Weekend Overview: Evening Attire was the highlight of the American racing weekend, most of the other big news came from Hong Kong where once again they staged a top class meet that featured fantastic fields and classy winners. Sacred Kingdom is officially the new king of turf sprinting. This once beaten budding star was fantastic at Sha Tin, hopefully his connections decide to go international with him. Maybe even a tilt at the new BC Turf Sprint, we can always cross our fingers.

Performance of the Week: How about the gallant old Evening Attire missing the break and appearing to be not doing enough in mid stretch only to come alive and run down the loose speed. This was one of those moments I wished I could have witnessed live. It’s not a race that will go down in history as one of the greats but it will likely live on as the defining race of Evening Attire’s storied career. Every fan of racing in NY will remember this race forever. It may even result in him getting his own stakes race at Aqueduct. I think it would be fitting if they renamed the Queen’s County.

Race of the Week: The race of the week was definitely the Hong Kong Mile. For those who haven’t seen it follow the link provided. A top class field of milers going to post and just a nose to separate the top two in a very fast finish. Good Ba Ba just got the better of improving European Creachadoir with the fantastic filly Darjina back in third.

Flop of the Weekend: Ravel was supposed to have a coming out party in the Native Diver, instead he looked uncomfortable all the way around and he had no kick. Perhaps it’s a good sign that he ran 4th without showing much but a 4th place finish still stands out as a terrible underachievement for this “superstar to be”.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Not much action atop the standings as you’d expect from a quiet week. Doctor Dino did move to 11th overall with this win in the Hong Kong Vase. He is not eligible to win any TCR awards because he did not make a minimum of 3 starts in North America but he did start here at least once so his name appears on the overall ranking. For comparison’s sake he would rank 4th in the Turf Male division. Sunriver moved to 8th in the Turf division with his big win at Hollywood. He might be the American horse to beat in the Breeders Cup next year.

Tip O’the Cap: Evening Attire deserves a standing ovation for his gutsy performance in the Queens County but I like to try to be original so this week’s tip o’the cap goes to Frankie Dettori who plainly out rode Mick Kinane in the Hong Kong Gold Cup. It was the biggest race of the weekend by far and Dettori on Ramonti showed Kinane a thing or two about timing and judging the pace. Viva Pataca was brave in defeat and Kinane did not necessarily ride him poorly it’s just that Frankie rode a textbook race on a very brave horse who has stuck his neck out and reached for the line on more than one occasion this year.

KC Handicapping: Another tough week of handicapping. The surface and conditions switch did not help Isipingo or Champs Elysees to get out of their funk. Ravel and Cave’s Valley simply ran poorly and Spring House did as well as could be expected with a bad ride and the level of competition he was facing. I got the pace all wrong in the Hollywood Turf Cup I though for sure the other Frankel horse would press Sunriver but he didn’t put any pressure of note on him and Sunriver is too classy to leave alone. So I remain winless with my selections thus far, hopefully the tide will turn next week.

My Hong Kong Analysis worked out much better. It’s a shame those bets don’t count. I selected 12 horses over 4 races and the cumulative record was 12-2-2-1. My top picks went just 1 for 4 but Doctor Dino was about a 7/1 winner, he was my best bet of the meet as well. Ramonti was about 4/1 so all in all I would have made money flat betting those selections to win.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 5(3)-0-1-2 (-$10.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 7(4)-0-1-3 (-$14.00 -100.00% ROI)

Delta Jackpot Stakes
This is probably the best field ever assembled for the Delta Jackpot. Although Cave’s Valley is listed at 6/1 on the morning line I think there is a good chance that he’ll be the post time favorite. He seems to be the wise guy selection. I don’t blame anyone for selecting him. He is one of my top 10 Derby hopes and I do expect him to run at least first or second in here. Anything less may see his reputation severely downgraded in my mind. But Cave’s Valley, unlike the morning line favorite Z Humor, has all the right tools to beat this field on this track. It’s a 6f bullring so a one paced plodder like Z Humor might be up against it. While the quick and agile Cave’s Valley should have no trouble with the turns and short stretch at all. The pace should be solid so I expect that Cave’s Valley will be rated. Another horse I like in here is Racecar Rhapsody. I think he’ll turn into a very good one but my feeling is that Cave’s Valley is simply better. I don’t really like taking Cave’s Valley if he dips below 3/1 but he is the horse that I consider to be the most likely winner.

