The Sugar Bowl
I’m going to lump on a rather obvious play in this race but I am fairly confident of success. Sok Sok is 2/1 and may actually present value because I think he should be odds on. He has shown a good deal of class even if he is only a second tier 2yo. There is no one of his class in this race and it’s the kind of event that ought to be meat and drink to him. I think he found his stamina stretched in the Iroquois and prior to that he ran a pair of races on the All Weather track at Presque Isle. He performed well there but his figures were a little lower. I chalk that up mostly to the fact that figures for Presque Isle should not have been made in the first place. It’s far too early to establish reliable figures from that track. So I just look at the apparent class from those races. I think sprinting in this kind of company is exactly what he wants.

Sok Sok

Bonapaw Stakes
I’m not sure what’s up with the morning line in this one. Stormin Baghdad is a pretty good horse and he might take to Turf. But handicapping 101 will tell you not to take a short price on a horse doing something for the first time. No Turf experience equals no support from me. I actually think quite a bit of Going Wild. This is the same Going Wild that Lukas used and abused through the Triple Crown trail. He was taken from D Wayne and given to Bret Calhoun who has coaxed a pair of second place finishes out of him including a narrow defeat to Stormin Baghdad. Going Wild actually does have a bit of form over the grass. Although he ran 5th it actually was a good effort during a time where he struggled to do anything well. I consider that a bit of hidden grass form and he should be the horse to beat in the lane. Staying in sync with my selection of the Canadian Sterwins last week I am also quite interested in another Woodbine based competitor Zetetic. The pace should be hot and Zetetic likes to have something to run at. He has proven himself to be quite an effective Turf sprinter in the allowance class. Now he’s got a chance to step it up. Malcom Pierce has done very well at the Fair Grounds so far and Zetetic could be a square price.

Zetetic
Going Wild

CashCall Futurity
This is a very difficult and confusing race. We really don’t know much about how good these horses really are. Instead of going through all the different scenarios I can foresee I think I’ll stick with my visual impressions of these horses. Since I don’t plan on betting the race anyway I’ll just rely on what I’ve seen on the video and my impressions of those runners. Colonel John has to be the horse to beat. I think he has Derby potential written all over him, he just needs to start winning some races in fast times. I adore his turn of foot and a burst like that can help a late runner get out of a lot of sticky situations. He will be the horse I’m cheering for primarily because I think he’s got a great future and I’d love to see that opinion confirmed. The horse I am second most impressed with is Eaton’s Gift. I find it curious that they’re running this Zayat horse in the same race as Massive Drama, another Zayat horse with speed and that they shipped all the way from Kentucky just to do so. I think this means that the talented but lazy Massive Drama will be taken off the pace and will work on perfecting his stalking technique. Eaton’s Gift was rumored to be a good one right from the start and I really like him at Keeneland. He justified my faith that day but blew me away with his manner of victory. He went straight to the front with ears pricked and would not let anyone by him. He seemed to love winging it on the lead and when he was asked in the lane he just skipped away from his rivals. He did the same at Churchill and while his times have not been great he has been extremely impressive to watch. I really have a hard time making an argument for him in this race. He is unlikely to get an easy lead and he might be intentionally sent as a rabbit. His stamina is questionable and his figures are pretty low. But I cant get over the way he’s looked in his last two so he’s one I’ll cheer for as well. Indian Sun is an interesting play coming off the Turf. He’s by Indian Charlie so I don’t know why he couldn’t handle this surface well. I think he’ll stay the distance easily which will help. He was not good enough to catch the Leopard last out but that was right on the back of a maiden win on the downhill course at Santa Anita. Going two turns around Hollywood is a totally different task he he looked very good while conceding a huge class edge to The Leopard. Those are my big 3 in terms of visual impression. A good number of others could win this race and it wouldn’t shock me but I’ll be rooting for this trio.

