Virtually every year we see precocious 2yo’s who step up and run massive figures and two camps automatically form. The one camp assumes they’ve seen the second coming while the other takes a contrary position and starts predicting the date of their regression.

It may be useful to take a peek at how these big figure juveniles fare in the Derby. It has to be noted that generally a small number of those big figure juveniles actually make it to the Derby but for the ones that do the results may be interesting. One may assume that horse with such figures would automatically be well regarded but that is not always the case. There are occasionally prices to be had.

The cumulative record of Derby starters who recorded a 100+ Beyer Speed Figure as a juvenile is 27-5-2-2 with a further 6 qualifiers finishing in the top 5. A flat $2 win bet on all of them you have yielded a gross return of $82.60 so you’d have made $28.60 profit (52.96% ROI)

It certainly looks like a useful stat on the face of it. The numbers actually get stronger if you just look at the last 5 years. During that time Derby starters who achieved the 100+ BSF have gone 13-4-1-2. There is a consensus that 2yo’s are being brought along slower than they once were. In terms of the number starts that would certainly be true but it would seem as though 2yo’s are still very much being asked for speed early on. More speed with less races may not actually be as easy physically on the 2yo’s as we think the trainers are being.

The numbers seem to suggest that many horses who are fast early on are still fast in may. Assuming of course they last long enough to make it into the Derby starting gate. I think there is little credence to the notion that juveniles who run big early on cannot continue to improve.

This statistic, and especially it’s recent success, certainly says good things about the chances of War Pass and Pyro. I’m not aware of too many other Derby contenders this year who achieved a 100+ BSF as a 2yo. At this stage it may be pointing out the obvious but on the Derby Trail things change so quickly that if a horse even has one sub par performance they drop down the pecking order considerably. It is possible that War Pass or Pyro could become forgotten horses, this little stat may help to keep them fresh in your mind.

No change in my Derby Dozen, so I’ll update that when there’s been a change, but a few horses popped up on the radar.

Making the biggest impression was once again a filly, this time the Unbridled’s Song filly, Eight Belles.  Running an allowance at the Fair Grounds, she rated in 3rd early and then swept into the lead after 6 furlongs and rolled to an eye-popping, Landaluce-like 15-length win for the mile and forty yards.  Her 100 Beyer is the highest for any three-year-old so far going two turns.  This kind of win would land her on many Derby lists at this time of year if she were a he.  Regardless, she is one to watch.  What is interesting is that she does not seem precocious, this big effort came in her fifth lifetime start.  We’ll see if she can duplicate that against tougher, but the number suggests she could win a Grade 1 in her next start. 

Cool Coal Man earned a decent 92 Beyer in his win at Gulfstream.  He has never really impressed me that much, but this was a small step forward.   Bob Black Jack received a 109 Beyer for his win at Santa Anita, but he is a sprinter.  While perhaps not a Derby horse, that is still a very nice number for a three-year-old this time of year, even at 6f. 

Derby Top 10 - January 29th

1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (9)
10. El Gato Malo (10)

Once again it was a slow week for Derby contenders and nothing changed either in the top 10 or on the radar. Cool Coal Man won what could be considered a key allowance race at Gulfstream. Many of the horses entered were harboring Triple Crown aspirations and the top pair, Cool Coal Man and Golden Spikes will likely be put into stakes company but it was not a very impressive race. I don’t think that either horse has the stuff to compete at the highest level. The Beyer Speed Figure that Cool Coal Man got was a decent 92 but something about his action did not impress me. I don’t think he can get anywhere near the horses in my top 10. One horse who has been shunned completely and has not even received a mention is Anak Nakal. Cool Coal Man gave him a good form reference with this allowance win but in general the form from the Jockey Club Stakes has not been strong. Blackberry Road came back to run decent but he was easily handled by Z Fortune. Anak Nakal has been horrendously slow in all of his races, he’s been fortunate that aside from Etched all the horses he’s faced have been slower. But I think the schooling Etched gave him in the Nashua is indicative of what will happen to him when he faces the best. I don’t even consider Etched to be one of the best. I suppose it also has to be said that I’m not the biggest fan of Nick Zito’s handling of Triple Crown prospects. I think he is a good trainer who won’t necessarily screw up a good horse but what he will do is consistently put an average horse in way above his head. Or he’ll take a very talented horse and try to make them into something they’re not. Zito is not the kind of trainer who will accept that one of his horses, who had previously shown any form, is not good enough to run in the Derby. I don’t trust trainers with that mentality so I will consistently oppose their charges that seem too slow. It’s kind of ironic that I’ve had a Zito horse as my #1 since I started the ranking but War Pass has scary talent and it’s much more difficult to mismanage, and detrimentally effect, a horse who is streets better than his competition.

