Santa Anita Handicap
What a race, the Big Cap is still a big draw and while we haven’t got any superstars we do have a superb lineup that is both accomplished and evenly matched. My first time looking over the PP’s I had no idea what to do with this race. My second time over the PP’s I decided that it was impossible. They say the third time is the charm so on my third try I attempted to look at the race from a bit of a historical profile standpoint. I’ve seen a fair amount of Big Cap’s and I’ve got the data for some even that I haven’t seen. Since this race seems so wide open it’s hard to find an edge. A few statistics might give us that edge. The first thing I like to see is who is actually fast enough on their best day to beat this group. By my measurement Medici Code, Air Commander, Seminole Native and Student Council are all too slow. Most Big Cap winners (aside from Milwaukee Brew) also had a recent win. At least one in their last 3 starts and a good many of them were coming off a sharp win. That is a bad sign for Tiago and Awesome Gem, although both of them more than fit the Milwaukee Brew type profile. Given the prices on those two it’s likely better to stay away from them. Great Hunter, Celtic Dreamin and Big Booster have also all failed to win a race recently. Another thing I noticed was that horses who are newly into a form cycle have dominated. That means if a horses has had more than 3 races since their last layoff they have typically not done as well. Zappa and Heatseeker have been going nonstop since last May. This might not be the best time for them to have the toughest tests of their life, both in terms of the quality of opposition and the distance. That leaves me with Champs Elysees, Monterey Jazz and Go Between as the most likely winners. Monterey Jazz is the hot horse and I’m deathly afraid of him because of the pace setup. He’ll likely get things all his own way but at the same time I really think his last race was one of those scenario’s where everything lines up perfectly and you get a freak out performance as a result. 10f will be a tough task for this son of Thunderello and despite his razor sharp form I’ll go against him. That leaves us with Champs Elysees and Go Between by process of elimination. Champs Elysees is a total wildcard, he has always struggled to perform up to expectations on the grass. Despite running well in both races in America I must confess that he nearly put me to sleep both times. He doesn’t really have the flash on turf like his relatives did perhaps a move to an All Weather surface will finally bring the best out of him. Go Between would seem like a much safer bet. All Weather surfaces have definitely made a new horse out of him and I do not expect him to be as far back as he was last time out. The 12 post is a worry but with so little speed in here and the long run up Gomez should have no trouble tucking in before they get to the first turn. I’ll be using Go Between and Champs Elysees on top with Tiago, Awesome Gem and Monterey Jazz underneath.

Go Between
Champs Elysees

Davona Dale Stakes
Although there is a short field for this race I do think that it’s a chance to make some money. Perhaps not a lot of money, the top two choices really standout but money is money. Essentially I think Game Face and Bsharpsonata lay over this field and Game Face may even be streets ahead of Bsharpsonata. Pletcher’s top filly may actually be his top 3yo since the males have not panned out well so far. Game Face looks like the real deal and Pletcher is very good at getting them to perform first time they stretch out. American County should dictate the pace but she seems to be quite limited stamina wise. I know she has not yet tried longer distances but she looks like an out and out sprinter. 8f around one turn is a very tough race for early speed because you essentially have to sprint the entire way. Game Face settles beautifully and seems to be able to move whenever asked. The plucky Bsharpsonata is a dangerous horse to underestimate but I think there are limits to her talent. No one can question her heart or versatility and I hope she runs very well but I think Game Face will be too much for her. A straight exacta on those two could end up being good value. The payout won’t be big but the probability is very good.

Game Face

“How deserted lies the city,
once so full of people!
How like a widow is she,
who once was great among the nations!

……How the gold has lost its luster,
the fine gold become dull!
The sacred gems are scattered
at the head of every street.”

Lamentations 1:1, 4:1

Over dramatic? Perhaps, but one can’t help but see the parallel’s. The first paragraph or verse is rather more a prediction of what may become of the Breeders’ Cup if they choose to stick with the new modus operandi. Adding new races and putting all the Filly and Mare races on a single, less important, day does little to enhance the Breeders’ Cups image as racing’s championship event. Instead it seemingly relegates the female races to a lesser status. Hopefully it does not come to this but it is quite possible that Breeders’ Cup Friday will become the forgotten day. It in the eyes of the media it certainly will be. I hate to see that happen to the Distaff (yes, the DISTAFF) but it would serve them right if Friday was comparatively deserted.