I struggle with writing Christmas Cards, once I get past Merry Christmas and my own name I’m usually at a loss for things to say. That may surprise some given the oft verbose nature of many of my entries in this space but I have always been more about facts, observations and opinions than emotional expression.

Despite this literary handicap in the spirit of Christmas I will attempt to convey some of the things I feel blessed to have received from racing this year.

It is so very easy for the dedicated race fan to get caught up in all the issues of racing. So many areas of this sport are operated in ways that seem to defy reason, and then of course there are the tragedies that shake us all. There always seems to be things to fix about this game and while I do advocate for several grand scale changes myself I think this is a good time to put that all on the back burner and salute the things that are truly good about racing, the gifts that racing gives us on an ongoing basis.

I’m sure you are all touched in different ways by this sport and I’d love to hear about them. Here are some of the gifts that racing has provided for me.

Hope - This is my favorite aspect of racing. The fact that there is always tomorrow, there is always one more race. There is always a yearling or juvenile just itching for the chance to do what they love. We’re also constantly provided with great stories of how individuals overcame the odds to achieve glory. Horse racing has a greater capacity to inspire hope among its patrons than any other sport in existence.

Beauty - This is where my punitive writing skills do my feelings the greatest injustice. How can one put to words the grace and beauty that the eye beholds. Horses themselves are beautiful creatures, horses in motion are more perfect still. “If God made anything more beautiful he kept it for himself” Unknown author.

Joy - There is nothing quite like the rush of seeing a horse you’ve backed financially, emotionally or both cross that wire in front. Especially if they’ve had to overcome the odds to do so. Deeper than that as well. I derive a good amount of joy simply from seeing others do things they love. I see this in the body language of the horses. They love it and it’s hard not to get caught up in that.

The Chance To See Greatness - I think the human race is naturally intrigued by even a hint of greatness. Racing yearly affords chances to see brilliance and greatness unfold. It does not always come about nor do we always appreciate it for what it is but the chance is ever present.

The Mental Challenge - I love to be challenged and racing is the ultimate mental challenge. There are a myriad of clues that point to the eventual answer some are obvious and some perceptible only to the trained eye. No one has completely mastered this giant puzzle and no one ever truly will but there is tons of enjoyment to be had in trying.

These are the qualities of racing that will always endure no matter how frustrated we get with the lack of changes or the seeming nonsense of changes that are implemented and no matter how often we’re beleaguered by tragedies. These are the gifts of racing. How lucky we are to receive them.

For the second year in a row we take off our hats to a lady, and specifically a young lady. Sealy Hill was named Horse of The Year just one year after Arravale won it as a 3yo filly as well. Sealy Hill fully deserved the award in my opinion. Cloudy’s Knight did have a higher TCR score but only just and Sealy hill was definitely more representative of the Canadian racing year. Cloudy’s Knight made the minimum amount of starts but was not really Canadian.

The TCR had another decent year in terms of predictive accuracy. It did not match last years performance of 9 of the 10 winners but all the champions this year were ranked at least second by the TCR in their division.

Horse of the Year: Sealy Hill (2nd)
Older Male: True Metropolitan (1st)
Older Female: Financingavailable (2nd)
Turf Male: Cloudy’s Knight (1st)
Turf Female: Sealy Hill (1st)
Sprinter: Financingavailable (2nd)
3yo Colt: Alezzandro (1st)
3yo Filly: Sealy Hill (1st)
2yo Colt: Kodiak Kowboy (1st)
2yo Filly: Dancing Allstar (2nd)

I think the most interesting result of the Sovereign Awards was that Leonnatus Anteas did not win the 3yo award. Instead it went to Alezzandro who was the top ranked TCR horse for that division and definitely had a better record this season. Leonnatus Anteas, though, was favored to win the award because of the general feeling that he is the best horse at Woodbine and he finished the year very strongly. I was pleasantly surprised that the voters looked past the reputations and got the right horse.

I think it’s a shame that Monashee did not manage an award but more credence will always be given to the races at Woodbine and she flopped badly in her only try in Toronto. Western horses are getting better and better and if things continue as they are I’ll bet we see some champions come from the west without having to prove themselves at Woodbine.

