Derby Top 10 - February 12th

1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (4)
3. Colonel John (2)
4. Court Vision (5)
5. Z Fortune (7)
6. Crown Of Thorns (8)
7. Into Mischief (6)
8. El Gato Malo (9)
9. Monba (10)
10. Tale Of Ekati (3)

The Kentucky Derby Trail is sometimes as much about proving that certain horses can’t win the Derby as it is proving that they can. In the end there are usually only 5 or fewer that truly look capable of winning the Derby so the lists should get shorter and shorter as time goes on. For me a whole bunch of horses proved themselves incapable this weekend. I know War Emblem, Real Quiet and Funny Cide all ran poorly in their first stakes attempts as 3yo’s but generally horses run badly because they really aren’t as good as they seemed. If any of the horses I dropped this week come back to win a nice race they’ll go back on the radar but I’m not holding my breath. Both Visionaire and Signature Move were taken off the radar. Both were close to a slow pace and failed to show very much. Visionaire did show some heart but he looks like a nice G-3 runner rather than a Derby winner. No sense keeping him on the list. Jockey Ridge and Massive Drama both appear to be well suited to shorter races and most likely they won’t make serious attempts at the Derby. Fidelio is still the only horse other than War Pass to beat Pyro but he has no recent workouts so while he might be a good horse eventually he’s not a Derby horse. Tale Of Ekati was the biggest downward mover in the top 10. I don’t like that Tagg is having problems bringing him around. He has talent but he still needs to show that he can do two turns effectively and the more his debut gets pushed back the less likely it is that he’ll have a solid enough foundation to win the Derby. Pyro is the hottest property in racing this week because of his visually appealing run in the Risen Star. To me that race did not make him heir apparent. I’m beginning to suspect that Pyro and War Pass are the only animals of true quality that we’ve seen so far. Z Fortune ran a solid race to be second and I think with some time he could become a very good Derby prospect but he needs to step it up big time. I thought his outside post hampered him just a bit in that it kept him wide the whole way around and he was also sent to the front nearly a full furlong sooner in the Risen Star than he was in the LeComte. I think he needs more patient handling instead of the classic “favorites ride”. But still it seemed as though he had a lot of work to do to get to Pyro’s level. The San Vicente was not a terribly inspiring race to me. I think Georgie Boy got a dream run and Into Mischief was the one who was really disadvantaged by the way things worked out. He either had to risk Massive Drama getting away or leave himself exposed to a late runner. Since Massive Drama already got away from him once his connections decided to keep him honest and that left the race on a plate for Georgie Boy. Two turns and a bigger field may produce a very different result. I like Georgie Boy’s consistency but I need to see him go long before I jump on the wagon. Halo Najib also ran a decent race at the OBS Championship. The fields are nothing worth noting but perhaps he’s ready to step back up to good company.  I am very much looking forward to Wise Answer’s race in the Sam Davis this coming weekend. Calder form is looking fairly strong and he was the best of that bunch. His speed has already been confirmed. What we need to see now is some class and stamina.

On the radar: Alaazo, Elysium Fields, Georgie Boy, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Atoned, Etched, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank, Denis Of Cork, J Be K, Giant Moon, Halo Najib

Dropped: Signature Move, Visionaire, Jockey Ridge, Fidelio, Massive Drama
———————————————————————————————

Based on my prognostication and analysis of the Derby Future Pool #1 I would have made the following plays at the closing prices.

Derby Pool #1
Denis of Cork (46/1)
Into Mischief (26/1)
Z Fortune (37/1)

I know I said I’d like Tale of Ekati at 25/1 or more and he wound up being 33/1 but news also came out over the weekend that Tagg was not thrilled with his training and would push back his first start into March. Not excellent news for a Derby prospect.

Weekend Overview: From a running style perspective this was a bit of a backwards weekend. A lot of the big stakes races on the main track went to closers while the two big turf races of the weekend were won by speed horses. Euroears remained undefeated with a win in the Colonel Power and Daytona remains the hottest Turf horse in the nation with his 4th straight win on the sod. Hendricks has done a great job with him. Indian Blessing also remained undefeated and while Proud Spell flashed a warning shot I think it’s impressive that Indian Blessing just keeps on winning. Georgie Boy, Pyro and Grasshopper all showed some serious intent in their 2008 debuts. The trio look set to have a good year.

Performance of the Week: Although Pyro did not receive a big Beyer Speed Figure in the Risen Star his performance is definitely getting the most attention. He was dead last coming into the stretch and had to weave in and out before finally getting clear sailing. Once he hit top gear the race was over and Bridgmohan was congratulating him before they hit the line. A very impressive race that was better than the figure will suggest. It is extremely difficult to close into a slow pace on the dirt but Pyro made it look simple.

