My Charmer Handicap
I think race has shaped up as a very fair contest. Most of the entrants have a shot at victory and one could make a case for that all the different running styles have a fair chance. I personally think the pace will be solid and that Bayou’s Lassie will be passed late as she has been routinely this year. Annabill should keep the pressure on from a close stalking position but I’m not convinced of her Turf class. Clearly she can run on the surface but can she run in this company is the question. If you’re looking at class then clearly La Dolce Vita is the horse to play. She spends most of her time running against horses like Safari Queen, Hostess, Roshani and Honey Ryder. When she has stepped down in company this year she has won. Including a minor stakes at Calder earlier this year. La Dolce Vita is at the mercy of the pace but with the speed we have in here she looms as the horse to beat in my mind. J’ray is a questionable horse to me, she has not really run well since March and I’m not going to take a favorite who is cold like that. La Dolce Vita has not won since the spring either but she has been running well against far better horses. The horse I will use along with and maybe over La Dolce Vita is Redaspen. I’m not sure that I endorse the trainer change but Baker has not yet proven that she can’t train so I’ll assume it’s business as usual. Redaspen has some hidden class and is a serious talent on firm ground. She is 5 for 8 on firmish courses and has never been out of the frame. She has won 2 of her last 3 starts and her loss came at the hands of Karen’s Caper who is worlds above these horses and who set a course record in that race. Redaspen’s best race is definitely good enough it’s just a matter of whether or not she’s fit enough to run her best race off the shelf. I would also only include Redaspen is the ground is firm.

Redaspen
La Dolce Vita

Tropical Turf Handicap
Like the My Charmer this is a very wide open race. I think you could go 5 deep and still not have the winner so I’m just going to choose one direction and stick with it. That direction for me is Fishy Advice. I do think many others have strong cases, most notably Minister’s Joy who loves the course and will appreciate a return to the grass and Go Between who finally seems to be rounding back into the form that made him a crack turf horse as a 3yo. But I’m not sure it’s a good risk reward to take several horses for the win when I could also justify backing Host, Ballast and National Captain. Fishy Advice comes into the race off a great win in the Knickerbocker where he beat the progressive Thorn Song. That will definitely affect his price but I’m still hoping for something around 5/1. Fishy loves the distance of 9f and many of his recent defeats were due to the distance. He was legitimately terrible in the Fourstardave but I can forgive him of that. He was just coming off a race that was far too long for him. Obviously Donk felt in retrospect that it took something out of him because he put him on the shelf. He looked good in the Cliffhanger but would have benefited from an extra furlong and a more patient ride. He got that in the Knickerbocker and won nicely. He does rely on a good pace in front of him since changing his style this year but I think he’ll get it behind Giant Wrecker.

Fishy Advice

1-Lavender Sky–she keeps improving and has gradually worked her way from a 65 beyer in her debut to an 86 last time out.  She closes well, but if she can’t get up in a 68k stakes or optional claiming races, why would she here?  Possibly in her favor is that all those races were on turf, so the switch to poly could move her up.  Seems improving but a question mark at best.

2-Sugar Shake–at first glance she looks so much classier than the filly we just discussed, but handicapping sometimes reveals some interesting things.  Lavender Sky’s last Beyer, 86, is right there with Sugar Shake’s last four of 90, 90, 78, and 87.  On the plus side, she was facing much tougher company than Lavender Sky, and is also returning to the distance where she last scored back-to-back wins with Beyers of 100 and 95.  However, those did come on dirt and her one race on poly at Keeneland, she faded to 4th in the Spinster.  Today, though, she faces a weaker field. Pace will determine her fate and it looks like Romancing Diane and Tough Tiz’s Sis will keep her company early.  The pace looks to be moderate, not fast or slow.  That should help her chances at this distance.

3-Sohdol–she has shown a few flashes on talent but mostly it came when running 2nd in allowance or Grade 3 company.  Her last win came in May of 2006 in an optional claiming race.  She did get a 2nd last out switching from turf to synthetic, and Drysdale does train, but she seems to have a history of being ambitiously placed and is once again.

4-Romance Is Diane–her last race Beyer (99) is the highest in the field, and that could be telling, even if it did come against weak company.  A change in running style saw her wiring the field, which she hadn’t done since she broke her maiden, and perhaps they just should have stuck with that original running style.  Her last three efforts of running 8th, 9th, and 10th early resulted in finishes of 8th, 3rd, and 2nd, which wouldn’t be so bad except those results came in ungraded stakes company.  She couldn’t even win those races?  Was this the same filly who won three races in a row capped off by a Grade 1 win in the Starlet at two?  Taking the rest of September, and all of October seemed to do her a world of good as she recorded a 99 Beyer going this same distance on the new Santa Anita surface.  She won the Starlet on the then new Hollywood surface last year.  Given her success last out, I’d think they will stick to going to the front which could result in a faster pace than expected.  Still, at this distance, she just last showed she can go 22 4-5 early and still win going away.  Now, the question is, can she do it against Grade 1  winners? 