On the radar: Monba, Signature Move, Elysium Fields, Visionaire, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Jockey Ridge Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank

Weekend Overview: The Sunshine Millions thankfully went off without a hitch despite the threats of cancellation at Santa Anita. It was a fairly formful set of races with many good horses confirming their class. I often think of the Sunshine Millions as the kick off to the year. This is where it all begins and starting next week we’ll have some G-1’s to observe including the Donn Handicap where blog favorite Daaher will kick off his campaign.

Performance of the Week: Not only did the Sunshine Millions Sprint yield the second highest Beyer Speed Figure of the year (115) but Benny The Bull showed a new dimension that just might make him the best sprinter of 2008. One run closers generally have problems winning consistently but Benny decided to take the bull by the horns all on his own this time. He stalked the pace from close up and moved very quickly when asked showing that he is still able to accelerate when attending a fast pace. He left Mach Ride for dead in a flash and won with ridiculous ease. He is a 6f specialist and may be very tough to beat this year, even for Fabulous Strike.

Race of the Week: There was a definite lack of heart pounding finishes this week so it became a toss up between the gutsy Quite A Bride holding out over Nashoba’s Key and Buffalo Man beating Elusive Fort and the late running Host. I decided to give the laurels to the Canadian, Buffalo Man for his first stakes win of any note. For those who had high hopes for him in the Triple Crown this must provide at least some measure of solace. He looks as though he could do even better still. He tracked a moderate pace in this race without the benefit of any cover. Visually he did not display the same quickness that we’ve seen from him in the past but he had enough to get by the pacesetter and hold off Elusive Fort.

Flop of the Weekend: In general it was a formful week but one favorite who absolutely stunk was Blitzing. Bettors had every reason to back her into favoritism in the Sunshine Millions Oaks but the Asmussen trainee never lifted a hoof while the race was won by a horse she had previously beaten by 2 1/2 lengths.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: The Thoroughbred Championship Rankings kick off 2008 with a few changes. The handicap bonus has been eliminated because it no longer rewards what it was meant to reward. It does not give great horses an added bonus for carrying high weights. It primary rewarded average horses for stepping down in class and facing poor horses. The undefeated bonus has also been slightly altered as was previously mentioned. Another change we’ve made is to rename and realign some of the divisions so they make sense. Gone is the ambiguous “Older Horse” division, it has been renamed the “Main Track Older Male” division. Similar renaming and clarification was done for most of the divisions. Also all the back data for the TCR was recalculated using the new parameters and fixing old errors giving us the most accurate version of the TCR yet. We remain committed to giving you the highest quality and most accurate ranking system we can. As we check into this years standings we see the dual stakes winner In Summation at the head of the list. Quite A Bride and Go Between are the only Sunshine Millions winners to crack the top 10 because those races are restricted. The Three Year Old Male division has also not really gotten off the ground yet with Smooth Air, the lone G-2 winner in the division, taking top spot.

Tip O’the Cap: Of all the super trainers or at least high profile trainers I think it’s safe to say that Bill Mott has one of the best reputations. You never hear a negative word about the guy and from all accounts he’s a class act from start to finish. He sure can train too. Mott took 3 of the 8 Sunshine Millions races with Go Between, War Monger and Quite A Bride. Mott brought himself back into the limelight last year at Saratoga and his hot run looks set to continue this year with that trio as well as 5 Derby contenders. Congrats to Bill Mott and here’s hoping his stable continues it’s good run.

KC Handicapping: 4 of the last 6 races handicapped have yielded winners. Most of them paid virtually nothing but we still managed to scrape out a profit. The race that worked out the best was most definitely the Appleton Handicap where our top picks ran 1-2 keying a $76.30 exacta.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 10(6)-4-1-0 (+$1.20 +6.00% ROI)
Overall record: 29(20)-8-2-6 (+$12.20 +21.03% ROI)

I had intended to follow up Part 1 and post my complete analysis of the rest of the Sunshine Millions card. However since the rest of the races are all set to be run at Santa Anita I’ve decided not to feature them here. There is a ton of uncertainty surrounding those races. There is a huge chance that they won’t be run and even if they are it might be at a different track. That would change the complexion of the races dramatically so it’s best to stay away from those races and just hope they figure out a safe solution. In the meantime there is still a decent race or two out there to handicap.