Cave’s Valley

Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes
This is a much more open race than I was expecting. Sunriver and Champs Elysees have been getting all the attention but this race could be won by several different horses. Spring House has to be respected as he has really improved since coming to Canani. I think they took a race or two to figure him out but the Carleton Burke was a coming of age for him and I expect him to build off that performance. They found that the best way to ride him is relatively close but don’t move him early. Soft ground should not be a problem for him and he should get a nice pace to track. Sudan is a wild card in this race but you have to think that his best form could be good enough. He gave Rail Link and Red Rocks a few good contests as a 3yo but has never really been on track as an older horse. I’m inclined to go against him but I do respect his chances. Sunriver is likely to be undone by the ground and the presence of Cheif Running Bear and Heroi Do Bafra. I think both of those horses might show speed and although Sunriver’s is classier than both of them their pressure should take it’s toll. Champs Elysees is definitely the horse to beat. He should get a good pace to run at, he’s got the super patient Leparoux on board. His breeding is second to none and the distance and ground she be no problem. What I don’t like is that he might be even money unless the bettors really come in for Sunriver. I think perhaps that Spring House could get the jump on Champs Elysees and just maybe he’ll have enough to hold him off, but I’d use both just in case.

Spring House
Champs Elysees

Native Diver Handicap
I was not going to even look at this race. It seemed like a spot tailor made for Ravel but when I did decide to give it a cursory glance I noticed a few interesting alternatives to Pletcher’s super horse in waiting. There is no question that Ravel has looked phenomenal in his career to date and likely he should cream this field and go on to be one of the top older horses in the nation. But so far in his career he has not yet had that huge breakout performance, essentially if he only runs back to his career best then he’s beatable. It’s possible that he could improve on his career best but he’s a 3yo against stakes quality older males for the first time and he’s drawn the rail. I was mildly interested in Bold Chieftain but I think he’s reached his peak and third place would be a good result for him. Racketeer is a very good horse on his day, he even managed to beat Awesome Gem who later ran third in the BC Classic. But I don’t love the layoff against a group that is mostly fresh but has the advantage of recency. I’m intrigued by Isipingo, I always like to figure out why horses are entered in the races they end up in. Isipingo has never run on any surface but Turf and he’s been competing well against some of the principles in the Hollywood Turf Cup, yet they elected to go on the all weather surface instead. I think one of the main factor’s behind that decision is the distance. Isipingo will do far better at 9f than he will at 12f. His breeding is curious as it definitely suggests turf however his sire did win his only North American dirt start in dominant fashion. They are still trying to figure this horse out but if his Turf form translates directly to Cushion Track he will be right in there. He likes to stalk the pace and make a move once the real running begins, basically identical to what Ravel will be hoping to do except Isipingo has a better draw in post 5. This is a horse who is still learning after 10 career starts but he has already run well enough to nearly beat The Tin Man. Another real positive factor for him is that he seems to be coming into his own physically. I was very impressed with how his coat looked and how well muscled he was in the Carleton Burke as compared to what he looked like in the summer.

Isipingo
Ravel

Overview: The Hong Kong International Races are an annual highlight for me. There are three big international race meetings all year that I consider to be championship type events. The Dubai World Cup, the Breeders Cup and the Hong Kong International. The quality of racing really is that good. Now they do not offer any racing aside from Turf racing so it does not typically attract much American participation, but neither does the Breeders Cup attract much Asian or Australian competition. Over the four Hong Kong International races you’ll see horses from Europe, Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan. One of the best things about the Hong Kong International meeting is the information they make available to the fans free of charge. You can get Past Performances (below), watch the workouts, see a few races from the International participants and of course you can watch any race conducted in Hong Kong over the last year as well as viewing all the past HKIR events.