Weekend Overview: Calder does a fair bit for winter racing at the end of the calender year with their Grand Slam cards and racing fans were treated to yet another interesting day from Florida. Electrify and Paradise Dancer both took main track stakes at Calder and while neither is a true top class horse both deserve a nice victory now and then. But the two best horses in action this weekend both ran at Hollywood and Citronnade and Country Star put on a nice show for their fans.

Performance of the Week: It has to be Country Star. The Hollywood Starlet was at least as impressive as any 2yo race I’ve seen this year. She was fairly wide throughout but her trip was fairly non-descript. Even as they swung off the far turn she did necessarily look like the winner. Grace and Power was making a huge rally from the back and was the most eye catching runner at that stage but all at once the race was over. Grace and Power did continue her run and finish up powerfully but visually she appeared to slow down in comparison to Country Star who simply accelerated away and easily held her safe. The more we see of Country Star the more there is to be impressed about.

Flop of the Weekend: Soldier’s Dancer was stepping up in trip to 12f but his connections had to be very disappointed with the way he ran in the W.L McKnight. He never got in the running and looked nothing like the tiger he was in his last two starts. Perhaps he’s just tired after a long campaign or maybe it was just one of those days. At any race it was hugely disappointing from a horse who seemed to be getting better with each race.

TCR Mover’s and Shakers: Citronnade and Country Star both made some noise in their reepective divisions. Citronnade’s win in the Dahlia moved her from 3rd to 2nd in the Femal Turf division. It likely won’t be anough to get her an award since she is not a popular public choice but she has had a very fine year and led this division for much of the first half of the year. Country Star looks like an emerging star and has vaulted to 2nd place in the Two Year Old Female Division. Although she may arguably have more talent than Indian Blessing I think the ranking is correct in stating that she is less accomplished at this point.

Tip O’the Cap: This goes to Canadian Eugene Melnyk for his fantastic week. His excellent filly Sealy Hill was rewarded for her superb season with a trio of Sovereign awards including Horse of the Year. Melnyk himself took the top owner award and he even managed a stakes win at the Fair Grounds with Sterwins. I suppose his great week would also have include his Ottawa Senators going undefeated in their last five games.

KC Handicapping: Sterwins was bet down to 3/1 favoritism and won like he should have so while I was pleased with the result I wasn’t too happy to lose a few bucks on the price. BR’s Girl and Meribel continued with their losing ways. Both look like horses who lack the mental ability to win. The miss of the weekend was Redaspen in the La Prevoyante. Three weeks agi in this space I wrote that Redaspen was a great win bet next time out. But when I saw that she was lining up against Dalvina at a distance far beyond anything she had tried before I chickened out and had to watch her win nicely at 8/1.

Cumulative record of selected horses: 3(3)-1-0-1 (+$2.20 +36.67% ROI)
Overall record: 10(7)-1-1-4 (-$11.80 -59.00% ROI)

1. Country Star–Just forget that she’s a filly and watch her run.  This is your Derby winner.  Frankel has never sent a filly to the Derby, but he has said this is the best two-year-old filly he’s ever had.  She is bred to run all day and has been reminiscent of her sire, Empire Maker, with her wide, sweeping runs.  The scary thing is her pedigree suggests this little party is just beginning.  Hopefully, Frankel won’t blow it and will think outside the box with this talented filly.  If he isn’t thinking Derby, he isn’t thinking with an open mind.

2. War Pass–it’s nearly impossible not to rank this speed-ball on top, and he is the perfect nemesis for Country Star, who likes to come from behind.  Catch me if you can is his game and his 113 Beyer in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile is faster than last year’s Derby winner, Street Sense, ever ran.   Stamina will be the question, but his pedigree for going 10 furlongs may be better than some think.  His sire, Cherokee Run, was best known for winning the Breeder’s Cup Sprint, but also finished 2nd in the Preakness; don’t be so quick to toss that fact aside.  As a sire, his biggest success so far has been the speedy filly Chilukki, but he also sired Sir Cherokee, who won the Arkansas Derby and was considered a threat to win the Derby before being scratched.  Damsire is Mr. Prospector, known for speed but he has produced a router or two in his day, and has a decent AVD (average winning distance).