The renaming of the Distaff is simply ridiculous. I could see a case being made to change the name but why on God’s green earth did they choose the name “Ladies Classic”. How about Filly and Mare Classic? You know, like an accurate description of what the race actually is or even just for the sake of continuity. Choosing “Ladies Classic” as the new moniker is just the newest in a long line of terrible decisions made by the Breeders’ Cup. I don’t like to call particular people out but the ship started taking on water when Avioli was named CEO and I don’t think they’ve made a smart decision since.

The second passage quoted I think is a decent analogy of what the Breeders’ Cup has already done. They’ve taken something that was valuable and precious and made it cheap and common. By creating a Breeders’ Cup race for every single niche they’ve tarnished the glory of being a Breeders’ Cup winner. It is no longer truly racings championship event. It is simply just another individualistic facet within racing that is seeking to earn as much money for itself as it can.

There is nothing wrong with wanting to make money but it has meant leaving the original vision of the Breeders’ Cup far behind. That is worth lamenting.

I know you’re all opening a new browser window to find out what the title means. To save you a little time: Spurious is essentially defined as something that is plausible but ultimately deceptive. I think that is an apt description of speed figures. They look pretty straightforward and some people take them at face value but the deception lies in the fact that singular figures are very misleading.

The last 5 horses that entered the Derby off the highest last out Beyer Speed Figure all lost and only two of them even hit the board. Since the inception of Beyer Speed Figures the horses who could boast of having earned the highest figure in their final Derby prep went just 5 for 21. It may be seen as decent performance but these horses are often favored. 3 of the 5 winners were actually just the co-highest earners and some of them like Charismatic did get overlooked. But in general you’ll have horses like The Cliffs Edge, Empire Maker and Bellamy Road.

Certainly there is a connection between speed and winning the Derby. The horse that runs the fastest race on the day gets to the line first and more often than not they receive a nice Beyer Speed Figure for that performance. The Average Derby winning Speed Figure since 1993 is 109.47. The record of horses that ran a 109 or more prior to the Derby is 23-4-2-2. That is a fairly successful group in isolation however you will find many years, like 2006 for example, that had no horses who had run a 109 prior to the Derby.

Another popular Beyer Speed Figure guideline is the 105 mark. Trainers are hoping that the Derby is their charges best performance ever. Many horses are still improving so it is not necessarily accurate to expect them to run fast enough to win the Derby prior to the Derby. The 105 mark became the benchmark because the majority of Derby winners had run that number. In the last 12 years there have been 62 horses that ran a 105 or more in a two turn race as a 3yo. Their cumulative record is 62-8-5-6, a flat bet on all of them nets you a tidy 64% ROI. So again we see a decent performance and a good return on investment as well. The problem with this statistic again is that in certain years you won’t have any horses that ran a 105 in a prep. Is it then safe to conclude that no horses in that race are fast enough to win the Derby?

The obvious answer is that a horse will always win the Derby no matter how slow it is run. Horses do not have to win any past runnings of the race they only must beat the competition they face on that particular day. To truly come up with a number to determine who is fast enough to win the Derby you have to look at each Derby separately. The trick is finding out whether or not the horse is fast enough to win this Derby.

The method I came up with to quantify this idea is taking the average of every winning Beyer figure achieved in two turn graded prep races. But I only included the races that were represented in the Derby itself. For instance what bearing would the Arkansas Derby have on the Kentucky Derby is no one from that race was running?

What I found was that it eliminated far fewer horses but most importantly (and not surprisingly) every single Derby winner in the last 12 years was “fast enough” to win their Derby. The most important part of this factor is not the horses that it includes (which compiled a record of 124-12-9-11) but rather it is most useful for identifying horses to toss. Horses who did not achieve a Beyer Speed Figure that was equal or superior to the average two turn prep winning figure compiled a record of 89-0-3-1.

That’s right, 89 starters and no winners, only 4 of them even managed to hit the board. 41% of the Derby starters in the last 12 years were not fast enough to win the race and almost none of them ran well. That is the real value of this statistic.

The downside to using this method is that it’s not exactly clear who is or isn’t fast enough until the Derby field has been drawn. In this day and age we seem to want to able to figure these things out months in advance. But there are a few ways you can rough a idea. In the last 12 years the average Beyer necessary to be “Fast Enough” has always been somewhere between 97 and 106.

