Mattzapping the Derby Preps

by Matt Converse
March 7, 2008

Louisiana Derby

#3 Pyro is the horse to beat with his late kick powering him past the rest of the field.

 #9 Majestic Warrior is the wild-card in the race.  He looked like a potential Derby horse in the Hopeful then crashed and burned in the Champagne and has been on the sidelines since.  He has the pedigree to go a distance, and has been working well.  Dangerous.

#2 My Pal Charlie may be overlooked in the race and is a nice longshot who could pump up the exacta or trifecta return.  He looks to be stalking #4 J Be K early but might be better than his faster opponent since he’s run close to this distance in his last two and done well, and J Be K’s pedigree isn’t good for going a distance.  I would think a wet or off track might help his chances of stealing it. 

#7 Blackberry Road was steadied in the backstretch and blocked in the stretch with Borel aboard last time, and the connections wisely make a switch to Albarado.  This horse needs to be taken wide so he can get a clear run. 

#5 Unbridled Vicar didn’t have an ideal trip last time either, and was able to pass Blackberry Road in the final strides, even after that one finally got clear.  This horse tries very hard, and is ever so slowly improving his Beyers,  and therefore will probably land somewhere in the superfecta or trifecta. 

#6 Tale of Ekati ran well for the first half of the BC Juvy, then backed up late.  I don’t think he wants to go a distance, but he certainly has the pedigree from the dam’s side.  I could see him getting a piece but that’s about it.

#8 Yankee Bravo might be a sleeper here, at least to hit the board.  He has finished strongly in his races here, the last one this same distance.  His Beyers aren’t much, but they were earned on turf and synthetic, so I’d look for his number to jump up here.  He’s 3 for 3 and should have no problem getting the distance.  It might be wise to throw him into 2nd or 3rd on a few tris.

#1 Stevil seems to be a hopeless longshot, he’s won a maiden race and since lost three straight allowance races.  He was 2nd to Visionaire in one of them, but was beaten more than five lengths.  he also nearly beat Unbridled Vicar in one of them, so there’s a glimmer of hope.

$2 super 3,9 with 3,9 with 2,5,7,8 with 2,5,7,8 ($48)

$2 tri 3 with 2,5,7,8 with 2,5,7,8 ($24)

$2 tri 3 with 4,6 with 2,5,7,8,9 ($20)

$2 tri 4-3-7, 7-3-5 ($4) 

One Response to “Mattzapping the Derby Preps”

  1. Matt Converse Says:

    $2 tri 3 with 2,5,7,8 with 2,5,7,8 ($24)

    $2 tri pays $556

    Very close to hitting the super too. Even the exacta paid pretty well consdiering the favorite won. My Pal Charlie was a HUGE overlay at 60-1. I was stunned.

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