Appleton Handicap
This is a nice wide open contest, Host is really the only horse in the race with established class. The rest are still trying to make the breakthrough to better company. I personally don’t like Host in here. I know I went against him last time and he won but the pace was ridiculous that day. There is far less speed in this race and it’s hard to see this old closer getting the dream setup twice in a row. Jet Propulsion may get things his own way this time as Fearless Eagle looks like the only one with even tracking speed. That makes Jet Propulsion a real danger to steal this race. I am hoping someone gets a little rank and keeps him honest because even with his speed I think he’s a pretty bad selection. Generally he folds against this type. I am interested by Elusive Fort. I backed him in his North American debut and he ran a decent race behind Einstien. Oddly enough that allowance was likely tougher than this Grade 3. Elusive Fort only seemed to get interested late but it was his first start for 7 months. Two things scare me about him. #1 he is coming back very quickly after a long layoff, I generally like to see most time between the first and second starts and #2 Marty Wolfson is ice cold at 0 for 14. If you can look beyond those two factors Elusive Fort is a decent play. I’m sure he has the talent to win and it’s possible that he’ll make a jump forward off that race. The horse I will likely key on though is Buffalo Man. At one time he was a Triple Crown candidate and he excited fans with his nice turn of foot. Injury ended that dream and he is still basically trying to work his way back up to the level he was at. He’s a very consistent horse. Aside from two debacles in New York he’s been quite solid. He ran on Turf for the first time in his last race and he seemed to take to it very well. For a moment it looked as if he’d win the race but he bolted under left handed urging. When Prado went back to the right hand he straightened out and just missed by half a length. Prado stays on this time and hopefully he can keep him in a line in the stretch. Buffalo Man has been working well and has always given the impression that he’d be a good miler. He’s got the quickness for it and he handles the grass quite well. I like Buffalo Man with an outside shot to Elusive Fort.

Buffalo Man
Elusive Fort

Sunshine Millions Sprint
The opening race of what looks like a great renewal of the Sunshine Millions. Possibly the deepest ever over the eight races even though the Classic does not look all that tough. One has to think that if Benny The Bull is ready to run this race should be meat and drink to him. I know you have the classy Mach Ride and the speedy Bushwacker who recently beat the hot In Summation but there seems to be a lot of speed so the pace should setup and Benny The Bull has been working very well. He’s a 6f specialist and his connections have to be thinking of this as the first step to a campaign of mostly G-1 races. I’m not sure if many others in this field, aside from Mach Ride could realistically harbor those expectations. But this is racing and anything can happen, especially in a sprint. I do think the pace will be fast with Bushwacker and Finallymadeit in front. Those two will likely go very fast because they can and will likely need to in order to stay ahead of Mach Ride who will be right on their heels. When they turn for home I do think Mach Ride has the lead and maybe even opens up a bit. Tropic Storm will be trying to make some headway but it really becomes a question of how fast did they go early and does Benny The Bull get a clean trip? If you want a real bomb how about Storm in May. He won a Sunshine Millions race last year under much the same conditions over Idiot Proof at 26/1. He could be double that in here and the race again sets up for a closer. Now there was no Benny the Bull in that one and Storm In May himself seemed to be in better form last year but he coming off a Turf race and that angle has served him very well in his career. He is 3-1-1-1 when going turf to dirt and twice he was over 20/1. A definite must use underneath and maybe worth a few bucks on his nose.