3. Pyro–he has chased War Pass three straight races, and so far has been merely a poor man’s Alydar.   He hasn’t threatened War Pass at all.  In fact, when stretched out to the longest race, War Pass beat him even easier than before.  Is Pyro just a plodder who is the best of the rest, or a closer who will be a threat in the nine furlong prep races?  The 105 Beyer he earned in the BC Juvenile says he will be a threat.   That number would win the BC Juvy in most years. 

4. Majestic Warrior–he’s been very good, and very bad, so his three-year-old debut should tell us which way the cards are going to fall with this one.  He’s bred to go long so I’ll give him another chance. 

5. Turf War–closed well going a mile and a sixteenth despite running in a bullring, which usually favors the front runners.  Certainly seems to want a distance of ground and ran much better than I expected in the Delta Jackpot.  Rather than begrudge him, I actually like a horse who proves me wrong, and he certainly did that.

6. Check It Twice–by Repent, he should like going a distance and looked like it in his last start, coming to life in the stretch to win going away.  Class is the question as it was not exactly the toughest bunch he beat that day.

7. Kodiak Kowboy–although 3rd in the BC Juvy, he was beaten some 17 lengths, which isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement for huge things to come.  Still, he beat all but two that day so he can’t be all bad.  Posse isn’t my favorite sire for winning the Derby, but his damsire is Coronado’s Quest, so he will probably hold his own in the nine furlong prep races. 

8. Colonel John–looks talented, but my worry, as always with anything from a “Tiz” line, is soundness.  I’ve been proven right more often than I would like, so I hope this one can stay in training for a long time to come. 

9. Z Humor–earned enough in the Delta Jackpot to already reserve a spot in the Derby, but certainly was outrun by a large margin on BC day versus War Pass and Pyro.  Perhaps he didn’t like the track, but he still has a lot of improving to do to challenge either one of them. 

10. Massive Drama–looked good in the Prevue beating Into Mischief but has much to prove off that 7f score.  By Kafwain, out of a Slewacide mare (who is the broodmare sire of Derby winner Funny Cide), the pedigree is speedy but does have some stamina influence.

11. Tale of Ekati–I’ll give him one more chance.   I’m not the most forgiving when it comes to these lists, so next out, he better deliver, or he’s out.

12. Anak Nakal–nice win last out but will need to improve to run with the big boys…and girl.

The stage is set for a breakout performance by two-year-old filly Country Star in the Starlet Stakes at Hollywood on Saturday.  Trained by Robert Frankel, who also trained her sire, Empire Maker, she has been working up a storm at Hollywood and looks primed to run her best race to date.  That won’t be easy as her last win was a breathtaking eight-wide run in the Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland.  Eighth early, and still fifth and four lengths back at the last call, she won going away by a length and finished like a filly that could run all day.  Not so surprising since her sire won the mile and a half Belmont Stakes. 

Her toughest test could come from Grace and Power, a filly who has run only on turf.  Her numbers are quite good and if it translates to synthetic, she could win this.  The other big threat is the new and improved Foxy Danseur.  She has turned it around in her last three starts, including a win last out at this distance on this track.  Perhaps her biggest downside is that her bad luck charm, Set Play is entered.  Foxy Danseur finished 3rd, 7th, and 8th in three tries against Set Play at shorter distances.   Was it the distance, the class, or has Fozy Danseur improved?  I think she has improved, while Set Play has gone the other way, tiring at the end in all three of her route races.  Her sire, Van Nistelrooy has an AWD (average winning distance) of only 6.2 furlongs so far.