I also have data from all the TC for 2004 to the present and a look at the average Beyers achieved so far in the prep races can give you a rough idea of how fast the current crop is.

Two Turn Prep Beyer Average (Jan-Feb)
2004 - 92.53
2005 - 90.92
2006 - 96.00
2007 - 91.86
2008 - 90.61

As you can see this year’s prep races in January and February are the slowest in the last 5 years. They most closely compare with 2005 when Giacomo was the eventual winner. That may be slightly tempered by the fact that Santa Anita’s prep races are being run on a different surface this year so the figures might be skewed. But overall the crop looks quite slow. It would not shock me if 97 ended up being the “Fast Enough” figure this year.

Derby Top 10 - February 26th

1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (2)
3. Colonel John (3)
4. Z Fortune (5)
5. Cool Coal Man (new)
6. Into Mischief (7)
7. El Gato Malo (8)
8. Denis of Cork (10)
9. Elysium Fields (new)
10. Court Vision (4)

This was an interesting weekend as we saw the emergence of two new legitimate Derby contenders and of course the #1 horse confirmed his position. I don’t think the performance by War Pass in allowance company really changed anything. Those who like him still like him and those looking for reasons to oppose him would not be overawed by his trashing of a few claimers. Since he has been the #1 ranked horse from the inception of this list it’ll be no surprise to find that I liked his race. For me it was not about the competition. This race was just about seeing whether or not he came through the winter well. Physically he looked excellent, perhaps bigger and more powerful than last year. There is some speculation about whether or not he would be able to handle stiff company up front and still finish the way he does but my observation is that this horse rates very well. I think he goes to the front simply because he is much faster than everyone else not because his fragile psyche cannot withstand being in second. Much like if I were to race a group of 10 year olds. No matter what my preferred running style would be against adults I would inevitably find myself in front from the off because I’d simply be so much faster than everyone else. This is the impression War Pass gives and there is no question that he is the benchmark for this crop. In order to win the Derby you’re going to have to beat him and as of right now not a single horse has demonstrated that level of ability. I will continue to keep an eye out though because I think the situation in 2001 was not all that dissimilar. Point Given looked like a monster and not many seemed to have the ability to match him. But Monarchos did flash his own high level of ability in the Florida Derby and he became the only horse I used against Point Given. Pyro is not yet that horse. War Pass is questionably bred in the opinion of some. My personal opinion is that if he is truly as good as he has looked it won’t matter. If he’s a man against boys he will be able to handle them no matter how far they go. Racing has been waiting for a real superstar for decades now and I’m not saying that War Pass is that horse just yet but what I will say is that this is what a truly superior horse should look like and the sky is the limit. Now onto other business because War Pass wasn’t the only news of the weekend. Crown Of Thorns has lamentably been injured and is off the trail. I had high hopes for him and it’s sad to see him go, hopefully he’ll still have a great career ahead of him. The Fountain Of Youth has ended up being quite a bizarre race because of the timing issues. Essentially no one really knows how accurate the timing is, your best bet is just to assume that it was an average race in terms of the final time and bank on the visual impression. Cool Coal Man made an excellent visual impression. He settled nicely on the fence and his quick move to the front was a thing of beauty. I am less enamored with the way he loafed in the straight but that really quick turn of foot is the weapon that caught my eye. That is what you need to successfully navigate the Derby field. You need to be able to move quickly when asked. Is he capable of beating War Pass? Definitely not at this stage but we unfortunately have to remember that War Pass is mortal as well and should something happen to him, God forbid, Cool Coal Man realistically looks as a decent a prospect as anyone. I prefer Cool Coal Man to many of the horses that have run already because of his good tactical speed and quick acceleration. Elysium Fields impressed me as well. He had a bunch of disadvantages including an outside post which saw him lose ground on the first turn and also he was coming in straight from a maiden victory. I loved the way he stuck at it through the lane. He was moving every bit as well as Court Vision, who had gone much slower early on. The unfortunate part with Elysium Fields is that he looks like a grinder. Perhaps not brilliant enough but then again many grinders have had a habit of turning up big when it counts. I’d love to see him get two more starts before the Derby but most likely he’ll just get one. I think he could really benefit from the experience of another few starts against stakes quality horses. Court Vision dropped well down the list off his third place finish in the Fountain Of Youth. I suppose he can be forgiven since it was his first start back but for me Court Vision had to prove two things. #1 - That he is actually faster than that terrible number he got in the Remsen and # 2 - That he could show a bit more speed and closer to the action once the real running starts. He basically flopped on both accounts. Perhaps Mott will sharpen him more for his next race but the reality is that he’s a slow plodder whose only real asset is the guts to keep on running until he hits the line. That will see him pass a lot of tired horses on Derby day but it won’t see him in the winners circle. He stays on the list because realistically he’s still one of the 120 best options out there. I severely doubt that anyone can come up with 10 horses who could legitimately beat War Pass so the list is always going to contain some non winners who just have the chance to hit the frame. Monba can be excused as a horse for his failure in the Fountain of Youth but he is not excused as a Derby contender. He came back beaten up with cuts and bruises and realistically that will put an end to his hopes. Even if he gets one more prep he won’t have had the kind of spring necessary for success. Kentucky Bear and Halo Najib were both dropped off the radar list because they either will never be good enough or are simply too far behind in their preparation to get there. Not many horses are capable of winning the Derby and the list gets smaller every week. Into Mischief is also in grave danger of being dropped. I did not want to rush to judgement because he has not officially been ruled out of the San Felipe yet but Mandella has said that he may not make the race because of a recurring foot problem. It’s a bad time of year to be injured and unless the good news emerges that he’s back on track he’ll be dropped next year. This coming weekend features the last unraced 3yo on my list, Colonel John, against the highly impressive El Gato Malo. I’m really hoping that one of the two of them shows that they can be real Derby contenders.

