Derby Top 10 - January 15th

1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (new)
10. El Gato Malo (new)

I won’t bore you with a reiteration of why I think War Pass is still the #1 Derby prospect in the nation. In general I’ll try to confine my weekly analysis to the current happenings. Riley Tucker and Monba have been temporarily relegated to the radar list following some nice performances from some undefeated horses. I have Z Fortune rated the better of the two for a variety of reasons. Not among them is the brilliance factor, Z Fortune is not a terribly brilliant horse but so far in his career he has never lost. In fact he has never really appeared in danger of losing. He has run on three different tracks, shown the ability to win on the pace or from off it and each time the final furlong has been fairly comfortable for him. Although he has been driven to the line he has never had to deal with pressure late on. His speed figures are quite decent for this stage in his career. He received a 95 for the LeComte, as long as he continues to improve his level of performance on the racetrack he will move up this list. I do not expect him to remain undefeated all the way to the Derby but if he can improve even without winning he will be a dangerous horse. He is bred to love the distance and physically he looks like he’ll love a route of ground. The horse that was directly behind him in the LeComte, Blackberry Road, is getting a decent amount of attention but not from me. He needs to start winning races to get included. The classiest loser of this crop is Pyro, I don’t need two horses who can’t win on the list. El Gato Malo was breathtaking in the San Rafael. He is a beautiful mover who in his short career has shown a few different facets and most of all, sheer brilliance. The pace of the San Rafael did setup for him but the way he quickly accelerated was the sign of a good horse. In his previous start he also showed willingness to get through tight gaps with ease. So he’s brave as well as quick. The world is seemingly at his feet and in terms of visual impression while in motion you’d be hard pressed to find any that match him. But I do have a few questions about him. He has the look of a miler. His quickness and breeding suggest that perhaps his best distance will be 9f and below. That isn’t written in stone though as there are thousands of examples of horses outstaying their pedigree. The best thing we can do is observe him over the coming months. But there is also one more factor that makes me nervous. He has never been on dirt and it’s highly possible that he may never try dirt until the Derby itself. That is far from an ideal situation, although he’s bred for dirt you never quite know how a horse will do on its first time out. Especially in a race like the Derby where kickback is nearly unavoidable. As is often the case, the horses we see with the greatest capacity for brilliance also have some real frailties.

On the radar: Riley Tucker (9), Monba (10), Salute The Sarge, Slew’s Tiznow, Wicked Style, Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Cowboy Cal

New Derby Dozen

1. Country Star–most have her #1 on their Oaks’ lists now, but I would probably put her only #3 there–so figure that out!

2. War Pass–distance question looms large.

3. Pyro–wiseguy sucker pick or one to watch going longer?

4. Z Fortune–undefeated in three starts, decent Beyers to buld on.

5. El Gato Malo–3 for 3, pedigree iffy for 10f but damsire helps a bit.

6. Turf War–flying under the radar.

7. Check It Twice–came to life in last race.

8. Kodiak Kowboy–should do OK up to 9f.

9. Colonel John–solid but not sensational so far.

10. Z Humor–has shown some versatility in running style.

11. Tale of Ekati–my hunch is he doesn’t want a distance.

12. Anak Nakal–showed improvement in last. 

Although Z Fortune and El Gato Malo didn’t score big Beyers, they moved up pretty far mainly because I’m not impressed with many on my list to tell you the truth.  Majestic Warrior falls off completely due to inactivity. 

Weekend Overview: Steve Asmussen continued his hot streak in Louisiana. He dominated the Fair Grounds stakes races again topped off with a win by Z Fortune in the LeComte. This Zayat Stables 3yo is still undefeated, it seemed to be the weekend for undefeated horses to continue their streaks. El Gato Malo, Indian Blessing, Zenyatta, Z Fortune and Euroears all stayed unbeaten. Perhaps the most impressive individual performance at the Fair Grounds this weekend was by Euroears. He won a 6f listed stakes race and earned a 106 Beyer for the effort. It was a breakout performance for the Bret Calhoun trainee who is now 4 for 4. Watch for him in up coming graded sprint stakes.

