Weekend Overview: Dubai as always served up some excellent racing that was well worth the hype. Not all the winners were clear favorites but many of the race were formful enough. Curlin asserted his dominance in fine fashion. Rick Dutrow also had the weekend of his life as he won the Florida Derby and a pair of races in Dubai with Diamond Stripes and Benny The Bull. Gulfstream was home to some big efforts as Big Brown, Electrify and Sugar Swirl all looked excellent in their respective victories.

Performance of the Week: When the post positions were released for the Florida Derby one opinion seemed unanimous. Big Brown was going to need to be the real deal in order to win from the 12 post. Outside posts at Gulfstream have been tough and especially tough for speed horses but Big Brown is clearly showing he’s much better than average. He took the race by the horns going into the first turn and never looked back. It was a colossal performance by a very good horse. What it means for the Derby is not really the focus of this paragraph, that I will discuss tomorrow. This was simply about his performance in the Florida Derby. It was something to see.

Race of the Week: How did Jay Peg managed to come back and win the Duty Free? I’ve seen the race a few times and the camera angle is deceptive but it seems that Jay Peg did indeed fall off the lead by about a length at one point after setting the pace the whole way around. Once the real running began it looked as if Jay Peg would be found wanting as the classy Darjina went past and Seachange and Vodka also appeared to have more run but Jay Peg re-rallied and got his momentum back in the last 70 yards. He battled past Darjina and the others in the shadow of the wire.

Flop of the Weekend: Godolphin gets flop of the weekend honours for their stables poor performance on Dubai World Cup day. One second and one third from twelve runners. Literato, Jalil, Creachadoir and Diabolical were all being well backed to put in good efforts but not one of the quartet managed better than 7th. World Cup day is the biggest day of Godolphin’s year. They buy horses (like Diabolical) specifically to perform well in the World Cup and on paper they had a strong team. The end result was a major letdown.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Curlin is now the top ranked horse in the nation but with something of an asterisk beside his name. He has earned more points than anyone else but as of right now he has not yet run in America. A horse officially needs to run in America three times to be eligible to be named the TCR horse of the year so we’ll watch these developments closely. Curlin is going to need to have at least 2 stateside preps for the Breeders Cup Classic. Benny The Bull became the top Male Sprinter while Sugar Shake moved into first place in both the Female Sprinter and Main Track Older Female divisions. She is currently the only dual division leader. Big Brown is the new top ranked Three Year Old Male but that might only last a week or two as the other major preps have still to be contested. Well Armed made a big jump from 18th overall to 4th courtesy of his good race in the World Cup.

Tip O’the Cap: South African racing gets the tip of the cap this weekend. Years ago the odd quality horse would emerge from South Africa. Horse Chestnut looked brilliant but never really proved his worth. Ipi Tombe was certainly top class but again had an injury shortened career. Excellent horses are beginning to come from South Africa with regularity and the World Cup was a coming out party for South African racing. Mike de Kock, the dominant and progressive trainer from South Africa, trained 3 of the 6 winners the total record of horses either bred or based at one time in South Africa was 9-2-1-0. They have definitely arrived on the International scene.

KC Handicapping: I certainly hope some of you saw the comments section on this blog. Perhaps it’s better for my reputation if you didn’t but a commenter named KD asked about Sun Classique in the Sheema Classic and I proceed to say that she had no chance at all. Turns out KD was the only one with profitable advice to offer. I completely missed both Turf races but the 4 dirt races were basically formful and I was on the right track in each of them despite only having one winner on top. I did a fairly decent job identifying the bomb Don Renato, but hats off to KD for hitting the pick 3 and identifying Sun Classique as a live longshot.

This week I will be betting a mythical $120 on the Florida Derby, one time using Beyers as my handicapping tool, and the other using BRIS numbers.