5-Tough Tiz’s Sis–well, speak of the devil.  Baffert’s bullet queen is working lights out as usual and looks ready to roll at her favorite distance.  She bombed on BC day but perhaps she didn’t care for the slop.  Before that, she ran 6th, then 3rd, then 1st in Grade 1’s, capped off by the win in the Lady’s Secret going this distance, on synthetic,  defeating BC runner-up Hystericalady.  She is 1 for 1 on this track, and 4 for 4 at this distance, and will probably live up to her name and be very tough to beat here.

6-Fonce De–she didn’t run in very classy races in France, but was very consistent the second half of last year.  Her debut here was OK, not terrible but nothing to write home about.  Some hope, but looks like a tough task.

7-Grain of Truth–I like this British invader a bit better as she scored an 89 Beyer in her second race here, and won over Keeneland’s surface.  She also won over polytrack in Britain, so she’s 2 for 2 on synthetic surface.  She appears to be a stalker so she should stay closer than many Euro’s tend to, and I think that increases her chances.  Her downside is the same as the French filly: the company she has run in overseas isn’t that great, she has never run in even a Group 3 level race.  This a pretty tough field, but I can see her being a surprise factor. 

For those who don’t know me my name is Jared Kennedy and I’ve been a member of Thoroughbred Champions since 2001. I have been blogging on my own personal site Kennedy’s Corridor for just over a year now and I plan to operate this blog in much the same way. Not that my other blog is a raving success but from responses I’ve received from the handful of readers I think it works quite well. Being from a supportive family of 11 makes it easy to find a handful of readers willing to give a good review :) Anyway most of the content from Kennedy’s Corridor will be mirrored here, except for all the stuff I pack on top the sidebar like my ranking system.

 I thought I’d give you all a brief overview of some of the things I’ll be covering.

An overriding constant on this blog will be my ranking system called the Thoroughbred Championship Rankings (TCR). Basically it’s a point system that attempts to accurately assess the accomplishments of horses and assemble them into rankings that could be used as a sort of pro-tem standings that fans could easily follow during the year. So when I mentioned the “TCR” that is what I’m referring to.

Just now we’re gearing up for the 2nd annual TCR Awards where the point system and your votes are melded together to crown unofficial champions. We had a good response last year but I’m hoping the increased exposure will get even more voters out this year.

The Derby, Saratoga and The Breeders Cup are three events that will get a lot of attention here as well.

For the Derby we’ll be keeping a weekly Top 10 list as well as a regular dose of statistics. Statistics are something that we’ll cover a fair bit here. Some are irrelevant and some are brilliant but my hope is that you’ll find them all interesting. Following statistics blindly is not always a good bet but they are good to consider when making handicapping decisions.

Every Friday we will also offer handicapping analysis and selections. We won’t highlight specific bets or wagering amounts. Just assume that every selection has a $2 win bet on their nose. One thing I believe strongly in is keeping score. It’s no good giving advice on a continual basis if your readers have no idea if your advice is valuable at all.

On Monday I always spend the day reviewing the happenings of the weekend in my own special way. This includes score-keeping for my handicapping and updating the TCR standings as well as looking at some of the most interesting races and race news from the weekend.

From Tuesday to Thursday you’ll get a mixture of statistics, commentary and prognostication. Whatever happens to strike my fancy. Lists of all time greats, watch lists and racing opinion generally. One thing you won’t find much of here is updates and opinion on many industry issues. This blog will be focused on racing itself.

I hope you enjoy this and all the other blogs at Thoroughbred Champions. If you have anything you’d like to add or any questions feel free to post a comment or even start a topic in the TBC Racing Forum where we can all chime in.

Hi, everyone.  I am Matt Converse and I will be blogging about horse racing, mostly on the handicapping end with a big slant towards picking the winner of the 2008 Kentucky Derby.   I love following the two-year-olds into their three-year-old year and trying to figure out who are the contenders and who are just pretenders.   The last two years, my #3 and #1 ranked horses at this time of year ended up winning the Kentucky Derby, Barbaro and Street Sense.  Street Sense was an easy pick as he won the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile in impressive fashion and won the Eclipse for top two-year-old.  Barbaro was a trickier pick as we was mainly just a good turf horse and many doubted he would even point towards the Derby.  His sire was Dynaformer and that signaled to me he would like dirt as well.  An interesting trend in the Dynaformers is that, coincidence or not, his daughters seem to excel most on turf, and his sons seems to excel most on dirt.  Distance is seldom a problem with Dynaformers, and that gave a talented horse like Barbaro a big edge over many of today’s speed-influenced breed.   Pedigree is the single most overlooked aspect of picking a Kentucky Derby winner.  

