Money talks. And that’s why the Derby trail begins this weekend at, of all places, Delta Downs. The dust has settled from the BC Juvenile and War Pass has clinched the Eclipse for best two-year-old, but in a matter of weeks that will simply be what a three-year-old did last year. The $1,000,000 race has attracted a field of ten, including two that ran in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, and two more that are undefeated in three starts.
#4 Z Humor is the morning line favorite despite a 19 length drubbing on BC day at the hands of War Pass, but he was only beaten two a half lengths by Kodiak Kowboy for third. Before that, he earned a 104 Beyer going a mile in finishing third to War Pass and Pyro in the Champagne. Previous to that, he was third in the Sapling. For all his class, all he has in his win column is a maiden score. Perhaps he is a plodder who is happy to run with the pack. Still, it is hard to toss a horse whose lowest BRIS speed figure ever is a 92. I think he is most likely to finish second or third.
#6 Cave’s Valley is listed at 6-1 on the morning line, but I think will likely go off the favorite due to a 101 BRIS figure going the same distance in winning the Dover Stakes over Atoned. He improved several lengths that day and easily beat two horses he struggled to beat going one mile, Atoned and Cudjo. He’s fast, he finishes strong, but now he is tested for class. He’s the horse to beat.
#2 Golden Yank is the other undefeated colt, but doesn’t quite boast BRIS numbers as high as some of the others. He has a nice stalking style, has finished strongly, and won very easily, but he too is tested for class. I give him an outside chance, but think the test will be tougher for him than Cave’s Valley.
#3 Overextended is the other horse exiting the BC Juvy, where he was beaten 21 lengths in finishing 7th. But he was only beaten a little over two lengths by Z Humor, who is the morning line favorite. Blinkers go back on, but I’m not sure that will be a factor. He’s a consistent horse but doesn’t look fast enough to win here.
#7 Racecar Rhapsody is the most likely horse to come flying late and run down Cave’s Valley. So far, he hasn’t been quite fast enough, but he has shown nice closing kick and is likely to get a lively pace here with Betatron, Cudjo, Cave’s Valley and St. Joe all likely to show some early foot. Very dangerous here.
#1 Betatron has a nice 100 BRIS number last out, but that 6f win only shows he’s figured it out sprinting against weaker horses. Can he stretch that out to a mile and a sixteenth? His pedigree says he should be OK, but his past races show him struggling late more often than not. Might be worth a small flyer if the price is right, but iffy at best going this distance.
#5 Cudjo has been unable to hold off Cave’s Valley in two tries, and is getting further away. He might prefer 6-7 furlongs.
#8 St. Joeis sired by Trippi, and so far, has run like one. That means he’s fast and classy, but might prefer shorter.
#9 Turf War isn’t bad if you toss his last race, but since the other races were sprints and the last one was today’s distance, that’s hard to do. Perhaps he bounced and the rest could do him good, but I must pass.
#10 Take the Money was terrible when stretching out last time, although he’s bred to go a distance, he didn’t run like it; pass.
Cave’s Valley/Racecar Rhapsody on top
Z Humor, Overextended, Golden Yank underneath
Betatron on a few flyers with above.
December 6th, 2007 at 2:08 pm
The Speed Figures you’re quoting aren’t Beyers. They’re BRISnet figs. Cave’s Valleys figures are 91, 72 and 92.
Z Humor’s Beyer top is 97.
December 6th, 2007 at 4:44 pm
Sorry, thanks for the correction, Kennedy.
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