 Beyers

12-Big Brown-102

8-Elysium Fields-100

11-Face the Cat-97

4-Tomcito-95? (85-105)

9-Hey Byrn-93

1-Fierce Wind-91

6-Nistle Crunch-90

2-Smooth Air, 7-B B Frank-88

5-Cool Gator-87

3-Da’ Tara-78

By Beyers, longshots like Cool Gator, BB Frank and Nistle Crunch seem to have a chance for maybe 3rd.  Big Brown is the choice but no cinch to hold his number going further, so I dropped it from 104 to 102.  Elysium Fields is bred to go a distance, and that is supported by in Beyers progression, and therefore added a few points as he is likely to improve again.  Face the Cat also looks likely to improve his last number and like the distance.  Tomcito is a total unknown, he could win or finish last.   My guess is we’ll win, be a very strong 2nd, or do very little at all.  Hey Byrn had a higher Beyer going shorter and pedigree says somewhere between those two distances, but he did win at 9f regardless of the Beyers.  Fierce Wind has the pedigree to go 9f or further, but 88 or 89 Beyer isn’t going to get it done here, he needs to step it up.  Majestic Warrior is the only other horse I think could be a real factor because he was brilliant in one race, but he’s been terrible since and is hard to back with any conviction. 

By the numbers, box the top four in a $10  exacta box 4-8-11-12

BRIS

Big Brown-103

Elysium Fields-101

Face the Cat-100

Fierce Wind-98

Tomcito-95?

The main difference I see with BRIS numbers is that Fierce Wind is given a much better chance at winning.  I would say it also gives Face the Cat a slightly better chance of winning. 

$6 ex box 1-4-8-11-12 ($120)

I limited it to exacta’s to try and make the bet comparisons as fair as possible.  If I actually bet the race,  I’d go 4,8,11,12 with 4,8,11,12 with  1,4,8,9,11,12 trifecta. 

Dubai World Cup Past Performances - Full Card

Dubai Duty Free
The deepest and most interesting race of the day. one could come up with three top class selections and not be surprised if none of them hit the frame. This field is that good so I won’t spend much time on the horse I don’t like. There are a few I do like and I’ll stick to them. Literato is a horse from the very top drawer. Last year I thought he was the best horse in Europe that no one had ever heard of. He went virtually unnoticed despite a stellar campaign and I expect him to be one of Europe’s top middle distance horses this year if not THE top middle distance horse. Admire Aura is a horse who is just finding his best recently. He was a good 3yo but he just started to really come to hand near the end of the season. He started off 2008 with two very nice efforts and looks ready for a career best effort here. He’ll need a career best effort though. Floral Pegasus has not won for over a year but he is still one of the top horses in here and one of the best middle distance turf horses you’ll find anywhere. He’s in a bit of a bad situation in Hong Kong because there are a lack of 9f turf races and Good Ba Ba is likely the worlds best miler while Viva Pataca might be the worlds best Classic distance turf horse. Floral Pegasus will be glad to be rid of those two and I expect a huge effort. I think in the end I’ll shade for Admire Aura over the other two, I like his recency and am a bit put off by the fact that Literato has not run in a while. Horses with recent starts have done much better in Dubai than those making their first start. Floral Pegasus may also have confidence issues as a result of his string of losses. He solid but not the primary selection.

1) Admire Aura
2) Literato
3) Floral Pegasus

Dubai Sheema Classic
Another race with many interesting alternatives. You often get that with Turf races. Most of the focus is on Viva Pataca and rightly so. He’s a powerhouse and rival Vengence of Rain already won this race last year. Viva Pataca proved himself superior to his rival last year and the field looks slightly weaker this time. Quijano is already exposed as a tier two type of horse and Better Talk Now is not good enough anymore. Viva Pataca is still beatable despite his dominance but I’m not sure if he’ll meet defeat here. Doctor Dino and Youmzain seem to have the best chances to beat him but Youmzain needs a setup as well as some luck. He often runs well but has struggled to actually close out races. I think you can expect him to make the top 3 but I don’t expect this to be the time that he steps up and finally wins a big one. Doctor Dino is slightly suspect at 12f and I think that will find him out just slightly. Especially since he has not run in 3 months and is coming off a career best performance. I think there will be a slight letdown in this race. If you want a bomb to use underneath use Oracle West. He was second in this race last year and the field is easier this time, plus he looks to have improved since then.