Benny The Bull
Storm In May

Sunshine Millions Oaks
The Oaks has attracted two high quality fillies and I think the race will be decided between them. Blitzing has been dominant ever since she came back from a break. Things didn’t go right for her in the Spinaway but they’ve certainly gone right recently. She slammed American County (who came back as a winner and is in the field today) then returned and beat Syriana’s Song by over 7 lengths during Asmussen’s dominant run at the Fair Grounds. The one concern with her is that she has run 5 times now and has faced the toughest competition but she has not really improved to a level that is significantly above the others. It is hard to see her out of the top two but there is always the chance that someone could improve and beat her. Sindy Jacobson looks like a good candidate for the mild upset. She will likely be the second choice and she is the one that the Asmussen barn would likely fear the most. She has never been on dirt but she’s by More Than Ready so it’s hard to see her struggling on it. In fact she may improve on it. She won her first two races without much fuss then got served by California’s best filly sprinter Spring Awakening to whom she was giving quite an edge in experience. I think she’ll come on quite a bit for that run and the cutback in distance should help as well. California is renown for it’s speed and very often the reputation is well deserved. It is not at all unusual for a Cali speedster to come east and give the locals a lesson in early pace. Blitzing is still scary but I think I’ll lean slightly for Sindy Jacobson. Also don’t count out Yogi’ssplashofgold to hit the frame. She showed some nice form as a 2yo and could be cycling back up to her peak.

Sindy Jacobson

Sunshine Millions Distaff
The Sunshine Millions usually always features at least one crazy result with a boxcar payoff. Distaff winners returning to the track for the first time after the BC are just 2 for 8 since 1996. The last two winners who continued to race, Ashado and Round Pond, both finished out of the money in their first start back. So I’m sure there will be those clinging to those numbers and hoping that Ginger Punch simply doesn’t fire. I’m going to resist the temptation to get interesting and simply stick with Ginger Punch. The only horse who looks as if they have any chance against her is Bayou’s Lassie but there is so much pace in here I’m not sure if she’ll be good enough. Leah’s Secret could step up for Pletcher but that is basically a shot in the dark. Ginger Punch would basically have to regress to her maiden race form to be in any danger here. I think the pace works against her slightly and I’ve never been totally convinced that she loves 9f but she is in a different class.

Ginger Punch

Sunshine Millions Turf
I see this as the most interesting race on the Gulfstream card. There are many ways you could go and that should mean some nice prices, even for the well regarded horses. Icy Atlantic might be the main focus after his 4th, 3rd and 2nd place finishes in this race. He has run progressively better in this fixture over the past three years and it would be quite fitting if he culminated that run with a win. This is likely the easiest field he will have faced on Sunshine Millions day so the chance is there. Since coming to Pletcher the only times he has really underperformed is when he’s been in against G-1 level horses or when he’s been used as a pacemaker. On his own this gallant 7yo has been a steady performer. I respect him a great deal but most likely we’re looking at 3 or 4/1 on a horse who could easily beat this group but could also easily lose to this group. It’s an even field, no sense jumping at a chance to play the favorite. A horse I actually adore in this race is the “other” Pletcher horse Ruff And Ready. He has had physical issues all his life and has managed only 9 starts over 4 years. Pletcher brought him back in late 07 in a race that came off the turf and he looked like he needed it. Next time out they got him back on his preferred surface and he ran a huge race against very solid allowance class horses. The pace was quick and he was in a decent spot right in behind the speed but as they swung for home Johnny V committed to the rail and he got squeezed. By the time he got through there was not much ground left and the closers were coming hard on the outside. Ruff and Ready got through the gap and managed to get his nose to the line first while still not up to top speed. In races prior to his latest big setback he showed a very nice turf of foot and his speed figures, while not all that fast, are decent enough to make you think he could step up into stakes company. No one has beaten him on the grass and I like him to pull off the upset. War Monger also has a huge chance, Mott has brought him along slowly but has also campaigned him as he would a future star. War Monger has done very well and this is actually not the toughest race he’s ever run in. The Jamaica Handicap was a brutal race to make a stakes debut in and to make matters worse they changed styles on him in that one. It would not surprise me at all to see this horse go on to be one of the best in the east and this is a logical first step. I notice the morning line has 6/1 on him. If you get anything near that it’s a gift. The Californians don’t look that great. Epic Power and Lucky J.H. have chances to hit the board but I’m going to stay with the Eastern horses in this one. French Vintage is an interesting bomb. He was closing hard against tougher just a few weeks back on the same course. The added distance and lighter competition makes him dangerous and a much better contender than his odds will suggest. It’s hard for one run closers to have a consistent winning percentage and he’s on an 8 race losing streak, but his form is good, it’s just that the setup’s have not been there. There seems to be a good amount of pace here so don’t rule him out.