Race of the Week: There is nothing I love more than watching closers mow down a field after looking hopelessly beaten. Pyro’s performance in the Risen Star was, to my eye, the most exciting race of the weekend but we can’t make this whole review about Pyro so I’ll give the nod to the Mineshaft Stakes where Grasshopper came through a bit of a tight seam to blast by Silver Lord. Grasshopper is a real horse for the future. Howard basically said the Mineshaft would just be a prep, he wouldn’t be fully cranked. I think most people who saw the race are now looking forward to what he could do at his best.

Flop of the Weekend: I hate to rag on the old champ Better Talk Now but his performance was well below par. I know Motion would not necessarily have wanted to win the race but it has to be discouraging that he never really lifted a hoof. In virtually all of his previous seasonal debuts he was at least flying in the end but he showed nothing here. I would not be shocked if this changed the Dubai plans.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Spring At Last is still the #1 ranked horse in the nation but the top 10 has become an eclectic mix of the various divisions. Seven of the eight divisions are represented in the current top 10. The only division not represented is the Female Turf which has had very few races thus far and there have been no dual stakes winners at all. G-1 winners Double Trouble and Golden Doc A moved to 5th and 6th overall while Indian Blessing remained second in the Three Year Old Female category. The decision to bypass a G-1 for a G-3 is the cause. The standings are remarkably accurate but they would reflect the on track quality even more if trainers campaigned as if they wanted to finish atop the standings.

Tip O’the Cap: I’m going to salute the solid Bsharpsonata and her small time connections for the recent run this filly has had. We know that Timothy Salzman knows his way around a sprinting filly but he so rarely gets a good one. Bsharpsonata has quietly won 4 of her last 5 starts, all of them in stakes races. She has won both sprints and routes on turf and dirt. Her most recent success came this past weekend when she won the G-2 Forward Gal at Gulfstream in the slop. She moved quickly through a gap on the rail and out dueled the even money favorite. She may not be the next Oaks winner but she’s a fantastic little horse.

KC Handicapping: Not a great week to go cold at the windows. I had been doing well recently, in fact this is my first losing week of 2008. But from 6 picks in 5 races I failed to net a single winner. Z Fortune, Proud Spell and Silver Lord all managed runner up spots but that is hardly a consolation. Sometimes it just goes like that. My longshot plays in the turf races did not pan out at all.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 6(5)-0-3-0 (-$12.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 39(28)-9-6-6 (+$1.80 +1.54% ROI)

The Risen Star just might have the Derby winner in it’s field.  It looks like a tough race and stronger than some of the Grade 1 races for this age group.  #8 Pyro would be a Derby favorite in many years with his come-from-behind style and Beyers of 100 and 105 in his two starts going a mile or further, but this year, he is only second fiddle.  If horses do recognize each other, Pyro should let out a sigh of relief in the paddock when he doesn’t see War Pass.  This time, if he’s “too little too late” once again, people may begin his seconditis isn’t just due to the brilliant speed of War Pass.  #11 Z Fortune, his stablemate, is the most likely to upset him.  He likely will get running a bit sooner than Pyro, and therefore have first jump.  #3 Visionaire has improved quite a bit in each start, and if that continues, look out.  It’s a huge test of class for this horse here.  #9 Signature Move is the polytrack wildcard.  Post horses numbers improve when they switch from poly to real dirt, and I expect the same will be true of Signature Move.  Still, even a 10-point improvement only puts him 3rd or 4th in this race.  Another thing that may help him is that all the top rated horses in this race are closers.  He could steal this.  A slow or moderate pace would also help Prince Cortez, who could surprise people here.  The other horse the pace would help is Unbridled Vicar.  He doesn’t appear fast enough to win, but always gives an honest effort. 

$2 tri Pyro/Z Fortune over

Pyro/Z Fortune/Signature Move/Visionaire

over

Pyro/Z Fortune/Signature Move/Visionaire/Blackberry Road/Prince Cortez

(2×3x4=$48)