1) Viva Pataca
2) Youmzain
3) Oracle West

Dubai World Cup
I’m not sure that Curlin will never lose again but this might be one of the easier fields he faces all year. He has no excuse not to win this and given the fact that this has been an extremely formful race over the years I expect much of the same. He is the best dirt router in the world and none of these even look like the second best. I think Jalil is a fraud who will be lucky to make the top 3. He has been beating nothing recently and I think he is well below some others here. Premium Tap is a quality and classy horse but I think he might be getting past it a little. I wont use him as an alternative. Asiatic Boy at one time looked like he’d be a match for Curlin but a lot of gloss came off with his last loss. Not sure what went wrong but I think he’ll bounce back to run well again but his best race is not good enough in my opinion and he’ll struggle to hit the frame. Vermilion is the main danger to Curlin and I think he might even test him briefly in the lane. He’s a horse in a winning habit who handles the distance very well. Japanese dirt racing is catching up to America and this might be the best dirt horse they’ve ever had. i think second is his for the taking. America may be poised for a sweep of the exacta though because AP Arrow will make himself heard. He is a bit of a habitual loser but in his last two races he really seemed to wake up. Great things are begin said about how he’s settled in Dubai and I think he’ll be in the top 3 for sure.

1) Curlin
2) Vermilion
3) A.P. Arrow

Overview: The Dubai World Cup Meeting is always a highlight of the spring. Like any top class races these are attractive affairs to have a stab at. My policy for this space though is that any international races handicapped do not get included in the overall handicapping scorecard, which has been slumping severely in March. Perhaps this is just what I need to get on track. Six top class races and no accountability if I crash and burn! All the Past Performances have been consolidated into one file so to follow along or handicap the races yourself simply scroll though the file linked below.

Dubai World Cup Past Performances - Full Card

Godolphin Mile
It is always a highest priority for Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin stable to do well on World Cup night. Every year he attempts to stack his hand to produce a contender in each race. If he doesn’t have one he buys one. But sometimes he buys a horse just to have one not because they’re actually good enough to win. I think that is definitely the case with Blackat Blackitten in this race. He is an allowance quality horse and I would not go anywhere near him. He has had some success at the Carnival but in general the quality of racing is not that great. I expect him to lose by a greater margin to his stablemate than he did in his last. Elusive Warning is an exciting prospect for Godolphin. He has barely put a foot wrong thus far but he is terribly inexperienced. I think he has the talent to run the race but I wonder if he’ll have the guts. Barcola will keep him keyed up from the outside and I think the pace could be quite quick. A quick pace should suit Diamond Stripes but I’m not sure I love his inability to close the deal. Diamond Stripes is a bit of an underachiever. While he is a must use in the exotics he doesn’t have much value in the win column. I am generally biased towards American horses in international dirt events, generally they’re much better than the rest. That is why I’m giving Barcola an extra look despite his outside post. He is the fastest horse in the race and only Elusive Warning looks capable of pressing him. He is the kind of horse that can get away even when setting a very quick pace, as long as he settles. He does not need to improve in order to beat this field. A mile is perfect for him and Barcola is my primary selection. I would use Elusive Warning just in case he is something special but most likely he’ll chase the speed and fade in the final quarter. I do have an eye on a bomb in here. Don Renato is a solid horse at the distance. He is tough and consistent and although his form is Saudi Arabian he did run within a half length of Premuim Tap, who surprisingly has not entered this race as his pre-World Cup jog. The quality is not very high in this race and Don Renato has given a quality horse a very tough race. He may pick up a piece.

1) Barcola
2) Elusive Warning
3) Don Renato

UAE Derby
Saeed bin Suroor and Mike de Kock have dominated this race for years and between their 5 entrants they look set to do so again. de Kock has the very tough pair of Royal Vintage and Honour Devil. One of those two is the likely winner unless a Godolphin horse can improve. I thought the Al Bastakiya was a telling race and the principles from that race should dominate here again. Honour Devil suffered his first lifetime defeat that day going down to Royal Vintage by just a head. He looked as though he was struggling to finish out the race and I think he is less solid at 9f than his stablemate. Royal Vintage has also only lost once and that was to Honour Devil but he should widen the margin as the distance increases. Running back at the same distance this time means they should be close but I still favor Royal Vintage. I think he’ll be the better horse once he puts it all together. Numaany is the big danger to the de Kock pair. Despite having the same number of career starts he is definitely more babyish. I loved his last race though. He is not suited that well by going to the front but he did the donkey work anyway and was not quitting. If they take him off the pace of Massive Drama he should be primed for a lifetime best effort. I’m not sure if it will be enough but it just might be.