Performance of the Week: With all due respect to El Gato Malo this has to be about Zenyatta. She looks like a combination of Rags To Riches and Nashoba’s Key. A relentless racing machine with unquestioned talent and poise well beyond what her 3 career starts should entitle to her. She must learn to break, or maybe she doesn’t because despite spotting the field again she circled them with some measure of ease. Flores did have to get into her a bit on the turn and leading into the stretch but I think that’s more because her mind was not on the task, not because she was struggling. She’s quite large for a filly and once she hits top gear she’s relentless and Flores wrapped up on her again nearing the line. Just a hunch but I have to think that this filly will start scaring off lots of horses from the Santa Anita filly and mare stakes program.

Race of the Week: For pure excitement the nod has to go to the San Fernando where Air Commander nosed out Johnny Eves and paid $106.80. Tiago looked like he’d get involved for much of the stretch but I think he was too close to the pace. Johnny Eves ran his heart out and continues to overachieve while Air Commander has never looked so good. A few people may look at the result derisively because on paper Air Commander had no business doing as well as he did. But big longshots scoring always has an air of excitement about it and who can sit down during a photo finish like that one?

Flop of the Weekend: Molengao looked nothing like a horse on the cusp of something better. On the contrary he looked more like a horse who will never run again. He broke last, trailed the field, made a move on the outside when on the far turn but came up completely empty in the stretch. The horses he was chasing were not all that good. It would not shock me to see Molengao either sent to the farm or get a surface switch to wake him up.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The 2008 standings are still in their infancy. Air Commander has jumped into the top spot with his win in the San Fernando. The standings will not be updated on the sidebar until the TCR Awards winners have been named. We still need your votes so if you haven’t weighed in yet please do so here. This is the last week for voting.

Tip O’the Cap: Helen Pitts did a great job bringing Einstein back to full form. He was a nice horse last year and in the opinion of some he was one of the best, if not the best, Turf horse in the early part of the year. The fall on Preakness day derailed the campaign but he was back in earnest on Friday at Gulfstream where he beat a stakes quality field at a mile. He did not earn a massive speed figure for the effort (97) but this was always a tune up and the distance didn’t suit him that well.

KC Handicapping: A few of my selections went pear shaped this weekend but luckily our faith in the Canadian Turf program came through and we had a nice winner in French Beret. Sterwins ran a bit below form but was just nosed out for second. Gunfight and Molengao never ran a step in their respective races. It’s nice to put a little streak together and get into positive territory. Hopefully I remain there for a good while.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 4(3)-1-0-1 (+$16.60 +207.50% ROI)
Overall record: 19(14)-4-1-6 (+$11.00 +39.29% ROI)

LeComte

 #3 He’s Eze seems to be overlooked with morning line odds of 12-1.  I expect his actual odds to be lower, but may still offer a decent price.  He improved out of nowhere in his last race to beat Wiose Answer and Smooth Air, earning a 97 Beyer for the 7f.  We aren’t asking him to go 10f, he just has to hang on another furlong and make it one mile.

#8 Macho Again has fired back-to-back 86 Beyers going 7f and then one mile, finishing strong both times.  He seems to be coming into his own and looks like the likely favorite.

#6 Blackberry Road finally impressed me in his last start, looking like an actual closer rather than just a plodder.  His Beyers still aren’t great, but he’s heading in the right direction and this isn’t the most difficult spot.

#5 Z Fortune has won both starts easily, finishing strong but earning mixed reviews Beyers-wise with a 93 and then a 77.  He’s tested for class here and will have to go much faster than he did last time if he expects to wire again. 

#1 Texas Fever has never even run an 80 Beyer, but he hasn’t run since October and may have developed a bit since then.  He beat Blackberry Road pretty handily in the Kentucky Juvenile Cup.  He’s three now so don’t be surprised if he runs a lifetime top here.