$2 tri Signature Move/Pyro/Z Fortune

total: $50

Colonel Power Stakes
The Fair Grounds has some excellent racing this weekend and this is the first of many from the New Orleans oval that has caught my fancy. The undefeated Euroears looks like spectacular value at 4/1 but I’m actually going to oppose him because I think he’ll be 7/5 by post time. The outside post is a disadvantage but the public loves and undefeated horse. Especially one who beat the second favorite last time out and is coming back to a surface where he beat another solid contender easily. Stormin Baghdad has to be respected because he is from Asmussen’s barn and because he showed he was close to Euroears in ability but this is his first try on Turf and he does not seem to have near as much room for improvement as Euroears. So far I’ve said I’m going to oppose Euroears but then I’ve said nothing but good about him. Well here is the reason why. I think the pace will play against him. There is a lot of speed in the race as you’d expect in a sprint but there is also a very high quality closer. Fort Prado was a bit of a turf phenom early in his career. Now the 7yo gelding has found a new lease on life as a sprinter. His win in the Woodford Reserve against a very tough TD Vance is more than good enough to win this. He has good historic form over the track and the reduced distance has really sharpened his late kick. He has been working fantastically for this race. I expect a big run from him to deny Euroears late.

Fort Prado

Mineshaft Handicap
I really hope Silver Lord stays in this race instead of the Essex at Oaklawn. Because you likely won’t get a price on him at Oaklawn but with Grasshopper in the race a decent price is there to be had. I don’t know if Silver Lord will eventually prove to be better than Grasshopper but do think he’ll have a pace advantage and a recency advantage. Neil Howard is definitely looking down the road with Grasshopper and all he wants is a good effort from him. Silver Lord is running to prove to his connections that he could have a bright future. He was absolutely fantastic in his last race if he runs like that again he will be tough. I have not mentioned Magna Graduate yet because I think he’s one of those horses who sucks you in. He is almost always well bet and he is far from a consistent winner. I’d rather use him underneath the speedy and improving Silver Lord.

Silver Lord

Fair Grounds Handicap
If the first two races were enticing, this is downright mouthwatering. It’s one of those races that you just feel like there are tons of opportunities. Better Talk Now is the hot pot and I think he is definitely better than all of these horses on his best day. But he’s 9 years old now and his only race at the Fair Grounds saw him run very badly while favored. It’s tough to predict lifetime best form with any confidence. Those who have read this space for the last bit will know that I love Inca King’s prospects as a turf miler but in this race I’m a little wary of his chances. I will be cheering for him but I won’t play him for any better than second or third. The outside post is cruel and the pace should be on the fast side with Daytona in here. I think Inca King will make the lead at the head of the stretch but his lack of stamina will show and he’ll get caught. I’ve played Sterwins and French Beret in the last two big turf routes at the FG with good success. I think it’s time to get off the French Beret bandwagon though. I think he’s a step too slow. Sterwins on the other hand does have an outsiders chance. I do not like 6/1 on him but when the ground is firm (which it should be) Sterwins is a very tough horse. I think he is a must use in exotics and maybe even for the win spot if the price is right. I don’t like Daytona at all, I’ll let him beat me. One horse that makes me raise an eyebrow is Baby First. You have to ask why this horse shipped all the way across the country for this race. It was likely for companionship for Signature Move who runs in the Risen Star but Baby First could step up and be a real threat. I think for this race though I’ve settled on Silverfoot. There are a few things I really like about him. The first is that his best race is just about as good as Better Talk Now’s. If BTN does bring his best stuff Silverfoot is the only horse with a chance. Another thing I like about him is that he’s a good quality closer in a race with decent speed, he’s also got a very patient rider in Leparoux, he typically excels with closers. He never raced at all in 2007 because of injury and he did look rusty in his last. But he closed well enough to suggest that some of the old flash is still there. It’s hard to imagine that Stewart would have had him cranked for that one. He’s had two nice works since then and could be primed to upset this race. I will likely chicken out and use Better Talk Now as well. Because of Daytona and Inca King you might actually get 5/2 or more on him. That’s a good price for the best horse.

Silverfoot
Better Talk Now

Silverbulletday Stakes
I’m looking for Indian Blessing to get beat. In fact I’m fairly confident that she get beat. Proud Spell should take her revenge in round 2 of this rivalry. Indian Blessing did not look great in her last. It may have been because of Cushion track but 4/5 is ridiculous on her. Proud Spell gave her a pretty decent race in the BC Juvenile Fillies, a race I thought she was poorly prepared for. Jones is already making plans to take the promising Eight Belles out of town to stay away from Proud Spell and I think she claims the scalp of the champion here. She can sit in and stalk any pace setup and Jolie The Cat will likely push Indian Blessing from the off.