On the radar: Tale Of Ekati, Alaazo, Georgie Boy, Atoned, J Be K, Giant Moon, Cowboy Cal

Dropped: Crown Of Thorns (6), Monba (9), Kentucky Bear, Halo Najib

Weekend Overview: Is it a coincidence that on a weekend that featured a race called the Rare Treat handicap we saw two rather rare happenings? Cosmonaut won a race and the BC Juvenile winner won his first start back. BC Juvenile winners have a shockingly poor 3 for 12 record in their first races back and Cosmonaut is generally a money pit. Although almost always well backed he rarely gets in the winners circle. It is interesting also that so many of our Turf horses seem to be aimed at Dubai this year. San Luis Obispo winner Spring House looks set to join Better Talk Now and possibly Daytona at Nad al Sheba at the end of March. No American Turf horse has managed a victory in Dubai as yet.

Performance of the Week: War Pass looked phenomenal in his allowance comeback victory but I’m actually going to highlight a stakes winner from last week. I did not do a weekend review last week so I missed the chance to give credit where it was due. Ruff And Ready is the newest Turf sensation in the East and he remained undefeated on the sod with an electrifying victory in the Shotintheheart stakes at Gulfstream on Valentine’s Day. It was easily the best Turf performance by any horse year to date. Although it was just a listed stakes race it did include mostly graded stakes quality horses including Silver Tree. Ruff And Ready stalked the pace closely then blew the race wide open on the turn with a quick move. In the end he had 5 3/4 lengths to spare on Silver Tree in second and he earned a solid 104 BSF. Ruff And Ready could easily become one of the best milers in the nation.

Race of the Week: Despite the underperformance of most of the well-known horses in the Fountain of Youth I thought it was a superb race to watch. The duel between Cool Coal Man and Elysium Fields was quite intriguing. Cool Coal Man tracked in behind Elysium Fields until the far turn where he swung outside and seemed to put him away with a very flashy turn of foot. But Elysium Fields kept plugging along and was nearly rewarded when Cool Coal Man seemed to pull himself up. The finish was perhaps tighter than it had to be but it sure brought me out of my seat.

Flop of the Weekend: Monba and Shamdinan but ran horrible races as well backed choices in big stakes events. Monba will escape my ire this week because it seems as though he emerged from the Fountain of Youth a little beat up. Shamdinan on the other hand has no place to hide. He is simply an overrated horse who needs soft-ish ground to succeed. He is not nearly as good as his second place BC Turf finish suggests.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: We have a new overall leader. Spring At Last enjoyed 3 weeks atop the standings but Einstein has deposed him thanks to his victory in the G-1 GP Turf as well as his allowance victory earlier this year. That lead could be short lived though as we have the Big Cap coming up this weekend. the winner of that race will almost assuredly take the top spot. Einstein has also obviously moved to the head of the Turf Male division. Cool Coal Man is the new top Three Year Old Male. He’s 2 for 2 this year and if he manages to take the Florida Derby next time out he may stay atop the list until the Kentucky Derby.