#2 The Darp was very impressive breaking his maiden, but it did take him three tries.  This is a tall order but stranger things have happened and his Beyers are OK against this field.  #7 Mad Fatter has been a mold of consistinency with Beyers of 82, 82, and yes 82 in three starts, but he’ll need to improve off that to have a chance here.  #9 Star Defender has been pretty slow, but so was his sire Vindicatiion until BC day.  He has improved quite a bit in his last two starts. and has been working well.  A tall order for him as well, but this isn’t the toughest field ever assembled. 

The play:

$2 tri 3 with 1,5,6,8 with 1,5,6,8 ($24)

$2 tri 6,8 with 3 with 1,5,6,8 ($12)

$2 tri 6,8 with 6,8 with 1,3,5 ($12)

$2 tri 8-6-7

total: $50

San Rafael

#2 Talk of a Cat is my top pick with Pletcher at the helm.  He’s tested for class here and I’m rolling the dice he passes that test.  He’s fast but will have to go two turns for the first time.

#6 Massive Drama, #5 Indian Sun, and #3 Sierra Sunset finished pretty close together in the Cash Call and there isn’t much sperating them.  #1 El Gato Malo is the new shooter that could crash the party but he’ll face much better here than he did at Golden Gate Fields. 

#4 Overbid improved his position at every call in his debut maiden win, and that’s a very nice sign, but the move from maidens to Grade 3 is often a tough one.  #7 Spinning Sound has been medicore on grass, but he has run against some nice horses.  He actually broke his maiden on polytrack at Lingfield, so he just may like this surface.  Still, you have to wonder if he’s fast enough.

The play:

$20 ex 2 with 5,6

$10 ex 6-5

total: $50

F.W. Gaudin Memorial Stakes
A nice even field has lined up for this listed stakes at the Fair Grounds. I think there is a decent opportunity to make some money with the hottest trainer on the grounds. Steve Asmussen has been winning the stakes races at the Fair Grounds at an alarming rate and once again he has a very strong hand this Saturday. Specifically in the Gaudin he has the favorite Stormin Baghdad, a horse who we opposed in this space last time out and he also has Gunfight a newly minted older horse. Stormin Baghdad won the Bonapaw Stakes last time out after it came off the grass. He has now won his last three races on the main track and two of them at the Fair Grounds but I think he is worth opposing again. Not because he may run poorly but because I think Asmussen’s other horse, Gunfight, is much better. Gunfight actually smashed Stormin Baghdad when he broke his maiden. He was 5 lengths better on that day as the pair ran 1-2. Asmussen then tried to get him into the Triple Crown trail but he came out of a bad race in the Swale and was not seen again until November. I don’t have any official word of the reason for his absence but I think it’s safe to say he was injured during that time. He came back against older horses at Churchill and ran a game second to Vicarian. In his second race back he showed all the promise that was evident early in his career. He demolished his competition without being asked at any point. Bridgmohan had such confidence that he just hand rode him past the field. He got a nice figure for that race and Bridgmohan who rides first call for Asmussen at the Fair Grounds chose to ride Gunfight despite winning a stakes with Stormin Baghdad last time out. Clearly the stable is high on this horse and yet he’s 9/2 on the board. Semaphore Man, Euroears, Island Warrior and Sumfun make this a tough race to win even if Gunfight beats Stormin Baghdad but I think he can handle this field and possibly propel himself into some graded stakes.

Gunfight

Colonel E.R. Bradley Handicap
The morning line suggest that Sterwins at 7/2 may still present some value for his backers. I thought he might be something in the nature of 7/5 for this race. He will likely be bet down a bit from that 7/2 mark but I think 5/2 is still good value for him. Sterwins looks like a decent bet to improve of his win last out against basically the same crowd. He has never really run poorly on the grass and he is better on firm ground than soft. He has a better draw this time out and because of the lack of speed he might find himself controlling this race going into the far turn. A horse like Major Rhythm or Save Big Money will likely set the tempo but Sterwins should be in that garden spot looming large all the way around. I won’t use Silverfoot as an alternative because frankly I don’t like the fact that his last race came in 2006. This 8 year old has class and good form on the surface but I think he’ll need this one. French Beret is an interesting horse at an interesting price. He has not won a race in a very long time so it’s hard to have any real confidence in him but he is as good as Sterwins on his best day and since his connections have taken to running him from the back he has been finishing with interest. He was flying in a 7.5f allowance last time out and passed the winner just after the wire. A repeat of that effort will have Sterwins backers searching for the wire. At his likely price of 12/1 or more French Beret is an excellent choice for the exotics and maybe just for an upset.