1) Royal Vintage
2) Numaany
3) Honour Devil

Dubai Golden Shaheen
This is another situation where Godolphin has attempted to buy the race and this time I think they’ve done a great job. Diabolical was, in my opinion, the best 6f horse in America last year. He was purchased mid-season and taken out of training to point for this race and it looked as though it backfired when he ran the worst sprint of his life in his debut at Nad al Sheba. But that proved just to be a bit of rust. Last time out he showed that he’s still got the stuff with a stylish victory. He was better than his American competition when he left but is he still better now? Americans do speed better than anyone else in the world and i think you have to restrict yourself to the US entrants (including Diabolical). Tactical speed has often done the trick in this race so perhaps Bushwacker, Barbecue Eddie and Esperamos might not all be best served tactically. Barbecue Eddie is the speed of the speed though and he has to be well respected because of that fact. He’s a stubborn horse when he wants to be but traditional dirt might not be his best surface. Idiot Proof is solid and classy but has turned into a bit of a hanger in his last two races. I like him to hit the board but he’s really just a poor man’s Diabolical. Benny the Bull could not handle Diabolical or Idiot Proof when they met but he seems to have come of age in his last two races. He was thoroughly dominant in both races and he looks hard to deny here. I’m not sure what the straight course will do to him mentally as a lot of late runners settle in on the straights and don’t start to rev themselves up until the turn. They get used to turns being the signal to get moving. He won’t get that here and he may have traffic problems. I think it will be very tight between he and Diabolical at the line and I think the Godolphin star will just shade him in a photo.

1) Diabolical
2) Benny The Bull
3) Idiot Proof

I have been under the weather all week so forgive me if this post makes less than perfect sense. Experience has always been seen as one of those vital factors for Derby handicapping. When I look at the Derby I always view it through the eyes of 6 key factors. Speed, Fitness, Form, Class, Suitability and Experience.

Experience can be a tricky thing to quantify though. Horses with an apparent lack of experience (as defined by the total number of starts) are supposedly disadvantaged but no one really picks a horse because they the most career starts. The average odds of the Derby starters with the most career starts is 27/1 in the last 5 years. In fact if you take the three horses with the most career starts from every Derby since 2000 you get a cumulative Derby record of 24-0-0-3. Imperialism and Afleet Alex are only ones who managed to hit the frame.

Often an abundance of career starts is actually just a signal that the connections are not single minded in their intentions regarding the horse. They try turf, dirt, sprinting and routing all with mediocre results and then decide to have a flap at the Derby. Horses like Storm In May, It’sallinthechase and Supah Blitz are perfect examples of this and they are exactly why it is of no real advantage to have a plethora of starts.

Of course a horse does learn a great deal from their first few starts but there comes a point in every horses career when another start is just another start. It does not add anything significant in terms of experience and learning. That is why, despite the strong stats supporting it, I have chosen to disregard a minimum number of career starts as a significant Derby factor. Horses with less than 5 career starts prior to the Derby have a rather weak record of 20-0-0-3 but 5 is just an arbitrary number. Until this past decade they used to say you needed at least 6.

I think an extra start becomes irrelevant at the point when a horse would not be doing anything new. If your horse has had 4 lifetime starts but has never been out of allowance company or around two turns then obviously the horse needs an extra start in stakes company around two turns to be experienced enough. But if your horse was like Curlin and had already won a pair of two turn Derby preps he is not going to significantly aided by another start. He’d just be doing more of the same.

The raw number of starts matters less than what each horse gets out of those starts and it’s different for each individual. Curlin was much further along after 3 starts than Street Sense was, despite the fact that they ended up being horses of very similar ability they learned at different speeds so how could one reliably state that “Horse A” could not be ready for a race like the Derby simply because of the number of times he has ran?

