malo (8)
9. Court Vision (9)
10. War Pass (1)
Ever since this Derby list began I’ve been removing horses from the Top 10 and Radar every week. I removed some for injury but the vast majority of my cuts were due to under performance. This past weekend was almost enough to make me rethink my policy however because I have been operating under the assumption that some of the horses from this crop were genuinely good and that in order to win all the others would have to measure up. It is becoming more and more apparent to me that any horse from this group should be able to win the Derby even the lamentably slow Big Truck. The Tampa Bay Derby was quite a shocking race, War Pass was soundly defeated and his only saving grace was that his performance was so bad it simply cannot be an accurate reflection of what he is capable of. In terms of ability I think he is just as capable of wiring the Wood and Derby as he ever was but the reason I dropped him to 10th place on my list is that I now have serious doubts about his fitness and even mental toughness. Horses can run a terrible prep this close to the Derby and still recover but the fact is most don’t. There is usually a reason why they run so badly and with time as short as it is that reason may not be cleared up in time to matter. Big Truck and Atoned are both on the radar, neither makes it into the top 10. Despite the fact that I’m trying to embrace the notion that any horse can win this Derby I’m still put off by the fact that the Tampa Bay Derby represents the best career effort by both of these horses and it is still well short of what horses like Pyro, Colonel John and Denis Of Cork seem capable of. I like Atoned far better than Big Truck because I think he has more upside. The one downside to him though is that he seems to be a loser. There is really no excuse for being second 4 times in a row, especially when 3 of the races were photo finishes. That indicates a mental problem, I wish Atoned had more time between now and the Derby to work it out. Part of me secretly wants to see him run a bad one next time out. That is often how these habitual losers break out of their funk. Then they become a great candidate at better odds next time out. Sierra Sunset makes a very high debut on the Top 10 list, checking in at #6. I thought his performance in the Rebel was just about as good as any two turn performance by a 3yo this year aside from possibly the Southwest where he ran a similar race but was easily beaten by Denis Of Cork who moved to second on the list despite not having run. Sierra Sunset, Liberty Bull and Isabull all came out of that race to run very well and it leads one to believe that Denis Of Cork may just be the big horse on the trail. He’ll still be terribly short on seasoning but that be overcome if he is good enough and the competition is bad enough. Z Fortune gets dropped from the list entirely. I still like him as a horse but he ran well below expectations and I don’t think he’ll be rebounding in a big way next time out. Prior to the San Felipe I compared Georgie Boy to Came Home and the comparison looks more than apt at this stage. I think Georgie Boy has a definite ceiling distance wise and he won’t get 10f. The San Felipe only further confirmed that notion. Why is he on my top 10? Because I think class will count for something in a crop that is this slow and Georgie Boy definitely has class. Is he likely to win the Derby? No, but there certainly aren’t 10 more likely candidates out there. Personally I could only find 6. The top 10 list is unofficially starting to split between horses that I think are likely winners and horses that I consider as more in the money shots. Realistically after the final preps are run I’m not still going to believe that a full 10 horses are likely Derby winners so an unofficial line gets drawn. Right now I’d put the line under Sierra Sunset, all the horses below him are not as likely to win but are more than capable to hit the frame. Eight Belles has moved to the top of the radar list with the news that Rick Porter is considering nominating her to the Triple Crown. Given the quality of this years group of fillies relative to the colts I think she would have a decent shot but I’ll wait until she is officially nominated before I decide to put her in the Top 10.
On the radar: Eight Belles, Visionaire, Big Brown, Atoned, Cowboy Cal, Tomcito, Big Truck
Dropped: Z Fortune (3), Shediak
March 18th, 2008 at 10:29 pm
That reason won’t be cleared up for War Pass unless, in a shocking twist, it’s revealed that AP Indy is his real father! Seriously, I kind of agree with you my opinion didn’t really change that much of him after this race, as surprising as it was to see him beaten so badly. But I also agree and can’t remember many Derby winners being beaten 24 lengths in one of their last two prep races. Big Truck isn’t so bad, he’s improving and he’s been finishing fairly strong. He was the one horse I thought had an ioutside chance of beating War Pass when I looked at the pp’s. I’ve been saying all year that this is a good year for fillies to try the Derby. A 100 Beyer might win it! Move over, Giacomo and Sea Hero!
March 19th, 2008 at 10:11 am
Upon further reflection I regret even putting Big Truck on the radar. I know I said any horse could win but he’s really not that good. He got a low BSF even with a fast pace to set him up. I suspect that the TB Derby is as good as it gets for Big Truck. Unless this year’s Derby will be won with a 93 he’s not good enough.
March 19th, 2008 at 7:18 pm
What about Big Brown? He was very impressive winning a Gulfstream allowance (12 plus lengths eased up). The fact that Dick Dutrow is skipping the trip to Dubai to stay for Big Brown’s next scheduled start in the Florida Derby, you would have to think he is something special. Also, Desormeaux has already committed to him, makes it even more so.
March 20th, 2008 at 8:12 am
Big Brown is on the radar but nothing more. Frankly he’s a decent type of horse to go against. He has not yet faced good horses, he has not won around two turns on the dirt, he’s terribly short on experience and he’s got bad feet. We’ll see if he is something special in the Florida Derby. However even with a victory he might be hard to back for the win spot in the Derby.
Kent D does not have any other Derby prospects at the moment as none of the Zayat horses he was on have worked out.
April 6th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
Comparing to what I’ve read about this before, it sounds absolutely impressing. I’m an old internet user, and have read a lot about this kind of stuff, but what I read here today is absolutely different.
April 9th, 2008 at 5:55 am
Sounds great! Your blog is one of my most favorite now ;). You have hit the nail on the head, just like you always do.