Tip O’the Cap: Who is the first stakes winner to accumulate three wins in 2008? That honor goes to Runway Rosie who took the Rare Treat Handicap at Aqueduct with a gutsy stretch drive to deny Wild Hoots at the line. Runway Rosie’s star has fallen a bit since her 3rd place finish to Rags to Riches in the 2007 Las Virgenes but she’s found new life since switching to Gary Contessa’s barn and she’s taken 3 straight. This is not a Grade 1 mare by any means but she’s been a solid campaigner and for this week we tip our cap to her.

KC Handicapping: The results posted below include last weeks selections as well. I didn’t have a weekend roundup last week because of my vacation. A slight profit was gleaned in both the last two weekends thanks to Einstein and Dreaming of Anna. My wagers in the Triple Crown prep races did not work out as planned but I’m simply pleased to be making a little while not firing on all cylinders. Dreaming Of Anna continues to be a very tough horse to pass but I think her distance limit will be 9f or even less against top class horses. Einstein could be the best grass horse in the East but he has much to prove as he’s never contested any of the big summer and fall events.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 5(4)-2-0-0 (+$3.60 +36.00% ROI)
Overall record: 44(32)-11-6-6 (+$5.40 +6.14% ROI)

Gulfstream Park Turf Stakes
The morning line of this race has me a bit puzzled because if Einstein fails to go off as the favorite I think there is something really wrong with the bettors in Florida. Oddly enough Stream Of Gold and Shamdinan seem to be getting all the good vibes from the press. Stream Of Gold is a horse I’d oppose with both fists. He’s lost his last 12 races after going 3 for 5 at the start of his career. He has not won a race since April of 2005 and during that time he’s had 3 trainers, run at 9 tracks in 3 continents over 7 different distances. It would be accurate to say they’ve tried everything with him and still he’s winless. While he is capable of running at a high level I don’t like 3/1 on a loser like this. Shamdinan I think is worth opposing simply because he has never really been that good. He’s has all the sudden become heir apparent in the Turf division because he happened to clunk up for second behind English Channel in an absolute bog. No one did any running that day aside from the winner so I’m not putting much stock in that performance. Over firm ground Shamdinan has been very poor and although there is a slight chance of rain I think the turf will be firm tomorrow. Einstein by contrast has proven that he has the talent to be one of the best, even if he has been a tad inconsistent. We know he likes Gulfstream, we know he is more than capable of beating this group and he’s been sharp in the mornings following the failed experiment in the Donn. The only worry for me is if his speed can last. We know that Thorn Song has speed and Notable Guest could be a wildcard going for a new trainer. I don’t expect either of them to really take the bull by the horns but early speed is always a bit vulnerable in Turf races. With that in mind I also have to give a little shout out to Dave who is the best closer in the race. The distance is right up his alley and Tagg had him in the best form of his career at the tail end of last year. I don’t think he is better than Einstein but he is a definite must use in the exotics. Thorn Song is a favorite of mine but the distance is really a question mark for me and I have no idea what he was doing in his last start. I’ll keep my hands off for this race but hopefully he runs well and gets back into form.