Sterwins
French Beret

San Pasqual Handicap
Not a great deal of intrigue in this race but perhaps there is some money waiting to be picked up. I had this race last weekend and of course it washed off so much of this analysis is a reprint. I thought a great deal of Molengao last year. I thought he had the talent to go on and thrust himself into the top tier of the older division. But unfortunately he was body sore by June and has been off ever since. Lobo has a very good record of bringing horses off a layoff and Molengao in particular has often done very well first time back. He is the horse to beat but he might have his hands full with Racketeer who is second off the shelf and looking sure to improve. Well Armed may try to steal this one on the front end but I think that if Molengao is in form he can run down any of these with ease. Since both Molengao and Racketeer will be short prices I’ll just select Molengao and put most of my money on an exacta linking the two.

Molengao

The Kentucky Derby and the trail leading towards it is one of the most captivating aspects of this sport. Derby Fever as it’s called grips just about everyone involved in racing from the hardened old fan to the small time trainer with a promising three year old.

One of the ways my Derby fever manifests itself is through statistics. I love to do is to compile statistics and specifically I have spent a good deal of time compiling statistics for the Derby and Breeders Cup. Not all statistics are relevant, not all statistics are useful but I think there is some value to be derived from using good statistics to help shape your view of a race. I don’t think one should blindly rely on numbers but it can help you identify some false favorites or some intriguing longshots.

I have spent a great deal of time developing a statistical model for the Derby that combines what I believe to be 20 relevant factors. It’s called the 20-20 system and last year in this space we took an in depth look at prior to the Derby. Unfortunately for the model’s sake it had Scat Daddy as the primary selection. We all know how that turned out but it was a good reminder not to bank too heavily on just what the numbers say. Statistics can paint a lie and because of several unique factors last year (like the Bluegrass being run on Polytrack) it threw a few figures off.

Still I think the 20-20 is a system worth keeping, it still shows a flat bet profit of 25.9% and if you only took the perfect qualifiers you’d have made 382.17%. All that without doing any handicapping at all. Hopefully with a little good sense you could make it even better.

Every Wednesday from now until the Derby I’ll pick one interesting statistic to highlight. The stat may or may not be part of the 20-20 system. Sometimes the best advice you can get is knowing which statistics to stay away from, because there are a lot of crazy ones out there, especially with the Derby.
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Let me start of this years statistical look with saying that I’m glad the Juvenile Jinx has been put to rest. There has never been any validity to it just like years ago people thought it was bad luck to be the favorite. It was simply a case of the wrong kind of horses winning the Juvenile. Street Sense was the first juvenile winner in a long time who had a legitimate chance in the Derby.

As we all start to compile our Top 10 lists we will most likely be picking through a list of accomplished 2yo’s but there is always the temptation to toss in a name that perhaps no one else thought of. Often times those unknown underdogs failed to race as a 2yo. For whatever reason they got off to a late start but they appear to be very impressive so we keep close tabs on them.

Curlin was exactly that kind of horse last year. He burst onto the scene at Gulfstream as a 3yo and made a meteoric rise through the ranks. He ended up running a decent third in the Derby. So are unraced 2yo’s a good group to keep an eye on?

Statistically Curlin would appear to be an exception to the rule. I think looking at what he went on to accomplish confirms the notion that indeed he was not an ordinary horse. Since 1955 44 3yo’s have contested the Derby without having started at two and they achieved a Derby record of 44-0-1-2. Curlin, Strodes Creek and Agitate were the only exceptions. In recent times many of these horses looked quite promising like Pulpit, Greeley’s Galaxy, Trippi and Showing Up but all of them found the Derby too tough at that stage in their careers. This one is not a myth or jinx folks. It takes an exceptional horse to go through the conditions and overcome the lack of foundation. The Derby is a very tough race and horses need all the experience and foundation they can get.

