Let the Derby madness begin! They were just two-year-olds last week, but now they are three and that means Derby. The Hutcheson at Gulfstream kicks off the 3-year-olds Derby prep season, although the distance of 7 furlongs isn’t exactly an acid test of stamina. Truth is, many entered because they didn’t do so well going a mile or further, so the winner here is likely not to be a Derby horse. Still, it could be a prep for a more serious Derby test down the road like the Florida Derby.
1-Tiz It–not bad for a maiden, beaten 3/4 of a length by Massive Drama in debut, 87 and 90 Beyer in two efforts at 6f.
2-Grand Minstrel-91 Beyer at 6f last out to win a small stakes by five lengths, final split wasn’t the best, but certainly bred to run 7f.
3-Cool Coal Man-showed nice improving Beyers in his first four starts up to a 90 going a mile and sixteenth at CD, but then crashed and burned at the same distance, same track, three weeks later in the Ky JC. He was a bit rank early so perhaps if he settles he can rebound cutting back to 7f. But he failed the class test any way you look at it.
4-Halo Najib–ran 5th in the same race, but beaten only 2 &3/4 lengths, and led at the distance of this race. Was only beaten half a length by Court Vision the race before, who many fancy as a Derby horse. Looks solid, consistent.
5-Smooth Air–91 and 92 Beyer last two going this distance, but faces tougher here. Another that adds to what looks like a battle on the front end.
6-Silver Edition–92,79,94,76 Beyers; toss a coin to which one shows up this time.
7-Big Truck–dull effort in Remsen going longer, should enjoy shorter distance, but probably not quite fast enough even though back at best distance.
8-Notgivmyloveaway–notfastenough.
9-Golden Spikes–sprang to life with 88 Beyer last out going just shorter, and was pulling away at the end. Big class test but could surprise at a price.
10-Coal Play–run down late by Check It Twice last time, going a mile and a sixteenth, and should relish the cutback to the 7f distance. Yet another that will want to run on the lead.
Lots of speed should in theory set it up for a stalker or closer. The ones that fit that profile are Golden Spikes and Silver Edition, both longshots who might not be good enough even with a speed duel in front of them. Halo Najib showed speed last out and ended up 2nd going longer, but ran well coming from behind in his first two starts, both closer to this distance. He might stalk and benefit from that. Big Truck also may sit just off the pace and find himself with a dream set up. Also, not all of the speed can end up on the lead, and perhaps the horse that gets shuffled back to 4th or 5th early may actually be getting a present in disguise. Tiz It, Grand Minstrel, Cool Coal Man, Smooth Air, Coal Play can’t all be on the early lead, so perhaps the least quick of them the first quarter will actually benefit the most. Of those, Cool Coal Man and Coal Play seem the most likely to relax and settle behind the speed of the speed. Also, keep in mind it’s only a 7f race, and speed often holds up going that distance.
Tough race to figure, very wide open and the type of a race you might alter your bets after seeing the toteboard.
$2 ex box 4,5,9,10 ($24)
$2 ex 1,6 with 4,5,9,10 ($16)
$1 tri 4,10 with 4,10 with 1,3,5,7,9 ($10)
Bet: $50
January 5th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
Another near miss, had the 6-5 but it came in 5-6…Smooth Air wins it over Silver Edition.