In this years events we have a ton of good story lines and plenty of high profile races. In the Sprint we have Australian Horse of the Year Miss Andretti facing superstar to be Sacred Kingdom. In the Mile Darjina will be a hot favorite. Dylan Thomas will try to end his season off in style in the Vase and then in the Hong Kong Cup we have Viva Pataca against archrival Vengence of Rain. I’ll do my best to handicap these races but given the different structure of the gambling scene and the different currency involved these picks will not count towards the blog handicapping scorecard. These are just some novelty plays.

Hong Kong Sprint
I wish this were just as simple as Miss Andretti vs Sacred Kingdom but there are many more horses capable of winning this race, not the least of which Absolute Power who won this race by a record margin last year while setting a track record. The first thing that stands out to me is that all the principles like to be ridden from off the pace, which is an odd phenomenon in a Sprint race. There is virtually no early speed in here at all and I think that gives a slight advantage to Why Be, the highest rated horse in Singapore. He likes to go to the front and he might control this race. Having only run in Singapore his chances against international competition are not though of as excellent but the pace scenario has to move him up. Just two years back a similar situation existed with the speedy Natural Blitz who hailed from Macau. He never looked back once the gates opened. Miss Andretti is clearly the horse to beat in my mind though and she does have the ability to sit rather close to the pace without cover and still make a good run. Sacred Kingdom sometimes gets close to the front but without cover he gets quite rank. I would expect them to tuck him in and hope for a seam when it counts. I think that gives Miss Andretti the advantage of first run and if Why Be is not digging in she should be the horse they’ll be trying to run down. Absolute Champion was easily handled last time out by Sacred Kingdom but they still train the old way in Hong Kong where prep races are used to bring horses around, especially 6 year olds like this guy. He should improve off the run and his trainer is saying he is better now than he was going into the race last year. That has to make him a huge factor and with his experience edge over Sacred Kingdom I’m actually going to tab him as the best of the locals for this race. European Sprinters are often scoffed at on the International scene but Benbaun has done himself credit in this race running third last year. His form is much improved this year and it would not shock me to see the gallant old gelding improve on that performance. The only question mark with him is that he likes to come from last and much of his best form has come on straight tracks. If you happen to be at a location that permits wagering on these races then Benbaun is a great horse to use underneath. Why Be is consistent against lesser competition and is also quite the battler. I think he’ll either win this event or run poorly. Miss Andretti is the safe play and she may even offer value as Sacred Kingdom will get the local money. In the end I think I’ll go with Miss Andretti but not ignoring the upset chances of Why Be and Absolute Champion. If Sacred Kingdom is truly the super horse his fans claim he is then he’ll beat me, but I’m going to make him beat me.

Miss Andretti
Why Be
Absolute Champion

Hong Kong Vase
This race is typically dominated by the Europeans and I think this year it will be par for the course. 9 of the 13 entrants represent Europe and between Dylan Thomas, Doctor Dino, Quijano and Red Rocks I don’t see any room for a local to land a blow. Those 4 principles should decide this race between them and I’m looking for a shock in this race. I think Dylan Thomas can be beaten again. It’s not that he has been particularly unimpressive in his gallops but it has been a long season and he might not be at the level he once was. Doctor Dino on the other hand is the most impressive horse I’ve seen in the whole meet. He looks colossal in his gallops and is clearly a horse in fine form right now. His form is already nearly good enough to tackle Dylan Thomas. Add in his peak physical condition and his proven ability to ship and run well and I think Doctor Dino is your winner. He has not been the distance yet but he should easily stay 12f on this course. It’s what they would call a “soft” or “easy” 12f. I also think Red Rocks is sitting on a big race. Not sure if he’s up to winning the contest but I do expect one of his best efforts of the campaign. He should be running late and could do as well as second or even first should some bad luck befall Dylan and the Doctor. I’m not big on Quijano, I think he is a shade below top class and he looks a little gaunt right now. His form on paper looks okay but my suspicion is that he is not as good as the form suggests.

