LeComte
#3 He’s Eze seems to be overlooked with morning line odds of 12-1. I expect his actual odds to be lower, but may still offer a decent price. He improved out of nowhere in his last race to beat Wiose Answer and Smooth Air, earning a 97 Beyer for the 7f. We aren’t asking him to go 10f, he just has to hang on another furlong and make it one mile.
#8 Macho Again has fired back-to-back 86 Beyers going 7f and then one mile, finishing strong both times. He seems to be coming into his own and looks like the likely favorite.
#6 Blackberry Road finally impressed me in his last start, looking like an actual closer rather than just a plodder. His Beyers still aren’t great, but he’s heading in the right direction and this isn’t the most difficult spot.
#5 Z Fortune has won both starts easily, finishing strong but earning mixed reviews Beyers-wise with a 93 and then a 77. He’s tested for class here and will have to go much faster than he did last time if he expects to wire again.
#1 Texas Fever has never even run an 80 Beyer, but he hasn’t run since October and may have developed a bit since then. He beat Blackberry Road pretty handily in the Kentucky Juvenile Cup. He’s three now so don’t be surprised if he runs a lifetime top here.
#2 The Darp was very impressive breaking his maiden, but it did take him three tries. This is a tall order but stranger things have happened and his Beyers are OK against this field. #7 Mad Fatter has been a mold of consistinency with Beyers of 82, 82, and yes 82 in three starts, but he’ll need to improve off that to have a chance here. #9 Star Defender has been pretty slow, but so was his sire Vindicatiion until BC day. He has improved quite a bit in his last two starts. and has been working well. A tall order for him as well, but this isn’t the toughest field ever assembled.
The play:
$2 tri 3 with 1,5,6,8 with 1,5,6,8 ($24)
$2 tri 6,8 with 3 with 1,5,6,8 ($12)
$2 tri 6,8 with 6,8 with 1,3,5 ($12)
$2 tri 8-6-7
total: $50
San Rafael
#2 Talk of a Cat is my top pick with Pletcher at the helm. He’s tested for class here and I’m rolling the dice he passes that test. He’s fast but will have to go two turns for the first time.
#6 Massive Drama, #5 Indian Sun, and #3 Sierra Sunset finished pretty close together in the Cash Call and there isn’t much sperating them. #1 El Gato Malo is the new shooter that could crash the party but he’ll face much better here than he did at Golden Gate Fields.
#4 Overbid improved his position at every call in his debut maiden win, and that’s a very nice sign, but the move from maidens to Grade 3 is often a tough one. #7 Spinning Sound has been medicore on grass, but he has run against some nice horses. He actually broke his maiden on polytrack at Lingfield, so he just may like this surface. Still, you have to wonder if he’s fast enough.
The play:
$20 ex 2 with 5,6
$10 ex 6-5
total: $50
January 13th, 2008 at 7:46 am
In the San Rafael, El Gato Malo not only crashed the party, he destroyed this field. Not surprising since he had already won at 1 mile in the Golden Gate, the difference being is that he beat this field far easier, and was hand ridden to the wire while running the fastest mile in the history of SA (dirt or cushion).
In retrospect, isn’t it easy to see how it was Talk of a Cat who was stepping way up? Pletcher or no Pletcher. Poor Massive Drama, he held on to get 3rd and showed heart, but El Gato Malo was a man among boys in this race. Sure the track was running fast but the speed was holding in the other races-not here!
January 13th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Speed didn’t really hold in all the races. The 2nd, 4th and 5th (this race) all saw closers winning. And “just off the speed” has been holding better than front-running. Other than Indian Blessing today, wire jobs aren’t really the norm.