1-Lavender Sky–she keeps improving and has gradually worked her way from a 65 beyer in her debut to an 86 last time out. She closes well, but if she can’t get up in a 68k stakes or optional claiming races, why would she here? Possibly in her favor is that all those races were on turf, so the switch to poly could move her up. Seems improving but a question mark at best.
2-Sugar Shake–at first glance she looks so much classier than the filly we just discussed, but handicapping sometimes reveals some interesting things. Lavender Sky’s last Beyer, 86, is right there with Sugar Shake’s last four of 90, 90, 78, and 87. On the plus side, she was facing much tougher company than Lavender Sky, and is also returning to the distance where she last scored back-to-back wins with Beyers of 100 and 95. However, those did come on dirt and her one race on poly at Keeneland, she faded to 4th in the Spinster. Today, though, she faces a weaker field. Pace will determine her fate and it looks like Romancing Diane and Tough Tiz’s Sis will keep her company early. The pace looks to be moderate, not fast or slow. That should help her chances at this distance.
3-Sohdol–she has shown a few flashes on talent but mostly it came when running 2nd in allowance or Grade 3 company. Her last win came in May of 2006 in an optional claiming race. She did get a 2nd last out switching from turf to synthetic, and Drysdale does train, but she seems to have a history of being ambitiously placed and is once again.
4-Romance Is Diane–her last race Beyer (99) is the highest in the field, and that could be telling, even if it did come against weak company. A change in running style saw her wiring the field, which she hadn’t done since she broke her maiden, and perhaps they just should have stuck with that original running style. Her last three efforts of running 8th, 9th, and 10th early resulted in finishes of 8th, 3rd, and 2nd, which wouldn’t be so bad except those results came in ungraded stakes company. She couldn’t even win those races? Was this the same filly who won three races in a row capped off by a Grade 1 win in the Starlet at two? Taking the rest of September, and all of October seemed to do her a world of good as she recorded a 99 Beyer going this same distance on the new Santa Anita surface. She won the Starlet on the then new Hollywood surface last year. Given her success last out, I’d think they will stick to going to the front which could result in a faster pace than expected. Still, at this distance, she just last showed she can go 22 4-5 early and still win going away. Now, the question is, can she do it against Grade 1 winners?
5-Tough Tiz’s Sis–well, speak of the devil. Baffert’s bullet queen is working lights out as usual and looks ready to roll at her favorite distance. She bombed on BC day but perhaps she didn’t care for the slop. Before that, she ran 6th, then 3rd, then 1st in Grade 1’s, capped off by the win in the Lady’s Secret going this distance, on synthetic, defeating BC runner-up Hystericalady. She is 1 for 1 on this track, and 4 for 4 at this distance, and will probably live up to her name and be very tough to beat here.
6-Fonce De–she didn’t run in very classy races in France, but was very consistent the second half of last year. Her debut here was OK, not terrible but nothing to write home about. Some hope, but looks like a tough task.
7-Grain of Truth–I like this British invader a bit better as she scored an 89 Beyer in her second race here, and won over Keeneland’s surface. She also won over polytrack in Britain, so she’s 2 for 2 on synthetic surface. She appears to be a stalker so she should stay closer than many Euro’s tend to, and I think that increases her chances. Her downside is the same as the French filly: the company she has run in overseas isn’t that great, she has never run in even a Group 3 level race. This a pretty tough field, but I can see her being a surprise factor.