What is important in terms of experience I feel is that a horse face a largish field at least once and preferably not in maiden company. Sometimes maidens are full races but the best horse breaks on top and wins all by himself. In those cases it wouldn’t have mattered if it were a field size of 20 or 3. Horses who did not face a field of 10 or more as a 3yo and also failed to face a field of 10 more than once as a 2yo are a paltry 34-0-3-3 in the Derby.

Another way I’d judge experience is by the types of races a horse has run in. The Derby is a brand new experience for all contestants but we’ve clearly seen in the past that a horse needs to have experience in a stakes route race. Horses who failed to run in at least one 9f prep race have gone 15-0-0-0 and horses who only managed to run one two turn race as a 3yo went 17-0-0-0. That seems to suggest that a bigger factor than total career starts is what kind of starts you had.

Experience is one key to winning the Derby but I rank it among the least important of the 6 keys to success. Speed and Form trump all the others and inexperienced horses will often beat experienced ones simply because they are vastly superior.

For this years Derby it means that horses like Big Brown and Denis of Cork will not be automatically tossed for the lack of total career starts. I’ll watch their races and determine their experience based on how they actually do and what they get out of their starts.

Derby Top 10 - March 25th

1. Pyro (1)
2. Denis Of Cork (2)
3. Cool Coal Man (3)
4. Colonel John (4)
5. Elysium Fields (5)
6. Georgie Boy (7)
7. El Gato Malo (8)
8. Court Vision (9)
9. War Pass (10)
10. Eight Belles (new)

Not many changes this week aside from the enforced dropping of Sierra Sunset. He looked like a decent prospect but injury unfortunately eliminated him from Derby consideration. Thankfully we’ve had very few injuries this year, just Sierra Sunset, Crown Of Thorns and Into Mischief among the major contenders. Eight Belles makes her debut in the top 10 and the way her connections are looking she might even test the boys before the derby. Her Beyer Speed Figures are right in line if not a bit superior to the colts numbers and visually there are very few holes you can see in her. She is nice sized filly with very good tactical speed and a nice turn of foot. She seems to do everything easily and has become a real monster as a 3yo among her peers. The biggest change in her was probably maturity but it is worth noting she she has always done better when stalking the pace closely. they’ve taken her back a bit further in 3 of her lifetime starts and she did not fare as well in any of them. Given the fact that most contenders are late runners this year, good tactical speed is a handy weapon. She still has much to prove though and the Arkansas Derby might be a good idea, just so they get a little taste of what they’re up against. The stakes races run at Turfway this past weekend will have little to no impact on the Derby. Some of the entrants like Halo Najib might end up in the Derby gate but they won’t impact the race. Adriano is an impressive horse visually but dirt remains a significant question mark as does his temperament on big race days. I’m really looking forward to the Florida Derby. I think some nice contenders will emerge from that race. Big Brown is being tipped by many for super stardom. I still do not have him in the top 10 because of his lack of experience. Talent can trump experience but I want to see his talent on display against some worthy adversaries before I proclaim him this years version of Curlin. Tomcito would seem to have a similar chance of proclaiming himself to be something special but we have to wait and see with him. Elysium Fields may actually get overlooked just a bit but for us he is the most solid Derby contender in the Florida Derby. I’d love to see him take the next step forward and really show that he’s up to taking on Pyro and Denis Of Cork.

On the radar: Visionaire, Big Brown, Atoned, Cowboy Cal, Tomcito, Big Truck

Dropped: Sierra Sunset (6)

Weekend Overview: A rather bland weekend made worse by the cancellations at Gulfstream. Sugar Swirl would have likely been one of the highlights. Instead much of the buzz this Monday morning has to do with the Dubai World Cup meeting next week and the Florida Derby. Perhaps rightly so, both of those are pretty big events and the Dubai World Cup will be especially exciting as we’ll see Curlin and Premium Tap face off.

Performance of the Week: Adriano looked somewhat spectacular visually in the Lane’s End. It’s not the first time he’s seemed overpowering, he has turned in some great performances on the grass but this win on Polytrack really opens up his options. Once he moved to the front he never looked like getting caught. He looked both like a horse who was enjoying himself and like a horse who could have gone around again. Adriano is still a longshot for the Derby but has to be the main danger for the Lexington.