Also when considering horses who ran as 2yo’s but failed to win be wary. The statistics do not suggest that it is impossible as Fusaichi Pegasus and Monarchos won the Derby without winning as 2yo’s. But the cumulative record of such horses is 30-2-1-1. Some big name horses like Medaglia D’Oro, Crypto Star, Ten Most Wanted, Flower Alley, Bandini and Balto Star all failed to live up to the hype on Derby day.

I posted my initial Derby Top 10 back in early December but now in the new year I’ll be updating the Top 10 every week until the Kentucky Derby itself. I have had the eventual Derby winner in my first January Top 10 for the past two years. Hopefully he (or she) is mentioned here for the third year in a row. The Top 10 will be listed on the sidebar as well. The number in brackets is the horses ranking from the previous Top 10 list.

Derby Top 10 - January 8th

1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (new)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (new)
9. Riley Tucker (10)
10. Monba (new)

War Pass remains my top Derby horse and will likely stay there unless I see something fantastic from another contender. He is undefeated and despite his penchant for early speed I think he’s live and dangerous for the Derby. Colonel John had his chance to impress and perhaps topple War Pass but he didn’t quite take that chance. He did not run poorly in the Hollywood Futurity but he didn’t shoot the lights out either and he is vulnerable in the #2 spot. Tale of Ekati, Pyro and Court Vision are also unchanged. None of them did anything of note recently but the class and talent they showed as 2yo’s makes them benchmarks for the division and they’ll likely remain highly ranked until they give me a reason to drop them. Into Mischief was pretty impressive when taking the Hollywood Futurity over Colonel John and Massive Drama. I love the fact that he’s got speed going two turns but he’s able to throttle back the speed a bit. This will see him get first run on most of his opponents on the Triple Crown trail. I also love the fact that he’s trained by Mandella. There are few trainers that I have more faith in. Although he is not typically known as a Derby trainer I think he can prepare and campaign a horse as well as anyone in the nation. Kodiak Kowboy is questionable to stay 10f but he hangs around and he’s got some class. I think he will be very tough all through the TC trail. Country Star made a huge splash with her win in the Hollywood Starlet. I was not quite sure how to rank her. Visually her Hollywood Starlet was better than Into Mischief’s Futurity but I’ve ranked her lower to compensate for the real chance that she may not contest the Derby. Frankel has said the Oaks is her target so even putting her on this list at all means banking on him changing his mind. Riley Tucker is an oddball pick but he showed a lot of ability as a 2yo. His connections did not have him all straightened out so we didn’t see his best before he got injured. He is back on the work tab now for Mott and I expect him to do quite well. Most people are tabbing Cowboy Cal as Pletcher’s best 3yo right now but I think it’s Monba, at least in terms of the main track. Cowboy Cal has been very impressive on the grass not actually as impressive as Barbaro was at that stage. He’s good as a turf horse but he isn’t exactly the best Turf juvenile we’ve seen in a decade. I prefer Monba who made a big late run in the Futurity and galloped out very strongly as well. Obviously he’ll need to start getting into the race sooner but he’s still green and I think he’s got a decent future.

Dropped: Cave’s Valley (6) - His performance in the Delta Jackpot was not horrendous and I would be open to including him in the Top 10 again if he rebounds well in his next race but I suspect that he will not be pointed to the Derby. Most likely he’ll have a nice career contesting listed stakes at Laurel and Delaware.
Majestic Warrior (8) - Still no workouts, I can’t keep him on the Top 10 when he’s still injured. Derby winners pretty much have to be working out at this stage.
Wise Answer (9) - Got a great form reference from Smooth Air but ran flatly in a turf race. I don’t hold the Turf race against him that much so I left him on the radar. But my main question is, why was he in the Turf race to being with? It may signal that his connections don’t really think he is good enough to leave Calder and win, or that they simply don’t know how to campaign a Derby horse. In any event he’s got to run well on the main track to get back in my good graces.