Einstein

Fountain Of Youth Stakes
This could be a telling race for the Derby futures of many of the contestants. Certainly horses like Court Vision and Anak Nakal will get a free pass to the next stage even with a bad race but effectively they may not be real Derby contenders if they can’t run in the Top 3 in this race. Z Humor is definitely at a crossroads. He must prove that the Sam Davis was an aberration. What is most interesting to me about this race is the fact that the class of the race is comparatively slow while it’s many of the horses stepping up who seem to be faster on paper. Court Vision, Anak Nakal, Halo Najib and Z Humor all have plenty of stakes experience and yet none of them aside from Z Humor has really run a fast race. Court Vision is of particular interest because he’ll be the favorite. Despite his poor figures it’s hard to ignore him because of his winning attitute, he really wants it. However at 3/1 I think he’s likely not the best way to play this race. I think Anak Nakal and Halo Najib have to be opposed as well. The former has never impressed me, while the later has a bad post, is better on Polytrack and is just using this race as a “tightener” for the Lane’s End. Z Humor on the other hand is the best of the “class” horses to play. His back class is definitely good enough to beat this group and if washing out really was his only problem last time he could be very tough here because the one advantage he’ll have on the other class horses is the pace. There is virtually no pace in here and if Velasquez fails to send first time stretch out Make The Point the pace may end up being glacial. Z Humor will be able to closely stalk the pace from his post and he should get first run on the others. Because of the lack of pace I am naturally interested in any horse who might be setting that pace and I think it might be Golden Spikes. Golden Spikes is my play for this race because I think he has too many advantages to ignore. First off I love his connections, Marty Wolfson is a genius and he is very good with second time stretch outs, he is also 3 for his last 5 according to BRISnet. Golden Spikes was involved in a very hot pace last time but he was still able to move quickly and willingly to the lead. Bejarano in fact looked quite confident on him, he didn’t even begin urging until Cool Coal Man came right to him. Golden Spikes then struggled to regain momentum but he never gave up and went past his rival again in the gallop out. At the time when I saw the race I immediately thought that he’d beat Cool Coal Man if they faced each other next time. With a slower pace and possibly even getting loose on the lead Golden Spikes will be a very tough horse to pass. I think Cool Coal Man will try to lay in the pocket just like he did last time and I do consider him a danger as well but I think his rally won’t have the same effect it did last time out. I’ve gotten through all this analysis without even mentioning Monba once. Oddly enough I would have said prior to seeing this field that Court Vision and Monba are two best candidates to go on and be real Derby contenders. I’ve decided to oppose Court Vision because I think the price is not reflective of his actual chances. As for Monba I’m not really sure. I think he has the talent but I don’t like the way he dropped back in the Futurity. It is also worth noting that the form from that race has worked out as strongly as I figured it would. I may just use Monba underneath. So it’s Golden Spikes for the upset win with a hedge on the classy but overlooked Z Humor.

Golden Spikes
Z Humor

Much of the focus on the Triple Crown Trail is on whether or not a horse is being prepared for the Derby in “the right way”. Ask five people what that right way is and you might get five different answers. A quick scan over the preparations of the last few Derby winners shows us the reason why. Not many of them had identical preparation. Some of the Derby winners had widely varied spring campaigns.

One of the biggest faux pas that fans and trainers held fast to was the notion that no horse could win the Derby with less than 3 prep races. I wrote on the subject last year when it was revealed that Street Sense would only have two preps. What was true then is still true now, only now it has more solid statistical evidence behind it.

Having two prep races has never been the problem. Since 1996 there have been 34 Derby starters with two preps or less. The compiled a record of 34-1-4-1. On the face of it the data doesn’t look that good, but there was only an average of 2.8 starters per year with less than 3 preps and overall 6 of them ran in the money. 6 of the 12 runnings had a horse with only two preps finish in the frame. So it is certainly possible to do well in the Derby off of just two preps.

But here is an interesting side note or subsection of the stat. Of those 34 horses with 2 preps or less 17 of them had just one prep around two turns. Those 17 starters went 17-0-0-0 in the Derby. Not one of them even hit the superfecta in the Derby. That means the other half of the two prep horses, those who had both preps around two turns, went 17-1-4-1 in the Derby. A much better record and possibly even a positive indicator. A third of the horses with two preps around two turns hit the frame in the Derby and 30% of then hit the exacta.

To me that looks like valuable information. It may also be applied during this year’s running. With all the uncertainly over War Pass and his first start in allowance company it is possible that he may have to change plans. The original plan called for War Pass to have 3 preps. The first around one turn in allowance company and the next two in stakes races around two turns. If however he does not manage to find an allowance soon Zito will have a decision to make. Hopefully he chooses to give War Pass two preps around two turns because the record isn’t great for horses doing anything different.