Sunday Geisha looks like a decent play at a price, but only for a piece.  She has finished pretty well in her last two tries at this distance.  Spritely has never gone the distance but is 2 for 2 sprinting under Todd Pletcher.  She has the pedigree to go the distance with no problem, but her closing fractions have been a bit slow.  She’s a threat to to wire the field since both Country Star and Grace and Power are closers.   Spitely could get away from them and hang on.  Grace Anatomy is a talented filly who may be running further than she would like.  She has looked tired at the end of both her route races, which isn’t too surprising considering her sire is Aldebaran. 

Time Reveals all in another threat for a minor award at a good price with Talamao back in the saddle.  She’s never gone a distance but the pedigree says that won’t be a problem.  The Golden Noodle is another that is talented but may prefer shorter distances.   Like Grace Anatomy, it isn’t surprising considering the sire. 

Country Star -95

Grace and Power -94

Foxy Danseur-92

Sunday Geisha/Spritely-88

Grace Anatomy, Time Reveals All-87

Set Play, The Golden Noodle-86

Buddy Diliberto Memorial Handicap
The Fair Grounds is not a usual haunt for me but this race is unique in that it features form from two places that I am more familiar with, Kentucky and Woodbine. This is a pretty tough field for just $60k. I personally think a lot of Sterwins. He showed a lot of promise early on in his career but never seemed to reach the next level on the dirt. Since switching to the grass he’s been excellent. His loss last time out can be forgiven because of the ground. I think we’ll see the form that saw him finish just a length adrift of Cloudy’s Knight. He’s not typically a fast workhorse, but he recorded a bullet two works back. The last time he had a bullet was just prior to facing Cloudy’s Knight in the Sky Classic and that was his best career performance. He should get a nice trip just outside the speed. Ascertain is the main danger but I wouldn’t use him off that terrible race last time out.

Sterwins

Hollywood Race #5 (Sunday)
I have no idea how B R’s Girl is still a maiden. She was well thought of right from the start but has lost 5 races in a row. She has faced some wickedly tough company though. The big danger here is that this horse obviously has talent but has become mentally accustomed to losing. The reason I like her here is because of the big changes. She switches back surfaces, which often wakes horses up. She has changed barns and is now part of the Pletcher race winning empire and she gets blinkers off coming off the bench. If all those changes aren’t enough to shake her up then she has some major mental problems. I do expect, though, that Pletcher and Gomez will get the best from her. It should be an easy success.

B R’s Girl

Dahlia Handicap
The best race of the weekend. This race could have year end award ramifications. With a win Nashoba’s Key or Citronnade could conceivably toss their hats back into the ring with Precious Kitten and Lahudood for top Turf Female. This is a very good field despite the G-2 rating and shabby purse. There are several G-1 winners and almost all 12 entrants are at least Graded Stakes placed. I notice that there seems to be a good deal of pace this race. Citronnade is unlikely to be helped by that or her outside post position. She has been a win machine in California though. Nashoba’s Key is at a cross roads, if she wins again the Breeders Cup will look like an anomaly. If she loses people might start to think she’s primarily a polytrack horse or perhaps that she is a shade below top class. I personally think she could lose this race and still be a top class turf horse but I would love to see that tough winning mentality she had. She never won by great distances but it seemed inevitable in her races that she would win. She just seemed to be too good to lose. Her BC effort was not a bad one even if you don’t consider that it was the worst turf she will ever encounter. She was beaten 2 lengths for all the money and had a rough trip on the inside. The speed in this race should suit her style and I expect her to be very tough to beat. The one horse I might use against her is Meribel. Maybe I’m getting suckered into using a horse that is accustomed to losing but the pace is in her favor, she along with Black Mamba are the best closers in the race. I have always suspected that her talent would see her beat a group like this and Clement is extremely savvy with Turf horses going west. She’ll be running latest of all and may be able to ambush Nashoba’s Key right at the line before she has a chance to fight back.