Doctor Dino
Dylan Thomas
Red Rocks

Hong Kong Mile
Always a very even contest, the Sprint is dominated by Australian breds and the Vase by Europeans but the Mile is routinely won by an eclectic mix of horses from all over. There is no regional advantage and this is one race where the locals have a really strong shout despite the presence of some tough Europeans. Darjina and Excellent Art have dominated much of the pre-race build up. Two of Europe’s finest milers without a doubt. Good Ba Ba is drawing a lot of local support after a fine win in the local trial. I think Excellent Art is vulnerable. He always comes with a run but losing is a mindset and Excellent Art is in the habit of not getting by. The pace should be solid so it might setup for him but I’m leaning against. Darjina on the other hand is not a great horse to oppose. She has looked in fine form and on any ground aside from soft she has been spectacular. She figures to get her type of ground in this race and it is hard not to see her doing her best. The only real question mark is traffic, when you come from the back you need some luck in running. I’m not a fan of Good Ba Ba at all. I think he’s a terrible gamble to take off that big performance in the prep race. He’s a decent sort but quite beatable. I much prefer Floral Pegasus to him. Floral Pegasus was just a length behind Ramonti in this fixture last year and he has since had surgery to correct his breathing. He was not at all ready in his first start back and he nearly denied Good Ba Ba in the Trial. They still use prep races in the traditional sense in Hong Kong and I think this is a horse that moves up off that race. I think he’ll be primed and ready to spring the surprise. Kongo Rikishio should set a strong gallop and may be largely uncontested but I don’t see him being able to outrun this field. I’ll take Floral Pegasus in a tight decision over Darjina with Excellent Art or Joyful Winner coming in third.

Floral Pegasus
Darjina
Excellent Art

Hong Kong Cup
This race is all about two horses. Vengence of Rain and Viva Pataca. Ramonti has been entered and some will give him a chance but aside from his class and enormous heart he does not have much going for him. He is the horse they’ll both have to pass but I think the final furlong will find him out and he won’t be able to withstand two legitimate G-1 level 10f horses. He is streets above the rest of the chaff in this race so he should stay on for third but this race is about Hong Kong’s leading pair. In the Spring these two had it out 3 times with Viva Pataca taking the last two of those meetings. It is that form that will see him slightly favored here. But I think those races were not as conclusive as the 3 length winning margin in the Champions & Chater suggests. Popular opinion is that Vengence of Rain was slightly superior when they first met but by the end of the head to head matchups Viva Pataca had improved beyond the 7 year old. My personal impression was that Vengence of Rain looked tired after his trip to Dubai. He never had the same punch and in any event he is probably not as good over 12f. But 10f is right up his alley and I loved his prep comeback. Viva Pataca took a 10f trial race in fine style but Venegence of Rain was intentionally entered in a spot where he had little to no chance. He was never going to beat good milers over their preferred distance but he came with a huge run in the final furlong to be 5th. That race should set him up beautifully for yet another win in the Hong Kong Cup. He is fresh and his trainer knows how to get him set up for a big day. I think his marked preference for the course and distance stands him in good stead against Viva Pataca.

Vengence Of Rain
Viva Pataca
Ramonti

Money talks.  And that’s why the Derby trail begins this weekend at, of all places, Delta Downs.  The dust has settled from the BC Juvenile and War Pass has clinched the Eclipse for best two-year-old, but in a matter of weeks that will simply be what a three-year-old did last year.  The $1,000,000 race has attracted a field of ten, including two that ran in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, and two more that are undefeated in three starts.