Race of the Week: The Distaff Handicap at Aqueduct was my favorite race of the week. The aptly named Rite Moment came from off the pace strongly to nail Your Flame In Me who looked like she’d run them off their feet. Rite Moment was produced expertly and just got up in time. this little filly has barely put a foot wrong this year for Contessa, her first graded stakes win was well deserved.

Flop of the Weekend: Has On The Acorn even finished the San Luis Rey yet? He settled down fine early on just as he usually does but I think he must have fallen asleep because he never picked up at all once the running began. A puzzling effort for such an experienced horse.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: I thought this would be the week when the Female Sprint division got a new leader. Turns out I was right although it’s a completely different horse than I suspected. Sugar Swirl would have gone to the top but her race was cancelled due to inclement weather. Rite Moment seized the initiative and improved to 5-4-1-0 on the year with a nice victory in the Distaff Handicap. Adriano was the only other significant mover as he jumped to 3rd in the Three Year old Male division.

Tip O’the Cap: Mullins and Baze need to get some credit first for the turn around in Boule D’Or and second for the strategy that allowed him to beat superior horses in the San Luis Rey. Two starts back this horse was third in a claiming race and now he’s a G-2 winner. Mullins has done a good job just as he’s done with a bunch of others of improving a horse who was obviously not producing his best earlier on in his career. Baze and Mullins deserve a lot of credit for the swashbuckling tactics on the backstretch. They decided that their horse could not accelerate as quickly as the other horses so they’d try to draw the sting out of their kicks by opening up really early and it worked to a “T”. What looked like a kamikaze move turned out to be a perfectly judged ride. I think it’s shocking actually that more connections don’t try this in usually slow run turf marathons.

KC Handicapping: Not a great week for the selections as the drought in March continues. Halo Najib and Icabad Crane both put in decent performances but neither were good enough to win. On the Acorn and Duke of de Buqe were simply horrendous.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 4(3)-0-1-1 (-$8.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 58(43)-11-12-8 (-$22.60 -19.48% ROI)

Rushaway Stakes
Because of the holiday weekend I’m doing my weekend handicapping a day early. I have not yet seen the morning line for the Rushaway but I am becoming quite smitten with the Motion horse Icabad Crane. Since he has not been well backed in either of his career starts and Miner’s Claim seems to have more hype surrounding him I think there might be a square price of about 5/1 on him. Icabad Crane is undefeated in two starts and was extremely impressive in his last race. He ran down Duke of de Buqe under a hand ride and won as easily as he liked. Duke of de Buqe came back to score impressively and is entered in the Lane’s End. Icabad Crane has not run January the 20th but shows a steady pattern of works since early February. It’s probable that he had a slight issue or sickness after his allowance victory and Motion has decided to take his time with him. Greame Motion is another reason to like this colt. He is a very savvy shipping trainer. I am going mostly off the visual impression that he made but his figures do look competitive, mind you they were recorded on dirt. If he takes to the Polytrack surface he should be very tough. Miner’s Claim is a good horse but struck me as a bit ordinary. He’ll need to get much better against this group and Casse has historically done pretty poorly south of the border. I’ll use Targe and Big Glen underneath instead. Targe is a very consistent Polytrack horse and I think he could improve here. Big Glen was explosive 2 starts back but was ridden a bit closer up in the field last time. He got trapped and had to steady at a vital time and both the top finishers came from well back. Watch for his connections to drop him back and make one run with him again. That should see him improve and he’ll be a big threat late on.