Nashoba’s Key
Meribel

Below I have listed the TCR rankings for the Canadian racing season. One of the advantages of the TCR is that it can be used in any context. Its not tailored to America only. The scores are on average much lower because there are a dearth of graded stakes races in Canada. And not only that but a good amount of the major races are restricted to Canadian-breds, thus they are subject to further reduction. I have given unofficial championship status to certain ungraded Canadian races like the Queen’s Plate. Simply because that more accurately assesses the value of those races.

The way the TCR system is recommended to be used is to have the points standings be just 50% of the final consideration. The other 50% would be decided by vote. So the #1 ranked horse in every division would not necessarily be the Canadian TCR award winner. We would have to conduct a vote to determine that. However the rankings have proven to be fairly accurate in the past. Last year’s Sovereign Awards saw 9 of the 10 winners ranked a top their respective TCR division.

Overall Top 10 (Horse Of The Year)
Cloudy’s Knight - 204.44
Sealy Hill - 201.86
Jambalaya - 191.70*
Sky Conqueror - 140.00
True Metropolitan - 133.36
Alezzandro -100.58
Monashee - 88.52
Eccentric - 88.50
Kodiak Kowboy - 84.41
Mike Fox - 83.98

Older Male
True Metropolitan - 133.36
Test Boy - 59.75
Arthurlooksgood - 53.86
Car Keys - 53.04
Judiths Wild Rush - 45.56

Older Female
Monashee - 88.52
Financingavailable - 63.88
She’s Italian - 51.58
Arden Belle - 48.56
She’s Indy Money - 48.28

Turf Male
Cloudy’s Knight - 204.44
Jambalaya - 191.70*
Sky Conqueror - 140.00
Eccentric - 88.50
Marchfield - 76.90

Turf Female
Sealy Hill - 201.86
Essential Edge - 50.70
You Will Love Me - 31.86
The Niagara Queen - 31.30
Silky Smooth - 30.62

Sprinter
Bear Now - 74.08
Financingavailable - 63.88
Just Rushing - 58.28
She’s Italian - 51.58
She’s Indy Money - 48.28

3yo Male
Alezzandro - 100.58
Mike Fox - 83.98
Marchfield - 76.90
Footprint - 61.02
Jiggs Coz - 59.34

3yo Female
Sealy Hill - 201.86
Bear Now - 74.08
Dance To My Tune - 44.94
Saskawea - 44.42
Alpine Garden - 42.17

2yo Male
Kodiak Kowboy - 84.41
Deputiformer - 45.80
Mikayla’s Baby - 45.56
Bear Holiday - 38.74
Kesagami - 36.46

2yo Female
Littlemiss Allison - 45.18
Dancing Allstar - 34.86
Officer Cherrie - 24.20
Mrs. Began - 21.88
Victory Romance - 20.44

*Ineligible for voting consideration.

The awards are held later this week. It will be interesting to see how accurate the TCR is this year. The most interesting discrepancy is the fact that Leonnatus Anteas is not ranked among the top 5 for 3yo’s. He achieved just 47.84 because he skipped the Canadian Triple Crown and only had a single G-3 win and a G-3 placing to his credit. Although I agree with those who feel that he is the best horse on the grounds I don’t think his accomplishments merit a championship. I think his stablemate Alezzandro is a far better candidate.

Sealy Hill is ranked second overall but I would probably vote for her as Horse Of The Year. Cloudy’s Knight ran very well this year as well but Sealy Hill is all Canadian and she managed wins on two surfaces as well as sweeping the Triple Tiara. I think she is the most deserving of Horse of the Year.

As you’ve no doubt heard the Breeders’ Cup has added three new races to it’s menu. When the Breeders’ Cup announced that it was adding new races last year there was a far greater reaction, both positive and negative. Many fans and writers were firmly behind the idea while some were firmly against it. I think the majority of us saw both positives and negatives in the addition of the races and were willing to let it play out before passing judgement.