#4 Z Humor is the morning line favorite despite a 19 length drubbing on BC day at the hands of War Pass, but he was only beaten two a half lengths by Kodiak Kowboy for third.   Before that, he earned a 104 Beyer going a mile in finishing third to War Pass and Pyro in the Champagne.  Previous to that, he was third in the Sapling.  For all his class, all he has in his win column is a maiden score.  Perhaps he is a plodder who is happy to run with the pack.   Still, it is hard to toss a horse whose lowest BRIS speed figure ever is a 92.  I think he is most likely to finish second or third.

 #6 Cave’s Valley is listed at 6-1 on the morning line, but I think will likely go off the favorite due to a 101 BRIS figure going the same distance in winning the Dover Stakes over Atoned.  He improved several lengths that day and easily beat two horses he struggled to beat going one mile, Atoned and Cudjo.  He’s fast, he finishes strong, but now he is tested for class.  He’s the horse to beat.

#2 Golden Yank is the other undefeated colt, but doesn’t quite boast BRIS numbers as high as some of the others.  He has a nice stalking style, has finished strongly, and won very easily, but he too is tested for class.  I give him an outside chance, but think the test will be tougher for him than Cave’s Valley.

#3 Overextended is the other horse exiting the BC Juvy, where he was beaten 21 lengths in finishing 7th.  But he was only beaten a little over two lengths by Z Humor, who is the morning line favorite.  Blinkers go back on, but I’m not sure that will be a factor.  He’s a consistent horse but doesn’t look fast enough to win here.

 #7 Racecar Rhapsody is the most likely horse to come flying late and run down Cave’s Valley.  So far, he hasn’t been quite fast enough, but he has shown nice closing kick and is likely to get a lively pace here with Betatron, Cudjo, Cave’s Valley and St. Joe all likely to show some early foot.  Very dangerous here.

#1 Betatron has a nice 100 BRIS number last out, but that 6f win only shows he’s figured it out sprinting against weaker horses.  Can he stretch that out to a mile and a sixteenth?  His pedigree says he should be OK, but his past races show him struggling late more often than not.  Might be worth a small flyer if the price is right, but iffy at best going this distance.

#5 Cudjo has been unable to hold off Cave’s Valley in two tries, and is getting further away.  He might prefer 6-7 furlongs.

#8 St. Joeis sired by Trippi, and so far, has run like one.  That means he’s fast and classy, but might prefer shorter. 

#9 Turf War isn’t bad if you toss his last race, but since the other races were sprints and the last one was today’s distance, that’s hard to do.  Perhaps he bounced and the rest could do him good, but I must pass.

#10 Take the Money was terrible when stretching out last time, although he’s bred to go a distance, he didn’t run like it; pass.

Cave’s Valley/Racecar Rhapsody on top

Z Humor, Overextended, Golden Yank underneath

Betatron on a few flyers with above. 

Starting in the new year I’ll be updating my personal Derby Top 10 on a weekly basis, until then I’ll just post my initial list. I apologize for it’s length. I promise that the weekly updates won’t be nearly this long. I just wanted to give you all an idea of why I liked these specific horses. From this point on the Top 10 will be focused primarily on recent occurances not past accomplishments, but I felt a solid base of context was necessary. That and I just started writing and didn’t realize how much I’d done until it was too late!

Derby Top 10 - December

1. War Pass
2. Colonel John
3. Tale of Ekati
4. Pyro
5. Court Vision
6. Cave’s Valley
7. Kodiak Kowboy
8. Majestic Warrior
9. Wise Answer
10. Riley Tucker