On the radar: Salute The Sarge, Slew’s Tiznow, Wicked Style, Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer (9), Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal

Weekend Overview: Frank Stronach may have attracted the ire of faithful racing fans for his renovation of Gulfstream Park’s grandstand but I think few would complain with the quality of racing seen at his track. Especially over this weekend. We were treated to 5 quality stakes races and although it was the only action of note this weekend it was certainly worth tuning in for.

Performance of the Week: It really is a shame that Chatain was not around for the BC Dirt Mile because this horse excels at the distance. He won the Hal’s Hope again in fine style. He settled nicely in the early going and made a move on the turn. After seeing him move up to the leaders I wondered how much he’d have left for the stretch drive but he moved by them so easily I barely had time to process the thought. Chatain is probably as good as anyone in a one turn mile. I would love to see him take on the Met Mile this year.

Race of the Week: Lady Marlboro’s duel with Golden Velvet almost earned her Performance of the Week as well as a highlight in this space. The Sabin Handicap was a thrilling contest to say the least. Lady Marlboro and Mini Sermon contested the pace from the outset and Golden Velvet sat very nicely in behind much like Noonmark did in the Mr Prospector. Around the far turn Mini Sermon seemed to put Lady Marlboro away and Golden Velvet swung out and began to menace. As Golden Velvet was grinding down the favorite on the outside Lady Marlboro got her second wind and came through a very tight gap on the rail. The tightness of the gap seemed to slow her run a bit and she just got even with Golden Velvet in the last jump. A dead heat was the official result but it seemed a little cruel to Lady Marlboro who overcame quite a bit.

Flop of the Weekend: No question that the biggest disappointment of the weekend was Santa Anita’s inability to card a single race. I am not intimately involved in the process so I will not cast blame on a certain person or group but collectively all parties involved in this debacle get a big thumbs down.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The 2008 standings are still in their infancy since so few Graded races have been run. The 2008 standings will not be posted on the main page of this blog until after the Sunshine Millions. For the month of January we will continue to focus on the TCR Awards. We still need your votes so follow the link and cast your ballot!

Tip O’the Cap: I think Tom Albertrani deserves a special mention for his work with Host. The 8 year old is far from a frequent winner and he seemed to go stale under the care of Pletcher. But Albertrani has him back to his best and quietly has one of the best winning percentages in Graded Stakes of any trainer over the last few years. He’s won a cool 27% which approaches super trainer status but obviously aside from Bernardini he’s had a lot fewer stars than guys like Pletcher, Asmussen and Baffert.

KC Handicapping: Santa Anita obviously did not run any races so the wager on Molengao is refunded. We’ll keep an eye out for when that field is reassembled. Thorn Song looked pretty bad in the Canadian Turf. We will take a hands off approach until an excuse is found or until he shows some life. He sat well off a fast pace but had no kick when the running began. The Mr Prospector ended up finishing exactly as I predicted in option 2. Keyed Entry is not back for real and he faded badly. Noonmark was perfectly placed and won with a touch of ease I’d say. That was more due to the tactics than actual dominance but his result turns us a nice profit for the week. After shooting blanks for the first few weeks we’re finally starting to gain some momentum.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 3(2)-1-0-0 (+$6.60 +110.00% ROI)
Overall record: 15(11)-3-1-5 (-$5.60 -18.66% ROI)

5-Barrier Reef–an improving horse at this time of year is very dangerous in these type races, so this is one to watch.  Showed some promise in 7f debut, moving from 9th early to finish 3rd, beaten just over a length; Beyer a sluggish 68.  Chart line says “steadied, altered course.”  Last out came from 10th/9th early to win going away by a length and a half after still being 5 lengths back at the last call.  Chart line says “Wide run, very greenly.”  Beyer of 79 better than it looked considering the route taken.  If he can learn to run in a straight line, he just might win this.

6-Roman Emperor–improving as you would expect an Empire Maker to be at this conjecture, with Beyers of 65, 76, and 81.  Last two were easy victories with him pulling away at the finish.  Fired another bullet recently, even faster than the one he fired before his allowance win.  Looks primed to run a big one.  The one to beat. 