I was personally intrigued by the notion of making the season less Breeders Cup focused. One possible benefit of adding new races that I saw was that it may change the way voters view Breeders’ Cup winners with respect the Eclipse Awards. In recent times racing had become quite focused on the Breeders’ Cup as the sole determining factor for championship’s rendering the rest of the year meaningless. I do want to see the whole year given it’s due and while I think the Breeders’ Cup Classic is the single most important race of the year I don’t think that it outweighs two G-1 races like the Whitney and the Santa Anita Handicap on it’s own. The thought was that voters looking to crown the Champion Older horse may not be simply looking for the Classic winner, now the Dirt Mile winner might have some claims.

It was a nice theory but in practice this has had little effect. Part of that was due to the fact that the Graded Stakes Committee refused to give the new Breeders’ Cup race G-1 status. Clearly creating a two tier Breeders’ Cup. The established races were the “real” Breeders’ Cup and the races held on Friday seemed more like under card supporting races. If anything the addition of the new Breeders’ Cup races did more to harm racing throughout the year than help it. More horses were attracted to run in the Breeders’ Cup and given the preferred preparation methods of trainers this meant that stakes races all over the country lost top class contenders because the goal was to “be fresh for the Breeders’ Cup”. It is still theoretically possible that the Dirt Mile for instance will take some of the focus off the Classic in terms of year end awards but the effect on the rest of the calender is still the same but to a greater degree. More horses will be campaigned with the Breeders’ Cup specifically in mind and the result will be less competing prior to the Breeders’ Cup.

As I sought to understand why the Breeders’ Cup has decided to take this road I looked carefully at the statements being made by those currently in charge. Statements like “our goal is to reach $200 million in handle by 2010″ and “These new races also continue our mission in providing more opportunities for horsemen to compete at the highest levels over the two-days of the Championships.”

I realize that we as fans, or at least I, see the Breeders’ Cup in a totally different way than the board of directors and particularly CEO Greg Avioli. It seems as though the goal of the Breeders’ Cup is not what it used to be. When John Gaines came up with the concept of the Breeders’ Cup it was supposed to be an event where all potential champions met on the same track on the same day. It was to be the Super Bowl or World Series of horse racing. Implying that only the best of the best would be on showcase.

I feel that Greg Avioli has led the Breeders’ Cup away from that vision. The goal now is to increase handle not the quality of the racing product and obviously the easiest way to increase handle is to have more races. Since when was a championship day about “providing more opportunities for horsemen to compete at the highest level”? Shouldn’t a true championship be exclusive? Shouldn’t the bulk of the efforts be geared towards attracting the actual best horses on the planet? The theory that more racing equals more handle is not even a sound one but it seems to be the course that the Breeders’ Cup is pursuing. In their statement they mention wanting to make the Breeders’ Cup a bigger entertainment product for the fans, the sponsors and television. Notably missing from the mission statement is a commitment to benefiting racing, the sport itself.

I suppose we knew this already, the different factions in racing are primarily concerned with enlarging their own piece of the pie and they care very little about what benefits the sport itself. It’s just sad to see it once again put into practice.

As for the specific implementation of the races themselves it seems like the ideas were rushed and half baked. Three new races have been added and none of them have true divisional status in North America. There are no awards to give out for the best 2yo Turf Filly, or Dirt Stayer and although the Turf Sprint division does exist worldwide it does not really exist in North America, beyond the listed stakes race level.

The Dirt Marathon is not even a marathon and the distance of 12f is nearly an impossible one for many of the tracks in North America to host. I believe I’m correct in saying that there are no Graded Stakes aside from the Belmont Stakes that are run at 12f on the dirt. Apparently racing secretaries have pledged to start carding a few more distance races to serve as preps but let’s be honest. The Dirt Marathon will be full of claimers and allowance horses. The favorites for the event will be the allowance level horses who happen to win the newly carded $50k overnight stakes races. Any horse who is good enough to run at a high level over 12f on the dirt will attempt to win the Classic which offers 10 times the money.