Derby Top 10 - February 20th

1. War Pass (1)
2. Pyro (2)
3. Colonel John (3)
4. Court Vision (4)
5. Z Fortune (5)
6. Crown Of Thorns (6)
7. Into Mischief (7)
8. El Gato Malo (8)
9. Monba (9)
10. Denis of Cork (new)

The radar list continues to dwindle as more and more horses prove themselves to be less than Derby winning quality. I do not want to get too harsh on the quality of the horses seen in the Sam Davis but it will suffice to say that not one of them remains even on my radar. I do not think highly of any horse that ran in the race including the winner. Although Fierce Wind is undefeated around two turns I think he only won this race because the rest of his competition ran much worse than he did. The Delta Jackpot form looks pretty bad now with Cave’s Valley, Z Humor and Turf War all coming back very poorly. Wise Answer looks as though he is just another Calder flash. He had no response once the real running started. The horse to get excited about this weekend was Denis of Cork. His win the in Southwest was just the sort of progressive effort I like to see. This was not a breathtaking performance. He did not come home all that fast, it’s just that his competition was basically stopping. But there were some nice positives about it. First of all I like the way he settled closer to the pace early on. Until the leaders ran away at a ridiculous pace he looked set to have a nice stalking trip. It is good to see his connections trying to distance themselves from being a one run closer. I liked the way he assumed command with very little urging. He did not close very fast but he was well within himself. I also like that he received a solid 96 Beyer Speed Figure. It’s a good solid figure for this time of year but of course further improvement will be necessary. J Be K won as easily as he liked at the Fair Grounds but he does not really move up the radar for that performance. That race only restated what we already knew. He is a very fast horse. What we need to know about him is how far he’ll go. He stays on the radar until we get more direction but the feeling is that he’ll be a miler at most. Tale Of Ekati drops off the Top 10 list to the head of the radar list just because of his inactivity, unsatisfactory workouts and the performances of others. Cowboy Cal suffered a reverse on the grass but that race still suggests little about his Derby future. The Bluegrass is next for him and he will likely go into the Derby as a total wildcard, but a talented wildcard nonetheless.

On the radar: Tale Of Ekati (10), Alaazo, Elysium Fields, Georgie Boy, Kentucky Bear, Atoned, J Be K, Giant Moon, Halo Najib, Cowboy Cal

Dropped: Riley Tucker, Etched, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Golden Yank

Overview: Although there are not a ton of storied historical races there are actually a good deal of nice horses in action this weekend. The talented Day Pass reappears in a Gulfstream allowance for the first time since his debacle in Dubai. He has not been seen stateside since his romp in the Nashua Stakes. Lear’s Princess and Dreaming of Anna comeback in the same stakes race at Tampa Bay. The Female Sprint division also heats up a bit as Control System and Sugar Swirl are both in action at Laurel and Gulfstream. I won’t have selections in most of these races but I do think they will be fantastic contests. I will actually be away for this weekend, I won’t return to this space until Wednesday so I hope everyone enjoys the holiday and the racing!

Endeavour Stakes
This might be the race of the weekend in terms of quality from top to bottom. Dreaming of Anna did not have a banner year as a 3yo but it may be lost on some that her Turf form was still exemplary. She is 7-5-2-0 on the grass and is an absolute bear to get past. Beautiful Venue and Pretoria Light may hold the key to the race as they seem to be the only ones capable of keeping her honest. More than likely, though, Anna will have things her own way. It is still hard to discount Lear’s Princess, Meribel and Take The Ribbon. Lear’s Princess is a G-1 winner on the dirt and many held the opinion that she is actually better on the grass. If that’s true the rest of this field could be up against it. She is 2 for 2 on the grass and has been working extremely well for her return. I think she will represent poor value though because people will bet her reputation while in reality her Turf form has not been better than the rest of the field. I can’t take the favorite based on the expectation that she’ll show form better than what her competitors have already proven. I think the world of Meribel as a talent but she’s been a consistent under performer for a while now. I expect her to make a great late run as usual but it’s hard to see her winning. The most interesting alternative to Dreaming of Ann is Take The Ribbon. Although her form suggests that a flat mile is her best distance she has certainly faced the toughest competition in the grass perhaps only with the exception of Meribel. Nearly all her races contained Wait A While, Vacare, Precious Kitten or My Typhoon. She has decent tactical speed and has been working well for this race. The switch to Tagg is also an interesting one. Dollase is a more than competent trainer but perhaps Tagg can get a new dimension out of her. She will up against it to beat the 2006 juvenile champion but she is worth a gamble. Speed is not as deadly on the grass but Anna has class as well and I’ll make her my primary selection. I would be quite surprised to see her miss the frame.