7-Giant Moon–undefeated in three starts, this front-runner has earned 83, 82, 84 Beyers is three starts, consistent.   Major player.  Only possible criticism is that perhaps he isn’t improving that much from race to race.  Another 82-84 could definitely win against this field, but you would think someone would step up and run better than that.

2-Spanky Fischbein–a gem of consistency, has run 1st or 2nd in all six lifetime starts, and has run against a surprising number of good horses, including Lantana Mob, Law Enforcement, Big Truck, and Giant Moon.  Certainly a candidate for 2nd and 3rd at the very least. 

I’ll go with the two that seem to be improving right now on top:

$5 ex 5,6 with 2,5,6,7 ($30)

$2 tri 5,6 with 5,6,7 with 2,5,6,7 (2×2x2=8x$2=$16)

$2 tri 7 with 5,6 with 5,6 ($4)

Let the Derby madness begin!  They were just two-year-olds last week, but now they are three and that means Derby.  The Hutcheson at Gulfstream kicks off the 3-year-olds Derby prep season, although the distance of 7 furlongs isn’t exactly an acid test of stamina.  Truth is, many entered because they didn’t do so well going a mile or further, so the winner here is likely not to be a Derby horse.  Still, it could be a prep for a more serious Derby test down the road like the Florida Derby.

1-Tiz It–not bad for a maiden, beaten 3/4 of a length by Massive Drama in debut, 87 and 90 Beyer in two efforts at 6f.

2-Grand Minstrel-91 Beyer at 6f last out to win a small stakes by five lengths, final split wasn’t the best, but certainly bred to run 7f.

3-Cool Coal Man-showed nice improving Beyers in his first four starts up to a 90 going a mile and sixteenth at CD, but then crashed and burned at the same distance, same track, three weeks later in the Ky JC.  He was a bit rank early so perhaps if he settles he can rebound cutting back to 7f.  But he failed the class test any way you look at it. 

4-Halo Najib–ran 5th in the same race, but beaten only 2 &3/4 lengths, and led at the distance of this race.  Was only beaten half a length by Court Vision the race before, who many fancy as a Derby horse.  Looks solid, consistent.

5-Smooth Air–91 and 92 Beyer last two going this distance, but faces tougher here.  Another that adds to what looks like a battle on the front end.

6-Silver Edition–92,79,94,76 Beyers; toss a coin to which one shows up this time.

7-Big Truck–dull effort in Remsen going longer, should enjoy shorter distance, but probably not quite fast enough even though back at best distance.

8-Notgivmyloveaway–notfastenough.

9-Golden Spikes–sprang to life with 88 Beyer last out going just shorter, and was pulling away at the end.  Big class test but could surprise at a price.

10-Coal Play–run down late by Check It Twice last time, going a mile and a sixteenth, and should relish the cutback to the 7f distance.  Yet another that will want to run on the lead.

Lots of speed should in theory set it up for a stalker or closer.    The ones that fit that profile are Golden Spikes and Silver Edition, both longshots who might not be good enough even with a speed duel in front of them.  Halo Najib showed speed last out and ended up 2nd going longer, but ran well coming from behind in his first two starts, both closer to this distance.  He might stalk and benefit from that.  Big Truck also may sit just off the pace and find himself with a dream set up.  Also, not all of the speed can end up on the lead, and perhaps the horse that gets shuffled back to 4th or 5th early may actually be getting a present in disguise.  Tiz It, Grand Minstrel, Cool Coal Man, Smooth Air, Coal Play can’t all be on the early lead, so perhaps the least quick of them the first quarter will actually benefit the most.  Of those, Cool Coal Man and Coal Play seem the most likely to relax and settle behind the speed of the speed.  Also, keep in mind it’s only a 7f race, and speed often holds up going that distance. 

Tough race to figure, very wide open and the type of a race you might alter your bets after seeing the toteboard.

$2 ex box 4,5,9,10 ($24)

$2 ex 1,6 with 4,5,9,10 ($16)

$1 tri 4,10 with 4,10 with 1,3,5,7,9 ($10)

Bet: $50