War Pass had to be put on top of the list at this point because the reality is that no horse has proven himself to be in the same class as him thus far and it is entirely possible that we are simply witnessing one of the great talents of our time. That often gets said about 2yo’s that look promising but War Pass is utterly dominant and has received the highest speed figures of any 2yo on record. Some talk warily of his ability to stretch out or what might happen to him when he is faced with a speed duel but his competition tried that in the BC Juvenile and no horse in that race was capable of going with him early and of course none could catch him late. This was not merely a front running score it was a clear display from War Pass that he is in a different class. For the record I’m not fond of how Zito prepares his Triple Crown horses but War Pass could be good enough to overcome that. Colonel John has impressed me as the best of the rest, the 2yo crop has not seemed to be very good but sometimes that happens when you have a real star. Colonel John has all the right tools to eventually be a #1 Derby horse. He’s quick, he’s got some handy speed, he’s bred to run long and he’s already handled two turns with ease. He has not yet run on real dirt and so far Tiznow’s progeny has been better on All-Weather tracks but I’m not going to assume that’s a problem until it becomes one. Tale Of Ekati is a horse I regard very highly. I disliked him in the Juvenile because I thought he was not prepared the right way for it. Still he ran a good race to be 4th while appearing not to get a hold of the track. He’s a quick horse who I think we’ve yet to see the best of. Tagg should take him along the traditional Gulfstream/Aqueduct route and I expect him to be a dominant horse in the preps. I have Pyro ranked 4th despite his fine late closing finishes and good speed figures. I do love the way he runs on and one can hardly be blamed for losing to War Pass but he’s lost to him 3 times in a row and that kind of dominance can effect a horse mentally. I want to see him start to win some races and he should get a chance to do that at the Fair Grounds. Court Vision has everything you could ask for from a Derby prospect except for the fact that he seems about 10 lengths slower than the best of this crop. He may improve as time goes on and a look at his record and accomplishments without race times make him a peer or War Pass. But this is the value of speed figures. When they are consistently slow it often indicates that the horse is slow. I have a wary eye on Court Vision if he does not start to get fast in a hurry he won’t stick around long. Cave’s Valley is a bit of an oddball selection but I find it hard to criticize an undefeated Saratoga maiden winner who has already won two minor stakes races going long. He is 3 for 3 lifetime with a 92 Beyer around two turns, his other figures have been quite slow though and there is some question as to why he has been kept at Delaware recently if he’s so good. But he got an excellent form reference in the Remsen when Atoned nearly beat Court Vision after almost falling. Cave’s Valley beat Atoned twice in a row including one very dominant performance. That form suggests he can run with many of the best horses in the East. He has good early speed but has also won from off the pace and is conditioned by Micheal Trombetta who had Sweetnorthernsaint a few years back. He might take the winter route through Aqueduct or head to Gulfstream after a run in the Delta Jackpot. Kodiak Kowboy is the class benchmark of the generation. Like Scat Daddy or More Than Ready he is a classy and consistent horse who probably has distance limitations but that should not affect him in the preps where he will be a tough horse to beat every time he runs. Do I see him winning the Derby? Probably not, but at this early stage I’d rather highlight a horse who will be a major factor in the preps than some maiden. Majestic Warrior gets one race to prove that his Champagne was a fluke. The Hopeful form did not work out at all and if not for his breeding I would have likely tossed him already. But he was so bad in the Champagne that he deserves another shot. Wise Answer is another horse that is on a short leash as far as his standing in this ranking goes. He’s shown brilliant speed going short and long and for the most part he’s been fantastic. He also got a great form reference from Check It Twice, a horse he demolished in the In Reality who has not lost since. But he might be nothing more than a Calder flash so I’ll want to see him confirm this form on another track. If he proves to be just as good away from Calder he could easily be a top 3 prospect. Riley Tucker is another Mott horse that I think highly of. He struck me as a very good horse that has yet to figure things out. He was far too good for the horses he faced in his debut then ran a good third to Kodiak Kowboy and The Roundhouse in the Saratoga Special. He was ridden too aggressively on the front end that day and tired. In his next start he was taken back and made a good run to the front but seemed to pull up a bit once he hit the front and Wicked Style came on again to deny him by a head. He has since been injured and Mott does not have him back on the work tab but I liked what I saw from his juvenile campaign so if he comes back in good time and continues to improve he could be a very useful horse.