Proud Spell

Risen Star Stakes
I suppose I’m hoping for a real gray day at the Fair Grounds because Fort Prado, Silver Lord and Silverfoot are all grays and I love another gray in here as well. Z Fortune will in my estimation, prove to be better than Pyro and Visionaire. His performance in the Lecomte was the best performance by a 3yo to date in my opinion and I think his tactical speed will help him to overcome his rivals who will be hoping for a pace meltdown. There is no denying the class of Pyro but it is also difficult to overlook the fact that he doesn’t win. He looked like a good gamble to overtake War Pass in the Juvenile after his Champagne performance but he ended up getting beaten by even more. He may not be mentally up to winning and in Z Fortune he’ll find a quick adversary who might be gone before he gets rolling. Despite the confidence of Eric Guillot I’m playing against Signature Move. If he wins this race he’s a fantastic horse. Visionaire should also run well but I think the Matz trainee will be hard pressed to out close Pyro so even if the pair of them get to Z Fortune it’s hard to see him winning, but I do prefer him to Blackberry Road. Let’s hope it’s a good day for grays!

Z Fortune

We continue down the Derby trail looking for ways that statistics can help us. Since we’re still early on many of the main contenders have not yet run as 3yo’s so we’re left to ponder their Derby abilities based mainly off of their 2yo form. In fact 12 of the 23 single wagering interests in the first Future Bet pool have yet to race in 2008.

So what are some signs that we can take from 2yo campaigns? In prior posts this year we already looked at Juveniles who ran a 100+ Beyer Speed Figure. They compiled a sturdy 27-5-2-2 record and showed a positive ROI.

Horses who did not run as 2yo’s are a pretty shabby 44-0-1-2 going all the way back to 1955.

Until last year the Juvenile Jinx hung heavy over the most accomplished 2yo’s but it never really had relevance as a jinx. I think there is perhaps something to the notion that 2yo G-1 winners sometimes struggle to be as good come Derby time but it was not limited to the Juvenile itself. Unfortunately the media seemed to love the juvenile jinx because it gave them something to talk about. The roses had barely wilted last year when some journalist mentioned that no second place finisher in the Juvenile has managed to win the Derby.

I think it’s worth taking a closer look at that one especially with Pyro so highly regarded this year. Big shots like Point Given, Afleet Alex and Easy Goer all failed on Derby day after a runner up finish on BC day. Overall 2nd place juvenile finishers have gone 10-0-1-2, not unlike the record of BC Juvenile winners which is 14-1-0-2. Afleet Alex, Easy Goer and Blumin Affair managed to hit the frame in both the Juvenile and Derby. But like the Juvenile Jinx itself the Runner Up Jinx has little validity. Especially when you consider that two 3rd place Juvenile finishers have won the Derby (Alysheba, Spend A Buck).

I realize Alysheba and Spend a Buck were a long time ago but I took a look at how all Derby starters who finished in the frame in a G-1 fared and the results are more or less in line. In the last 12 years 40 Derby starters ran first, second or third in a G-1 as a Juvenile and they had a Derby record of 40-3-1-2. It is by no means a stellar record and is basically the type of numbers you get from just the Juvenile runners.

There is no jinx for juvenile winners or runner ups there is simply a principle that many horses who are good enough to win or run in the money in a G-1 as a 2yo are no longer superior to their peers to the point that they can win the Derby.

Obviously not all 2yo form should be thrown out the window and on the face of it these conclusions seem to contradict my post concerning fast juveniles. But of the 40 G-1 winners, or in the money finishers, only 14 of them ran 100+ Beyer Speed Figures. Those 14 compiled a record of 14-2-1-1 and another 5 of them finished among the top 5 in the Derby. So juvenile G-1 winners or in the money finishers who failed to run a 100+ Beyer went 26-1-0-1. Only Giacomo and Cat Thief managed to overcome that, and only one other (Prime Timber) of the 26 even cracked the top 5 in the Derby.

This angle would seem to suggest that Colonel John, Z Humor, Majestic Warrior, Georgie Boy and Into Mischief are slightly up against it.

As a rule I do not play the Derby Future Wager but there is a certain attraction inherent in selecting the winner of a major event months beforehand and getting generous odds for that selection. There is something about human nature that makes us want to be able to say that we knew this horse was a Derby winner right from their first start. The Future Wager allows us to have hard evidence of our foresight. Although more often it’s a reminder that we’re not as smart as we think we are.

It is quite a risk though. Just to give you an idea of how risky it is, the first pool in the Future Wager has yielded on average 38% Derby starters. That means that just 8 or 9 horses can be expected to make it to the Derby from the list of 23. An even lower percentage actually makes it to the Derby at a shorter price than they are listed in Pool #1.

Still you can make money if you have the winner and going over the possibilities is quite fun. If you do plan on playing the Pool make sure to wait until Sunday afternoon. The odds can change dramatically, especially among the horses who are actually running this weekend. Here would be my suggestions for Pool #1.