Ruff And Ready
War Monger
French Vintage

Since the weekend is long past and nothing much happened anyway I’ll dispense with the weekend review for this week. I’ll still remember to tally my losing bets for the weekend but those results will be combined with this weeks tally. Now onto the Derby Top 10.

1. War Pass (1)
2. Colonel John (2)
3. Tale Of Ekati (3)
4. Pyro (4)
5. Court Vision (5)
6. Into Mischief (6)
7. Kodiak Kowboy (7)
8. Country Star (8)
9. Z Fortune (9)
10. El Gato Malo (10)

This week I’m starting to essentially have a paradigm shift in the way I’m assessing the Derby contenders. When the list is first created it is based largely on 2yo form. That is really all we have to go off of. But I am beginning to suspect that much of the 2yo form we saw was not all that great and in many cases the 3yo’s we see who pop up with big moves are actually superior in quality. Salute The Sarge, Wicked Style and Slew’s Tiznow have all been dropped off the radar. None of them have worked yet this year and I’d rather go with hot horses who are less exposed. That trio could possibly work their way back on the list but they have to prove it with their 3yo form and the lack of works makes that an more unlikely scenario. War Pass remains at #1 despite the news of his bout of colic. The main reason is because there is not any other horse who actually deserves the #1 slot. I know it is still January but we have not seen an overabundance of impressive 3yo’s, we’ve hardly seen any. A few that I’m looking forward to. Signature Move, an Eric Guillot horse is being bullishly touted by his connections. He is 3-2-0-1 in his career with an allowance win around two turns. They are already plotting where he will go after he “wins the Risen Star”. Never mind that it will be his stakes debut his connections have no doubt at all that he’ll be the winner. After seeing the way he moved away from his competition last time I’m not sure I disagree with them. There have been 4 impressive races at Gulfstream that have caught my eye. Elysium Fields was the latest, he got blinkers for the first time and easily confirmed the promise he had hinted at when losing his first three starts. Blinkers can often make a horse turn the corner as we clearly saw with Daaher. Another horse who actually beat Elysium Fields at Laurel and came back with a good GP race of his own was Visionaire. This Matz trainee has been quite impressive without ever being that fast but very often you’ll see talented horses move their speed figures up significantly once they’re pressed in stakes company. Jockey Ridge owns the co-highest Beyer Speed Figure at this stage for his win in a 6.5f race at Gulfstream. It was the classic step forward off a solid debut. I don’t really like the way that he appeared so comfortable going right to the lead and out sprinting everyone else but he’s bred to go longer so we’ll keep an eye out. Lastly Kentucky Bear burst onto the scene with a very nice debut performance. He has a bit awkward in parts but he was much the best and won for fun. I’m not sure that any of his competition really showed up but it was probably the best career debut of any 3yo so far this year. All of these horses mentioned get added to the radar for this week while the top 10 remains unchanged.

On the radar: Monba, Signature Move, Elysium Fields, Visionaire, Kentucky Bear, Riley Tucker, Jockey Ridge Atoned, Etched, Fidelio, Alaazo, J Be K, Wise Answer, Turf War, Z Humor, Massive Drama, Cowboy Cal, Golden Yank

Dropped: Salute The Sarge, Wicked Style, Slew’s Tiznow

The votes have been tallied and the final results tabulated. Curlin wins the TCR Horse of the Year by a substantial margin!

The vision of the TCR Awards is to give recognition to the horses whose on track accomplishments have merited special notice.

TCR point standings have been updated all year long giving us a picture of every horse’s accomplishments in numerical form. These point standings are then combined with a fans vote at the end of the year to determine the champions.

For a more detailed look at how the TCR is calculated you may visit here. You can also view the complete standings from 2007 to 1999 as well as detailed results from the TCR Awards at this link. The TCR Award results will also be on display on the sidebar at Kennedy’s Corridor for the next week.

2007 TCR Award Winners
Horse Of The Year - Curlin
Older Male - Lawyer Ron
Older Female - Ginger Punch
Turf Male - English Channel
Turf Female - Precious Kitten
Male Sprinter - Midnight Lute
Female Sprinter - River’s Prayer
Three Year Old Male - Curlin
Three Year Old Female - Rags To Riches
Two Year Old Male - War Pass
Two Year Old Female - Indian Blessing

No major surprises as all 11 award winners were also the top ranked horses in the TCR standings. All but one winner (River’s Prayer) were also the top vote getter’s in each category. The Turf Female Division was a contentious one but top scorer Precious Kitten also received the most votes from fans narrowly over Lahudood. She had a champions campaign and is a most deserving winner. River’s Prayer finished first in the rankings and a narrow second in the voting and that was enough to hold off Dream Rush and Maryfield who both received a lot of support as well. In fact those three were separated by less than 2% in the voting. River’s Prayer never lost in 2007 and she won on 3 different surfaces including a sound beating of Maryfield in the G-1 Princess Rooney.