Dreaming Of Anna
Take The Ribbon

Sam F. Davis Stakes
Like the Risen Star last weekend this looks like a field with a lot of intriguing prospects. Most likely a good number of them will cease to be prospects at all after this weekend. For all the horses that have failed to win a stakes race so far this represents their big chance. If they fail to hit the frame they’ll likely be off the Derby trail. Z Humor is getting most of the attention and it would be no surprise if he won but at the same time this horse is no shoe in. To me he seems a tad one paced and that might make him vulnerable depending on how the pace plays out. If a competitor suddenly changes the pace and moves away he could struggle to match them. I expect Gomez to keep him wide and in a good stalking position. Tampa can be a quirky track and Honey Honey Honey is one of only two horses with form over the surface. I fully expect at least one defeated horse to be excused by their connections because of the surface. Wise Answer is at a real crossroads right now. He was the best 2yo at Calder last year and the Calder form has held up very well. He ended his 2yo campaign in poor fashion but I think his trainer was more to blame than anyone. Cutting back to 7f after two races around two turns is not an easy feat, and then he was entered in a Turf race which he apparently didn’t appreciate. This will be the test of what his prospects truly are. He was a very fast 2yo and if he’s matured at all he could be a monster as a 3yo. I’m not a huge fan of the Zito horse Fierce Wind. I do like that he’s undefeated around two turns but he’s had things all his own way in both those starts. He has not been battle tested and I think the pace pressure here will see him fold. Smooth Air is an interesting horse on the stretch out. I’m inclined to oppose him, I think second or third is the best he can hope for. He just didn’t look like a horse that would easily handle two turns. I think this is between Wise Answer and Z Humor. Z Humor can be counted on to run a steady race, Wise Answer is the horse with the brilliance to beat him.

Wise Answer

There is no question that Pyro and his fantastic stretch run in the Risen Star generated the biggest buzz of the week. He passed every horse within the last 3/16th’s of a mile and some pace professionals are reporting that he covered the final quarter in :22.60. Closing fractions like that are virtually unprecedented in any dirt race let alone a Derby prep but for our statistical look this week I wanted to see how one run closers have done in the Derby.

The problem with statistics in this area is that it is notoriously difficult to define closers from stalkers who were maybe just a bit further back. Closers may also make their run from the back at very different points in the race. For instance Street Sense was nearly last early in the Derby but by the time they passed the mile pole he was 3rd and he was a length in front at the 1/8th pole. He certainly came from off the pace but his running line only lists him far back for two calls while he was either close or in front for 3 calls.

The biggest danger for late runners always seems to be that for any variety of reasons they run out of ground. Their challenge comes too late and the speedier horses that were tactically better placed get to the wire first. So in order to try and quantify late runners I am going to define them by their placement at the 1/8th pole.

The first interesting note is that in the last 12 years no horse has won the Derby after winning a two turn stakes prep race from well off the pace. By off the pace I mean that they were worse than second at the 1/8th pole. Horses who have won a prep after being third or more at the 1/8th pole are 0 for 28 and 28-0-2-3 overall. Horses like Fifty Stars, Crypto Star, Desert Hero, Greater Good and Tapit make up the bulk of the list. But there are also a good deal of classy talented horses like Captain Bodgit, Menifee, Imperialism and Tiago. Those horses managed to sweep past the competition in their prep races but all of them ran out of time in the Derby. Some missed narrowly like Captain Bodgit and Menifee while others like Imperialism never really threatened the winner despite closing stoutly. The Derby is simply a tough race to close in, you have to be in a good position turning for home and quicker stalkers are usually the ones in those positions.

An absolute essential in my mind is that a horses demonstrate the ability to put themselves in a good position. It won’t necessarily work out in every race for a closer but the most consistent closers will be the ones who have caught up to the leaders by the 1/8th pole. Horses who failed to be in the top 2 places in either of their last two Derby preps are 61-0-3-3 over the last 12 years. Horses who never seem to get there almost never do, even Giacomo qualified with this factor.

What all this means for Pyro I’m not sure. He came from further back than any horse I’ve seen in a prep and he also did it against a slow pace whereas most closers have success into a fast pace. However the stats suggest that one run closers are disadvantaged in the Derby and that it will be nearly impossible to repeat that trick in the big dance. Pyro has not always come from that far back though, and this statistic will surely be relevant for a few other horses in this years Derby.