Its always interesting to have a look around and try and pick out a few horses who ran this year that might have an impact next year. There is little point in mentioning the obvious horses like War Pass, Curlin, and Rags To Riches. It would actually be newsworthy if you thought they wouldn’t be big time contenders next year. I’m also not going to spend time on the possible Derby candidates, I’ll start my Derby top 10 list next week.

Here is a list of some overlooked horses who I think might have a big impact on their division next year.

Older Horse
Daaher - He is no underdog anymore he may in fact fall into the category of obvious picks after his huge win the Cigar Mile but I included him here because I think he is going to do far better than just have a “good” year. In my mind this is the 2008 Horse of the Year in waiting. He has all the tools one could hope for and it will be a shock to me every time he loses from here on out. His campaign will be disrupted by a trip to Dubai but hopefully that experience does not take too much out of him.

Leonnatus Anteas - If I started with an obvious horse then this is an off the wall selection. Some readers may have no idea who he even is. To save you some digging he is a Canadian bred son of Stormy Atlantic who was the Canadian 2yo champion and will possibly be the 3yo champ as well. The Breeders Cup Classic will be run on an All Weather surface for the first time ever in 2008. Now who is exactly is the best All Weather route horse in the nation? Student Council? Tiago? I submit that it might be Leonnatus Anteas with another year’s maturity under his belt. He has an explosive turn of foot and is very consistent, he has also run some very nice figures on Polytrack that indicate that he could run with the best out there.

Ketchikan - I loved him in the buildup to the Derby, I thought he had the potential to be the very best. He fell out of the spotlight with an injury that has kept him on the sidelines until now. Watch for him to come through many of the minor stakes races at the Fair Grounds before trying out the big boys in the east. Similar to Mineshaft’s campaign. He had very impressive speed around two turns as a 3yo and speed like that is a huge weapon on the handicap circuit.

Turf Male
Bold Hawk - If you saw his race in the Hollywood Derby this will come as no surprise. He did not get clear running until late and he closed stoutly. This is a big bodied horse who will benefit from time to develop. Toner knows how to campaign a top level Turf horse and what I love most about Bold Hawk is that he will run all day long. A big change from many of the Americans who are stretched to the max at 12f.

Champs Elysees - Dansili, Banks Hill, Heat Haze, Cacique and Intercontinental all come from the same remarkable mare Hasili. All of them were G-1 quality horses and some were even champions. Champs Elysees is the latest Hasili offspring to hit the American shores and despite his patchy European record he may be a monster among American opposition. He was improving towards the end of his 4yo season with Fabre and it would not shock me if he kicked it into another gear under Frankel. Being good enough to run second in a G-1 in Europe usually means you’ll win your fair share here. Not to mention the tremendous track record of his family and connections.

Inca King - He is my early pick for best Turf miler. He’s got great speed but in his last few starts he’s been learning to rate and come from off the pace. Not unlike Kip Deville who was very speedy as a 3yo but was fine tuned to become the best miler in the nation. Inca King has the tools to duplicate that feat.

Turf Female
Rosinka - It may have escaped a few people notice that this was a very difficult horse to get past in 2007. Royal Highness at her peak couldn’t get by and Lahudood barely managed it. Injury kept her out of the Breeders Cup but you know that Graham Motion is a master at keeping his Turf horses going at a high level for years on end. Rosinka is good enough to fill the void left by Film Maker.

Sprinter
Idiot Proof - Obvious pick again but I think Idiot Proof will be the dominant sprinter all year long. Even when Fabulous Strike comes back. Idiot Proof is brilliantly fast but does not need the lead. The BC is held at his home track and all year long I think the race will look like his to lose.

Divine Park - A bit of a forgotten horse, he’s undefeated in 3 starts for McLaughlin and is capable of sprinting or going a mile. He was still very unprofessional when he saw him last
but horses like CP West and Street Magician could not handle him even though he had trouble running straight. Look for him in races like the Carter and Met Mile.

3yo Filly
Backseat Rhythm - This filly has impressed me with her consistency around two turns and the competition she’s faced. I love horses who improve as the distance increases and Backseat Rhythm went from barely useful to one of the best 2yo’s in the nation with a step up in trip. The form from her maiden has worked out superbly with Country Star and Mushka both winning stakes races. Although she has lost twice to Indian Blessing there is no shame in losing to the 2yo champion. Her ability to come from off the pace will put her in a good position next year.

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