I think this was yet another successful year for the TCR Awards as it continues to demonstrate that point systems despite the fears surrounding them, do come out with logical results. And that a well thought out approach in terms of voting guidelines, divisional guidelines could easily be adopted.

We look forward to an excellent 2008. Standings for the current year will be posted starting next week.

I’m quite intrigued with rankings. Even before I got into creating my own point system I spent a lot of time perusing over all types of different rankings like the Timeform Rankings, Globeform, Racing Post Ratings, the Experimental Free Handicap and of course the IFHA World Thoroughbred Rankings. They are likely the most respected rankings anywhere in the world. Although America in general treats any world ranking system with skepticism bordering on derision this is definitely the one ranking that is best accepted.

America does not officially recognize a “Horse of the World” in any given year but unofficially the IFHA top ranked horse claims the title the world over.

All of these rankings are based on the Experimental Free Weight Handicap concept that you rate a horse according to the weight differential necessary to make two horses equal. So if your horse was rated 124 and mine 120 it means that in the opinion of the rankings my horse would have to carry 4 lbs less than yours in a race in order for it to be a fair contest.

The problem with this type of ranking is A) they’re based solely on the opinions of an expert panel and B) they represent only what the handicappers assume to be the horses top effort. Accomplishments are never brought into the picture. It is simply an attempt to identify which horse is the best at their best. That is why you’ll see a horse like Any Given Saturday listed below. He was by no means one of the 10 most accomplished horses in the World in 2007, but in the panels opinion his Haskell was one of the 10 best races of the year.

IFHA World Thoroughbred Ranking
1. Manduro (GER) 131 FR
2. Authorized (IRE) 129 GB
2. Curlin (USA) 129 USA
2. Dylan Thomas (IRE) 129 IRE
2. Invasor (ARG) 129 USA
6. Street Sense (USA) 126 USA
7. Admire Moon (JPN) 125 JPN
7. English Channel (USA) 125 USA
7. Soldier Of Fortune (IRE) 125 IRE
10. Any Given Saturday (USA) 124 USA
10. Lawyer Ron (USA) 124 USA
10. Youmzain (IRE) 124 GB

I personally believe that accomplishments are more worthy of laud so I put my own TCR point system into use and tried to get a picture of who the top 10 most accomplished horses in the world were.

TCR World Overall Top 10
1. Dylan Thomas - 491.90 IRE
2. Curlin - 460.20 USA
3. English Channel - 334.60 USA
4. Miss Andretti - 315.80 AUS
5. Street Sense - 311.08 USA
6. Admire Moon - 309.00 JPN
7. Hard Spun - 292.08 USA
8. Ginger Punch - 288.38 USA
9. Manduro - 286.60 FR
10. Ramonti - 264.50 GB

Viva Pataca (256.96) and El Segundo (253.80) narrowly missed the top 10 representing Hong Kong and Australia respectively. A few will likely react to Dylan Thomas’s name at the head of the list but this is based on accomplishments only and he did have quite the year. Manduro is ranked just 9th but injury halted his campaign. A win in the Arc (a race he would have been favored for) would have seen him climb to the top.

Just something to think about if you happen to have the same fascination with rankings as I.

It seems that every year the Dosage figures of all the Derby contenders get bandied about. Some get drawn into the notion that only certain horses with a certain Dosage profile are bred to win the Derby. I beg to differ, a look at the numbers suggests that Dosage and the Dual Qualifier system has no validity at all. I think that it is flawed to the core. For those of you who aren’t aware what Dosage and Dual Qualifiers are here is a brief explanation.

Dosage is a points system that essentially tries to predict a horses most effective racing distances by their breeding. The rule of thumb is that no horse with a Dosage over 4.00 has the breeding to be a Derby winner. A Dual Qualifier is simply a horse with Dosage less than 4.00 and a rating on the Experimental Free Handicap that is within 10lbs of the division leader. That is to say the two components are breeding and a solid 2yo season.

