1. Country Star–Just forget that she’s a filly and watch her run. This is your Derby winner. Frankel has never sent a filly to the Derby, but he has said this is the best two-year-old filly he’s ever had. She is bred to run all day and has been reminiscent of her sire, Empire Maker, with her wide, sweeping runs. The scary thing is her pedigree suggests this little party is just beginning. Hopefully, Frankel won’t blow it and will think outside the box with this talented filly. If he isn’t thinking Derby, he isn’t thinking with an open mind.
2. War Pass–it’s nearly impossible not to rank this speed-ball on top, and he is the perfect nemesis for Country Star, who likes to come from behind. Catch me if you can is his game and his 113 Beyer in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile is faster than last year’s Derby winner, Street Sense, ever ran. Stamina will be the question, but his pedigree for going 10 furlongs may be better than some think. His sire, Cherokee Run, was best known for winning the Breeder’s Cup Sprint, but also finished 2nd in the Preakness; don’t be so quick to toss that fact aside. As a sire, his biggest success so far has been the speedy filly Chilukki, but he also sired Sir Cherokee, who won the Arkansas Derby and was considered a threat to win the Derby before being scratched. Damsire is Mr. Prospector, known for speed but he has produced a router or two in his day, and has a decent AVD (average winning distance).
3. Pyro–he has chased War Pass three straight races, and so far has been merely a poor man’s Alydar. He hasn’t threatened War Pass at all. In fact, when stretched out to the longest race, War Pass beat him even easier than before. Is Pyro just a plodder who is the best of the rest, or a closer who will be a threat in the nine furlong prep races? The 105 Beyer he earned in the BC Juvenile says he will be a threat. That number would win the BC Juvy in most years.
4. Majestic Warrior–he’s been very good, and very bad, so his three-year-old debut should tell us which way the cards are going to fall with this one. He’s bred to go long so I’ll give him another chance.
5. Turf War–closed well going a mile and a sixteenth despite running in a bullring, which usually favors the front runners. Certainly seems to want a distance of ground and ran much better than I expected in the Delta Jackpot. Rather than begrudge him, I actually like a horse who proves me wrong, and he certainly did that.
6. Check It Twice–by Repent, he should like going a distance and looked like it in his last start, coming to life in the stretch to win going away. Class is the question as it was not exactly the toughest bunch he beat that day.
7. Kodiak Kowboy–although 3rd in the BC Juvy, he was beaten some 17 lengths, which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for huge things to come. Still, he beat all but two that day so he can’t be all bad. Posse isn’t my favorite sire for winning the Derby, but his damsire is Coronado’s Quest, so he will probably hold his own in the nine furlong prep races.
8. Colonel John–looks talented, but my worry, as always with anything from a “Tiz” line, is soundness. I’ve been proven right more often than I would like, so I hope this one can stay in training for a long time to come.
9. Z Humor–earned enough in the Delta Jackpot to already reserve a spot in the Derby, but certainly was outrun by a large margin on BC day versus War Pass and Pyro. Perhaps he didn’t like the track, but he still has a lot of improving to do to challenge either one of them.
10. Massive Drama–looked good in the Prevue beating Into Mischief but has much to prove off that 7f score. By Kafwain, out of a Slewacide mare (who is the broodmare sire of Derby winner Funny Cide), the pedigree is speedy but does have some stamina influence.
11. Tale of Ekati–I’ll give him one more chance. I’m not the most forgiving when it comes to these lists, so next out, he better deliver, or he’s out.
12. Anak Nakal–nice win last out but will need to improve to run with the big boys…and girl.