Colonel John (30/1) - He absolutely jumps off the page at 30/1, I’m not quite sure what the line maker was thinking but perhaps with his next race not slated until the 1st of March he could be a forgotten horse. He is not exactly a hot horse since losing in the Hollywood Futurity but Colonel John is still an excellent Derby candidate. He has already proven himself to be faster than a horse like Court Vision even though he’s been on a slower surface his whole career. Court Vision is 12/1. Anything over 20/1 merits a play on Colonel John.

Crown Of Thorns (20/1) - I really don’t want him lower than 20/1 but it is difficult to predict how he’ll be bet. Once the weekend racing starts the focus tends to shift to those horses. So I expect his price to drift Saturday and Sunday but his performance is still fresh in the minds so he might get a lot of early money. It’s hard to be pessimistic with his on track performances. He does need to improve but so does nearly every single contender. I love the look of this guy.

Denis Of Cork (30/1) - His Beyer figures are low but he has not in stakes company yet so it’s not all that shocking. Neither Grindstone nor War Emblem were terribly quick at this stage. What I like about Denis is 1) He’s an undefeated closer, it’s rare for a young horse to have consistent success coming from the back and 2) He’s going to be taking the Oaklawn route of the Southwest, Rebel and Arkansas Derby. If he is any good at all he should win the Southwest and do very well in the Rebel so this may be the last chance to get on at a good price. A good price for me is 30/1 or more, preferably 40/1 or more because he still has all to prove. He is well positioned to do it but that doesn’t count in the final reckoning.

Into Mischief (20/1) - I like this horse very much but I need him at 20/1 or more to be interested and with his likely participation in the San Vicente you may not get that price. On the other hand if he loses you may get that price. A loss in a 7f sprint race would not be the end of the world for him. I like the form of the Hollywood Futurity very much and he was the best of the lot on that day.

Monba (30/1) - Another Hollywood Futurity horse with a very generous price. I know Pletcher has never won the Derby and that this horse has never won a stakes race but there are a few decent vibes in his camp. He had a terrible trip at Hollywood but was making up huge amounts of ground. The visual impression was that he was at least as good as the in the money finishers. He has run over 3 different tracks including Churchill and he handled them all. No real guidance on what his TC prep campaign will look like but he’s in Florida so one would assume either Tampa or Gulfstream. It’s been a while since his name hit the headlines so he may stay around 30/1.

Tale Of Ekati (20/1) - He has always had a buzz around him so I don’t think this play will come off but I do like him at 25/1 or more. He has plenty of talent and I thought he stuck on admirably on BC day. He may be picky surface wise but you can’t outright ignore horses with a good turn of foot running for a Derby winning trainer.

War Pass (12/1) - I really don’t know what the public is going to do with War Pass but I would consider this play based on the vibes of the general public. Everyone is down on War Pass all of the sudden it seems and if you could get 15/1 on this monster its a very early Christmas gift. We don’t know if he’ll handle the distance and the slight bout of colic was not a positive but if you need reminding how good he actually is watch a few of his races. No one has ever gotten near him. His Speed Figures are out of this world and he’s working towards a debut sometime soon, likely within the next two weeks. If he shows up as good as he was last year he’ll be odds on in every race to the Derby and 4/1 in the next pool. 12/1 or better is pretty fair for a horse this good.

Z Fortune (20/1) - I don’t know what’s going to happen with him because if he beats Pyro in the Risen Star he might be the new Derby favorite. The Risen Star is run while the pool is open so you’ll definitely have to play this one later on. Perhaps I’m dreaming but I have an outside hope that his price may stay in this area if Pyro wins. Z Fortune still owns what is, in my opinion, the best 3yo performance year to date and he’s never been beaten.

Possibly the most popular North American horse racing competition on the internet. If you haven’t signed up yet just visit this link and get started. Just about everyone looks forward to this competition and there is a lot of chatter going around about who is running where and who you should pick in your stable.

I have played this game for many years and I’ve come up with a few strategic tips that they don’t necessarily cover in the Playing Tips section of the RTTR website.

#1. Have patience - So many people have already signed up their stables despite the fact that the first scoring races aren’t until Saturday and you can wait right up to 11:59 eastern on Saturday to pick your stable. I see no reason to lock in a stable now when you could wait for this weekend’s entries. This applies to the supplemental stages as well. You don’t get bonus points for switching things around before they’re due. Also give consideration to the strategy of not signing up yet. You may miss out on a few points this weekend but strategically it could help you to win a weekly prize or even a stage prize if you hold off for a bit. Consider this coming weekend as an example. Almost everyone will take Pyro, however if he happens to perform badly or God forbid gets injured you’d be ahead of the curve by holding off and not taking him.