On the radar:
Salute The Sarge – A very consistent performer in California I don’t think the Breeders Cup was necessarily a good indication of what he could do on dirt. He get’s another try.
Slew’s Tiznow – Pointing to the Hollywood Futurity and could be one of the favorites for that race. The form from the Breeders Futurity has not worked out all that well yet but he does appear to be a progressive sort.
Wicked Style – Another Juvenile retread, he looked great prior to the race so I can’t toss him based on a bad performance in the slop.
Atoned – Although Cave’s Valley handled him with ease and Court Vision overcame trouble to deny him atoned does appear to be a solid competitor who might turn the corner and become a good one.
Etched – If he were staying in the US he’d be in the top 5 but preparation in Dubai will leave him with a lot to do. He has been phenomenal so far and Anak Nakal a horse he teased in his last start came back to win a G-2.
Country Star – The only filly I’m really watching to have an impact against the boys. Most likely she’ll be run conservatively but it’s possible that she might get a chance against the boys. She certainly appears to have plenty of talent.
Fidelio – Probably Frankel’s best 2yo male, I believe he even tabbed him as his Derby horse. He won his first start well then looked green when losing to War Pass but he still finished second that day ahead of Pyro. Incidentally he and War Pass are the only horses to have beaten Pyro. Did not show much in the Breeders Futurity but dirt may be the key with him.
Alaazo – A Zayat maiden winner for Mott. He won his 8f debut after an extremely eventful trip. He broke slow and endured some bumping that basically caused him to blow the first turn. He made a strong middle move then ran down the loose leader on Monmouth’s speed favoring summer strip. The figure was modest but this horse is bred to get better and better being by AP Indy out of Atelier. He was obviously injured after that start but hopefully he comes back in good order. He is my number prospect among horses who have not yet run in a stakes race.
J Be K – Another Zayat undefeated maiden winner except this one runs for Baffert. He got a huge figure in his first start and it will be interesting to see what he does next.

Check It Twice became a 2-year-old to watch by finally springing to life in the stretch of the What a Pleasure stakes, earning a 96 Beyer for the mile and sixteenth, which is in the top five of Beyers for two-year-olds going further than a mile.  After the lofty figures of War Pass (113) and Pyro (105), there really aren’t many high Beyers this year for two-year-olds going a distance; most have come sprinting.  His pedigree is interesting, by Repent, out of a Out of Place mare.  Out of Place has overall been more of a speed influence with horses like Nightmareaffair, but it looks like a good mix of stamina and speed.  Inbred to Bold Ruler 3×4. 

Country Star, the Empire Maker filly, worked 6 furlongs today at Hollywood in a snappy 1:12 flat; she is a two-year-old to watch.  Unlike many of the top juveniles this year, she is one that should relish the longer distances.  Putting her sex aside, she could actually become one of the three-year-olds to beat in 2008.  Frankel trains the daughter of the much heralded sire Frankel also trained to a 2nd in the Derby and a win in the Belmont. 

Weekend Overview: Winter is here and this was the kind of weekend we’ll be seeing for the next few months. A few graded stakes from Florida and California along with some listed stakes action from Aqueduct’s inner track. Many of the winners will never force their way into the limelight during the peak racing season but this is their chance to earn their keep and maybe some will turn the corner. Digger was heartily maligned when it emerged that he might run in the Belmont stakes but this useful little horse has since won 4 of 5 starts. He dominated the Jennings Handicap at Laurel. Check It Twice looked solid but uninspiring in his first 4 starts and even at the 1/16th pole of the What A Pleasure that opinion seemed to be confirmed but then all at once he seemed to get on track and the leader stopped. It created a visual effect that made his race look better than it was but he received a solid 96 Beyer for this route race and as a son of Repent he could improve as the distance lengthens.

Performance of the Week: I’ll give this to Control System who got her career back on track in a big way in the Garland Of Roses. She started her career with a brilliant 3 for 3 including a win in the G-3 Cicada but then got injured and did not look quite as zippy in her two comeback races. However in this seemingly even race she looked much the best. She easily took control when given her cue and held the rest of the field safe. She may not be ready to win a BC race yet but it was the best performance I saw this weekend and if Control System goes forward off this race she might be a force.