Europeans are not going to be attracted to this race because 12f is a middle distance in Europe and Turf is clearly the preferred surface. They’ve already got a 12f Turf race so the only way to attract overseas stayers like Yeats and Septimus is to make the race a true stayers affair, perhaps over the distance of 2 miles. Even then the fact that it’s on dirt will not bring the Europeans over in numbers.

I’m all for encouraging long distance racing in North America, but this is putting the cart before the horse. Use the money to create a division first. Then when you do have the basis to create a championship race don’t make it’s value a measly $500k. The message is clear, there isn’t any value in sticking around for Dirt Marathon. It’s far better to be a moderately useful 2yo on the grass. You’re playing for double the money and it’s not nearly as difficult to get there.

It makes sense once you understand the context of the Breeders’ Cup mission of getting more handle and providing an opportunity for everyone to run. But for those of us stuck in the past still thinking that the Breeders’ Cup is a championship event we have to ask. Which “highest level” horses were not at the Breeders’ Cup last year that you think you can attract with the new races this year?

The answer is that there were virtually no healthy G-1 level horses who skipped the BC because they could not find a suitable race. There simply aren’t more than 100 G-1 level horses in America. In fact there are probably only around 50 or 60 and the Breeder’s Cup already attracts more than 100 horses with its premier eight races. The new races boast $5.5 million dollars in purses. Instead of throwing that money at turf maiden race winners or allowance class geldings how about using that money to subsidize championship level horses who happen not to be nominated to the Breeders Cup? How about using the money to entice foreign participation like Dubai, Japan and Hong Kong do?

You want to increase handle? Then realize that most casual bettors lose money, so by day two of the Breeders Cup their wallets will be lighter and they won’t be able to bet as heavily on the main races. How about raising handle by attracting bigger bettors? Since most of the huge bettors on earth are based in Europe and Asia, use your money to attract hometown horses that these bettors will want to back. The Japanese in particular travel in droves to the Arc d’Triomphe when they have a horse with a shot and they bet heavily because betting heavily is a part of their current culture. The handle in Asia is immense, find a way to get those people attending the Breeders’ Cup.

These suggestions are far from perfect but they are at least aimed increasing the quality of the existing races instead of diluting the overall quality of the event by attracting horses of ever decreasing quality. They are aimed at preserving the original vision and intent of the Breeders’ Cup. Although the Breeders’ Cup in its original form was far from flawless, in it’s inception it was created with the good of the sport at heart. The intent and vision that Mr. Gaines had for this event is something that should be respected and upheld. Mr. Avioli instead has decided to put that vision to rest. The sport is the poorer for it.

Turf War stamped himself as a potential Derby horse for 2008 with a come-from-behind dead-heat with favored Z Humor in the Delta Jackpot.  He came from way back early and finished like a horse who will appreciate even more distance.  This race also showed marked improvement over any race he has run, which is a good sign this time of year.   He earned a 96 speed figure as did Z Humor and third place Golden Yank.   Z Humor surprisingly ran second early and it paid off for him.   A good race from him but probably not that much improvement off his BC Juvy, he just faced a much easier field here.  Racecar Rhapsody closed to get fourth but didn’t show as much improvement as one would like to see right now.  Overextended once again lived up to his name as he seems to be perpetually ambitiously placed.   That said, he still did OK in the race, once again beating more horses than beat him, but it would be nice to see him placed where he can actually win. 

The filly Lovely Isle earned a 101 Beyer going 6f at Aqueduct in an eye-popping 16 length allowance win and ran much faster than a stakes for two-year-old fillies the same day.  She was promptly sold to Robert Frankel. 

Barrier Reef blew the final turn at Aqueduct but still broke his maiden quite easily with a very green late run.  Was 5-6 lengths back at the last call and still won.  The final time was nothing special for a one mile race, but not bad for the actual distance he ran.  Sometimes this happens to young horses who are too fast for their own good.  Curlin did this early in his career.