Icabad Crane

Lane’s End Stakes
Halo Najib became a favorite of mine as a 2yo at Keeneland. At one time I thought he could improve and become a real Derby contender. That hasn’t panned out, but what is becoming apparent to me is that he is a very good horse on Polytrack. He looked phenomenal in both his maiden and the race at Ocala but ordinary in his dirt starts. I suspect that on Polytrack he is too good for many of the horses in here. I think this race is actually not a great deal better than the Rushaway. I think Duge of de Buqe will control the pace and he is one of the biggest dangers. Todd Plethcer has won this race with unheralded horses before and he does have a knack of placing his horses in spots that fit even if bettors don’t recognize it. That’s why his percentage with first time stretchouts and first time turf horses is so good. Duke of de Buqe is a younger sibling of Balto Star’s and he looked a good deal like his brother when winning last time out. There doesn’t seem to be any speed in here at all aside from stablemate Chitoz so Duke of de Buqe has to be included everywhere. Another horse I respect is Racecar Rhapsody. I’m not sure that I love the fact that this is his first start of the year, or that the form from his last two races has not worked out but he is a very decent colt.

Halo Najib
Duke Of De Buqe

San Luis Rey Handicap
I think this race is pretty straightforward. On the Acorn is both the best horse and the horse that is best suited to the conditions. I liked his race last time out and thought it was the kind of effort that would set him up perfectly for this race. The rest of the field is rather non-descript aside from Obrigado who is good but a pattern loser. Some are quite questionable at the distance and those who aren’t don’t look like they’re anywhere near good enough to beat On The Acorn or Obrigado. The pace should be slow but in these types of races it doesn’t really matter.

On The Acorn

Commentary focusing mainly on pedigree this week.

1. Pyro–Pulpit has never been my favorite Derby sire, but he is of course a son of the noted stamina line A.P. Indy.  Damsire Wild Again adds more stamina.  He’s looking better and better in a year where the winning Derby Beyer may be in the 100-105 range.

2. Big Brown–admittedly a bit of a hope and a prayer horse with his limited experience, but he showed more talent in his last race than any three-year-old I’ve seen this year, regardless of the competition.  The question is, can he carry that talent a mile and a quarter?  The pedigree is a bit obscure, but does have some stamina influences.

3. Denis of Cork–Harlan’s Holiday ran some decent races going a distance, and add an Unbridled mare and you have a horse that should relish 10f.  He is improving, he’s gaining seasoning, and he knows how to win.  There’s a lot to like.

4. Colonel John–speaking of relishing 10f, this is probably the best bred horse for 10f among the top contenders.  Tiznow isn’t my favorite sire, but he could go 10f, and with a  damsire of Turkoman, who could go 10-12f,  you have yourself some very nice Derby pedigree.  Now, he just has to run a bit faster. 

5. El Gato Malo–buried in that pedigree that at first suggests miler is damsire Mountain Cat’s runner Champs to Champs, a Group 1 winner going 2800 meters in Turkey, but Turkey or not, that’s distance.  For something closer to home, he also sired Classic Cat, 2nd to Arch going 10f, and 3rd in the Preakness behind Real Quiet and Victory Gallop.  So, there is some hope for this son of El Corredor to go a bit of ground.

6. Fierce Wind–sire Dixie Union also sired Grasshopper, runner-up in the 10f Travers last year, and damsire is AP Indy, so 10f shouldn’t be a problem, although the same could have been said for High Cotton last year with very similar pedigree. 

7. Court Vision–tricky pedigree with a sire who was a sprinter and for the most part has runners who prefer 6-8f, but of course one glaring exception is Derby and Belmont winner Thunder Gulch.  Damsire is Storm Bird, and tail-end is Secretariat, so it’s quite an array of pedigree.  I have mixed feelings about this one’s pedigree, but he looks OK for 10f.

8. War Pass–many have tossed him completely but his pedigree doesn’t look any different to me today than it did a week ago.  His race in the Tampa Bay Derby had little to do with lack of stamina in his pedigree.  He ran a terrible race for whatever reason (grossly under-trained certainly comes to mind) at a distance he has already proven he can excel at, but this time was on a track known to be funky.  I’ll give him a second chance because the race was too bad to be believed.  The Wood will answer the question of whether he has any chance at the Derby distance.  I can’t recall any Derby winner being beaten 24 lengths in their next-to-last Derby prep, but don’t completely toss him just yet, he has too much talent.

9. Tomcito–the mystery horse fired a scorching bullet work that seems to indicate he is indeed fast enough to compete with the US horses, who haven’t been the fastest group so far this year.