Race of the Week: It has to be the Tropical Turf with it’s tight 3 horse finish. Ballast had not won since last years running of this race but the Graham Motion trainee stuck his neck out to deny the improving National Captain and Minister’s Joy. Ballast had to pick his way through the field to get in position and he showed real determination to hold off National Captain who seemed to have the ideal setup. Minister’s Joy made a big late run on the outside to just miss. This kind of race is exactly why I love turf racing so much. You usually get a great blend of experienced old timers and up and comers and there is often little to separate them at the line.

Flop of the Weekend: I would give this to Host for his race in the Tropical Turf or even Coal Play who stopped like he’d been shot in the What A Pleasure but at least both of those horses managed to beat some of their competition. Sugar Shake failed to beat anyone in the Bayakoa. She was outrun for a lead she obviously looked intent on having and fought her jockey until she finally just tired badly and trailed the field by some 21 lengths. It was a brutal performance for a horse sent off as the favorite in a 5 horse field.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Not a great deal of movement in the standings as you might have imagined given the rather low profile of many of the horses running this weekend. Oprah Winney missed a chance to move into 3rd or 4th in the Female Sprinter division when she ran just third in the Garland Of Roses Handicap. Instead she remained 5th but closed the gap on 4th ranked Pussycat Doll. Tough Tiz’s Sis also missed a chance to move up the 3yo Female rankings. She closed some ground on Dream Rush in 5th but did not pass her with just a second place finish. The action atop the TCR will likely remain more or less unchanged for the duration of the year.

Tip O’the Cap: Hats off to Somethinaboutlaura who recorded her 17th career victory from 30 starts and managed to become a millionaire. Not everyone is destined to become a G-1 winning champion and for Somethinaboutlaura even winning a graded stakes of any kind was seen as a goal reached by her connections. The vast majority of her starts have come in small stakes races in Northern California where winning a million dollars is quite a feat. So congratulations to her, she has been everything an owner or fan could want from a racehorse.

 As an aside I’d also like to tip my cap to Patrick at Handride for his look at the graded stakes conundrum. The ASGC’s decisions fail to make sense on so many levels and he accurately pinpoints yet another logical inconsistency.

KC Handicapping: The handicapping did not go overly well this week. Fishy Advice scratched out of the Tropical Turf so we were just left with 2 selections in 1 race. La Dolce Vita never landed a blow and was anonymous throughout. Redaspen ran a decent race to be third after encountering some trouble but she looked like she needed a race. She did not have the type of closing kick that would have seen her win with a clean trip. Next time out if she’s well spotted she might be worth a tilt again.

Not a great way to start the handicapping but it can’t get much worse than a 100% loss. Just to explain the data below the first line records the most recent weeks results and the bottom line keeps tabs on my performance overall. The first number listed is how many horses I’ve selected and that (minus the money retunred for winners) is how the ROI is caluculated. The number in brackets indicates how many races I’ve had selections in. In some cases like this weekend I’ll have more than 1 selection in a single race so that skews the winning percentage.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 2(1)-0-0-1 (-$4.00 -100.00% ROI)
Overall record: 2(1)-0-0-1 (-$4.00 -100.00% ROI)

A few of the races this weekend have me thinking.  Do horses lose their confidence after a string of losses?  Do they even know if they won or lost?  Do they care?

Two horses, Host and La Dolce Vita, have been losing races this year, but to very good horses.  Sometimes, they have been pretty close to some nice horses in their division.  Both were dropped down to a level where it looked like they could win this weekend.  Not only did they not win, they didn’t even come close.  They just ran with the pack.  Do some horses just run with the pack, no matter what the competition?  These two, and quite a few others I’ve seen, seem to support this notion.

What is interesting is that usually on their way up they could win races at this level.  So it’s not like they never won before.  It seems like running against tougher competition and losing time after time has either dulled their competitive edge or they have just become used to “running with the pack”.  I’ve always wondered if horses really even know if they won or lost a race, and even if they do, do they care if they won or lost?