#2 Keep good records of horses intended schedules - I do this with the aid of a spreadsheet. Every morning as I read the news I just keep it handy so I can jot down any news blip on the contenders. Things still change of course but it gives you a good picture of who is likely. Here is a sample of my spreadsheet to date. More names will get filled in as things become clearer.

#3 Try to get horses on every circuit - There are so many different paths horses can take, between SA, TB, NY, GP, OP and TP you’ve got a ton of bases to cover. All of those tracks offer multiple preps and you’ll usually find horses just following the sequence. Since you can only have 5 runners active at one time try to make sure you’ve diversified so you’ll have a horse in nearly every race and on different weekends.

#4 Try to stay with horses who are going to run in the first stage - In your original 10 there is very little reason to take horses who will not be running in a stakes race until March 15th or later. The only one I can think of is if there are more than 3 horses who fit that description who you just have to take. Otherwise there is no reason to jump on board so quickly. As far as I’m aware War Pass, El Gato Malo, Cowboy Cal and Majestic Warrior are not running in eligible stakes races until at least stage 2 of this competition. Why bear the burden of risk for that long when you can simply add them at the supplemental stage.

#5 Ignore Sprinters - For the first year ever the RTTR game has revised the eligible race schedule and has eliminated all but one sprint race, the San Vincente, which is the current target for Into Mischief. In past years it was a good play to take a horse that might run in the Swale, Bay Shore and Lafayette but that angle is gone.

#6 Don’t limit your focus to just the Grand Prize - There are some very nice prizes available for winning the individual stages and even a nice weekly prize. It wouldn’t be a terrible idea to try and target one of those. By stacking your stable for a certain week you could do very well. If you are entered in the pay to play option you may want to consider only aiming one stable at the grand prize and staggering the other two stables to target stage and weekly prizes. Entering late on weeks where there are very few races is a good way to try and win a weekly prize.

#7 Identify trainers and jockeys that will WIN races - Remember you only get trainer and jockey points if they win the race so although Zito and Mott have loaded stables they may not necessarily be the best trainers to take. Sometimes the big fish in a small pond angle is the a real point machine. If a certain trainer has a hotshot who he plans to campaign exclusively in Northern California or maybe Oaklawn Park it might be worth taking them. If that horse can run the table your trainer could make a bundle.

#8 Forget winning the Derby, focus on winning the preps - Although this game is about the Derby you need to dominate the prep races in order to be in contention once the Derby comes around. You’ll have plenty of time to add the horses you think will win the Derby at the last supplemental stage. In the meantime go for the horses that you see winning preps right now. Horses like High Fly, Scat Daddy and Balto Star were viewed with a skeptical eye in regards to the Derby but they were RTTR studs. Even Cowtown Cat was a very solid play last year. He outperformed Any Given Saturday, Dominican and Tiago as well many others.

#9 Don’t be afraid to take a shot - There are upsets every single year on the Triple Crown trail and some of them are huge upsets. It happens because horses are improving and we don’t know how good they’ll eventually be but also some are more prepared for certain spots than others might be. For a small time trainer the Rebel and Louisiana Derby are the main targets of the year. For War Pass and Court Vision races like that are just preps and connections are sometimes less concerned with winning them. Just be sure that the shot you’re taking is on a horse who is definitely destined for stakes company.

Derby Top 10 - February 5th

1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Z Fortune (9)
8. Crown Of Thorns (new)
9. El Gato Malo (10)
10. Monba (new)