10.  Sierra Sunset–he earned the highest Beyer of the Derby preps, but I am a bit skeptical of him relishing 10f.  Bertrando could go 9-10f pretty well but most of his offspring seem to prefer shorter.  Damsire Pirate’s Deputy doesn’t convince me.  I do like the way this horse is being handled and at least they see to know what the weakness is and are trying to get the horse to relax, with success so far.

11. Cool Coal Man–damsire Rubiano was a sprinter/miler, but sire Mineshaft certainly had no problem going 10f, not surprising from the stamina line AP Indy, but I still haven’t warmed up to this horse.  Beyers aren’t looking so bad as the preps continue to be pretty slow.

12. (Tie) Big Truck–sire Hook and Ladder preferred 6-7f, but hard to judge him as a sire as he’s only had a few crops.  Damsire Go For Gin of course adds stamina and also has sired stamina in Albert the Great.  A little tougher to judge since his sprinting sire is such a new sire.  I like the way he finishes and that he continues to improve, but will have to run faster.

(Tie) Visionaire–sire is Grand Slam and damsire is French Deputy, so the pedigree is a bit speed oriented, but is moving in the right direction, and last race Beyer stacks up well against this group.

(Tie) Georgie Boy–yet another showing promise with pedigree that is suspect for going 10f, but I do like the way this horse is being handled. 

Since the high profile washout of War Pass fans and Derby prognosticators have been searching around to try and find some context. What does this do to his Derby chances? Can a horse run that badly in their second last prep and still be at their best on Derby day?

I looked to isolate every Derby starter since 1996 who finished out of the frame in their second last prep race but I decided to exclude those who bombed once again in their last prep. The idea is to find quality horses who simply underperformed not horses like Built For Pleasure or Nationalore who were legitimately bad horses who were being thrown in over their heads.

So here is the cumulative Derby record for horses who finished out of the frame in their second last Derby prep but rebounded to run in the frame in their last prep: 33-1-2-2. Charismatic, Hard Spun, Proud Citizen, Afleet Alex and Prince Of Thieves all managed to overcome a poor second last prep race.

But in order to be truly accurate one does have to look inside the numbers a bit. For instance I’m not sure Charismatic really qualifies. Yes he did finish 4th in the Santa Anita Derby before coming back to score in the Lexington. But the SA Derby 4th place finish was not exactly an under performance, in fact it was right on par with his best lifetime effort to date. He was a horse that Lukas still had not figured out at the time. So perhaps the record looks more like 32-0-2-2.

Another subset of this statistic is looking at the horses who ran badly in their second last prep but came back to win their final prep. These horses compiled a record of 17-1-2-1, again Charismatic is included in this figure. It’s worth noting that the majority of the horses who did well in the Derby after running out of the frame in their second last prep did actually win their final prep. Of those who only managed to come back and run in the money their record is a much worse 16-0-0-1. Prince Of Thieves is the only outlier and he very nearly did win his final prep. He had a lot of trouble in the Lexington and missed by a scant nose.

Another way of judging the importance of the second last prep is to look at the speed figures of Derby winners. Grindstone, Monarchos, Smarty Jones and Real Quiet all earned their lifetime best Beyer Speed Figure in their second to last start. A good many more earned theirs in their final prep race but it seems that it is quite a negative factor if a horse does not earn their highest career Beyer Speed Figure within their last two starts. The cumulative record of those that did not is 49-2-1-1. Street Sense and Giacomo both earned their highest lifetime BSF three starts back. So perhaps the figure is becoming less relevant or maybe those two were simply outliers. Given the fact that Street Sense and Giacomo actually went against a good number of trends it’s possible that they are simply exceptions to the rule.

Statistics seem to indicate that running poorly in your second last prep is never a great thing, but in order to truly get back on track a horse should win their final prep and hopefully also earn a lifetime best Beyer Figure.

That will be a tall order for War Pass as he may be facing Denis Of Cork and Court Vision and his lifetime best Beyer is a lofty 113. That is not to say he can’t do it but I suspect it’ll be a tough road back for him and that he won’t manage it. The Derby Trail is a very tough road, slip ups are costly especially when they come in your last two preps.