Dosage is useless as a handicapping tool. It was created to be useful with past data and has a poor record going forward. Its effectiveness is decreasing with each passing generation because new sires come onto the scene and don’t get added to the Chef-de-race list until their progeny have already proven themselves. Another reason why its useless is because it eliminates virtually nobody. In the past 12 years 89% of the Derby starters have had a dosage of 4 or less. So essentially on average 18 of the 20 starters have the requisite Dosage to win the Derby. The cumulative record of the non-Dosage qualifiers is 23-3-1-1. Ironically if you focus on the 23 horses who didn’t have a low dosage you might have done very well indeed.

In 12 years you’ve got just 23 horses who didn’t have a dosage of 4.00 or less from 214 starters. A straight win bet on each prospect would have cost $46 and returned $186. A tidy little 328% ROI. Also the non-Dosage qualifiers boast a sturdy 2.34 Impact Value, meaning that each horse with a dosage of over 4.00 has won the Derby almost two and half times more than they would be statistically expected to do.

The problem with the dosage system is that its based on stallion progeny statistics which of course are only relevant once the stallions progeny record is complete. That is why this system struggles on a going forward basis. It can only tell 10 years after the fact who the chef’s-de-race for that period actually were. It is a lagging quantifier instead of a leading indicator.

The reason Dual Qualifiers doesn’t really work is because not only is Dosage fundamentally flawed but the Experimental Free Handicap is also flawed. First of all its a ranking compiled based on the opinions of handicappers. Like Timeform or the International Classification ratings its a subjective rating. Secondly the way 2yo’s and 3yo’s are being campaigned differs greatly from how they were in the 70’s and 80’s. 2yo’s are maxxed out in order to capitalize on their precocity and are washed up by the time the Derby preps roll around. Top Derby candidates are often brought around slowly and often aren’t cranked up until they’re 3yo’s.

Street Sense did manage to win the Derby as a Dual Qualifier last year. However he was actually just 1 of the 8 Dual Qualifiers in the race so betting on them was again a losing proposition. Dual Qualifiers since 1996 have compiled a Derby record of 42-2-2-2 and have yielded a shabby -69.3% ROI. Compare that to the figures for the non Dosage qualifiers above then decide which one you think looks better.

The performance of the Dual Qualifiers in the Derby itself has been declining every single decade since it’s inception.

1973-79
7 races
7 winners (100.0%)
19 DQs (19.8%)
36.8% DQ winners
96 starters
IV = 5.05

1980-89
10 races
8 winners (80.0%)
33 DQs (19.3%)
24.2% DQ winners
171 starters
IV = 4.15

1990-99
10 races
5 winners (55.6%)
39 DQs (25.7%)
12.8% DQ winners
152 starters
IV = 2.16

2000-07
8 races
1 winners (12.5%)
28 DQs (18.9%)
3.8% DQ winners
148 starters
IV = 0.66

The one thing you ought to note is that the DQ system has a declining winning pct for every successive decade of data provided. To get a better picture you should remove the years 1973 to 1983. Those years are of course perfect, because the system was created on historical data and was not officially released until 1984. The real test of a system is not using back tested data but from a certain point going forward.

Since 1983 there have been 24 Derby’s and just 10 Derby winners fit the system. What it means for the Dosage theory is that its most successful period was prior to its actual creation, which of course leads one to assume curve fitting was an integral part of the research. On a going forward basis the entire system has been under performing. Even look at the system on a 5 year basis

4 of 5
2 of 5
3 of 5
0 of 5
1 of 4

The system has been irrelevant since 5 years after it was created. Up to that time it only missed 1 of 16 Derby’s. Since then its gone 6 for 19.

This very much flies in the face of conventional wisdom, pretty much everyone accepts that Dosage is a handy tool to help narrow down Derby contenders, but the real test of every system is how well it does going forward. Even my own Triple Crown 20-20 is a system in its infancy based primarily on historical data. If it fails to perform over the next 5 years it will be a useless fraud.

Be very careful about the Statistics you accept. Just because they seem good at a glance doesn’t mean they’re useful at all. Among the horses on this years Triple Crown Trail with a Dosage greater than 4.00 are War Pass and El Gato Malo. It remains to be seen if either will make it to the Derby but as of now both look like decent plays. It may be yet another tough year for the Dosage system.