A slight shuffling in the top 10 this week after a nice performance by Crown Of Thorns and a re-evaluation of a couple of the contenders. Kodiak Kowboy was dropped from the Top 10 after his latest few works indicate that he’s still a good ways off his first start of the year. He may not even get going until March. Considering that he was also questionable to be a route horse in the first place I think the time has come to drop him. I still respect his class and he is the kind of horse who should run well no matter where he is put. But do I realistically see him beating every other 3yo on the first Saturday in May? No, I don’t. The axe also fell on Country Star, through no real fault of her own but it is looking increasingly like she won’t run in the Derby. As of right now I believe she is only set to have one prep race before the Oaks and Derby and her connections have still not indicated that the Derby is a possibility. Now onto the more positive news. Crown Of Thorns appeared to be a real star in the making when he broke his maiden. He confirmed that impression this weekend in the Robert Lewis. The field was not extremely tough but he did beat Indian Sun by the same margin as El Gato Malo. He is a beautifully horse and is bred to run all day, I love Mandella as a trainer and he has such a quick and handy turn of foot. He used it to good effect when a hole on the rail opened up. He shot right through and then showed even more maturity when responding to urging. It was good that Coast Guard made him run a little but in the end it was clear that Crown Of Thorns was a far better horse. I’d be really excited to have this one. If this list were based solely on 3yo form he would be ranked second only to Z Fortune. His next race should come against the tough Colonel John but I would not necessarily bet against him. The second best race of the weekend by a 3yo was run by Alaazo who moves to the top of the radar list. You will not find a horse who is better bred for this race. By AP Indy out of Atelier and trained by Bill Mott Alaazo has all the tools. Not a brilliant horse by any means he still seems to have success in spite of not paying much attention. He never looks as if he’s really putting his head down and getting to business. On Monday he won his second lifetime start in a 9f allowance at Gulfstream. His pilot seemed to have to keep him interested on the backside but he simply ambled his way to the front once the real running started. He gives the impression that with time and maturity he will be much more than he is at this stage. Although Barrier Reef earned a 94 BSF in the Whirlaway (which is very solid for this time of year) I was not sufficiently impressed with either he or Roman Emperor to add the to the radar. They did give Giant Moon a good form reference but I think this pair is destined to be second class. This coming weekend features the Risen Star where we will get a lot of guidance because Pyro, Z Fortune, Signature Move and Visionaire are all set to clash as well as a few other solid contenders. Anyone who finishes in the top three must be considered a legitimate Derby contender.

On the radar: Alaazo, Signature Move, Elysium Fields, Visionaire, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Jockey Ridge, Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank, Denis Of Cork, Giant Moon

Dropped: Kodiak Kowboy (7), Country Star (8)

Weekend Overview: It was supposed to be the unveiling of a new superstar instead it was just the recognition of an under rated horse. Daaher turned out to be not so super and Spring At Last is no longer the best horse you’ve never heard of. I don’t believe that he’s true championship quality but this is a solid little horse who has been running very well since last spring. Even his effort in the Big Cap last year was a good one, he just doesn’t have enough stamina to go 10f. The BC Mile and Dirt Mile could be realistic year end targets for him.

Performance of the Week: I loved the swashbuckling ride Flores gave Monterey Jazz. He went straight to the front and ran his rivals right off their feet in impressive style. Everyone else in the race assumed that he was going far too fast to sustain that pace but the Jazz had plenty in his tank. After a slow start to his career Monterey Jazz is now a stakes winner on two different surfaces and he gives his connections tons of options for his campaign.

Race of the Week: I thought the Whirlaway was quite a good contest. Roman Emperor and Barrier Reef both ran great races and earned very solid Beyers for a race of this class. Roman Emperor did most of the donkey work early on but Barrier Reef caught the eye with a nice quick move on the turn. I loved how Roman Emperor would not quit once passed by Barrier Reef who still seemed full of run. I was quite a stretch battle.

Flop of the Weekend: Both G-1 races produced massive flops. Daaher simply looked terrible. He went way too fast early on but he also never showed any fight at all. I have to think it just wasn’t his day or something else was bothering him because horses who come to run stick around a bit even if they go too fast early. Daaher was a major disappointment and he’s got a ton of rebounding to do. Hystericalady was perhaps less of a disappointment because less was expected of her. But she was also facing much easier horses. She didn’t go that fast early and like Daaher she was struggling as soon as the real running began. It was not an encouraging performance by a filly who pretty much started the year being regarded as the best in the West.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Spring At Last is our new overall leader eclipsing In Summation and his pair of stakes wins. Spring At Last is not a really a realistic candidate for Horse of the Year given the type of campaign he is set to have. Despite the huge money on offer in Dubai only one Dubai World Cup winner has managed to finish a top the TCR Standings. Pleasantly Perfect did it in 2004 but then his main competition stateside failed to run enough to get past him. Intangaroo was a surprising winner of the Santa Monica and is also the surprising leader of the FM Sprint division. Given the relative weakness of this group last year it’s not hard to see this underdog stay atop that division for a while.

Tip O’the Cap: I’ve got a soft spot for fellow Canadians. Horses like Daaher, Buffalo Man and Leonnatus Anteas will get a fair bit of mention on this space if they continue to have success but for this week I’d like to recognize another top Canadian Emma-Jayne Wilson. This brave jockey took on the boys at Woodbine and was a huge success and she’s now turned her hand to Hong Kong for the winter becoming the first women to be licensed there. I wish her all the best and I tip my hat to her courage and pioneering spirit.

KC Handicapping: Another slight profit was made thanks to Eaton’s Gift. He looked every bit as good as I hoped he would. Unfortunately his connections will stretch him out and try to make a Derby horse out of him. I say start looking at the King’s Bishop as the target. Daaher was immensely disappointing and Mr Napper Tandy ran his habitual second. It’s a shame I lacked the confidence to go with Monterey Jazz. I like him a fair bit but decided not to highlight him here. Faint hearts never won big money.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 4(3)-1-1-0 (+$1.60 +20.00% ROI)
Overall record: 33(23)-9-3-6 (+$13.80 +20.91% ROI)

Swale Stakes
Generally as I handicap I like to stay on the side of the speed figures. Whether they be Beyer or BRISnet figures I generally prefer to take horses who look competitive with the rest of the field. In this race however I’m going to deviate from that stance a little and go with a visual impression over what the sheets tell me. Anyone who read my take on the Hollywood Futurity knows that I think quite a bit of Eaton’s Gift. His performance at Keeneland made a big impression on me and since then he’s confirmed that he is indeed a very quick horse and that he isn’t going to stretch out that effectively. The trouble is that his speed figures are not really up to scratch with those of Silver Edition and Wincat. Both of those horses look extremely good and I can only make two cases to see them beaten. A) They’ll regress or B) Someone will step up and run a big race to deny them. I have no real evidence of A, they might regress but nothing on paper points to it necessarily unless you like to play against big figure maidens next out. Wincat would fit that profile but everything suggests that he is simply a good horse. I’m going to take a shot hoping that Eaton’s Gift is a better one on the day. He is the fastest horse in the race and he has the inside. No secret here, straight to the front and hope his speed kills the rest of them off. St Joe also has speed but I think he’ll end up chasing the freewheeling Eaton’s Gift. I’d probably need at least 5/1 to consider this a good play.

Eaton’s Gift

Donn Handicap
It doesn’t take a master handicapper to come up with Daaher in this race. He’s not exactly a secret anymore, but I’ve been on the bandwagon since last June and I didn’t want to pass up the chance to weigh in. I think Daaher is truly top class and if I’m on the mark he should beat this group a shade easily. Not to disparage these horses because many of them are solid but any horse who wishes to take on Curlin needs to be capable of beating this group. The pace is a bit of a question mark. Since adding blinkers the Pocket Rocket has been taking the bull by the horses and simply dominating his races on the front end. Prior to that though he would close from well back so the ability to rate seems to be there. There is a healthy amount of pace here so I would assume that we’ll see Daaher get the classic “favorites ride”. About a length and a half off the leaders 3 wide the whole way around and attacking the lead on the far turn. If they go too quick early on then horses like AP Arrow, Brass Hat and Wood Be Willing could find themselves in the money. The #1 danger to Daaher in my opinion is Spring At Last. Last year at this time he was a bit of an underrated horse and because of his sparse campaign he still may not be well backed. But he is very talented and should get a nice stalking trip in the pocket. His best distance is a shade shorter but he’s still a tough horse at 9 panels and he should come on for his last run. An absolute bomb for a spot beneath Daaher is Wood Be Willing. He’s been a turf horse most of his life but his form off the Turf has been decent without being spectacular. Jerkens is the Giant Killer and although Daaher is a travel sized champ Jerkens may still be working up some magic.

Daaher

Thunder Road Handicap
I often find myself being sucked into playing 8f Turf Stakes races. I suppose most of us have our favorite conditions and this is mine, I find myself often doing decently in these types of races which is likely what draws me in. Now having said that this race will likely fall into the 70 odd percent that I lose this type of race. I truly hope Awesome Gem stays in, although I don’t think it’s likely. He would make the prices of everyone else very good and he would be quite beatable. There is a real lack of pace in this race Lang Field will surely lead it early and the question will be whether or not It’s A Bird keeps him honest. Lang Field is a quality horse who for some reason never runs as well at a flat mile. I think the pace usually ends up being hotter in mile races and he’s doesn’t have the stuff to carry his speed. Art Sherman is also 0 for 15 at the meet without even having a horse hit the board. Despite his speed advantage I’m playing against Lang Field. My real reason for mentioning the pace was to ponder if a one run closer would have enough to beat the stalkers. Mr Napper Tandy is the best miler inthe race but he’s often been guilty of too little too late. He’s had 6 second place finishes in 9 races. But he’s a quality horse and if the Mig gets him rolling in time he’s the winner of this heat. I’m not really in love with anyone else’s chances here. Night Chapter is good at the distance but my feeling is that he’s simply too slow even at his best. Isipingo would be the alternate choice for me. He’s a stalker with class and while it appears like his best race is further than a mile you can’t ignore the fact the he once ran within 2 lengths of Crossing The Line at this distance. That kind of form should be good enough.

Mr Napper Tandy
Isipingo